Chapter 17 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention · 2014-09-26 · Chapter 17...

Chapter 17Chapter 17Fixed Exchange Rates andFixed Exchange Rates and

Foreign Exchange InterventionForeign Exchange Intervention

Prepared by Iordanis Petsas

To AccompanyInternational Economics: Theory and PolicyInternational Economics: Theory and Policy, Sixth Edition

by Paul R. Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld

Chapter Organization

Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates?

Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply

How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rates

Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate

Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight

Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention

Reserve Currencies in the World Monetary System

The Gold Standard

Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply

How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rates

Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate

Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight

Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention

Reserve Currencies in the World Monetary System

The Gold Standard

Summary

Appendix I: Equilibrium in the Foreign ExchangeMarket with Imperfect Asset Substitutability

Appendix III: The Timing of Balance of PaymentsCrises

Chapter Organization

Summary

Appendix III: The Timing of Balance of PaymentsCrises

Introduction

In reality, the assumption of complete exchange rateflexibility is rarely accurate.• Industrialized countries operate under a hybrid system

of managed floating exchange rates.– A system in which governments attempt to moderate

exchange rate movements without keeping exchangerates rigidly fixed.

• A number of developing countries have retained someform of government exchange rate fixing.

How do central banks intervene in the foreignexchange market?

In reality, the assumption of complete exchange rateflexibility is rarely accurate.• Industrialized countries operate under a hybrid system

of managed floating exchange rates.– A system in which governments attempt to moderate

exchange rate movements without keeping exchangerates rigidly fixed.

• A number of developing countries have retained someform of government exchange rate fixing.

How do central banks intervene in the foreignexchange market?

Four reasons to study fixed exchange rates:• Managed floating

• Regional currency arrangements

• Developing countries and countries in transition

• Lessons of the past for the future

Four reasons to study fixed exchange rates:• Managed floating

• Regional currency arrangements

• Developing countries and countries in transition

• Lessons of the past for the future

Table 17-1: Exchange Rate Arrangements (As of March 31, 2001)

Table 17-1: Continued

The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the MoneySupply• Central bank balance sheet

– It records the assets held by the central bank and itsliabilities.

– It is organized according to the principles of double-entry bookkeeping.

– Any acquisition of an asset by the central bank results in a +change on the assets side of the balance sheet.

– Any increase in the bank’s liabilities results in a + change onthe balance sheet’s liabilities side.

Central Bank Interventionand the Money Supply

The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the MoneySupply• Central bank balance sheet

– It records the assets held by the central bank and itsliabilities.

– It is organized according to the principles of double-entry bookkeeping.

– Any acquisition of an asset by the central bank results in a +change on the assets side of the balance sheet.

– Any increase in the bank’s liabilities results in a + change onthe balance sheet’s liabilities side.

• The assets side of a balance sheet lists two types ofassets:

– Foreign assets– Mainly foreign currency bonds owned by the central bank (its

official international reserves)

– Domestic assets– Central bank holdings of claims to future payments by its own

citizens and domestic institutions

• The liabilities side of a balance sheet lists as liabilities:– Deposits of private banks

– Currency in circulation

• Total assets = total liabilities + net worth

• The assets side of a balance sheet lists two types ofassets:

– Foreign assets– Mainly foreign currency bonds owned by the central bank (its

official international reserves)

– Domestic assets– Central bank holdings of claims to future payments by its own

citizens and domestic institutions

• The liabilities side of a balance sheet lists as liabilities:– Deposits of private banks

– Currency in circulation

• Total assets = total liabilities + net worth

• Net worth is constant.– The changes in central bank assets cause equal changes

in central bank liabilities.

• Any central bank purchase of assets automaticallyresults in an increase in the domestic money supply.

• Any central bank sale of assets automatically causesthe money supply to decline.

• Net worth is constant.– The changes in central bank assets cause equal changes

in central bank liabilities.

• Any central bank purchase of assets automaticallyresults in an increase in the domestic money supply.

