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Mathematical Models forEarthquake Simulations: Forwardand Inverse Model Applications
on North Anatolian Fault Zone
Department of Civil Engineering
andEarth uake En ineerin Research Center, METU,
Ayeg!l AskanDecember 1, 2015
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Introduction: Ground Motion Modeling
Three main issues (by Seismo. Soc. of Amer. 190!:1. the "hysical earth#ua$e e%ent itself (&hen'
&here' ho&!
. the associated ground motions
). the e*ect on the structures
u0
td
+edroc$
Softer Soil ,ayers
Structures
Source
------..
--
ath/*ects
Site
/*ects
Structurales"onse
a(t!
a(t!
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2e3nitions: 4or&ard and In%erse GroundMotion Simulations
u0
td
+edroc$
Softer Soil ,ayers
Structures
Source
------..
--
ath
/*ects
Site/*ects
Am"li3cations
Structuraes"ons
a(t!
a(t!4or&ard GroundMotion Modeling
In%erse GroundMotion Modeling
5sourcein%ersion
5material
in%ersion
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4or&ard and In%erse Ground MotionModeling in ,arge +asins
"ro#lem$modeling and forecasting groundmotion in large basins &ith heterogeneousmaterial "ro"erties
%igni&cance$design and assessment "rocess inha6ard mitigation
'verall o#(ectives$
5to de%elo" the ca"ability for generating
realistic #road#and ground motionusingimproved models of com"le7 basin geology andearth#ua$e sources )*hy inversion+
5to use that ca"ability to modeland forecast
strong ground motions
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5
Challenges$
5irregular geometry
5heterogeneity and uncertainty in geological and
source "arameters5s"atial %ariation of soil "ro"erties re#uires high8resolution models and solutions
5di*erent natures of high and lo& fre#uencymotionsTools$Su"ercom"uters along &ith %ariousnumerical techni#ues' material databases
4or&ard and In%erse Ground MotionModeling in ,arge +asins
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6
ontents
In%erse models for %elocity structures (I.Theoretical' II. 4ield &or$!
4or&ard models (2eterministic andStochastic!
,imitations of these techni#ues
A""lications in orth&estern Tur$ey:;alidation of ground motion estimations &ith
a ma
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re%ious >or$ (A$celi$ et al. 00)!
5/lastic )2 &a%eform in%ersion
5eed to be im"ro%ed for the anelastic losses in soil media
5A ne& 2 model including anelasticity
54aster o"timi6er?
5Intrinsic attenuation (dam"ing! in soil media is re"resentedusing mechanical analogs and #uality factor @ B1C6 atresonance fre#uencyD
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8
fvut
u=+
)]([
2
2
t
uv
t
v
=+
u and %: the state %ariables'
E: the shear modulus'
: the rela7ation fre#uencyof the S,S': the s"ring constant ofthe S,S'f: the source function.
Soln. Techni#ue: 4inite /lement in s"ace and 4inite 2i*erence intime
6
/
6
)min( maxmin fVwavelengthh S=a%eform Modeling (,imitations!
,o& fre#uencies (L1 6!eed a &ell8de3ned and high8resolution )2 %elocity model ofthe region of interest
om"uting "o&er
Seismic stations and muchdata to %alidate
igh fre#uencies (1 6!eed to $no& the regionalin"ut em"irical "arameters ("ath'duration' geometric s"readingetc!
om"uting "o&erSeismic stations and muchdata to %alidate
Am"li3cations? (Again at least12 %elocity models re#uired?!
Lets look at what we have done (and what we could notdo) for Turkey
in terms of forward and inverse modeling
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Ground Motion Simulations
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%tochastic "oint:%ource M)descriptions #y Atkinson et al;, 0
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1 The %eterministic aspects are speci6ie%b5 the
aera4e #ourier spectrum, t5picall5 as a 6unction o6
ma4nitu%e an% %istance31 The stochastic aspects are treate% b5mo%elin4 the
motions as noise 7ith the speci6ie% un%erl5in4
spectrum3
1 The point"source assumption is reasonable 7henthesource"to"site %istance is much lar4er than the
source %imensions
%tochastic "oint:%ource
Modeling)descriptions #y Atkinson et al;, 0
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#ault is assumme% to be a 6inite rectan4ular plane an% %ii%e% into
sub6aults3
$ach sub6ault is assumme% to be a point source 7ith an 89spectrum3
roun% motions 6rom each sub6ault are summe% 7ith a time %ela5 in or%er
to obtain the 4roun% motion acceleration 6rom the entire 6ault as rupture
starts 6rom the h5pocenter:
a(t);
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Finite'Fault Source Models$Fi#ure adapted from (isada) !**+) ,ournal of
Seismolo#-&
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Finite'Fault Source
Models
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Finite'Fault Source
Models
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.eferences:
/kkar, S3, ommer, ?3?3 (900@)3 Are%iction o6 elastic %isplacement response spectra in $urope an% the
i%%le $ast, Earthquake Engng Struct. Dyn, 36, B9@"B&0B3 eresne, +3, an% 3 3 /tkinson (B@)3 o%elin4 6inite"6ault ra%iation 6rom the 7 nspectrum, Bull. Seism.
