CEEH Energy System Optimisation Kenneth Karlsson Risø DTU, National Laboratory for Sustainable...

CEEH Energy System Optimisation

Kenneth Karlsson

Risø DTU ,

National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy

Technical University of Denmark

kenneth.karlsson@risoe.dk

Optimisation loop

Energy System model

EmissionsExternalities

Economic development etc.

Centre for Energy, Environment and Health

Energy System Modelling – 2005 to 2050

Energy demand:

Transport energyElectricityHeatFuels

- from all sectors

Energy supply:

Power plantsBoilersEnergy storageHydrogen productionBio-fuels

Macro economic factors

Fuel pricesHardware pricesExternalities

System priceselectricitydistrict heathydrogenbiofuels

Energy demand

System optimization by minimising total system costs

Costs of health related externalities

Costs of other externalities(climate change, nature etc.)

• Geography– Countries– regions– areas

• Time resolution– e.g. 5 years step simulation– 52 weeks with 5 time steps

• Endogenous investments– power/heating plants– heat storage– electrolysers, heat pumps– transmission lines …etc.

Balmorel

D K - E

D K - WS E-S

S E - M

SE -N

FI

NO -S

N O - M

N O - N

• Linear optimisation model of the energy system• Minimising total yearly costs in the system

• Constraints – balance equations, like:– power balance (at any time step production has to equal demand)– heat balance– hydrogen balance etc.

and limitations, like:– resource limits (e.g. max available biomass resource)

Balmorel

Electricity

District heat

Hydrogen

Bio-fuels

Energy productionCarBusTrainAirSea

TrucksVansTrainSeaAir

people

goods

Transport

Household

Industry,trade and service

AppliancesHeat lossHeat supply

AppliancesHeat lossHeat supplyProces energy

Air emissions and waste products

Fuel costs, investment costs, taxes, externalities

Linear optimisation models

• Will always choose the cheapest solution• If no restrictions/constraints, there will be one dominating

technology

• Example of change in costs for power producing technologies when including externalities –

using www.recabs.org

www.recabs.org

Biomass

Offshorewind

Gas CC CHP

Coal CHP

www.recabs.org

Biomass

Offshorewind

Gas CC CHP

Coal CHP

CO2-price = 300 DKK/t ~ 40 €/t

Some Balmorel results

Win

d and b

iom

ass

CO2-price = 150 DKK/t ~ 20 €/t

Some Balmorel results

Win

d and c

oal

Some Balmorel results

Tank you for your attention

Seeking Collaboration Partners

Global energy andemission scenarios

Global/regionalair pollutionmodelling

Regional/local air pollutionmodelling

Effects in Denmark

regional energy/emission

scenarios

Within CEEHOutside CEEH

“Optimal” future energy system

D K - E

D K - WS E-S

S E - M

SE -N

FI

NO -S

N O - M

N O - N

Balmorel (www.balmorel.com)

Global scenariosIPCC

Boundaryconditions