• Any central bank sale of assets automatically causesthe money supply to decline.

Foreign Exchange Intervention and the MoneySupply• The central bank balance sheet shows how foreign

exchange intervention affects the money supplybecause the central bank’s liabilities are the base of thedomestic money supply process.

• The central bank can negate the money supply effectof intervention though sterilization.

Foreign Exchange Intervention and the MoneySupply• The central bank balance sheet shows how foreign

exchange intervention affects the money supplybecause the central bank’s liabilities are the base of thedomestic money supply process.

• The central bank can negate the money supply effectof intervention though sterilization.

Sterilization• Sterilized foreign exchange intervention

– Central banks sometimes carry out equal foreign anddomestic asset transactions in opposite directions tonullify the impact of their foreign exchange operationson the domestic money supply.

– With no sterilization, there is a link between the balanceof payments and national money supplies that dependson how central banks share the burden of financingpayments gaps.

Sterilization• Sterilized foreign exchange intervention

– Central banks sometimes carry out equal foreign anddomestic asset transactions in opposite directions tonullify the impact of their foreign exchange operationson the domestic money supply.

– With no sterilization, there is a link between the balanceof payments and national money supplies that dependson how central banks share the burden of financingpayments gaps.

Table 17-2: Effects of a $100 Foreign Exchange Intervention: Summary

The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply• If central banks are not sterilizing and the home

country has a balance of payments surplus:– An increase in the home central bank’s foreign assets

implies an increased home money supply.

– A decrease in a foreign central bank’s claims on thehome country implies a decreased foreign moneysupply.

The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply• If central banks are not sterilizing and the home

country has a balance of payments surplus:– An increase in the home central bank’s foreign assets

implies an increased home money supply.

– A decrease in a foreign central bank’s claims on thehome country implies a decreased foreign moneysupply.

How the Central BankFixes the Exchange Rate

Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium Under aFixed Exchange Rate• The foreign exchange market is in equilibrium when:

R = R* + (Ee – E)/E– When the central bank fixes E at E0, the expected rate

of domestic currency depreciation is zero.

– The interest parity condition implies that E0 is today’sequilibrium exchange rate only if: R = R*.

Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium Under aFixed Exchange Rate• The foreign exchange market is in equilibrium when:

R = R* + (Ee – E)/E– When the central bank fixes E at E0, the expected rate

of domestic currency depreciation is zero.

– The interest parity condition implies that E0 is today’sequilibrium exchange rate only if: R = R*.

Money Market Equilibrium Under a Fixed ExchangeRate• To hold the domestic interest rate at R*, the central

bank’s foreign exchange intervention must adjust themoney supply so that:

MS/P = L(R*, Y)– Example: Suppose the central bank has been fixing E at

E0 and that asset markets are in equilibrium. Anincrease in output would raise the money demand andthus lead to a higher interest rate and an appreciation ofthe home currency.

Money Market Equilibrium Under a Fixed ExchangeRate• To hold the domestic interest rate at R*, the central

bank’s foreign exchange intervention must adjust themoney supply so that:

MS/P = L(R*, Y)– Example: Suppose the central bank has been fixing E at

E0 and that asset markets are in equilibrium. Anincrease in output would raise the money demand andthus lead to a higher interest rate and an appreciation ofthe home currency.

– The central bank must intervene in the foreign exchangemarket by buying foreign assets in order to prevent thisappreciation.

– If the central bank does not purchase foreign assetswhen output increases but instead holds the moneystock constant, it cannot keep the exchange rate fixed atE0.

– The central bank must intervene in the foreign exchangemarket by buying foreign assets in order to prevent thisappreciation.

– If the central bank does not purchase foreign assetswhen output increases but instead holds the moneystock constant, it cannot keep the exchange rate fixed atE0.

A Diagrammatic Analysis• To hold the exchange rate fixed at E0 when output

rises, the central bank must purchase foreign assets andthereby raise the money supply.

