Biotechnology and Agriculture: Key Issues of Concern in Taiwan 蔡 嘉 寅 November 20, 2007

Biotechnology and Agriculture:

Key Issues of Concern in Taiwan

蔡 嘉 寅

November 20, 2007

Overview:

• What is biotechnology

• What is genetic engineering and its applications

• What are the major global concerns related to environment and agriculture

• What are the key agricultural issues in Taiwan

Biotechnology covers a wide spectrum:

Brewing to organismal cloning

Genetic engineering

Tg-cloned pigs

Tg pig 8-3 酷比一號

酷比三號

酷比二號

Fig. Each of the cloned pigs appears similar black–blue spots on there rear back skin.

(Wu et al., 2002)

Nuclear donor-pig

What is genetic engineering and its applications

Transcription Translation

DNA ----------> RNA ----------> Protein

Why transgenic organisms?

Constraint due to sexual incompatibility

基因鎗

基因子彈

植物細胞

Nucleus

農業試驗所農藝組

DNA transfer

bang!

基因射擊後之表現

農業試驗所農藝組

細胞再生成植株

農業試驗所農藝組

Figure. Comparison on the retarding effects on the yellowing of harvested floral heads in transformed and non-transformed broccoli. A,B,C,D: ipt transformed lines, E: non-transformed control; Upper row: pictured at the day detached; Lower row: after harvest and stored at 25°C for 6 days. ( 資料來源 :中央研究院 植物所 陳榮芳提供 )

以甘藷的抗蟲基因轉殖至菸草中，轉殖菸草（左）可以抗斜夜盜蟲等台灣常見害蟲之侵蝕資料來源 :台灣大學植物所葉開溫提供

Spodopter litura(tobacoo cutworm)

Major global concerns in this century

• Deterioration of the environment

• Diminution of natural resources

• Shortage of food supply

• Increase in population

Deterioration of the environment

Global warming

Sea level rise, spreading diseases, drought

Pollution

Industrial, agricultural and other human activities

Changes of CO2 concentration since the 18th century

Source: IPCC

Global WarmingGlobal CO2 emission: 25 billion tons/year

Atmospheric CO2 concentration:

280ppm (1850 年 ) 370 (current) 700ppm (2100年 )

Average global temperature would increase about 3°C

Source: IPCC

When the temperature increase 3°C

Sea level might rise 10-90 cm

Source: IPCC

Global Warming

• Initially may favor grain production

• Frequency of drought

• Increases in insect population

Initially may favor grain production due to:

CO2 concentration

Temperature

Global Warming

• Initially may favor grain production

• Frequency of drought

• Increases in insect population

Probability of drought in

U.S. when temperature

increase 3°C

5% (current) 50%

Source: IPCC

Global Warming

• Initially may favor grain production

• Frequency of drought

• Increases in insect population

Infectious diseases

Increases in mosquito population when temperature increase 3 degree Celsius______________________________________Regions Population increase__________________________________

Tropical regions Two-fold

Temperate regions Ten-fold______________________________________More than 2 billion people could suffer from infectious diseases each year

Source: Research for Man and the Environment

Strategies

CO2 emissions in 2012 cut back to 1990 level ---

Kyoto Protocol (effective on February 16, 2005)

Annual CO2 emission per person

0

5

10

15

20

25

台灣 美國 英國 德國 日本 澳洲 韓國 巴西

()

排放量噸

1990

2000

2020

Source: STPI

Deterioration of the environment

Global warming

Sea level rise, spreading diseases, drought

Pollution

Industrial, agricultural and other human activities

World nitrogen consumption

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

year

mill

ion

tone

s

World

Source: FAO STAT

YearYear Total pesticideTotal pesticide InsecticideInsecticide HerbicideHerbicide FungicideFungicide

