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7/30/2019 Banaguas the Raping of Tropical Cyclones
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Glenn S. Banaguas
The Raping of Tropical Cyclones(Philippine Agricultural Sector)
Environmental and Climate Change Research Institute
De La Salle Araneta University
Manila Observatory
Ateneo De Manila University
Climate Change: Building Critical Mass Awareness
August 22, 2013
ADB Headquarters, Manila
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GENERAL FRAMEWORK
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TRACK
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Tropical Cyclones
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Monthly Analysis Model
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RISK
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Vulnerability is defined as a
condition determined by
physical, social, and economic
and environmental factors or
processes, which increase the
susceptibility of a community
to the impact of hazards. (e.g.
Human Development Index)
Exposure is the process by
which a person comes into a
contact with a hazard. (e.g.
population)
Hazard a process or event that
is potentially damaging in that
it may result in loss of life or
injury, loss of property, socio-economic destruction or
environmental degradation.
Hazard
RISKR=H x E x V
Vulnerability Exposure
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MODEL
Max = 11+ 12+ ij
ij= indicatori assigned to j hotspots
i= 1..n (number of iterations)
j= 1m (number of hotspots)
nn+ .. n-1n-1
i1+ i2+. ij
Indicator Duration 1
()
Duration 2
()
Probable
Damaged Area
Number ofHotspots
Number ofElements
Optimum
Number ofElement
PROBABILISTIC INPUTS
CONTROLLABLE INPUTS
Figure 2.2 Risk Simulation Model
Monte Carlo Simulation/Modeling
Risk Assessment
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Variables:
= total number ofindicator
n= number of iterations
n= random variable for probability distribution
of first durationn= random variable for probability distribution
of second duration
i j= indicatori assigned to j hotspots
i= 1 to n (iterations to end)
j= 1 to m ( hotspots)
Object ive Funct io n
Max the total number ofindicator= n (total number of iterations)
Max = 11+ 12+ i j
Subject to:
nn+ .. n -1n-1 (total number of period)
i1
+ i2
+ i j
(total number ofindicator)
n, i j, n, n 0 (non-negativity)
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Flowchart of
Monte Carlo Modeling
# indicator= # of iterations
MODEL PARAMETERS
Max = 11+ 12+ ijij= indicatori assigned to j hotspot
i = 1..n (number of iterations)
j = 1..m (number of hotspot)
nn+ .. n-1n-1
i1+ i2+ ij
START
Generate (Poisson) for the indicator
Generate (discrete) random numbers from the
probability distribution month ()
Total Number ofIndicatorn = nn+ .. n-1n-1
Generate (discrete) random numbers from the
probability distribution days ()
Is Total days n
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Monte Carlo Simulation Output
After 1000 replications per indicator, Table 3.1 as shown provides the summary ofthe simulation results
Table 3.1 Summary of the Modeling Results
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Risk Modelling
using GIS
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Hazard Exposure Vulnerability
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IMPACT
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Agricultural areas that were damaged by the
Tropical Cyclones
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POLICY
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Policies
(a) the Republic Act 7160, which is also
known as the Local Government Code
(b) Republic Act 10121, which is the
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
Act; and
(c) the Republic Act 9729, which is the
Climate Change Act.
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EXAMPLE: Disaster Funds Allocationa. Present Calamity Funds Allocation
(Section 324-d of Republic Act 7160 ; Section 21 Republic Act 10121; and Section 18of Republic Act of 9729): 5% of the revenue
Using the revenue allotment of 2009, Php 10,053,996.00,
aroundPhp 502, 699.80 is allotted to the Municipality of Cabusao
Probable Affected
Population
Budget Allocation
(1 day)
Budget Allocation
(5 days)
19,653 PHP 26.00 PHP 5.00
15,722 (80%)PHP 32.00 PHP 6.00
11,791 (60%) PHP 43.00 PHP 8.00
7,861 (40%)PHP 64.00 PHP 13.00
3,930 (20%) PHP 128.00 PHP 26.00
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DRR-CCA-MDG Model
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Adaptation AlternativesAspects Adaptation Alternatives
Infrastructure Coastal resource management; sand pumping; river dredging; lining of river
channel; installation of collectors, storm gates and pumps; construction of water
gate; development of food storage facilities; rain gauge installation;
Capacity Building Improve environmental education; build staff capacity and infrastructure to
implement flood warning system; build capacity in weather forecasting; Hydro-climatic network monitoring; strengthen commodity value chains and find new
markets; build knowledge and capacity in adaptation
Policy Design and implement zoning regulations and building codes; inter-sectoral
allocation; facilitate access to credit; water conservation and demandmanagement (including metering and price structure); compensation for flood
damages; develop coastal resource management plans at the barangay levels
New Practices Incorporation of risk assessment and mitigation information into micro-
watershed management plans; rainwater harvesting; documentation of bestpractices and case studies
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Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)
1.Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a localpriority with a strong institutional basis for implementation.
a. Reviewing climate risk information available at the local
level;b. Determining capacities for data collection and use;
c. Undertaking wide risk profiling with a focus on
vulnerable areas, sectors and groups;
d. Reviewing the zoning and land use plan taking intoaccount the danger areas.
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Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)
2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks andenhance early warning.
In the Philippines, it is not enough to have a warninggadget/device that will monitor the risks. Thesiren/warning device should provide sophisticatedservices such as full automation that will air 8 to 14
kilometers in order for the people to prepare inadvance.
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Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)
3. Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a cultureof safety and resilience at all levels.
Improved use of climate change/natural disaster information
that requires more investment ina.networks of climate stations,
b.capacity building for interpreting information,
c. user-friendly forecasting tools and productsd. linkages between service providers (researchers and
hydro-meteorological services)
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Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)
4. Reduce the underlying risk factors
a. Adapting agriculture, fisheries, and other industry practices through,
for example, adjustment of crop and fishing calendars, and
introduction of climate-resilient crop and tree varieties;
b. Improving sustainable natural and coastal resource management to
increase resilience of food production systems;
c. Investing in infrastructure and hazard proofing critical facilities;
d. Diversifying livelihoods through decreasing dependence on the usual
activities, and increasing small-scale enterprise development.
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Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA)
5. Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response atall levels
a. Expanded contingency planning, especially in areas prone to flood,
windstorms or drought, that considers new and evolving risk scenariosand integrates the three (3Bs) Build Back Better principles to induce
prevention and adaptation in rehabilitation;
b. More flexible funding mechanisms at the international level that allow
development and humanitarian resources to be invested in
preparedness;c. Preparedness for diversified livelihoods response options combined
with social protection measures both to individuals and households ;
d. Proper communication through responsible avenues with the use of
TV and radio stations.
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GAPS ANDCONSTRAINTS
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(a) the lack of sufficient normative
frameworks (lack of political will to providesecurity, implementation capacity and
limited public resources)
b) structural limitation - increasing poverty
incidence is highly sensitive issue that is
marginalized in political discourse
CONCLUSION
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CONCLUSION
Track-Risk-Impact-Policy (TRIP) Modeling provides a dynamic impetus
that created a panorama of genesis, resiliency, and progress.
The colossal figure of the meteorological hazard would continue to
intensify in the future and would give immense bearing and massive
impacts to the populace and to the agricultural assets.
The uncovering issue of worst-case scenario might be idyllic due to its
plausible outcome but should be dealt with apposite solution and
recommendations.
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Thank you.
Take care.
God bless us all.
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