Soc. Am.87, E@ " FG3
oore, D3 3 (BF&)3 Stochastic simulation o6 hi4h"6re2uenc5 4roun% motions base% on seismolo4ical mo%els
o6 the ra%iate% spectra, Bull.Seism. Soc. Am. 73, BFEBFG3
oore, D3 3 (BFG)3 !se o6 seismoscope recor%s to %etermine Ian% peak elocities, Bull. seism. Soc.
Am., 74, &B&9G3
ulkan, A3, *alkan, $3 (9009)3 /ttenuation mo%elin4 o6 recent earth2uakes in Turke5, Journal of Seismology6, &@"G03
Herrmann, J33 (BF)3 /n extension o6 Jan%om ibration Theor5 estimates o6 stron4 4roun% motion to lar4e
earth2uakes,Bull. Seis. Soc. Am. 75,BGG@BG&3
aroei%is 3 A3, Aapa4eor4iou /3 S3 (900&)3 / mathematical representation o6 near"6ault 4roun% motions,
Bull. Seism. Soc. Am.93, B0BB&B3
otae%ian, D3, an% 3 3 /tkinson (900)3 Stochastic 6inite"6ault mo%elin4 base% on a D5namic Corner
#re2uenc5, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 95,B0B03
-akamura, K3 (BF)3 / metho% 6or %5namic characteristics estimation o6 subsur6ace usin4 microtremor onthe 4roun% sur6ace, QR RTRI 30,9&&3
!4urhan, 3 an% /3 /skan (900)3 Stochastic Stron4 roun% otion Simulation o6 the B9 -oember B
DLce (Turke5) $arth2uake !sin4 a D5namic Corner #re2uenc5 /pproach, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. in
reision3
!lusa5, J3, Tunca5, $3, Sonme H3, okceo4lu C3 (900G)3 /n attenuation base% on Turkish stron4 motion
%ata an% iso"acceleration map o6 Turke5, Engineering eology74, 9E"9B3
!mutlu, -3, *3 *oketsu, an% C3 ilkereit (900G)3 The rupture process %urin4 the B Duce, Turke5,earth2uake 6rom joint inersion o6 teleseismic an% stron4"motion %ata, Tectono!hysics39B, &B &9G3
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Sources: 4ault Nones in Tur$ey
/k5u et al3, 9009, BSSA
590O of the total area islocated in seismically acti%eregions
5 9P O of its "o"ulation beingunder earth#ua$e threat
5Mostly reinforced concrete andbric$ masonry structures
5a"id ground and structural%ulnerability assessmenttechni#ues: deterministic andstochastic a""roaches
!tkucu et al3, 900&, JI
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52u6ce' +olu' Qaynasli: orth&estern to&ns hit by t&oM&R F earth#ua$es in less than ) months? 1999 Qocaeliand 2u6ce earth#ua$es
5Acti%e faults around industrial facilities in > Tur$ey
5Ma
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orth&est of A4N
o %elocity model' not e%en for Istanbul that is
su""osed to be &or$ed on really hard bygeo"hysicists
/7isting models are coarse ("oorly resol%ed and
mostly in the dee"er structure 1$m' $m etc!Geotechnical engineers' on the other hand' aremostly concerned &ith the to"most layers
>e do not $no& &hat goes on bet&een )0m and1000 m most of the time? (&here the most of theseismic am"li3cationsC attenuations ta$e "lace!
2o &e ha%e to drill do&n to $ms in urban regions
?'
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assi%e Seismic /7"eriments (ollaboration &ithrof. Asten!S"atial Autocorrelation Techni#ue:4or a "lane &a%e "assing "airs ofstations' coherency a%eraged in a6imuth ' gi%es(f) = e i k.rd = Jo (k.r)&herek = 2 f / C(f) (A$i' 19PF'19P!
