Carbon producers’ tar pit: dinosaurs beware · 2017. 12. 11. · Carbon producers’ tar pit:...

Carbonproducers’tarpit:dinosaursbewareThepathtoholdingfossilfuelproducersaccountableforclimatechange&climatedamages

InstituteforNewEconomicThinking:PlenaryConferenceinEdinburghRichardHeede

ClimateAccountabilityInstitute17October2017

JoelPett,LexingtonHerald-Leader,©CartoonistGroup.

Abstract.TheprojecttoquantifythecontributiontoatmosphericcarbondioxideandmethanearisingfromtheoperationalemissionsoffossilfuelcompanysupplychainsandthesaleofcarbonfuelstoconsumersbeganwithananalysisofJohnRockefeller’sStandardOilCompanyfrom1882to2002undertheaegisoftheClimateJusticeProgramme.Thereport,andthemodelingofExxonMobil’scontributiontotemperaturechangeandsealevelrise,waspublishedbyFriendsoftheEarthUKin2005.Thispapertracestheevolutionoftheproject,itsmethodsandresults,themilestones,andthereactionsofindustryandgovernmentuptotherecentpublicationofanattributionstudyinClimaticChange,corporateaccountabilityforclimatechange(andfromwhichyeardoestheclockonaccountabilitystart?),industryclimatedenialefforts,theirmoralobligationtoleadondecarbonizingtheworldeconomy,potentiallitigationrisksforclimatedamagesandreparations,andlawsuitsfiledbycitizens,counties,andcitiesinCaliforniaandelsewhere.

IntroductionItisbroadlyacceptedthatanthropogenicclimatechangepresentsaseriousthreattothehealth,prosperity,andstabilityofhumancommunities,andtothestabilityandexistenceofnon-humanspeciesandecosystems.Theinternationallegalframeworkestablishedin1992toprevent“dangerousanthropogenicinterference”withtheclimatesystemhasfocusedattentionontheroleofnation-states,andledtotheParisAccordin2015withcommitmentsby197nation-statestocuttheirgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsinalignmentwithnotexceeding2°Cofglobalwarmingandan“aspirational”targetof“wellbelow”2°C.Currentclimatechangeisprimarilydrivenbyhistoricemissions(Allenetal.2009,Matthewsetal.2009;Weietal.2012;IPCC2013),andthedevelopedstateswiththelargestattributedhistoricemissionshaveassumedprimaryresponsibilityfortakingtheleadinreducingglobalemissions.Therationaleforattributingresponsibilityforglobalclimatechangewasembodiedinthe1992UNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,inwhichthe“Partiesshouldprotecttheclimatesystemforthebenefitofpresentandfuturegenerationsofhumankind,onthebasisofequityandinaccordancewiththeircommonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilitiesandrespectivecapabilities.Accordingly,thedevelopedcountryPartiesshouldtaketheleadincombatingclimatechangeandtheadverseeffectsthereof.”(myemphasis.)

Richard Heede Climate Accountability Institute 1626 Gateway Road, Snowmass, heede@climateaccountability.org www.climateaccountability.org Colorado, 81654, USA 970-343-0707

Theburdensandresponsibilitiesarelainatthefootstepsoftherichestnationswiththelargesthistoricalcarbonfootprint.TheUnitedStateshascontributed25%ofglobalCO2since1800,andthusbearsthelargestobligationtolead.(China,theculpritusuallychastisedbyCongressionalclimatedenialists,isresponsiblefor11%ofhistoricemissions.)TheParisAccordwillprosperundersanerleadershipthanPresidentTrump’santi-scienceandanti-regulatoryadministration,asevidencedby“WeAreStillIn”commitmentsbythousandsofcompanies,universities,states,andcitiesacrosstheU.S.andtheshiftfromcoaltonaturalgasandrenewablesforelectricitygeneration.

U.S.withdrawalfromtheParisAccordandthedearthofpositivepolicyinitiativesaftersignificantprogressundertheObamaadministrationopenstheprospectforsolutionsfromotherquarters.WhiletheretrogradepolicyvacuumdominatesintheUnitedStates,thealternativepathwaystoleverageactionbytheelephantsintheroom—thefossilfuelcompanies—existaroundtheworld.

Thereisanotherwayoflookingathistoricalobligations:theculpabilityofcorporationsthatextractedthefossilfuels,refinedthemintomarketablefuels,anddistributedtheirproductstoconsumersineverynationonearth.Whyattributeresponsibilityoncompaniesthat,intheirownwords,providematerialsinhighdemandandthatfuelsocialandeconomicprogress?Becausethesecompanieshaveamoralandlegalobligationtowarnconsumersandsocietyiftheirproductsaredefectiveordangerous.Theyoperatewithat-risksocialoperatinglicenses,andmotivatedtoburnishtheirbrands.Investorsincreasinglydemandcompliancewithglobalclimatetargetsandtransparencyfromcompanieswithrespecttoclimateperformanceandpotentialstrandedassets.

