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Automated Downscaling in Fire Weather . Incident report. Fills in the small scales. Photo courtesy W. (Ruddy) Mell. Regional scale data. LAPS/STMAS. Fine scale forecast. Downscaling. Fire Weather Research. Systems Research and Development - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Automated Downscaling in Fire Weather
Incident report
Regional scale data
LAPS/STMAS
Downscaling
Fine scale forecast
Photo courtesy W. (Ruddy) Mell Fills in the small scales
Systems Research and Development - FX-Net (Ingests fire-specific data such as NESDIS fire products) - Gridded FX-Net used by USFS, BLM, NIFCModeling Research Project Management for - collaborative fire behavior and fire weather coupled model research (NIST, NCAR, NOAA) - Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)
- observations in the fire environment (NOAA, NASA, CU)
Program Development - NOAA/OAR /NWS Fire Weather Research Initiative - NSF Science and Technology Center Proposal (CU, USFS, NIST)
Fire Weather Research
Range of Scales & Multiple Models
4
regional
community /landscape
neighborhood /stand
basic fuel elements
NOAA/GSD WRF-Chem (LES mode)
NOAA/GSD Downscaling
NIST Level Set Firespread (faster than real time)
NIST-WFDS Fire Behavior (slower than real time)
NOAA FireWea 11/9/10
105 ----------104 m------------- 103 m-----------102 m -----------10 m ---------1 m --- 10-2 m
DOWNSCALING in SCHEMATIC DATA FLOW
Data Ingest
Intermediatedata files
GSI
Model prep
FORECAST MODEL
Verification
Analysis Scheme
Downscaling can work as a stand alone module
from background GSI or other
applications such as Fire wx.
Downscaling is also an integral part of variational LAPS
(STMAS).
Data Background (or cycled forecast)Observations
Standalone downscaling
module
LAPS Variational LAPS (with downscaling)
A example: Four Mile Canyon Fire, Boulder, CO (6 Sept. 2010)
• No surface OBS in Four Mile Canyon;
• Few OBS over the higher terrain;
• Observed wind over complex terrain is known to be unreliable
• How to evaluate?
LAPS 1km wind Analysis, 6 Sept. 2010, 22UTC
Example of Downscaling: Four Mile Canyon Fire
Initial input at 8km resolution
Surface U wind (colors)
NO
RTH
-SO
UTH
EAST – WEST (km)
0 100 200
363330272421181512 9 6 3 0 -3 -6
Contour lines: topography
Downscaled output at 1km resolution
Finer details in wind in response to high resolution terrain EAST – WEST
(km)
0 100 200
Developmental Testbed Center
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Facility where NWP research and operational communities interact to accelerate testing and evaluation of new models and techniques for research applications and operational implementation, without interfering with current operations
CIRA recent contributions include: WRF microphysics sensitivity analysis Publication in progress for QPF
verification results from HMT-West winter exercises for 2011 and 2012
DTC quarterly Newsletter ‘Transitions’ Development and implementation of WRF Domain
Wizard and WRF Portal—graphical user interface to WRF
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