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Outlook
Status Challenge
2017
Yunnan Tin Group (Holding) Company Limited
China Tin Industry Status and Outlook
Song Xingcheng
CONTENTS
Current Situation of China Tin Industry 01
Challenges Facing China Tin Industry 02
Outlook of China Tin Industry 03
01 4. Tin trade continues net import with growth of
imported raw material
5. Tin market is oversupplied with low volatility of price
I、Current Situation of China Tin Industry
1. China Tin reserves is decreasing year by year
2. Resources and smelting industries are centralized
3. Industry technology is leading the world
1 China Tin reserves is decreasing year by year
I、Current Situation of China Tin Industry
- China basic tin reserves:
1,100kt (by end 2016)
23.40% of global
- Output is far more than
new reserves increase
- Tin reserves is decreasing
Static mine life < 7 years
Tin reserves World China
Resources and smelting industries are centralized 2
98% Resources
located in 6 provinces
Smelting industry centralization: with top 10 smelting capacities accounting for 84%
China tin resources is mostly located in Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi and Guangdong Province
Tin production is centered in 5 provinces: Yunnan, Guangxi, Hunan, Inner Mongolia and Jiangxi
99% Production
centered in 5 provinces
Top 10 smelting capacities accounts for 84%
I、Current Situation of China Tin Industry
1
2
3 The production process and techniques of tin profiles and
chemicals leads the world.
High degree of mechanization, less environmental
pollution, high comprehensive recovery, high level of
automation.
Industry technology is leading the world 3
I、Current Situation of China Tin Industry
The tin smelting technology of Ausmelt furnace, Galvanothermy
Mechanical Crystallizing and vacuum furnace refining are the most
advanced in the world.
Tin trade continues net import with growth of imported raw material 4
China has the largest tin
resources and production in
the world; however, it is a net
importer of both tin raw
material and refined tin.
Since 2007, China has turned
to be a net importer for tin,
especially after 10% export
duty imposed in 2008. The
import amount peaked at 30kt
at one time.
Severe supply shortage, 40%-
50% of material relies on
import.
Refined tin output: 150-170kt
p.a., tin concentrates: 80-100kt
tin p.a.
I、Current Situation of China Tin Industry
China tin concentrates production and import
tin concentrates production tin concentrates import
China refine tin import and export
import export
Tin market is oversupplied with low volatility of price
I、Current Situation of China Tin Industry
5
China tin market keeps to be
slightly oversupplied in short
term, under the background of
enough raw material and less tin
export.
In 2017, Chinese tin price
fluctuates in a small range.
Surplus in short term and stock
rising supress price rising.
2017 SHFE Base Metals Price Index
CU AL ZN PB NI SN
II、Challenges facing China Tin Industry
1. Shortage of raw material challenges tin production
2. Technical and management innovation are keys to
transform and upgrade tin industry under stricter
environment policy
3. Policy changes impel China tin industry to “Go Global”
02
Shortage of raw material challenges tin production
II、Challenges facing China Tin Industry
1
Since 2010,under environmental protection
pressure and technology constraints , the
decline of tin concentrates & secondary tin
production have been made up by imported
raw material.
In 2017, tin price keeps at a high level.
Chinese refined tin production increased to
170000 tons with 3% growth compared to
2016.
In future,tin ore priduction will be difficult
to increase, tin ore import is full of
uncertainty, and secondary tin relies on
technical breakthrough. The shortage of raw
material is challenging tin production.
China tin production structure
Domestic Tin Conc. Imported Tin Conc. Secondary Tin
Mine Smelting Down- stream Processing
Both EP and operating pressure increase
Profit declines Risks increase
Facing transformation of Chinese
manufacturing industry
- Mine safety, EP, automation &
compliance need to be improved
Facing risks of rising cost and
volatile price, will actively seek
change and progress in
management, technology and
management.
The consumption of tin profiles and chemicals
is moving towards environmental protection
and high-tech industry.
It is critical to explore new technologies and
new products, and to rapidly occupy the field
of high technique and efficiency.