Forexample,ExxonMobil’sownscientisthaveknownsincethe1970sthatincreasedfossilfuelusewoulddestabilizetheclimateandimperilthecompany’sfutureproductionofoilandnaturalgas.Exxon’smanagementwasmadeawareofthesefindings,butinsteadoftransparencythecompanyfundedcampaignstosowdoubtaboutclimatescience,defeatclimatelegislation,delayactiononclimate,andpublishedaseriesof“advertorials”intendedtomisleadthepublic(Supran&Oreskes,NewYorkTimes;seealsoClimateDeceptionDossiers(UnionofConcernedScientists),andSmoke&Fumes(CenterforInternationalEnvironmentalLaw).ExxonMobilwasnotaloneinbeingawareofthethreatofclimatechangefromcontinueduseoffossilfuels(Banerjeeetal.2016).PresidentJohnsonwarnedinamessagetoCongressin1965that“thisgenerationhasalteredthecompositionoftheatmosphereonaglobalscalethrough...asteadyincreaseincarbondioxidefromtheburningoffossilfuels.”(PSAC1965,Oreskes&Conway2010).Tradeassociationsandindustry-fundednon-profitssuchastheAmericanPetroleumInstitute,theGlobalClimateCoalition,andtheGreenEarthSocietychallengedtheemergingconsensusonclimatechangeandarguedforthebenefitsofglobalwarmingoncropsandwarmerwinters.SuchnonsenseisstillarguedintheUnitedStatesbyprominentadvisorstotheTrumpAdministrationandbymembersofCongress.

Considerablewealthhasaccumulatedtocompaniesthatproducethefuelssoldontheinternationalmarket.Forthisreason,thepresentanalysisfocusesontheworld'slargestinvestor-ownedandstate-ownedcarbonproducers,whethersituatedinAnnexIornon-AnnexInations,andinvitesconsiderationofthesuggestionthatsomedegreeofresponsibilityforbothcauseandremedyforclimatechangerestswiththoseentitiesthathaveextracted,refined,andmarketedthepreponderanceofthehistoriccarbonfuels.

Thequestionforaresponsiblecompanywasthen,asitisnow,howtoavoidcatastrophicclimatechangeandreducethecompany’sliabilityfordamages.Noneofthemajordomesticorinternationalfossilfuelcompaniestookmeaningfulstepstoavertthetrain-wreckwearenowthevictimsof:multiplehurricanesravagingtheCaribbeanandGulfofMexico,torrentialrainandfloodsinIndia,PuertoRico,andHouston,destructivewildfires,deadlyheat-wavesinEuropeandAsia,andworsetocome—forcenturies.Useoffossilfuelsintensifiesstormsandthelossoflifeandtreasure(Mann2017).Whilehumanactivitiesexacerbateratherthancausestorms,itistime,asMITatmosphericscientistKerryEmanuelsaidrecently,to“stopcallingthesehurricanedisasters'natural.’”

Itisnotsimplynationsandconsumersthatareresponsibleforclimaticchangesandtheensuingdamagestonature,wealth,andsecurity,butthefossilfuelproducers,too.

LegacyresponsibilitiesIfirstgotcuriousin2003abouttheproportionofatmosphericcarbondioxidethatisattributabletotheworld’slargestoil,naturalgas,andcoalcompaniesandthecarbonfuelstheyproduced.MyresearchwasfundedbytheClimateJusticeProgramme(CJP,thenbasedinLondon)andIfocusedonthehistoryofoilandgasproductionandthequantificationofattributableemissionsofasingleoilandgasfirm—StandardOiltoExxonMobilfrom1882to2002.Idevelopedamethodologyforestimatingdirectoperationalemissionsofcarbondioxideandmethanefromthesupplychain—fromexplorationandprocessingtofinishedcarbonfuelproducts—and,mostimportantly,ofemissionsfromthecarbonfuelsusedasintendedbythecompany’sworldwidecustomers.MyresultswerefedintoasimpleclimatemodelandsummarizedinExxon'sClimateFootprint:thecontributionofExxon-Mobiltoclimatechangesince1882(FriendsoftheEarthInternational2004).

CorporationsascribetotheguidanceintheGreenhouseGasProtocol(WRI2004)regardingtheiraccountingandmitigationboundary—typicallydirect(scope1:fromfuelusedinownedorleasedbuildings,facilities,vehicles,andaircraft)andindirect(scope2:frompurchasedelectricityandsteam)operationalemissionsofgreenhousegases.Thesearethesourcesmostcompaniescommittoinventoryand,tovaryingdegrees,committoreduceoroffset.Notsowithproduct-relatedemissions,however,whichistheunderlyingobjectiveofthesetofanalysesbegunin2003:toidentifythelargestproducersoffossilfuelsandtoquantifydirectoperationalandproduct-relatedemissionsfromextractedandmarketedcarbonfuelsbythesesamecompaniesbyfuelandbyyear.Wehavethusquantifiedtheclimatelegacyofthesecompaniesfromtheirinceptiontothepresent.

CJPsubsequentlyfundedanexpansionoftheprojecttotracehalformoreofhistoricalindustrialCO2emissionstotheprimarycarbonproducers,asdiscussedbelow.Thisexpandedscoperequiredgatheringproductiondataforseveraldozencompaniesovermanydecades,andwasintermittentlyfundedfrom2004totheproject’scompletionin2013,withafinalroundoffundingbyGreenpeaceInternationalandCJP.Athoroughpeerreviewconfirmedtherobustnessofthemethodology,whichisessentialforstandinguptoindustryscrutiny,publiccredibility,andlegalstanding.

MethodologyFortractability,athresholdof8milliontonnescarbonperyear(MtC/y)forfossilfuelproductionwasestablished.1Thisresultedintheidentificationof90entities:50investor-ownedcompanies,31state-ownedenterprises,and9currentorformercentrallyplannedstates.Ofthese90entities56arecrudeoilandnaturalgasproducers,37arecoalextractors(includingsubsidiariesofoil&gascompanies),and6arecementproducers.Headquarteredin43countries,theseentitiesextractresourcesfromeveryoil,naturalgas,andcoalprovinceintheworld,andprocessthefuelsintomarketableproductsthataresoldtoconsumersineverynationonEarth.