Domestic-currency returnon foreign-currency deposits,R* + (E0 – E)/E

Figure 17-1: Asset Market Equilibrium with a Fixed Exchange Rate, E0

Exchangerate, E

3'E0 1'

Real money supplyM1

Real money demand, L(R, Y1)

Domestic-currency returnon foreign-currency deposits,R* + (E0 – E)/E

Real domesticmoney holdings

DomesticInterest rate, R0

Stabilization PoliciesWith a Fixed Exchange Rate

Monetary Policy• Under a fixed exchange rate, central bank monetary

policy tools are powerless to affect the economy’smoney supply or its output.

– Figure 17-2 shows the economy’s short-run equilibriumas point 1 when the central bank fixes the exchange rateat the level E0.

Monetary Policy• Under a fixed exchange rate, central bank monetary

policy tools are powerless to affect the economy’smoney supply or its output.

– Figure 17-2 shows the economy’s short-run equilibriumas point 1 when the central bank fixes the exchange rateat the level E0.

Figure 17-2: Monetary Expansion Is Ineffective Under a FixedExchange Rate

Exchangerate, E

Output, Y

Fiscal Policy• How does the central bank intervention hold the

exchange rate fixed after the fiscal expansion?– The rise in output due to expansionary fiscal policy

raises money demand.– To prevent an increase in the home interest rate and an

appreciation of the currency, the central bank must buy foreignassets with money (i.e., increasing the money supply).

• The effects of expansionary fiscal policy when theeconomy’s initial equilibrium is at point 1 areillustrated in Figure 17-3.

Fiscal Policy• How does the central bank intervention hold the

exchange rate fixed after the fiscal expansion?– The rise in output due to expansionary fiscal policy

raises money demand.– To prevent an increase in the home interest rate and an

appreciation of the currency, the central bank must buy foreignassets with money (i.e., increasing the money supply).

• The effects of expansionary fiscal policy when theeconomy’s initial equilibrium is at point 1 areillustrated in Figure 17-3.

Figure 17-3: Fiscal Expansion Under a Fixed Exchange Rate

Exchangerate, E

Output, Y

Changes in the Exchange Rate• Devaluation

– It occurs when the central bank raises the domesticcurrency price of foreign currency, E.

– It causes:– A rise in output

– A rise in official reserves

– An expansion of the money supply

– It is chosen by governments to:– Fight domestic unemployment

– Improve the current account

– Affect the central bank's foreign reserves

Changes in the Exchange Rate• Devaluation

– It occurs when the central bank raises the domesticcurrency price of foreign currency, E.

– It causes:– A rise in output

– A rise in official reserves

– An expansion of the money supply

– It is chosen by governments to:– Fight domestic unemployment

– Improve the current account

– Affect the central bank's foreign reserves

• Revaluation– It occurs when the central bank lowers E.

• In order to devalue or revalue, the central bank has toannounce its willingness to trade domestic againstforeign currency, in unlimited amounts, at the newexchange rate.

• Revaluation– It occurs when the central bank lowers E.

• In order to devalue or revalue, the central bank has toannounce its willingness to trade domestic againstforeign currency, in unlimited amounts, at the newexchange rate.

Figure 17-4: Effects of a Currency Devaluation

Exchangerate, E

Output, Y

Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange RateChanges• Fiscal expansion causes P to rise.

– There is no real appreciation in the short-run

– There is real appreciation in the long-run

• Devaluation is neutral in the long-run.

Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange RateChanges• Fiscal expansion causes P to rise.

– There is no real appreciation in the short-run

– There is real appreciation in the long-run

• Devaluation is neutral in the long-run.

Figure 17-5: A Low-Output Liquidity Trap

ExchangeRate, E

Output, YY1

1 – R*

Figure 17-6: Fixing the Exchange Rate to Restore Full Employment

ExchangeRate, E

1 – R*2

Output, YY1

1 – R*

Balance of PaymentsCrises and Capital Flight

Balance of payments crisis• It is a sharp change in official foreign reserves

sparked by a change in expectations about the futureexchange rate.

