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ASSET PLAY SCORECARDBEST INVESTMENTS OF THE YEAR & THE FUTURE
tobyyeabsley@vesselsvalue.com
Toby Yeabsley – Head Analyst
• 2017 Valuation Winners and Losers
• Market Assessment – Asset plays and a look forward
WHAT I WILL BE TALKING ABOUT
WHERE WE ARE
ESTABLISHED2010
4 OFFICESWorldwide
PEOPLE130 (from 4 in 2010)
WHO WE WORK WITH
SUBSCRIBERS350+ companies
USERS2,000+
42% Banks & Funds
37% Shipowners & Operators
21% Professional Services
WINNERS AND LOSERS
TOP 3 VALUE PERFORMERS 12 MONTH
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016 Jul-2016 Jan-2017 Jul-2017 Jan-2018
Valu
e U
SD
Million
CAPESIZE 5 YO (Size: 180000) PANAMAX CONT 5 YO (Size: 4250) HANDY CONTAINER 5 YO (Size: 1750)
$24.02
$11.38
$9.27
$15.39
$35.88
12 MONTH INCREASE
49%CAPESIZE
63%HANDY CONT.
66%PMAX CONT.
$18.50
BOTTOM 3 VALUE PERFORMERS 12 MONTH
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18
Valu
e U
SD
million
NEW PANAMAX CONT 5 YO (Size: 13000) FULLY PRESS LPG 5 YO (Size: 3500) AHTS (Small) 5 YO (Size: 5200)
$71.12
$9.45
$6.43
$8.37
$63.88-10%NEW PMAX
-11%FULL PRESSLPG
-43%AHTS SMALL
12 MONTH INCREASE
$3.68
OBSERVED SHORT TERM ASSET PLAYS
Ex-AS Magnolia – Panamax Container Ship 4,380 TEU, Built – 2009, Daewoo
$6.0
$8.8 $14.8
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
July, 2017 November, 2017
mn U
SD
AS Magnolia Profit in Red
OBSERVED SHORT TERM ASSET PLAYS
Ex-AS Mariana – Panamax Container Ship 4,380 TEU, Built – 2010, Daewoo
$5.4
$9.4$14.8
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
July, 2017 November, 2017
mn
USD
AS Mariana Profit in Red
OBSERVED SHORT TERM ASSET PLAYS
Ex-Chavin Queen – Supramax Bulk Carrier 51,200 DWT, Built – 2009, Imabari
$10.0
$2.5
$12.5
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
January, 2017 November, 2017
mn
USD
Chavin Queen Profit in Red
OBSERVED SHORT TERM ASSET PLAYS
$10.5
$3.5
$14.0
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
January, 2017 January, 2018
mn U
SD
Federal Franklin Profit in Red
Ex-Federal Franklin– Supramax Bulk Carrier 55,300 DWT, Built – 2008, Oshima
MARKET ASSESSMENT
MEDIAN VALUES
3%
0%
-20%
-1%-2%
-28%
-2%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
Cape (180K) Panamax BC(80K)
Handy BC(30K)
VLCC (320K) MR2 (50K) Post PanamaxCon (7,000
TEU)
Feedermax(1,100 TEU)
Current Market Value vs Historical Median (1992-Present)
HANDY BULKERS
HANDY VALUES
HANDY VALUES
HIGHEST VALUE $27.54M
HANDY VALUES
LOWEST VALUE $4.97M
HANDY VALUES
SOLD AT $6.35MTO CLIPPER
HANDY VALUES
SOLD AT $10.10MTO PACIFIC BASIN
HANDY VALUES
80% INCREASE
HANDY ASSET VALUE CYCLE
HANDY FORECAST
FORECAST VS. ACTUAL PERFORMANCE
HANDYSIZE FLEET PROFILE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Num
ber
of Ship
s
Handysize Fleet Profile
Live - Scrap Live - Value On Order
HANDY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
2400
2450
2500
2550
2600
2650
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
Jan MarMay Jul SepNov Jan MarMay Jul SepNov Jan MarMay Jul SepNov Jan MarMay Jul SepNov
2014 2015 2016 2017
Liv
e V
essels
Ton M
iles b
n D
WT-N
M
Month
Supply and Demand Growth
Ton Miles Live Vessels
HANDY SUPPLY AND DEMAND
ORDERBOOK
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
CAPESIZE PANAMAXBULKER
HANDYBULKER
VLCC POSTPANAMAX
CONT
FEEDERMAX MR2 Tanker
Perc
ent
of O
uts
tandin
g O
rderb
ook
Outstanding Orderbook as a % of DWT or TEU
POST-PANAMAX CONTAINERSHIPS
POST-PANAMAX VALUES
POST-PANAMAX VALUES
HIGHEST VALUE $86.2M
POST-PANAMAX VALUES
LOWEST VALUE $27.01M
POST-PANAMAX VALUES
LOWEST VALUES EVER
POST-PANAMAX VALUES
SOLD AT $27MTO CMA CGM
POST-PANAMAX CYCLE
POST-PANAMAX FORECAST
POST-PANAMAX SUPPLY
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Num
ber
of Ship
s
Post Panamax Fleet Profile
Number Equal to Scrap Value Current Fleet On Order
+44 (0) 203 026 5555
info@vesselsvalue.com
vesselsvalue.com
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