Chesapeake Bay Program Watershed Model 101

Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling

Chesapeake Bay ProgramWatershed Model

Role of Models

Modeling

Research Monitoring

Management

ClarityWhat is the Concentration?What are the filtering rates?Where are the streams?

What is the environmentaleffect of any particularmanagement scheme?

How do we balance manydifferent interests?

CBP Modeling Structure

Watershed Model

Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package

Regional Acid Deposition Model

Topics

• Description of the Watershed Model

• Calibration

• Data

• Use in Management

• CalibrationCalibration

• DataData

• Use in ManagementUse in Management

Purposes of the Watershed Model

1. Accurately deliver loads to the WaterQuality Model

2. Equitably account for all load sources

3. Assess changes due to management

Requirements for WSM

• Daily flow, nutrient, and sediment load• Accurately simulate any major land use• Responsive to

Nutrient input to land Structural BMPs Changes in stream chemistry Meteorology

HSPF• Hourly time step• Heavily parameterized

sensitive to many inputs very flexible

• Open Source, Free• Supported by USGS and EPA• Wide usage

Lumped parameterPhysically-based models

HSPF - lumped model

Land Simulation --1 Acre

Ground Water

SurfaceInterflow Lower Zone

Water simulation - physically based

Ground Water

Surface

Interflow

Lower Zone

Precipitation or percolation

Percolation

Evapotranspiration

(time series)

f(soil properties, slope, temp)

f(time series, land properties)

f(soil properties, slope, temp)

Water simulation - physically based

Nutrient and Sediment Simulation

Meteorology Precipitation

Runoff andGroundwater

LandMorphology

NitrogenCycle

SedimentExport

PhosphorusCycle

Nutrient Inputs

Nutrient and Sediment Simulation

NitrogenCycle

Roots Leaves

ParticulateRefractoryOrganic N

ParticulateLabile

Organic N

SolutionAmmonia

Nitrate

SolutionLabile

Organic N

AdsorbedAmmonia

SolutionRefractoryOrganic N

Nitrogen Cycle in Watershed Model ForestA

Export

Export Export ExportExport Export Export

Model Nutrient BalanceAtmosphericDeposition

DenitrificationVolatilization

Export to Streams

Land Uses Modeled

Forest

Model Nutrient BalanceAtmosphericDeposition,

other sources

Export to Streams

Uptake bygrasses

Land Uses Modeled

Pervious Urban, Impervious Urban

Model Nutrient BalanceAtmosphericdeposition,

Manure,

Fertilizer

Export to Streams

Uptake byCrops

Land Uses Modeled

High Till, Low Till, Hay, Pasture

Land-Water Connection

X 3000 acres

X 400 acres

X 900 acres

X 100 acresX 200 acres X 300 acres

River Simulation

River 3

N River Simulation

Sediment

River Simulation

River 1

River 2 River 3

Watershed Model

• 64,000 square miles• Nine land uses• 94 segments

Topics

• Calibration

• Data

• Description of the Watershed ModelDescription of the Watershed Model

• Calibration

• DataData

2 points of calibration

Land Surface

RainRiver Reach

Calibration• Exports from land

Literature values Analysis of input

• River input to tidal waters Data at all major inputs Upstream points

Figure 12. Crop Nitrogen

Beaulac & Reckhow Sparrow Sweeney & Chang CBP Model

Figure 13. Crop Phosphorus

Beaulac & Reckhow Sweeney & Chang model

Figure 23. Hay Nitrogen

Beaulac & Reckhow model

Figure 24. Hay Phosphorus

Beaulac & Reckhow model

Figure 28. Pasture TN Export vs TN applications

y = 0.0791x + 3.5782R2 = 0.9221

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

applications lb/ac/year

l nitr

2 points of calibration

Land Surface

RainRiver Reach

Calibration Reviews• Modeling Subcommittee• Tributary Strategy Work Group• Model Evaluation Group

____________________________________________________________________________CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERSHED MODEL

APPLICATION AND CALCULATION OF NUTRIENTAND SEDIMENT LOADINGS

Appendix E: Land Use and Linkages to the Airshed and Estuarine Models____________________________________________________________________________

A Report of theChesapeake Bay ProgramNutrient Subcommittee

Annapolis, MDAugust 1998

Printed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the Chesapeake Bay Program

Topics

• Calibration

• Data

Types of Input Data

• Point sources• Land use• Nutrient loads to land• Management Actions

Point Sources

• Facility by facility list• Monthly data where available• Years 1984 - 1999• Estimates for future scenarios

Point Source Info• Point Source

Workgroup representation from

all states + DC• Documented on the

modeling subcommittee web site

Appendix F: Point Source Loadings____________________________________________________________________________

Land Use

}EMAPGIRAS

ForestImpervious Urban

Pervious UrbanFarms

AgriculturalCensus,CTIC

} CropHay

PastureMixed Open

Sources

Outputs

}Population

Estimations,Projections

Land UseData Base

Land Use

• Tributary Strategy Workgroup representation from

Appendix E: Land Use and Linkages to the Airshed and Estuarine Models____________________________________________________________________________

Nutrient Loads to Land

• Atmospheric Deposition• Fertilizer• Manure

Atmospheric Deposition

• Use national data source (NADP)

• Use Airshed model to determine wet deposition vs dry deposition

• Use Airshed model to estimate change due to management actions

AtmosphericDeposition

Nitrogen Atmospheric Deposition11.042 - 13.13910.288 - 11.0429.966 - 10.2889.662 - 9.9669.351 - 9.6629.17 - 9.351