Balance of payments crisis• It is a sharp change in official foreign reserves

sparked by a change in expectations about the futureexchange rate.

Figure 17-7: Capital Flight, the Money Supply, and the Interest RateExchangerate, E

R* + (E1– E)/E

Real money supplyM1

1Real domesticmoney holdings

R* + (E0 – E)/E

R* + (E1– E)/E

R* + (E1 – E0)/E0

The expectation of a future devaluation causes:• A balance of payments crisis marked by a sharp fall in

reserves

• A rise in the home interest rate above the worldinterest rate

An expected revaluation causes the opposite effectsof an expected devaluation.

The expectation of a future devaluation causes:• A balance of payments crisis marked by a sharp fall in

reserves

• A rise in the home interest rate above the worldinterest rate

An expected revaluation causes the opposite effectsof an expected devaluation.

Capital flight• The reserve loss accompanying a devaluation scare

– The associated debit in the balance of paymentsaccounts is a private capital outflow.

Self-fulfilling currency crises• It occurs when an economy is vulnerable to

speculation.

• The government may be responsible for such crises bycreating or tolerating domestic economic weaknessesthat invite speculators to attack the currency.

Capital flight• The reserve loss accompanying a devaluation scare

– The associated debit in the balance of paymentsaccounts is a private capital outflow.

Self-fulfilling currency crises• It occurs when an economy is vulnerable to

speculation.

• The government may be responsible for such crises bycreating or tolerating domestic economic weaknessesthat invite speculators to attack the currency.

Managed Floatingand Sterilized Intervention

Under managed floating, monetary policy isinfluenced by exchange rate change.

Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectivenessof Sterilized Intervention• When a central bank carries out a sterilized foreign

exchange intervention, its transactions leave thedomestic money supply unchanged.

Under managed floating, monetary policy isinfluenced by exchange rate change.

Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectivenessof Sterilized Intervention• When a central bank carries out a sterilized foreign

exchange intervention, its transactions leave thedomestic money supply unchanged.

• Perfect asset substitutability– The foreign exchange market is in equilibrium only

when the expected return on domestic and foreigncurrency bonds are the same.

– Central banks cannot control the money supply and theexchange rate through sterilized foreign exchangeintervention.

• Perfect asset substitutability– The foreign exchange market is in equilibrium only

when the expected return on domestic and foreigncurrency bonds are the same.

– Central banks cannot control the money supply and theexchange rate through sterilized foreign exchangeintervention.

• Imperfect asset substitutability– Assets’ expected returns can differ in equilibrium.– Risk is the main factor that may lead to imperfect asset

substitutability in foreign exchange markets.

– Central banks may be able to control both the moneysupply and the exchange rate through sterilized foreignexchange intervention.

• Imperfect asset substitutability– Assets’ expected returns can differ in equilibrium.– Risk is the main factor that may lead to imperfect asset

substitutability in foreign exchange markets.

– Central banks may be able to control both the moneysupply and the exchange rate through sterilized foreignexchange intervention.

Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium UnderImperfect Asset Substitutability• When domestic and foreign currency bonds are perfect

substitutes, the foreign exchange market is inequilibrium only if the interest parity condition holds:

R = R* + (Ee – E)/E (17-1)– This condition does not hold when domestic and foreign

currency bonds are imperfects substitutes.

Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium UnderImperfect Asset Substitutability• When domestic and foreign currency bonds are perfect

substitutes, the foreign exchange market is inequilibrium only if the interest parity condition holds:

R = R* + (Ee – E)/E (17-1)– This condition does not hold when domestic and foreign

currency bonds are imperfects substitutes.