52N' +K, stations (both
ma
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May 7th, 201027
D Z C S t a t i n
" 0 0
" G 0 0
" & 0 0
" 9 0 0
" B 0 0
0
0 0 0 B 0 0 0 B 0 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0
! " # m $ " %
D
e
&
t
'
#
m
%
( ) * S t a t i n
" 0 0
" G 0 0
" & 0 0
" 9 0 0
" B 0 0
0
0 9 0 0 G 0 0 E 0 0 F 0 0 B 0 0 0
! " # m $ " %
D
e
&
t
'
#
m
%
D Z C S t a t i n
" 0 0
" G 0 0
" & 0 0
" 9 0 0
" B 0 0
0
0 0 0 B 0 0 0 B 0 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 0
! " # m $ " %
D
e
&
t
'
#
m
%
( ) * S t a t i n
" 0 0
" G 0 0
" & 0 0
" 9 0 0
" B 0 0
0
0 9 0 0 G 0 0 E 0 0 F 0 0 B 0 0 0
! " # m $ " %
D
e
&
t
'
#
m
%
assi%e Seismic /7"eriments (Asten et al.'01!
1+n pro4ress 6orcomparison 7ith lo4s
an% other metho%s
1/mpli6ications 6rom
%i66erent techni2ues
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a5 @th, 90B0 2828
A""lication: Stochastic Simulation of the1999 2U6ce /arth#ua$e
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In"ut arameters of the 1999 2U6ce e#.(Jgurhan and As$an' 010' +SSA!
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3030
;alidation at Strong Motion Stations (Jgurhanand As$an' 010' +SSA!
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3131
om"arison of Synthetics &ith egional andGlobal GM/s (Jgurhan and As$an' 010' +SSA!
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3232
orrelation of Kbser%ed 2amage &ithSimulated Ground Motion 2istribution (Jgurhanand As$an' 010' +SSA!
simulated GA%alues are com"ared&ith the obser%eddamage
damage de3ned interms of Mean2amage atio (M2!
)(
),(),(
"N
"DSN"DS#$ =
=DS
$ DSDR"DS#"MDR )(),()(
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LAuila !"taly# $arthua%&!A'ril 2009#()urhan, As%an, A%in*i, Mala)nini !2012#
/pril 9th, 90BB 33
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LAuila !"taly# $arthua%&!A'ril 2009#
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LAuila !"taly# $arthua%&!A'ril 2009#
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an &e really lin$ simulations &ith "ractice(Jgurhan' /rberi$ and As$an' 011' A"ril' +SSA!
Identi3cation ofGround Motions
4ragilityInformation of the
+uilding Stoc$
/arth#ua$e,oss /stimation
+ne
Cm&ete
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an &e really lin$ simulations &ith "ractice(Jgurhan' /rberi$ and As$an' 011' A"ril' +SSA!
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Ground Motion Simulations (Tur$ey case!
2eterministic scenarios4inite8fault simulations (/VSIM' Mota6edian andAt$inson' 00P!
A range of M&B P8F.P on 2u6ce fault
4ault area (>ells and o""ersmith' 199!' stress dro"(Mohammadioun and Ser%a' 001!' random sli"distributions
Site am"li3cations are estimated from "re%iousdata C; ratios (a "assi%e seismic testing "ro
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a5 @th, 90B0 39
Ground Motion 2istributions (GA! of Scenario/arth#ua$es
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4040
4ragility Analyses5reference fragility cur%es &ere deri%ed for the s"eci3c regionalbuilding ty"es (/rberi$' 00H' /#. /ngr. Struct. 2yn.!
5C: lo&8mid rise' including degradation "ro"erties of concrete'masonry: number of storeys' material ty"e and #uality' regularityin "lan' o"enings in &alls
5"usho%er analysis of ty"ical buildings under a range of in"utground motions
5%alidated using GM/=s for the ma
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4141
4ragility Analyses
4or cities of +olu' 2u6ce' and QaynaWlX:
54or each magnitude M&' GA and G; distributionsare estimated in cells
5+uilding ty"e distribution and numbers in the cellsare estimated
5/ach building ty"e is associated &ith its fragility
52amage ratios are calculated for three ,imit States(Y,' M' SY! from the syntetic GACG; distributions
as the in"ut ground motion
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a5 @th, 90B0 42
an &e really lin$ simulations &ith "racticeZ/S(Jgurhan' /rberi$ and As$an' 011' A"ril' +SSA!
