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Baha'i Perspectives on Global RisksWilmette Institute, 31 March 2020
The Warnings of Baha'u'llah
The world is in travail, and its agitation waxethday by day. Its face is turned towardswaywardness and unbelief. Such shall be its plight, that to disclose it nowwould not be meet and seemly.
Gleanings from the Writings of Baha'u'llah LXI
What are some of humanity'schallenges?
World Economic Forum Global RisksReport 2020
Source: weforum.org
Short-term risk outlook in 2020
1. Economic confrontations2. Domestic political polarization3. Extreme heat waves4. Destruction of natural ecosystems5. Cyberattacks: infrastructure6. Protectionism on trade/investment7. Populist and nativist agendas8. Cyberattacks: theft of money/data9. Recession in a major economy10. Uncontrolled fires
Long term risk outlook by likelihood overthe next decade
1. Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)2. Failure of climate change mitigation and
adaptation3. Natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic eruption)4. Biodiversity loss5. Human-made environmental disasters6. Data fraud or theft7. Cyberattacks8. Water crises9. Global governance failure10. Asset bubble
Top ten long term risks by impact
1. Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
2. Weapons of mass destruction3. Biodiversity loss4. Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)5. Water crises6. Information infrastructure breakdown7. Natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic eruption)8. Cyberattacks9. Human-made environmental disasters10. Infectious diseases
Key messages of the Global Risks Report2020
● When the World Economic Forum first launchedthe Global Risks Perception Survey in 2006,economic risks filled most of the top spots bylikelihood and impact.
● In 2020, for the first time the Global RisksReport is dominated by the environment,especially by climate-related issues such asextreme weather and water crises.
What do the Baha'i teachings say aboutglobal risks to humankind?
Signs that herald or accompany thecalamity
Signs that herald or accompany the calamity
- The violent derangement of the world's equilibrium;- the trembling that will seize the limbs of mankind;- the radical transformation of human society;- the rolling up of the present-day Order;- the fundamental changes affecting the structure of government;- the weakening of the pillars of religion;- the rise of dictatorships;- the spread of tyranny;- the fall of monarchies;- the decline of ecclesiastical institutions;- the increase of anarchy and chaos;- the extension and consolidation of the Movement of the Left;- the fanning into flame of the smouldering fire of racial strife;- the development of infernal engines of war;- the burning of cities;- the contamination of the atmosphere of the earth.
(Shoghi Effendi, Ridván Message of April 1957)
How could we interpret “the contamination of the atmosphere of the
earth” from a 2020 perspective?
How could we interpret “the contamination of the atmosphere of the
earth” from a 2020 perspective?
● The widespread serious air pollution● Nuclear contamination● The depletion of the ozone layer ● The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere which cause global warming
Signs that herald or accompany the calamity
These problems may contribute to a greatcalamity which “must purge the human race of the dross of itsage-long corruptions, and weld its componentparts into a firmly knit world-embracingFellowship …"
Shoghi Effendi, Riḍván Message of April 1957, quoted bythe Universal House of Justice / 7 July 1976
“Much suffering will still be required ere thecontending nations, creeds, classes and races ofmankind are fused in the crucible of universalaffliction, and are forged by the fires of a fierceordeal into one organic commonwealth, one vast,unified, and harmoniously functioning system.”
Shoghi Effendi, The Unfoldment of World Civilization, March 11, 1936
“Adversities unimaginably appalling, undreamed of crises and upheavals, war, famine, and pestilence, might well combine to engrave in the soul of anunheeding generation those truths and principleswhich it has disdained to recognize and follow.”
Shoghi Effendi, The Unfoldment of World Civilization, March 11, 1936
“A paralysis more painful than any it has yetexperienced must creep over and further afflict thefabric of a broken society ere it can be rebuilt andregenerated.”
Shoghi Effendi, The Unfoldment of World Civilization, March 11, 1936
Coal Consumption in ChinaImage Credit: NY Times
Source: Centre for Researchon Energy and Clean Air,based on data from WIND
Clearer Water in VenicePhoto Credit: GIACOMO COSUA/NURPHOTOVIA GETTY IMAGES
Examples of Interconnectedness
1. Holistic Actions
2. The Capacity for Fundamental ChangeExists
3. Spiritual Development Is a Prerequisite forSolving Humanity's Problems
Shoghi Effendi about Humankind:
“Its present state, indeed even its immediatefuture, is dark, distressingly dark. Its distant future,however, is radiant, gloriously radiant—so radiantthat no eye can visualize it.”
Shoghi Effendi, The Promised Day Is Come, p. 116
Hope and Confidence
Hope and Confidence
“Vision must be restored where hope is lost,confidence built where doubt and confusion arerife."
The Universal House of Justice, Ridvan 145, 1988,
in A Wider Horizon - Selected Messages of the Universal House of Justice, 1983-1992, p.58
“These are not days of prosperity and triumph.The whole of mankind is in the grip of manifoldills.
Strive, therefore, to save its life through thewholesome medicine which the almighty hand ofthe unerring Physician hath prepared.“
Gleanings from the Writings of Baha’u’llah XXXIV
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