• Equilibrium in the foreign exchange market requiresthat:

R = R* + (Ee – E)/E + (17-2)where: is a risk premium that reflects the difference

between the riskiness of domestic and foreign bonds• The risk premium depends positively on the stock of

domestic government debt: = (B – A) (17-3)

where:B is the stock of domestic government debtA is domestic assets of the central bank

• Equilibrium in the foreign exchange market requiresthat:

R = R* + (Ee – E)/E + (17-2)where: is a risk premium that reflects the difference

between the riskiness of domestic and foreign bonds• The risk premium depends positively on the stock of

domestic government debt: = (B – A) (17-3)

where:B is the stock of domestic government debtA is domestic assets of the central bank

The Effects of Sterilized Intervention with ImperfectAsset Substitutability• A sterilized purchase of foreign assets leaves the

money supply unchanged but raises the risk adjustedreturn that domestic currency deposits must offer inequilibrium.

• Figure 17-8 illustrates the effects of a sterilizedpurchase of foreign assets by the central bank.

– The purchase of foreign assets is matched by a sale ofdomestic assets (from A1 to A2).

The Effects of Sterilized Intervention with ImperfectAsset Substitutability• A sterilized purchase of foreign assets leaves the

money supply unchanged but raises the risk adjustedreturn that domestic currency deposits must offer inequilibrium.

• Figure 17-8 illustrates the effects of a sterilizedpurchase of foreign assets by the central bank.

– The purchase of foreign assets is matched by a sale ofdomestic assets (from A1 to A2).

Figure 17-8: Effect of a Sterilized Central Bank Purchase of ForeignAssets Under Imperfect Asset SubstitutabilityExchange

rate, ERisk-adjusted domestic-currency return on foreigncurrency deposits,R* + (Ee– E)/E + (B –A2)

Sterilized purchaseof foreign assets

P Real money supply

Real domesticmoney holdings

R* + (Ee – E)/E + (B –A1)

Risk-adjusted domestic-currency return on foreigncurrency deposits,R* + (Ee– E)/E + (B –A2)E1

Evidence on the Effects of Sterilized Intervention• Empirical evidence provides little support for the idea

that sterilized intervention has a significant directeffect on exchange rates.

The Signaling Effect of Intervention• Signaling effect of foreign exchange intervention

– An important complicating factor in econometric effortsto study the effects of sterilization

– Sterilized intervention may give an indication of wherethe central bank expects (or desires) the exchange rateto move.

– This signal can change market views of future policies evenwhen domestic and foreign bonds are perfect substitutes.

The Signaling Effect of Intervention• Signaling effect of foreign exchange intervention

– An important complicating factor in econometric effortsto study the effects of sterilization

– Sterilized intervention may give an indication of wherethe central bank expects (or desires) the exchange rateto move.

– This signal can change market views of future policies evenwhen domestic and foreign bonds are perfect substitutes.

Reserve Currencies inthe World Monetary System

Two possible systems for fixing the exchange rates:• Reserve currency standard

– Central banks peg the prices of their currencies in termsof a reserve currency.

– The currency central banks hold in their international reserves.

• Gold standard– Central banks peg the prices of their currencies in terms

of gold.

Two possible systems for fixing the exchange rates:• Reserve currency standard

– Central banks peg the prices of their currencies in termsof a reserve currency.

– The currency central banks hold in their international reserves.

• Gold standard– Central banks peg the prices of their currencies in terms

of gold.

• The two systems have very different implicationsabout:

– How countries share the burden of balance of paymentsfinancing

– The growth and control of national money supplies

• The two systems have very different implicationsabout:

– How countries share the burden of balance of paymentsfinancing

– The growth and control of national money supplies

The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard• The workings of a reserve currency system can be

illustrated by the system based on the U.S. dollar setup at the end of World War II.

– Every central bank fixed the dollar exchange rate of itscurrency through foreign exchange market trades ofdomestic currency for dollar assets.

– Exchange rates between any two currencies were fixed.

The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard• The workings of a reserve currency system can be

illustrated by the system based on the U.S. dollar setup at the end of World War II.

– Every central bank fixed the dollar exchange rate of itscurrency through foreign exchange market trades ofdomestic currency for dollar assets.