CompanyproductionrecordswereretrievedfrompubliclyavailableannualreportsfromuniversityandpubliclibrarycollectionsinEurope,NorthAmerica,Africa,andAsia,fromcompanywebsites,companyreportsfiledwiththeU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission,companyhistories,andothersources.Thecarboncontentofeachentity'sannualproductionofcoal,oil,naturalgasliquids,andnaturalgas—typicallyreportedinphysicalunits(coalinMt,oilinMb,andgasinBcf)—wascalculatedusingIPCC,UnitedNations,InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),andU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)carbonfactorstoquantifytheannualemissionstraceabletoeachentity.Historicallycompleterecordsweresoughtfromtheearliestavailable(theearliestisfrom1854)through2010.Wheremergersoracquisitionsoccurred,carbonproductionandemissionspriorto18MtCisequivalenttothecarboncontentof69millionbbl(Mb)ofoilor13.8Mtthermalcoal.

thedateofacquisitionareattributedtotheextantcompany.WeincludedsixlargecementcompaniesfortheirliberationofCO2fromcalciningoflimestoneCaCO3intocementitiousproducts.

Themethodologydeductsforthenon-energyusesofliquids,gases,andcoal(subtracting~8%ofliquidsproductionforpetrochemicals,roadoil,lubricants,etc.),whileaccountingforshort-termemissiontotheatmosphereofincineratedplastics(~40Mt/y),oxidationoflubricants,andsoforth.

Table1.Combustionemissionsfactors. Carbon CarbondioxideEnergysource tC/unit tCO2/unitCrudeoil&NGLs 101.4kgC/bbl 371.4kgCO2/bblNaturalgas 14.6kgC/kcf 53.4kgCO2/kcfLignite 328.4kgC/tonne 1,203.5kgCO2/tSubbituminous 495.2kgC/t 1,814.4kgCO2/tBituminous 665.6kgC/t 2,439.0kgCO2/tAnthracite 715.6kgC/t 2,621.9kgCO2/t“Metallurgicalcoal” 727.6kgC/t 2,665.9kgCO2/t“Thermalcoal” 581.1kgC/t 2,129.3kgCO2/t

Crudeoil:priortonon-energydeduction&adjustmentforNGLs:115.7kgC/bbl,423.8kgCO2/bbl;Gas:priortonon-energydeduction:14.86kgC/kcf,or54.44kgCO2/kcf;(kcf=thousandcubicfeet).

Directoperationalemissions—whichcomprise~10%ofoilandgasand~8%ofcoalcompanytotalattributedemissions—include:

• CO2fromflaring(ofrawgasassociatedwithoilwells,safetyflaresondrillingplatforms);• CO2ventedfromnaturalgasprocessingplants(CO2entrainedinrawgasandvented);• CO2fromacompany’suseofownfuelinrefineries,processingplants,compressorstations,

vehicles,trucks,aircraft,drillrigs,offshoreplatforms,ships,andmiscellaneousequipment;• Fugitiveandventedmethanefromwellheads,gasprocessingplants,valves&seals,storage

tanks,refineries,distributioninfrastructure,andtensofthousandsofpointsbetweenthewellandthecompanygates;

• Ventedmethanefromcoalminingoperationsandcoalmines,typicallyventedforsafetyreasons,andseldomcapturedandutilizedorflared.

Themethodology,thepeer-reviewprocess,andconservatismsadoptedfortheCarbonMajorsaccountingprotocolisdiscussedintheSupplementaryMaterialstoHeede2014,andHeede2013.

ResultsofCarbonMajorsstudy(2014)The2014analysisdocumentedatotalof914billiontonnesofCO2-equivalent(GtCO2e)tracedto90internationalentitiesbasedonhistoricalproductionrecordsdatingfrom1854to2010.Theseentitiescumulativelyproduced985billionbarrels(Gb)ofcrudeoilandNGLs(79Gbwerefornon-energyuses),2,248trillioncubicfeet(Tcf),and163billiontonnes(Gt)ofvariousranksofcoal.Theemissionstracedtothecarbonmajorsrepresented63percentofglobalindustrialCO2andmethanefromfossilfuelcombustionandcementbetween1751and2010.AttributedemissionsfromcrudeoilandNGLstotaled366GtCO2from55entitiesrepresenting77percentoftheglobalestimateofoil&NGLemissionssincepetroleumproductionbegan(Boden,Andres,&Marland/CDIAC2017).Intable2wecompareeachentity’shistoricalproduct-relatedandoperationalemissionstoglobalfossilfuelandcementemissionsintheCDIACdatabaseofindustrialCO2&CH4emissionsincolumn“percentofglobal1751-2013.”InFigures1,2,and3andTable2areupdatedresultsto2013productionandattributedemissions(Heede2014b,LimaPeru).TheoriginalCarbonMajorsquantificationandattributionwasupdatedbyCAIandCDPin2017(Griffin2017,Griffinetal.2017,Magill2017)to2015productionandemissionsdata,withslightmodificationstothemethodology.

Figure1.GlobalandCarbonMajorentities’CO2emissions,1810-2013.

GlobalfossilfuelandcementemissionsofCO2fromCDIAC(blackline).

ResultsofallCarbonMajorentities’emissionsofCO2andmethane(redline).