Technical and management innovation are keys to transform and upgrade tin industry
under stricter environment policy
II、Challenges facing China Tin Industry
2
Spot trade will be in circulation between domestic and foreign markets. Create closer interaction and exert profound impact on future China tin trade pattern. Urge Chinese companies to further participate in international competition and all-round cooperation from fund, technique, professionals to resources. Healthier industry development and broader international influence.
Issued export quota
of tin and tin product
Imposed 10%
export duty on
tin product Cancelled export tariff and
quotas on refined tin;
Permits Yunnan Tin to do
feeding processing trade
。
Policy changes impel China tin industry to “Go Global”
II、Challenges facing China Tin Industry
3
2002 2008
2017
III、Outlook of China Tin Industry
1. Supply-side reform improves quality and efficiency
2. Industrial policy drives the decrease of tin consumption
3. National strategy expands new market in tin industry
4. Conclusion
03
Environmental supervision Restrict credit and production
Improve supply quality
《Specification of tin industry》
Improve supply efficiency
Supply-side reform
eliminate backward production and
backward technologies
Raise industry standard
Stop repetitive construction
Restrain the expansion of new capacity
Enterprise Integration
Improving the scale and profitability of
the industry
Production process, safety and EP
measures meet theStandards
Capacity matches market demand
III、Outlook of China Tin Industry
Supply-side reform improves quality and efficiency of tin supply 1
Chinese manufacturing transformation and upgrading
Expand more application fields in the process of
development of green economy, new industries and
emerging products
Urbanization brings tin consumption growth
Real estate investment, infrastructure construction,
electronic and communication manufacturing
industry development
Innovation and development
of information industry
Intelligent terminal, semiconductor industry
transfer, AI and IOT
"Made in China 2025"
Promote the development of advanced manufacturing
and high-end equipment
III、Outlook of China Tin Industry
Industrial policy drives the decrease of tin consumption 2
The rapid development of China's industrial Internet in the next decade is expected to generate about $2 trillion of GDP
growth, with a forecast of 20,000 tonnes of refined tin demand, with an average of 1500-2000 tons/year of tin consumption.
III、Outlook of China Tin Industry
One Belt One Road China's comparative advantage industries will be exported to 64 countries along the One Belt And One Road: resources development technology, infrastructure construction, "Internet +" economy, electronic communication etc.
Coordinated Development for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region
Promote tin consumption transformation in electronic information and chemical industry. Electronics: big data, solar pv, communication and navigation equipment, semiconductor lighting, tablet display, application electronics; Chemical industry: new materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing, biopharmaceutical.
Yangtze River Economic Zones
Upgrade tin consumption: increase investment in infrastructure, improve the level of urbanization and electronicinformation communication, build transportation network, accelerate the development of new energy.
In 2016,China's direct investment in countries along the One Belt And One Road has reached us $14.5 billion, accounting for 8.5% of China's investments abroad, jumping 46.02% from 2011, which is expected to reach $150 billion in next 5 years.
National strategy expands new market space in tin industry 3
Capacity matches market
Upgrade on technique, management,
competitiveness and profitability
Production process and green standards meet targets
More centralized Industry 消费仍将维持小幅增长
国内供需将逐步紧平衡
Maintain a modest growth on consumption
AND
Enter into the positive development cycle
III、Outlook of China Tin Industry
Conclusion 4
AN Shortage of raw material
Short supply in the mid-and-long term
Optimistic on the demand
Domestic supply and demand tend to be balanced
III、Outlook of China Tin Industry
Conclusion 4
China Tin consumption forecast (unit:tonnes)
China tin consumption will maintain a
modest growth, and keep stable in the field
of traditional consumption and relatively
optimistic on new industry, new energy,
new materials and chemical industry.
Look ahead, while the development environment
of China tin industry is complex and changeable,
the investment structure, technology transition,
competition and cooperation still face a great
challenge; however, compared with the past,
China tin industry is developing into a positive
cycle.
We are confident to d e v e l o p a better and
sustainable China tin industry with our efforts.
Outlook
Status Challenges
2017
Yunnan Tin Group (Holding) Company Limited
THANK YOU!
Song Xingcheng
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