Central Calif. Winegrowers and Calif. Assoc. of Winegrape Growers 2006 Winegrape Symposium

Central Calif. Winegrowers and Calif. Assoc. of Winegrape

Growers 2006 Winegrape Symposium

“San Joaquin Valley San Joaquin Valley Grapes Grapes

= Quality Value Wine”= Quality Value Wine”November 29th and 30th, 2006Pardini’s, Fresno, California

How is the SJV poised to compete?

What must we do?Greg Livengood, Joseph W. Ciatti Co.,

LLCSan Rafael, CA 415/458-5150 www.ciatti.com

USA vs. WorldChina

4%

Portugal3%

So. Africa3%

Germany3%

Australia5%

Argentina5%

Spain14%

Chile2%

USA 8%

Italy18%

France20%

Rest of World15%

USA

8% of Production

USA

5% of Vine Acres

7.66B Gals (45M tons)•Source: OIV

Cost of Ocean Freight

Approx. US$0.80 per gal

Imports• Pinot Grigio

• Pinot Noir

• Riesling

• Long Inventories in S. America & Australia

Australian Production

1.24

1.491.64

1.49

1.912.11 2.03

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

In Millions of Tons

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Chile Annual Production

0.67

1.00

0.86 0.88

1.050.99

1.241.33

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

In Millions of Tons

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Argentina Grape Production

2.502.30

2.202.00

2.40

2.10 2.10

2.50

2.87 2.87

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Tons in Millions

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

2.10

1.00

2.30

0.59

2.18

0.36

2.23

0.60

2.17

0.74

2.89

1.00

2.53

0.64

2.61

0.57

3.32

0.63

3.01

0.36

3.10

0.68

2.86

0.51

2.78

0.84

3.76

0.57

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

Tons in Millions

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Statewide Grape Crush, 1992 - 2005

Winegrape Other Crush

+33% +27%

+35%

Dry White Wine

$0.76

$1.45

$2.10

$1.00

$1.50

$1.85

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

U.S. $ per Gal

Argentina Australia Calif. Chile Europe S. Africa

Dry Red Wine

$0.95

$1.30

$2.25

$1.00

$1.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

U.S. $ per Gal

Argentina Australia Calif. Chile Europe S. Africa

Cabernet Sauvignon Wine

$1.70$1.50

$2.50

$1.10

$2.00 $1.85

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

U.S. $ per Gal

Argentina Australia Calif. Chile Europe S. Africa

Merlot Wine

$1.70$1.50

$2.85

$1.25

$2.00$2.25

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

U.S. $ per Gal

Argentina Australia Calif. Chile Europe S. Africa

Syrah (Shiraz) Wine

$1.70$1.50

$2.50

$1.50

$2.25

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

U.S. $ per Gal

Argentina Australia Calif. Chile Europe S. Africa

Chardonnay Wine

$2.50

$1.45

$2.65 $2.50 $2.50$2.75

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

U.S. $ per Gal

Argentina Australia Calif. Chile Europe S. Africa

Currency Exchange Rates

2000 $0.52

2001 $0.52

2002 $0.56

2003 $0.72

2004 $0.77

2005 $0.74

2006 $0.78

2000 $0.86

2001 $0.90

2002 $0.99

2003 $1.20

2004 $1.33

2005 $1.18

2006 $1.32

AUD 1.00 = US EURO 1.00 = US

California Exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

In Millions of Gallons

2003 2004 2005 2006 Est.

Bulk Case

76.46M Gals94.13M Gals

91.27M GalsEst. 92.33M Gals

440,000 Tons540,000 Tons

520,000 TonsEst. 530,000 Tons

Source: Gomberg Fredrikson Report; State Board of Equalization

SJV StrengthsSJV Strengths• White Zinfandel

• Zinfandel

• Ruby Cabernet

• Colombard

• Competitive Varietals

Major Export Mkts for SJV Wines

• Canada

• Germany

• Scandinavia

• UK

• Asia

E- NewsletterE- NewsletterTo sign up for our E-Newsletter

“Ciatti Insight”

Email Lora atLora@ciatti.com

Thank You for your time and Attention

Greg LivengoodJoseph W. Ciatti Co., LLC

T.415/458-5150www.ciatti.com