– Exchange rates between any two currencies were fixed.

The Asymmetric Position of the Reserve Center• The reserve-issuing country can use its monetary

policy for macroeconomic stabilization even though ithas fixed exchange rates.

• The purchase of domestic assets by the central bank ofthe reverse currency country leads to:

– Excess demand for foreign currencies in the foreignexchange market

– Expansionary monetary policies by all other centralbanks

– Higher world output

The Asymmetric Position of the Reserve Center• The reserve-issuing country can use its monetary

policy for macroeconomic stabilization even though ithas fixed exchange rates.

• The purchase of domestic assets by the central bank ofthe reverse currency country leads to:

– Excess demand for foreign currencies in the foreignexchange market

– Expansionary monetary policies by all other centralbanks

– Higher world output

The Gold Standard

Each country fixes the price of its currency in termsof gold. No single country occupies a privileged position

within the system. The Mechanics of a Gold Standard

• Exchange rates between any two currencies werefixed.

– Example: If the dollar price of gold is pegged at $35 perounce by the Federal Reserve while the pound price ofgold is pegged at £14.58 per ounce by the Bank ofEngland, the dollar/pound exchange rate must beconstant at $2.40 per pound.

Each country fixes the price of its currency in termsof gold. No single country occupies a privileged position

within the system. The Mechanics of a Gold Standard

• Exchange rates between any two currencies werefixed.

– Example: If the dollar price of gold is pegged at $35 perounce by the Federal Reserve while the pound price ofgold is pegged at £14.58 per ounce by the Bank ofEngland, the dollar/pound exchange rate must beconstant at $2.40 per pound.

The Gold Standard

Symmetric Monetary Adjustment Under a GoldStandard• Whenever a country is losing reserves and its money

supply shrinks as a consequence, foreign countries aregaining reserves and their money supplies expand.

Benefits and Drawbacks of the Gold Standard• Benefits:

– It avoids the asymmetry inherent in a reserve currencystandard.

– It places constraints on the growth of countries’ moneysupplies.

Symmetric Monetary Adjustment Under a GoldStandard• Whenever a country is losing reserves and its money

supply shrinks as a consequence, foreign countries aregaining reserves and their money supplies expand.

Benefits and Drawbacks of the Gold Standard• Benefits:

– It avoids the asymmetry inherent in a reserve currencystandard.

– It places constraints on the growth of countries’ moneysupplies.

• Drawbacks:– It places undesirable constraints on the use of monetary

policy to fight unemployment.

– It ensures a stable overall price level only if the relativeprice of gold and other goods and services is stable.

– It makes central banks compete for reserves and bringabout world unemployment.

– It could give gold producing countries (like Russia andSouth Africa) too much power.

The Gold Standard

• Drawbacks:– It places undesirable constraints on the use of monetary

policy to fight unemployment.

– It ensures a stable overall price level only if the relativeprice of gold and other goods and services is stable.

– It makes central banks compete for reserves and bringabout world unemployment.

– It could give gold producing countries (like Russia andSouth Africa) too much power.

The Gold Standard

Bimetallic standard• The currency was based on both silver and gold.

• The U.S. was bimetallic from 1837 until the Civil War.

• In a bimetallic system, a country’s mint will coinspecified amounts of gold or silver into the nationalcurrency unit.

– Example: 371.25 grains of silver or 23.22 grains of goldcould be turned into a silver or a gold dollar. This madegold worth 371.25/23.22 = 16 times as much as silver.

• It might reduce the price-level instability resultingfrom use of one of the metals alone.

Bimetallic standard• The currency was based on both silver and gold.

• The U.S. was bimetallic from 1837 until the Civil War.

• In a bimetallic system, a country’s mint will coinspecified amounts of gold or silver into the nationalcurrency unit.

– Example: 371.25 grains of silver or 23.22 grains of goldcould be turned into a silver or a gold dollar. This madegold worth 371.25/23.22 = 16 times as much as silver.