Table2.Cumulativeemissionsattributedtomajorfossilfuel&cementproducers,1854-2013,Top20IOC&SOE Product- Flaring,ownfuel, Fugitive Total Percent relatedCO2 ventedCO2 methane emissions ofglobal Entity MtCO2 MtCO2 MtCO2e MtCO2e 1751-20131. ChevronTexaco,USA 47,312 1,505 3,430 52,247 3.34%2. SaudiAramco,SaudiArabia 47,786 1,171 2,488 51,445 3.29%3. ExxonMobil,USA 43,239 1,603 3,714 48,557 3.10%4. BP,UK 33,761 1,064 2,426 37,251 2.38%5. Gazprom,RussianFederation 28,518 2,343 5,539 36,400 2.33%6. RoyalDutchShell,TheNetherlands 28,802 1,041 2,327 32,171 2.06%7. NationalIranianOilCompany 28,935 856 1,867 31,658 2.02%8. Pemex,Mexico 19,700 643 1,420 21,762 1.39%9. CoalIndia 16,677 0 1,413 18,090 1.16%10. ConocoPhillips,USA 15,300 687 1,566 17,553 1.12%11. PeabodyEnergy,USA 12,785 0 1,083 13,869 0.89%12. PetroleosdeVenezuela 12,640 356 771 13,767 0.88%13. TotalSA,France 11,633 389 862 12,884 0.83%14. PetroChina,China 11,103 336 736 12,175 0.78%15. KuwaitPetroleumCorp. 10,917 252 531 11,700 0.75%16. AbuDhabi 10,163 310 678 11,151 0.71%17. Sonatrach,Algeria 8,882 442 1,015 10,340 0.66%18. CONSOLEnergy,USA 8,519 5 729 9,254 0.59%19. BHPBilliton,Australia 7,908 69 672 8,649 0.55%20. IraqNationalOilCompany 7,436 158 327 7,921 0.51%

Scope3:productemissions;Scope1:directoperationalemissions(flaring,vented,fugitive,etc.).Heede2014b.

GlobalCO2emissionsfromthecombustionoffossilfuelandcementmanufacturing(“industrialemissions”)arederivedfromthecomprehensiveCDIACdatabase(Bodenetal.)thatbeginswiththeemissionof~11MtCO2in1751fromcoalcombustioninearlysteamenginesandroseto36,265MtCO2in2015.TheninetyCarbonMajorsarecomparedtoglobalindustrialCO2inFigure1andTable2.NotethatwefocusonsharesofindustrialemissionsandexcludeothersourcesofCO2,methane,andtheothergreenhousegases,suchaslandfillmethaneornetforestrylosses.Figure2showstheemissionsofsixlargeoilandgascompanies1910-2013andtheshiftingdominanceoflargeinvestor-ownedcompaniesthroughtheearly1970sandtherisingshareofSaudiAramcoandotherOPECproducersinthe1970s(Russia/GazpromisnotanOPECmember).Legacyemissionsofthelargest20companiesareshowninpercentofglobal1751-2013inFig.3.

Figure2.Topsixentities’CO2emissionsandmethane,1910-2013.

Figure3.Topsixentities’CO2emissionsandmethane,1910-2013.

Tothisobserveritisindisputablethateachentityhasmaterialresponsibilityforextractingandmarketingcarbonfuelsandisclearlyresponsibleforitsoperationalemissions.IcontendthesecompaniesalsohavesubstantialresponsibilityforemissionsofCO2fromitsgloballymarketedproducts.Inordertoestablishcausalresponsibilityforaproportionoftheclimatechangesandclimate-relateddamagesfromhumanemissionsofgreenhousegaseswemustfirstanalyzetheeffectsthatemissionstracedtoindividualcarbonproducershaveontheatmosphere.

WecollaboratedwithcolleaguesandscientistsatUnionofConcernedScientistsandUniversityofOxfordtomodeltheincreaseinatmosphericconcentrationofCO2andmethane(accountingforthecoolingeffectsofaerosolpollutionfromfossilfuels),theincreasedradiativeforcing,theriseinglobalmeansurfacetemperature,andtheriseinglobalsealevelsattributabletoeachcompany’sfossilfuelproductionbyyear.Ourteamcarefullydesignedthemodelingandanalysis,draftedthepaper,revisedtheapproachandthemodeluponreviewbyseveralpeers,andsubmittedthepaper

tofurthercomprehensivepeerreviewsoveraperiodofnearlyfouryears.ThepaperwaspublishedinSeptemberofthisyearinClimaticChange(Ekwurzeletal.2017).

TheCarbonMajorspaper(Heede2014)accomplishedthe1stand2ndphasesofusingscientificallyvalidapproachestoapportioningreal-worldclimatedamagestocarbonproducers.InSeptemberwemadealeapforwardinholdingproducersproportionallyaccountable(Figure4).

Figure4.Sequenceofprojectmilestonesfromfossilfuelproductiontopotentialliability

Attributionstudy(2017)InSeptemberwepublishedananalysisattributingtoeachmajorcarbonproducertheincreaseinatmosphericCO2concentration(ppm)andradiativeforcingthatwoulddriveglobaltemperatureandsealevelrise,basedoneachcompany’shistoricalemissionsprofiledevelopedinHeede2014(Ekwurzeletal.2017).TheteamincludedclimatemodelersandscientistsfromUnionofConcernedScientists,UniversityofOxford,andClimateAccountabilityInstitute.

