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Be a leader. Be informed. Be a part ofBC3.The Business Council on Climate Change.
Climate AdaptationSteve Messner, SAIC
Steve Goldbeck, BCDC
7th
October 2009
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Agenda1. Introduction (BC3 and SAIC)
2. State Level Climate Adaptation Strategies (SAIC)
3. Regional Case Study: San Diego (SAIC)
4. Bay Area Climate Adaptation (BCDC)
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IntroductionWith climate change, there are two fundamental issues for
cities to address
1. Greenhouse gas emissions
mitigation strategies
2. Climate change impacts
adaptation strategies
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Importance of Adaptation Climate Change Impacts are already
occurring
Future climate impacts projected to beworse
Without adaptation, $2.5 trillion are atrisk
Opportunity to reduce risks and buildresilience
Adaptation is required under CEQA
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California Climate Adaptation Governors Executive Order S-13-08:
State Climate Adaptation Strategy (CAS)
California Sea Level Rise Assessment Report Transportation systems vulnerability assessment
Californiahistorical andprojected Julytemperature
increase1961-2099
Source: Dan Cayan et al. 2009
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California Climate Adaptation (cont.) Decreasing California Snowpack
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California Climate Adaptation Strategy (CAS) First state-wide, multi-sector, region-
specific info-based adaptationstrategy in the US
Led by CNRA under Climate ActionTeam
Six state agencies led 7 differentworking groups
Focused on Science, Strategy,Action
Strategies = What can be done byDecember 2010
Beginning of conversation, not end
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CAS Elements Adaptation story
Synthesis of statewide impacts fromlatest research
Outline key recommendations
Describe potential impacts on
sectors Provide sector-based adaptationstrategies
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CAS Key Recommendations Avoid significant new
development in high risk areas
Sector agencies develop
adaptation plans Develop Climate Adaptation
Advisory Panel
Implement CEQA = climate
impacts to projects
Adapt water management anduse for climate change
Identify most vulnerablecommunities and habitats(2010)
Offer guidance/tools for localcommunity planning
Identify wildfire risk areas (June
2010) Increase renewable energy
supply/efficiency
Make synthesized researchresults easily accessible
Provide guidance to localcommunities on assessing
ways to maintain/improve publichealth under climate change
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CAS Cross-Sector Strategies Improve emergency preparedness and response
Expand research and monitoring
Develop a statewide climate vulnerability assessment Develop a coordinated public outreach effort
Coordinate and centralize adaptation efforts
Provide tools to effectively guide local land use decisions
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CAS Strategy Example Water Management Regional water management
Fully implement Integrated Regional WaterManagement (IRWM)
Aggressively increase water use efficiency
Statewide water management
Flood management Ecosystem stewardship
Surface and groundwater storage
Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Decision-making capacity
Sustainable financing
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CAS Strategy Example Coastal Resources State policy to avoid future sea
level rise hazards
Decision guidance for dealingwith existing infrastructure anddevelopment and planning newprojects
Data and information support forlocal and state agencies
Continued state agency and
local planning
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CAS Strategy Coastal Resources)
Replacement value ofbuildings and contents
vulnerable to a100 year coastal floodwith 1.4 meters of sealevel rise
Source: Pacific Institute, 2009http://www.pacinst.org/reports/sea_level_rise/maps/
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CAS Strategy Example Forestry Incorporate climate information into Resource
Management and Fire Protection programs
Improve capacity for long term and real-time risk andvulnerability assessments
Support local actions to address vulnerability and managefor resilience
Monitor forest health and adaptive management
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CAS Strategy Example Infrastructure Energy segment:
Increase Energy Efficiency inClimate Vulnerable Areas
Assess impacts from climatechange in siting and re-licensing ofnew energy facilities
Develop hydropower decision-support tools to better manageclimate change variability
Identify how state renewable
energy goals could be impacted byclimate impacts
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San Diego Climate & Adaptation Planning The San Diego Foundations Climate Initiative
Work with government, business, and the community at large to advance regionalefforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions and reduce our vulnerability to some ofthe most harmful effects of climate change
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San Diego Carbon Footprint
www.sandiego.edu/epic/ghginventory
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San Diego GHG Mitigation Strategies
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San Diego uniquely at risk Enviable mild climate
70 miles of coastline
Exceptional combination of beaches, canyons, mountains,& deserts
Unique hot-spot for biodiversity, with many already
threatened species Severe existing wildfire conditions
International border with Tijuana
Reliance on imports for up to95% of our water needs
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San Diego Focus 2050 Study
To understand the unknowncosts and risks associated witha changing climate
To build sense of urgencyaround agreed upon set of facts
Primary Question:What will our region look like in 2050 due to climate
change, if current trends continue?(King County model)
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Approach Disaggregate California Data & Trends to County Level
Topics AddressedClimate change Electricity
Sea level rise Land use & Transportation
Water WildfiresPublic health Biodiversity & Habitat
Contributing Organizations Include
UCSD, SDSU, USD, UCSB, UCR Scripps Institute for OceanographyConservation Biology Institute SANDAG
County of San Diego departments U.S. Geological SurveySan Diego County Water Authority CA Center for Sustainable Energy
SD Natural History Museum SAICCA Center for Sustainable Energy Zoological Society of San Diego
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Average annual temperatures will be between 1.5 &4.5oF higher by 2050
Early November will feel like September currently does.
Our region will become even more vulnerable to drought.
Projected AnnualTemperaturesforSanDiegoCountyuntil2100
Regional Climate Change
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Sea Level Rise
i n
ProjectedsealevelriseforSanDiegoCountyuntil2050
Sea level is projected to rise by as much as 18 inches
This, combined with tidal and storm surges, will cause
harm or loss of our sandy beach areas, wetlands,coastal commercial, municipal, & residential properties
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Despite plans for water conservation, desalinization,and recycling, demand for fresh water will outstrip
supply by 2050
There will be growing potential for conflicts amongmultiple users
Water
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Plant and animal habitats in San Diego will beincreasingly threatened due to
climate change too rapid for some species to adapt increased wildfires & more intense droughts
habitat fragmentation and urban sprawl
ThesouthernSagebrushLizardisfoundonlyatelevationsabove5,000ft. Withalreadyreducedpopulations,theymaydisappearfromlocalmountainsthattop
out at6,000feetiftemperaturescontinuetorise.
Ecosystems
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Managing regional energy demand will be even morechallenging by 2050
Peak electricity demand will increase by over 70% withwarmer temperatures causing about 7%.
ProjectedchangeinsummerdaytimepeaktemperaturesinSanDiegoCountyintheyear2050
Electricity
Ad t ti O ti E l
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Adaptation Option Examples
Ad t ti O ti E l
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Adaptation Option Examples
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Thank You & DiscussionPlease contact:
Steve Messner
Ph: 858.220.6079
E-mail: steven.d.messner@saic.com
Learn how SAICs energy and climate changeteam can help you.
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