19991999 1,376,050 1,376,050 293,365 293,365 608,154 608,154 414,645 414,645

20002000 1,388,774 1,388,774 293,074 293,074 616,028 616,028 413,870 413,870

20012001 1,383,506 1,383,506 289,598 289,598 631,535 631,535 415,067 415,067

20022002 1,407,245 1,407,245 294,872 294,872 649,061 649,061 418,301 418,301

20032003 1,441,608 1,441,608 293,162 293,162 666,270 666,270 432,088 432,088

20042004 1,466,994 1,466,994 293,529 293,529 680,780 680,780 439,656 439,656

20052005 1,493,792 1,493,792 294,289 294,289 697,484 697,484 448,265 448,265

1999-2005 Global pesticide consumptionUnit: ton

Source: Euromonitor International from FAO

N fertilizer and pesticide consumption in U.S. and Taiwan

Country Production area Country Production area Nitrogen Nitrogen Pesticide Pesticide

(1000 ha) (1000 ha) (kg/ha) (kg/ha) (kg/ha) (kg/ha)

U. S.U. S. 127,252 127,252 82 82 22

Taiwan Taiwan 880 340 14 880 340 14

Major global concerns in this century

• Deterioration of the environment

• Diminution of natural resources

• Shortage of food supply

• Increase in population

Diminution of natural resources

Supply of major energy sources

Coal 164 years

Oil 41 years

Natural gas 67 years

Uranium 85 years

Source: BP 2005, URANIUM 2005

Changes of oil price from 1999 to 2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

年份

(/

)價格美元桶

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

資料來源：經濟部能源局能源

Strategies

Alternative energy: renewable sources

Bush Administration’s effort

Reduce gasoline consumption by 20% in 10 years

• Convert 50% of corn produced into ethanol

• Create 3 bioenergy research centers

U.S. EPA Ethanol Regulations

Mandatory requirements:

Gasoline or diesel should contain

2.78% in 2005

3.00% in 2006

3.71% in 2007

Volunteer program: E85 is a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline and is used in flexible fuel vehicles (MFA Oil Co. and Mid-Missouri Energy)

U.S. corn production in 2006

Planted acreage (m ha) Production (m tons)

31.7 267.6

35.6 (projection for 2007)

• 2006 had 106 companies used 53.3 million tons for ethanol production

• 2007 expects to increase 30 more companies using 88.9 million tons

for ethanol production

Changes of corn prices in recent years

Source: Corn Mini, TFC Commodity Chart

Bush Administration’s effort

Reduce gasoline consumption by 20% in 10 years

• Convert 50% of corn produced into ethanol

• Create 3 bioenergy research centers

Three bioenergy research centers

• Location: Oak Ridge, Tenn; Madison, WI; Berkeley, CA

• Budget: DOE provides 125 million capital and 25 million/year

of research budget for each center to start operation on Sept. 1,

2009. Each center involves scientists from universities, companies,

and national labs in their regions.

• Mission: 1. Finding naturally occurring microbes to break down

lignin effectively. 2. Creating new crops. 3. Bring technologies to

market in 5 years.

Major global concerns in this century

• Deterioration of the environment

• Diminution of natural resources

• Shortage of food supply

• Increase in population

美國乾旱或然率

5% ( 目前 ) 50% (2050 年)

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

year

capture

aquaculture

World fish catch and aquaculture productionto

ns

Source: FAO

Strategies

Aquaculture

Projection for aquaculture

Source ： FAO, Danske Securities

Wild catches and aquaculture production 1984-2025E

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

F

20

02

F

20

05

F

20

08

F

20

11

F

20

14

F

20

17

F

20

20

F

20

23

F

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

Aquaculture

Wild catches

Share Aquaculture

Source: FAO, Danske Securities

千噸

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

(水產養殖)

(捕撈)

(水產養殖佔總漁產之比率)

Wild catches and aquaculture production 1984-2025E

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

19

84

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

F

20

02

F

20

05

F

20

08

F

20

11

F

20

14

F

20

17

F

20

20

F

20

23

F

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

Aquaculture

Wild catches

Share Aquaculture

Source: FAO, Danske Securities

千噸

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

(水產養殖)

(捕撈)

(水產養殖佔總漁產之比率)

Major global concerns in this century

• Deterioration of the environment

• Diminution of natural resources

• Shortage of food supply

• Increase in population

1960-2003 World grain production

YearYear Production Production (mt)(mt)