• It might reduce the price-level instability resultingfrom use of one of the metals alone.

The Gold Standard

The Gold Exchange Standard• Central banks’ reserves consist of gold and currencies

whose prices in terms of gold are fixed.– Each central bank fixes its exchange rate to a currency

with a fixed gold price.

• It can operate like a gold standard in restrainingexcessive monetary growth throughout the world, butit allows more flexibility in the growth of internationalreserves.

The Gold Exchange Standard• Central banks’ reserves consist of gold and currencies

whose prices in terms of gold are fixed.– Each central bank fixes its exchange rate to a currency

with a fixed gold price.

• It can operate like a gold standard in restrainingexcessive monetary growth throughout the world, butit allows more flexibility in the growth of internationalreserves.

Summary

There is a direct link between central bankintervention in the foreign exchange market and thedomestic money supply.• When a country’s central bank purchases (sells)

foreign assets, the country's money supplyautomatically increases (decreases).

The central bank balance sheet shows how foreignexchange intervention affects the money supply.

The central bank can negate the money supply effectof intervention through sterilization.

There is a direct link between central bankintervention in the foreign exchange market and thedomestic money supply.• When a country’s central bank purchases (sells)

foreign assets, the country's money supplyautomatically increases (decreases).

The central bank balance sheet shows how foreignexchange intervention affects the money supply.

The central bank can negate the money supply effectof intervention through sterilization.

Summary

A central bank can fix the exchange rate of itscurrency against foreign currency if it tradesunlimited amounts of domestic money against foreignassets at that rate. A commitment to fix the exchange rate forces the

central bank to sacrifice its ability to use monetarypolicy for stabilization. Fiscal policy has a more powerful effect on output

under fixed exchange rates than under floating rates. Balance of payments crises occur when market

participants expect the central bank to change theexchange rate from its current level.

A central bank can fix the exchange rate of itscurrency against foreign currency if it tradesunlimited amounts of domestic money against foreignassets at that rate. A commitment to fix the exchange rate forces the

central bank to sacrifice its ability to use monetarypolicy for stabilization. Fiscal policy has a more powerful effect on output

under fixed exchange rates than under floating rates. Balance of payments crises occur when market

participants expect the central bank to change theexchange rate from its current level.

Self-fulfilling currency crises can occur when aneconomy is vulnerable to speculation. A system of managed floating allows the central bank

to retain some ability to control the domestic moneysupply. A world system of fixed exchange rates in which

countries peg the prices of their currencies in terms ofa reserve currency involves a striking asymmetry. A gold standard avoids the asymmetry inherent in a

reserve currency standard.• A related arrangement was the bimetallic standard

based on both silver and gold.

Summary

Self-fulfilling currency crises can occur when aneconomy is vulnerable to speculation. A system of managed floating allows the central bank

to retain some ability to control the domestic moneysupply. A world system of fixed exchange rates in which

countries peg the prices of their currencies in terms ofa reserve currency involves a striking asymmetry. A gold standard avoids the asymmetry inherent in a

reserve currency standard.• A related arrangement was the bimetallic standard

based on both silver and gold.

Figure 17AI-1: The Domestic Bond Supply and the Foreign ExchangeRisk Premium Under Imperfect Asset Substitutability

Demand fordomestic bonds, Bd

Risk premium on domesticBonds, ( = R - R* - (Ee– E)/E)

Supply ofdomestic bonds

Quantity of domestic bonds

B – A1 B – A2

(A2 < A1)

Appendix III: The Timing ofBalance of Payments Crises

Figure 17AIII-1: The Timing of a Balance of Payments Crisis

Shadow floatingexchange rate, ES

tEST ´

EST = E0

Exchange rate, E

EST ´´

Foreign reserves, F*

Time0 T´´

EST ´´

TDrop inreservescaused byspeculativeattack

(increasing )Remaining reservestock, F*t

Chapter 17 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention · 2014-09-26 · Chapter 17...

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