Figure5:ContributionofTop20CarbonMajorstoriseinCO2andtemperature,1980-2010

Ekwurzeletal.2017,Fig.2:1980-2010riseinCO2,1%=1.03ppm(b);meansurfacetemperature,1%=0.008°C(d)

Usingasimpleglobalenergy-balancecoupledclimate-carbon-cyclemodel(Millaretal.2016),weestimatedtheCO2concentration,surfacetemperature,andsealevelriseattributabletoemissionsofcarbondioxideandmethanetracedtoeachentity.Themodelissensitivetothetimingoftheattributedemissions,sincemethanedecaysintheatmosphere,aerosolemissionsleadtoshort-termcooling,carboncycling,andsoforth.Theteamselectedtwoperiodsoftimeforanalysisofclimateimpacts:thefirst(1880-2010)allowsforlong-termdataonanthropogenicemissions,CO2concentration,temperatureresponse,andsealevelrise;thesecond(1980-2010)coincideswithrisingawarenessoftheclimaterisksofcontinuedfossilfuelusefollowingthepublicationoftheseminalU.S.NationalResearchCouncilreportCarbonDioxideandClimate(NRC1979;discussioninFrumhoffetal.2015,andBanerjee2015).By1980,orearlier,2nocompanycanclaimtobeunawareoftherisksofbeinginthecarbonextractionbusinesswithoutfounderingonwillfulignorance.

2Arguablyearlierthan1979:considerthereporttotheWhiteHouse(President'sScienceAdvisoryCommittee,1965),ortheStanfordResearchInstitutereportpreparedforAmericanPetroleumInstitutein1968thatwarnedthatif“CO2levelscontinuetoriseatpresentrates,itislikelythatnoticeableincreasesintemperaturecouldoccur.”SvanteArrheniushad

ThefocusoftheclimatemodelingsummarizedintheEkwurzelpaperisontheconsequencesofemissionstracedtotheninetymajorcarbonproducersfrom1980to2010.WeshowthatCO2concentration,globaltemperature,andsealevelriseattributabletothecarbonandmethanetracedtotheninetyCarbonMajorsaccountsfor0.28°C(35.1%oftotalGSMTincreaseof0.8°C)andtoglobalsealevelriseof5.7cmrisesince1880anda2.38cmriseforcarbonproductionsince1980.

Figure6:ContributionofTop20CarbonMajorstosealevelrise1880-2010and1980-2010

Ekwurzeletal.2017,Fig.2:historicalriseinglobalsealevel,1880-2010(e)and1980-2010(f),inpercent;1%=1.77mm.

Table3.TopTwelvecarbonmajors:CO2,ppmCO2,temperature,sealevelrise,&landloss,1980-2010 Emissions CO2concentration Temperature Sealevel Landloss Entity GtCO2 ppm °C mm km2SaudiAramco 36.6 3.23 0.0174 1.43 602Gazprom 27.2 2.16 0.0171 1.14 482ExxonMobil 18.7 2.78 0.0097 0.92 386NationalIranian 16.8 1.92 0.0083 0.62 261BP 16.2 2.19 0.0081 0.80 335Chevron 16.0 2.97 0.0081 0.88 370Pemex 15.7 1.37 0.0078 0.65 274RoyalDutchShell 13.4 1.87 0.0071 0.61 256CoalIndia 13.2 1.11 0.0065 0.47 200PetroleosdeVenezuela 13.1 1.12 0.0065 0.54 226PeabodyEnergy 9.0 0.86 0.0045 0.30 128ConocoPhillips 8.3 1.03 0.0043 0.38 158Subtotal 204.2 22.61 0.1054 8.73 3,678CarbonMajors,1980-2010 754.9 43.84 0.400 23.80 10,041Global,1880-20103 1,317.8 103.00 0.850 176.60 74,379

ThetwelvecompaniesinTable3whoseoperationalandproduct-relatedemissionssince1980havealreadyinundatedanestimated3,678km2oflandaroundtheworld’sshorelines(10,041km2ifallcarbonmajorsaretakenintoaccount)—mostly,ofcourse,inremoteandsparselypopulatedwarnedofglobalwarminginhispaper“ontheinfluenceofcarbonicacidintheairuponthetemperatureoftheground”in1896withuncannyaccuracyregardingthesensitivityofglobaltemperaturefromthedoublingofatmosphericCO2concentration(thoughwithscantappreciationofthefantasticalriseoffossilfueluseinthedecadesahead[from419MtCin1896to9,897MtCin2015;CDIAC]).CarrollMuffett,PresidentoftheCenterforInternationalEnvironmentalLaw(andaClimateAccountabilityInstituteboardmember)toldInsideClimateNewsthatfrom“aproductsliabilityperspective,thesedocumentsraisepotentialclaimsthatoilcompaniesfailedtowarnconsumersaboutapotentiallyseriousrisklinkedtotheirproducts.Oncethecompanieslearnedthisscience,theycan'tunlearnit.Everythingtheydidafterthisisdoneagainstthebackdropoftheinformationtheyhavefromatleastthe1950sonward.”(Banerjeeetal.2016).3Globaldatasources:increase1880-2010:98.6ppm(IPCC2013);themodelsimulationsyieldanincreaseof103ppm(EkwurzelFig1);meansurfacetemperature:bestfit~0.8°Cfor1880-2010,ofwhichallcarbonmajors0.4°C;sealevelrise:Kopp(2016reportsatwentieth-centuryGSLof12-15cm,“themodelsimulationforbestestimateparameterswithfullhistoricalforcingyieldsaGSLover1880to2010of∼18cm,”and“Removingtheannualemissionstracedto90majorcarbonproducersfromthebestestimatefullhistoricalforcingcaseshowsthatthecombustionoftheirproductsfrom1880to2010ledtoa5.7(±0.1)cmincreaseinGSL,32(±0.4)%ofthetotalanthropogeniccontributiontoincreasedGSL.Lessthanhalf(∼42%)ofthisisduetomajorcarbonproducer-tracedemissionsofrecentorigin.”Combustionoftheirproductsbetween1980and2010ledtoa2.38(±0.03)cmincrease,13.5(±0.2)%oftotalGSLincrease1880-2010.

