Campaigns and Elections. Current Event…yes it relates… Nathan Deal running for Governor Bad...

Campaigns and Elections

Current Event…yes it relates…

• Nathan Deal running for Governor

• Bad investments = $millions in debt

• Still running for Governor

www.myfoxatlanta.com

Make a prediction…

• What is his campaign strategy in this?

• How is his “camp” trying to made lemonade out of lemons?

• SO….what do you think popular opinion will show?

Take Five

What offices are up for election?

GeorgiaElections & Elected Officials

Filing Deadline (Major Parties): April 30, 2010Filing Deadline (Minor Parties): July 2, 2010Filing Deadline (Write-In Candidates): September 7, 2010State Primary: July 20, 2010Primary Run-off: August 10, 2010General Election Run-Off (if needed): November 30, 2010

The Structure of a Campaign

• All political campaigns can be viewed as a series of several campaigns that run simultaneously.

The Nomination CampaignThe General Election CampaignThe Personal CampaignThe Organizational CampaignThe Media Campaign

Do People Vote for the

Candidate or the Campaign? • The most important factor in any campaign is thecandidate (he/she is even more important than money).• Campaigns are able (most of the time) to downplay acandidate’s weaknesses and emphasize her strengths.• However, even the best campaigns cannot put anineffective candidate in the win column – most of thetime.• Most people vote for a candidate not the campaign.

Local or state elections

• It’s all about YOU…

• The nomination process– Individual effort

• Deciding on the commitment• Raising the $$$$$$$$$$• Collecting signatures to get your name on the

ballot• Appealing to the public

The Nomination Process (for President & Vice President)

• The old way…the caucus process– Elitist – Closed sessions—secretive, invitation only

• Anti-Masonic Party…1831 holds the first party convention– Larger group to discuss and nominate candidates

• National Party Conventions– The final announcement– Primaries and lack of $$$$$ have already limited the prospects – Really “winners” of the party’s nominations are already decided

before the convention– Convention is the celebration of launching the candidates toward

the General Election in Nov

Presidential Election Process

1. Each state holds a primary or caucus between January and June to determine candidates for parties

2. Candidates then enter into general elections against the other political parties

- More people vote in general elections. - 64.1% of eligible American voters voted in

2008- In 2004, 50% of people voted in general

elections versus 25% in the primaries.

Campaign Challenges

• “candidates spent 99% of campaign funding in only 15 states”- power of Electoral College

Electoral College

Congressional Elections vs. Presidential Elections

• Congress elections are regional– Senate by state; House by district

• House elections are less competitive than Senate or President– Incumbents – rep up for reelection, typically

win elections by 60%

• Congressional elections every two years (all House up for reelection and 1/3 of the Senate) Fewer people vote in “off-year” or “midterm year” (only 36%) which means voters are more activist or ideological

Take Five

(1) What district is Paulding county?

Take Five

(1) Who are our existing State

Representatives & Senators?

(2) Who is running for office in

Nov. 2010?

Answers…• Existing Senators

– Johnny Isakson (R)– Saxby Chambliss (R)

• Existing House of Representatives– Barrow, John, Georgia, 12th – Bishop Jr., Sanford D., Georgia, 2nd – Broun, Paul C., Georgia, 10th – Gingrey, Phil, Georgia, 11th – Graves, Tom, Georgia, 9th – Johnson, Henry C. "Hank" Jr., Georgia, 4th – Kingston, Jack, Georgia, 1st – Lewis, John, Georgia, 5th – Linder, John, Georgia, 7th – Marshall, Jim, Georgia, 8th – Price, Tom, Georgia, 6th – Scott, David, Georgia, 13th – Westmoreland, Lynn A., Georgia, 3rd

Answers…

• http://www.uselections.com/ga/ga.htm

Congressional Elections vs. Presidential Elections

Coattail effect - Presidential popularity effecting congressional elections in midterm years

In modern times, there has not been a President that would effectively carry a congressman

• Congress communicates with their constituents more directly, often personally, while President relies on media

• Congress reps can deny responsibility and blame problems on other reps or President

Running for President

• Money• Organization

– Fund-raisers, lawyers, accountants, media consultants, advisors, pollsters, etc. staff of hundreds

• Strategy and Themes– Tone (positive or negative?)– Theme (simple and catchy)– Timing (when do you put on the speed?)– Target (which group should you target? Moderates,

women, hispanics?)

Contributions and Expenses

• Campaigns are VERY expensive.

• House races can cost over $1 million but

usually cost $400-700,000 for incumbents, less

for challengers.

• Senate races cost much more.

• All political money is regulated by the federal

government under the Federal Elections

Campaign Act of 1971, 1974, 1976 & 2002

Campaign Contributions

• A single individual cannot give a candidate more than $2,000 per election

• A PAC (Political action committee) which represents a corporation or special interest group can give up to $5,000 to any one candidate per election

What determines a district?

• 2 problems with determining congressional districts

• Malapportionment—districts that are of unequal size

• Gerrymandering—redrawing of district lines (sometimes in odd shapes) to make it easier for a candidate to win an election

Gerrymandering

Take Five

• Do you think that gerrymandering is fair? How is this legal?

4 issues

• Establishing the total size of the House of Reps– 1911 House was too big to keep growing based on

the total population—Congress “set” the number of Representatives at 435

• Allocating seats in the House among the states– States gain and lose population—every 10 years

Congress requires reapportionment

• Determining the size of congressional districts within states

• Determining the shape of the districts

Running for Congress

• Incumbents have huge advantages– Franking privileges– Trips home—paid for – Radio & TV broadcasts– Using politics to gain personal favor

• Fed. Government deciding to keep a military base open or a government contract for more planes (Lockheed) makes the local politican look good

• Congress has unlimited terms that they can serve– Strom Thurmond served 43 years (25 congressional

terms)—retired at 94– Ted Kennedy served 47 years

More Perks for Incumbents

• Cater to constituents “distrust” of government—– ”I’m going to clean it up” if re-elected– “I can get you things” if re-elected

• Organizing to listen to the needs of the people back home

• Working on committees that benefit the state• “All politics is local”—Tip O’Neill