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$/rid#in#& the #ap 0etweenseismolo#- and en#ineerin#
ost o6 the loss estimation stu%ies are either at
a 4lobal scale
Mr contraril5 6ocus on onl5 a set o6 buil%in4s
The %etaile% 6ocus is either on site response or
4roun% motion mo%elin4 or buil%in4 response
43
$ id i & h 0
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$/rid#in#& the #ap 0etweenseismolo#- and en#ineerin#
44
Can 7e actuall5 estimate seismic
losses in a cit5 usin4 onl5 locall5"%erie% componentsN
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Regionalseismic actiit5 (oth Arobabilistic an%Deterministic #rame7ork 6or 4roun% motions )Iocal site con%itions (elocit5 mo%elsO)Distinct !ro!ertieso6 the buil%in4 stock o6 interest
The results to be use%Haar% miti4ation
Disaster mana4ement+nsurance premiums
)b-ective
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Stud- Area: Er%incan
46
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ask 12 Site 3onditions$Askan et al2 !*14&
47
aresca et al3 900E
icrotremors: SA/C metho% (/sten, 9000P 9009)
1#ast1Jelatiel5 cheaper1Can resole %eeper la5ers 7ith the a%%ition o6 HSJ
in6ormation
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ask 12 Site 3onditions
48
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ask 12 Site 3onditions
49
ask 5 "eterministic
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ask 52 "eterministic6round Motion Scenarios
50
100
101
101
102
103
104
10
5 Station ERC
FAS
(cm/sec)
re%uenc& (*+)
NS
EW
Synthetic
1
1
1
1
1
FAS
(cm/sec)
-500
0
500
NS
-500
0
500
A
cceleration(cm/sec2)
EW
10 30 50 70 90-500
0
500
Time (Sec)
Synthetic
-100
0
100
NS
-100
0
100
A
cceleration(cm/sec2)
EW
10 20 30 40-100
0
100
Time (Sec)
Synthetic
-
-
A
cceleration(cm/sec2)
-
100
101
101
102
103
104
10
5 Station REF
FAS
(cm/sec)
NS
EW
Synthetic
re%uenc& (*+) re%uenc& (*+)
1 er5 sparsel5 monitore% until recentl51B9 (7;E3E) earth2uake is recor%e% b5 onl5 & stations1T7o approaches: B3 Aure stochastic, 93 H5bri% simulations1ali%ation o6 this mainshock (/skan et al3, 90B&)
ask 5 "eterministic
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ask 52 "eterministic6round Motion Scenarios
51
./ #66% ! #cm$"%./ #66% #g%./ #66% S #033 "% #g% ./ #66% S #10 "% #g%
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ask 52 "eterministic6round Motion Scenarios
./ #70% #g% ./ #70% ! #cm$"%
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ask 72 /uildin# Fra#ilit-Functions Mn site structural classi6ication
B9 JC, asonr5 sub"classes
D5namic properties o6 each sub"classes
(perio%, %uctilit5, etc)
onte"carlo samplin4
Detaile% nonlinear anal5ses 7ithin
MA$-S$$S plat6orm
53
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ask 72 /uildin# Fra#ilit-Functions roun% motions are taken 6rom the scenarios
in Task &3
/ set o6 motions inclu%in4 arious 7 alues,
at ar5in4 source"site %istances an% sitecon%itions
Mbjectie is to encounter the local seismic
%eman% on buil%in4s o6 interest
54
Generation of 4ragility ur%es
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Generation of 4ragility ur%es
A [ IS R A ]
ask 7 /uildin# Fra#ilit-
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ask 72 /uildin# Fra#ilit-Functions
56
pro
babilit5
o6excee%an
ce
A (cms)
A (cms)
probabilit5
o6e
xcee%ance
probabilit5
o6excee%ance
A (cms)
p
robabilit5
o6excee%a
nce
A (cms)
" 3 i
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"ama#e 3omparison:188! Event
57
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S d 9h i
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Summar- and 9hat isnet;-ext: Ioss estimations base% on selecte% scenarios
H5bri% 4roun% motion simulations
+nte4rate% $arth2uake Simulations (Cit5"
buil%in4 mo%els) 7ith Aro63Hori
$conomic an% social losses at cit5"leel
+nsurance premiums (DoneO )
A'ril 21, 201059
ll b ti d < t
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olloborations and ro
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Thank 5ou3
/5se4ul /skan: aaskanmetu3e%u3tr
http:blo43metu3e%u3traaskan
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