areas.4Yetvaluableprivateandcorporateassetsarethreatened(andrequiremitigation)aswellasnaturalshorelinesofecologicalvalue.OfthegloballandareasalreadyinundatedwithemissionsattributedtothetwelvecarbonmajorsinTable3from1980forward(3,678km2),1,549km2areinNorthAmericaand577km2inEurope(42%and16%ofgloballandloss).Incomparison,PuertoRico,recentlyravagedbyhurricanesIrmaandMaria,covers9,104km2,RhodeIsland2,707km2,Estonia45,336km2,andMonaco2km2.AmongthePacificislandnationsthreatenedwithclimaterefugeestatusfrominundationinthecomingdecades,Tuvaluis26km2,MarshallIslands181km2.

Whilethecontributionsofindividualcompaniesaresmall,whenitcomestothemostvisibleimpactofsealevelrise—estimatedashavingrisen18cminthetwentiethcentury—thesenumbersnonethelessrepresentstartlinglossoflandaroundtheworld’s356,000kmcoastline(CIA2016).5

Theoceancovers362millionkm2,thusa1mmSLRisequivalentto362billionm3or362km3ofseawater.Thecombinedsealevelriseattributedtosixoftheinvestor-ownedfossilfuelcompanies—Chevron,ExxonMobil,RoyalDutchShell,Peabody,BP,andConocoPhillips—isequivalenttothewaterflowingoverNiagaraFallsfor18years.6ToquoteUCS:“Thinkaboutthat.”

UnionofConcernedScientists.

Whataresuchlossesworthtoinjuredparties,whoshouldpay,andwillthefossilfuelindustrybeheldaccountableforanyproportionofdamages?

CarrollMuffett,PresidentoftheCenterforInternationalEnvironmentalLaw,commentedthat:“LiketheCarbonMajorsanalysisthatitbuildson,thisreportdemonstratesthegrowingprecisionwithwhichmajorcarbonproducers’responsibilityforclimatechangeandclimateimpactscanbequantified,allocated,and,ultimately,litigated.Governmentinvestigatorsandprivateattorneysaroundtheworldwillbeparsingthesefindingscarefully.Investorsanddecision-makerswouldbewell-advisedtodothesame.”

IndustryactionandreactionTheoilandgasindustry,thecoalindustry,andrelatedtradeassociationshavespentdecadesdeceivingthepublicandpolicymakersaboutclimatescienceforthepurposeofperpetuatingtheprofitabilityofthecarboneconomywithoutrestraint.Standardcorporatebehaviorinthefaceofconcernsoverproductssuchaslead,asbestos,DDT,tobacco,andcarbon(Oreskes&Conway2010).

4Thesearepreliminarycalculationsofestimatedlandlossattributedtoemissionstracedtomajorcarbonproducersasdiscussedabove.Ibasethecalculationsonadatabaseofgloballandinundationfromaprojected1-metersealevelrise,90-meterresolutionofcoastlines,andscaleddowntothe2.38-cmSLRinEkwurzeletal.paperfor1980-2010.IntheCIESINdatabase,globalSLRof1mequatesto421,174km2ofinundatedland(CenterforInternationalEarthScienceInformationNetwork,viewedOct2017),and1mmequatesto421km2,assumingthattheslopeofinundatedlandsisequaltotheslopeofprojectedSLR.SeeTable3forSLRattributedtoeachmajorcarbonproducer,1980-2010.AnyerrorsofinterpretationoruseoftheCIESINdataistheauthor’s.TheCIESINmodelalsohasuncertainties;seeMondal&Tatem.5Othersourcesestimatetheworld’sshorelinesat1.6millionkmattheresolutionrequiredtodiscernbays,islets,andfjords—inotherwords,real-worldcoastlines.Forexample,Norway’s“official”coastlineis25,148km,buthigherresolutionimagingshows83,281km(CIA2016),andnewresearchputsitat101,400km(Klinkenborg,2013).6Wikipediacitesanaverageflowrateof2,400m3/s,whichequalsanannualflowof74.8billionm3=74.8km3,and1,347km3over18years.Thesixcitedcompaniestotal3.88mmofSLRfrom1980-2010,whichconverts(362km3/mmSLR)to1,404km3.Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niagara_Falls.Seealsohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niagara_River

Companiesshiftedstrategyoncepublicacceptance,basedoncorporatedisinformation,hadtakenrootthatsciencewastoouncertainforlegislativeactiononclimate.Thepublicremainsdeeplyconfusedtothisday,thoughimproving(Leiserowitzetal.).Conservativesandclimatedeniersarequicktoraisethespectreofthecostsandemploymentconsequencesofclimateaction,regardlessoftheevidencethattacklingclimatechangegrowstheeconomyandemployment.Most,ifnotall,oilandgascompaniesmeasure,mitigate,andreportonemissionsofCO2andmethaneinannualsustainabilityreportsandtothirdpartiessuchasGRIorCDP.Mostcompanieshavemadesignificantprogressinreducingdirectandindirectoperationalemissions(WRIScope1andScope2sources)overthelastdecadeortwoFig.7a),althoughfewhavereducedthecarbonintensityoftheirsupplychains(Fig.7b)(Heede,forthcoming)—muchlessemissionsfromcarbonresourcesextracted,refined,anddeliveredtoconsumersworldwideasdiscussedabove(Fig.2&8).