1960 1960 824 824

1970 1970 1,0791,079

1980 1980 1,4301,430

19901990 1,7681,768

20002000 1,8391,839

20032003 1,8211,821

Source: USDA

World population and grain harvested area

Year Population (million) Harvest area (million ha)Year Population (million) Harvest area (million ha)

1980 4,447 7701980 4,447 770

1990 5,274 7601990 5,274 760

2000 6,073 7802000 6,073 780

Source: U.S. Bureau of Mines

Major global concerns in this century

• Deterioration of the environment

• Diminution of natural resources

• Shortage of food supply

• Increase in population

Pop

ulation

by R

egion (B

illions)

YearSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

N. America; Europe; USSRLatin AmericaAsiaNear East and N. AfricaSub-Saharan Africa

World population trend

Strategies

Population- control

Food – production (average yield 2300 kg/ha)

Inputs (nutrients, pesticides, water)

weather

Biotechnology (GMO)

Reduce meet consumption

Competitions for grain consumption

Human consumption: 300kg percapita

Animal: conversion ratios

beef – 7 : 1

pork – 4 : 1

chicken – 2 : 1

Energy: ethanol production

Human consumption percapita

World average: 300 kg percapita

U.S.: 800 kg percapita

Taiwan: 400 kg percapita

China: 300 kg percapita

India: 200 kg percapita

Major agricultural issues in Taiwan

• High production costs resulting in low profit

• Labor intensive causing a low production efficiency

• Lack of entrepreneurship for developing marketing strategies

• Aging community affecting agricultural vitality

7 圖 農業就業人口之年齡結構變動

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

年

(%

)年齡結構

15-29歲

30-59歲

60歲以上

資料來源；「人力資源統計月報」，行政院主計處。

Strategies to increase competitiveness for agro-industry

• Identify high potential products (focus) for global markets

• Promote horizontal integrations to increase production efficiency

• Revise laws and regulations to facilitate the development

• Set up platforms to commercialize R&D outputs

SWOT analysis (domestic and global)

Strength

Weakness

Opportunity

Threat

類別 關鍵問題及技術 願景

養殖

花卉

蔬菜、菇類

水果

成為亞太地區健康水產種苗中心

建立穩定之花卉健康種苗供應體系

建構安全農業體系

促進外銷及穩定內銷市場

功能性基因 (含抗逆境 )(畜產、水產、水稻 ) 發展分子農場

豬、雞

制定我國可發展重點方向

1997 至 2004 年我國重要花卉出口值

資料來源：財政部關稅總局統計資料庫

單位：新台幣億元

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

菊花 唐菖蒲 玫瑰 百合 火鶴花 蘭花

蘭花 420%

菊花 87%

由產業資訊分析我國發展之利基

資料來源： FAO, Danske Securities

Wild catches and aquaculture production 1984-2025E

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 0001

984

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

F

20

02

F

20

05

F

20

08

F

20

11

F

20

14

F

20

17

F

20

20

F

20

23

F

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

Aquaculture

Wild catches

Share Aquaculture

Source: FAO, Danske Securities

千噸

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

(水產養殖)

(捕撈)

(水產養殖佔總漁產之比率)

Wild catches and aquaculture production 1984-2025E

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 0001

984

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

F

20

02

F

20

05

F

20

08

F

20

11

F

20

14

F

20

17

F

20

20

F

20

23

F

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

Aquaculture

Wild catches

Share Aquaculture

Source: FAO, Danske Securities

千噸

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

(水產養殖)

(捕撈)

(水產養殖佔總漁產之比率)

重視聚落效應增加

研發經費

改善基礎建設

鼓勵投資

提供優惠措施

明訂推動單位

規劃發展重點

發展重點

Proofof

Concept

Early Product

Development

LateProduct

Development

Registration

農業生技相關計畫

核心技術／核心設施／人員配置

技術開發平台 (中心 ) BTC

規劃並建構產業化技術開發平台—功能

Proofof

Concept

Early Product

Development

LateProduct

Development

Registration

農業生技相關計畫

核心技術／核心設施／人員配置

技術開發平台 (中心 ) BTC

學研機構1

1 研發能量評估機制

3 廠商參與評估機制

產業化企劃書

廠商3

廠商 3

廠商3

2

2

2

2 產品上市評估機制

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4

4

4

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