Figure7a:Operationalemissions(scope1+2) Fig.7b:carbonintensities,kgCO2/boe

Amorethreateningreactionistoharassresearch,scientific,andadvocacyorganizations,eitherindirectly(throughBreitbartNewsorotherclimatedenialbloggers)ordirectly,withsubpoenas.ClimateAccountabilityInstitute,mepersonally,andanumberofourcolleaguesandfundershavebeenharassedbyinvestigationsandsubpoenasfromtheU.S.HouseofRepresentatives(CommitteeonScience,Space,andTechnology)byChairmanLamarSmith,aproudclimatedenier(Smith2017:“weareseeingbeneficialchangestotheearth'sgeography”)andaprofligateissuerofsubpoenas,aswellassubpoenasfromExxonMobil.Discretionpreventsmefromelaboratinghere,excepttosaythatthesubpoenasrelatetotheinvestigationbyNewYorkAGSchneidermanandMassAGHealeyofExxonMobilforpotentialconsumerandinvestorfraud(Gillis&Krauss2015,Schwartz2016a).Mr.Smith,forhispart,wasinvestigatingourallegedcoordinatedattemptto“deprivecompanies,non-profitorganizations,andscientistsoftheirFirstAmendmentrightsandabilitytofundandconductscientificresearchfreeintimidationandthreatsofprosecution.”NottheFirstAmendmentRightsofresearchscientistsandadvocacyorganizations,mindyou,butExxonMobil’s.Mostoilandgasandcoalcompaniesdoinvestinlow-andnon-carbonenergysourcesandotherformsofmitigation—butformostitisaminisculepercentageofcapitalexpenditures(typically<1-2%),andfewcompaniesareinvestingseriouslyincarboncaptureandstorage.Moreover,mostmajoroil&gascompaniesprojectdramaticovershootofglobalCO2emissionsinthedecadesahead(ExxonMobil,BP,RoyalDutchShell;seeFrumhoffetal.2015,andCarbonTracker2014).Figure8showsemissionpathwaysforfour“representativeconcentrationpathways”—RCP2.6,4.5,6.0,and8.5ofIPCCscenarios—ofwhichRCP2.6isconsideredclosetothepathwayforglobalwarmingguardrailof≤2°C.Thefigureshowstheovershootforecastsofmajoroil&gascompanies,whichareinvestingheavily(>$700billionperyear)innewresourcesandreserves,whileclaiming(withoutfoundation,inmyview,seeHeede&Oreskes2016)thatmeetinggrowingdemandforcarbonfuelsisjustifiedtoalleviateenergypoverty.Theimplicitthreatisthatthecompaniesaimtocontinueto

profitfrommaximizingproductionoverseveraldecades,relyingonthecontinuanceofpoliciesinadequatetocurtailcarbonemissionsinlinewiththe2°Cguardrail,muchless1.5°C.

Figure8:globalpathwaysandindustryforecastingofemissions.

Frumhoffetal.2015.

Science-basedtargetsforoil,naturalgas,andcoalcompaniesIfwearetoachieveglobalreductionsinenergy-relatedCO2andmethaneemissionsthatmeettheobjectivesoftheParisAccord,thenitisincumbent,inthisobserver’sopinion,onindustrytotakethelead,notsimplywaitforpoliticalleaderstomaketheneededpolicyinitiatives.Thecurrentsetofpolicyinitiativesareinadequatetothetask(Germanwatch2017,Rogeljetal.2016),particularlyintheUnitedStates(wheretheTrumpAdministration’sdeplorablepoliciesareintendedtoincreasefossilfuelproduction,consumption,andexports),Canada,Japan,Russia,China,andAustralia.Itistimeforthecarboncompaniestoassertleadershipratherthanthepassivedo-nothingattitudetheyhavebeenprofitablyhidingbehindfordecades.Leadingoil&gascompaniesarebeginningtoseethewritingonthewallthataligningproductionandinvestmentwithscience-basedtargetsisaquestionofresponsivenesstoinvestorconcerns,andtoregulatorsandlitigators,andperhapsevenanexistentialinquiryforhowtosurviveinthe21stCentury.Progressivecompaniesgoagooddealfurtherinorientingtheirstrategiestoprosperundersevereclimaterestraints.IrankStatoil,TotalSA,Shell,andBPasthemostvisionaryinthisregardandthatsupportthetransitionwithsignificantinvestmentinashifttonaturalgas(manycompaniesaredoingthis;netbenefitsdependonCH4leakage),reducingoperationalemissions,mitigation,carboncaptureandstorage,and,mostimportantly,low-orzero-carbonalternatives.

Weanalyzedthereservesandinvestmentoptionsforoneoil&gascompanyinordertounderstanditscarbonintensityandemissionpathwayoutto2050(Fariaetal.2016;Figure9).

Figure9:O&Gcompanycarbonintensitypathwayformeetingscience-basedtargetof≤2°C

Faria,Griffin,&Heede,2016.

Similaranalyseswillincreasinglybeconductedbyprogressiveoil&gascompaniesandbyClimateAccountabilityInstituteandourcolleagues.Theinitialfocusislikelytobeonmeasurestoreduceoperational(scope1&2)sourcesthataligncompanyemissionswiththe2°Cpathway(orless);productemissionswillalsoneedtobeaccountedforascompanieslearntoaimhigher.

LegalimplicationsThescientificcontributionstowardtheattributionofresponsibilityfortheemissionstraceabletomajorcarbonproducerssince1854(basedonHeede2014)andtherecentattributionofclimateimpacts—mostvisiblyandviscerallywithrespecttosealevelrise—implicatesthefossilfuelindustryincausingsignificantandgrowingdamagestolifeandproperty(Frank,2017).Thelegalpressureissuretomount,andwealreadyseethefirstcasesemergeinGermany(RWE;Collyns2015TheGuardian,Schwartz2016bNewYorkTimes),andmostrecentlyincomplaintsfiledagainsttwentycarbonmajorsbyMarinCounty,SanMateoCounty,andImperialBeachinCaliforniainJulyofthisyear(SherEdlingLaw;seeWestervelt2017,Rosenfeld2017),andbyCityofSanFranciscoandCityofOaklandinSeptember(HagensBermanLaw;seeInsideCimateNews).

Individualcompaniesarechallengedbyinvestigationsofconsumerandinvestorfraudandofhumanrightsviolations.NewYorkAttorneyGeneralEricSchneidermanandMassachusettsAGMauraHealeylaunchedaninvestigationofExxonMobilin2015(Gillis&Krauss,2015,NewYorkTimes);thePhilippinesCommissiononHumanRightslaunchedaninvestigationofhumanrightsviolationsby40majoroil,gas,andcoalcompanies(Howard,2016,TheGuardian).

Morecasesaresuretoariseseekingcompensationorinjunctivereliefforfossilfuelcompanies’contributiontoclimatechangeandtoclimatedamages.Universityendowments,investors,andretirementfundmanagerswillcontinuetochallengethebusinessplansoffossilfuelcompaniesandtradeassociationsforperpetuatinghighlevelsofoil,gas,andcoalproductionwithoutsufficientconcernforglobalclimateimpacts,andtodivestfromcarboncompanies,aswilllenders,insurers,andunderwriters.Investorsandlendersareincreasinglyawareoftheriskofpotentialstrandedassets.Policymakersmayacttoeliminateperverseandmarket-distortingfossilfuelsubsidiesandtheadditionalcarbonresourcestippedfromuneconomictorecoverablebyvirtueofthesubsidies(Ericksonetal.),andaddresstheenormousmisallocationofcapitalandenvironmentaldamages

fromcarbonsubsidies(Coadyetal.,Nucitelli).Politicalcampaigncontributionsbyfossilfuelcompaniesmaybecurtailed(unlikely).Industryfundingofclimatedenialanddeceptioncampaigns(Brulle,UCS2015),falseadvertising(Supran&Oreskes),namingclimatescience“fakenews”(Davenport&Lipton),andthelikewillflag.Societywillfightback(Klein2014,McKibben2016).

Whitheraccountability?Considerablebenefitshaveaccruedtothesemajorcarbonproducers,andtotheirindividualandinstitutionalinvestorsandstatesponsors.Giventhis,itseemsreasonabletoarguethattheyhaveanethicalobligationtohelpaddressclimatedestabilization(Gardiner2011,Shue2017).Moreover,manyoftheseentities—bothstate-andinvestor-owned—possessthefinancialresourcesandtechnicalcapabilitiestodevelopandcontributetoclimatechangemitigation,adaptation,recovery,andremedyforaworldinperil.

Thesecompanieshavehelpedadvancesocietiesandprovidedpowerandcomforttocivilization.Theconsequencesofemittingincreasingamountsofcarbondioxidefromtheuseoffossilfuelswerenotsufficientlyappreciateduntil,say,1980—whereuponitbecameincumbentonthefossilfuelindustrytoleadtheconversationandhelpresolvethedilemmaofhowtocopewithclimatechange.Thistheindustrylargelyfailedtodo.Thecompanieshavecontributedthelion’sshareofglobalCO2emissions,andtheynowhaveamoral—andperhapslegal—obligationtoinvestinfossilemissionreductionandalternatives,aswellastocontributetoadaptationcosts,andleadthewayinaligningtheworldeconomytowardalowercarbonfuture.

PeterFrumhoff,co-authorandUCSdirectorofscienceandpolicy,pointsoutthat“taxpayers,includingthoselivinginvulnerablecoastalcommunities,shouldnotalonehavetopaythehighcostsofthesecompanies'irresponsibledecisions.”(Seetheexcellentop-edbyFrumhoff&Allen.)

HenryShue,UniversityofOxford,Dept.ofPoliticsandInternationalRelations,saidinhisdeeplyinsightfulCommentarytoourpaperthat:

“Investor-ownedcompanieshavelongunderstoodtheharmoftheirproducts,yetcarriedoutadecades-longcampaigntosowdoubtsaboutthoseharmsinordertoensurefossilfuelswouldremaincentraltoglobalenergyproduction.Companiesknowinglyviolatedthemostbasicmoralprincipleof'donoharm,'andnowtheymustremedytheharmtheycaused.”

Inclosing,IcansayitnobetterthantheeditorsofTheGuardiandidinSeptemberasHurricaneIrmawasbarrelingtowardFlorida:

“Fossil-fuelcompaniesshouldbeheldaccountablefortheeffectsofclimatechange.Legalwarfarehasatwo-foldaim:tooverhaultransgressors’businessmodelssothattheyareinlinewiththeglobalcommit-menttophaseoutfossilfuelsandlimittemperaturerisesto1.5°C;andtogetthemtopayfordamagesresultingfromglobalwarming.Climatelitigationistheinevitableresultofafailureoftwodecadesoftalks.Butitisalsoanimportantwayofreframingtheclimatecrisisasahumanrightsemergency.”

~~~•~~~

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