Appendix D: - Precipitation & Meteorological Data Development & Atmospheric Deposition____________________________________________________________________________

Manure

• Use Agriculture Census to get animal numbers by type

• Use assumptions about manure production and applications

• Get monthly applications by crop type

• Overseen by Tributary Strategy Work Group

Manure Data ModelPasture

Uncollected

Collected

Spring/FallApplication

Daily Application

Enclosure

Barnyard

Volatilization

Daily Application

Storage

VolatilizationVolatilization

Volatilization

Runoff Runoff

DairySwineLayersBroilersTurkeys

Fertilizer

• Data From State Agriculture Agencies

• Modified for nutrient management

• Overseen by Modeling Subcommittee and Tributary Strategy Workgroup

Find Nutrient Management

Mineral

CropNeed

Fertilizer

Manure

30% CropNeed

Find Nutrient Management

Mineral

CropNeed

Fertilizer

Manure

30% CropNeed

Excess Manure

Mineral

CropNeedAtDep

Fertilizer

Manure30% Crop

Manure

Mineral

AtDepCropNeed

30% CropNeed

Excess Manure

Manure

Mineral

AtDepCropNeed

30% CropNeed

Manureto move

Excess Manure

Manure and Fertilizer• Trib Strategy

Workgroup representation from

Appendix C: Agricultural Nutrient Loads____________________________________________________________________________

Topics

• Calibration

• Data

• DataData

Scenario Method

• Run 1985 - 1994 hydrology with land use, land management, and point sources held constant

• What are the expected annual loads if the state of management is Trib Strat?

Total Nitrogen Delivered to Tidal Potomac

1985 2000 Trib Strat LOCT 2010 Pristine

DCPAWVMDVA

CBP Modeling Structure

Watershed Model

Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Package

Hydrodynamic Model

Regional Acid Deposition Model

Average Water Claritywith watershed management

at 1985 levels

Average Water Claritywith watershed management

at Limit of CurrentTechnology

Phase 5

Collaborators• CBP

EPA CRC UMCES NRCS all state agencies

• USGS MD and VA

• U of MD.

• MDE• ICPRB• DCR

Major Partners

MDE/DCR TSWG Mod SCICPRB

USGS CBP Mod &Nut Teams

Stakeholder and Technical Input

TMDLneeds

PotomacStake-holdercoordination

CB stake-holder andtechnicalinformation

Technicalguidance

The right size forsegmentation

HSPF - lumped modelWhat is a reasonable size for lumping?

• Too big meaningful differences are

missed

• Too small can’t get the data can’t run the model

Phase 5 land segmentation

• Most counties are completely within a hydrogeomorphic region

• BMP and Crop data are not known on a finer scale in most cases

• Near the limit of computing capacity

What is a reasonable size for lumping?

• Too big meaningful differences are

missed• Too small

can’t get the data can’t run the model

River Simulation

Phase 5 RiverSegmentation

• Greater than 100 cfsor

• Has a flow gage

• Near the limit of meaningful data

• Consistent criterion

Putting the land andriver together

X 3000 acres

X 400 acres

X 900 acres

X 3000 acres

X 400 acres

X 900 acres

E T M Land Use

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

Start of simulation End of simulation

E T M Land Use

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

Start o f simulation End of simulation

E T MLand Use

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

Start o f simulation End o f simulation

METData

ATDEPData

Land NPSExport

Final Output

NutrientApplication

Database

PSData

External Transfer Module

ManagementPractices

Time Series

Land UseTime Series

Time Series from Land Simulation

Time Series to River

Simulation

P5.D1 - Time varying calculation

ManagementPractices

Land UseTime Series 1985 reference

1990 calibration2000 progress

1985 reference1992 start of BMP implementation2000 progress

E T M BMPs

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

E T M Land Use

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

Other ETM Opportunities

• Seasonality• Urban flow considerations• Performance under extreme weather • Design life consideration• Ability to add any new BMP• Subgrid effects

Other p5 changes

Easier Operation

• Ability to split out small watersheds for simulation

• Ability to run partial scenarios• User-Friendly GUI for model output

Groundwater

• No groundwater lag in phase4.x

• Some ideas on the table for phase5, but . . .

Simulation Time

• P4 – 1984-1997 (used 1985-1994)

• P5 – 1984 – 2000 (calibration)• 2001 – 2001 (verification)

Rainfall

• Better information on a 5 km grid

• Use regression of weather pattern, latitude, longitude, and altitude.

Atmospheric Deposition

• Update of data and regression methods for observed data

• Update of model predicting change due to management actions

Better and extended data sets

• Point Source

• Water Diversions

• Septic

Better and extended data sets

• Fertilizer

• Manure

• Land Use =>

RESAC 2000 Land Cover• Delivered for Patuxent• Available by county-

segment• integrated with

impervious mapClass_namebare soil/rock/clay/sand/gravelcropsdecid trees and shrubsevergreen trees and shrubsgrassherb/sedge wetlandindustr/commerc/transp/highresmixed composition trees and grassresidentialwaterwooded wetland

RESAC 2000 Impervious Map

• Data on 30 m pixels• Able to combine with

LU Map

More land use types• Phase4

Forest Urban Hitil Lotil Hay Pasture Manure

• Phase5 Low intensity developed Moderate intensity developed High intensity develop corn wheat hay soy vegetables nursery tobacco cotton Pasture Grass fallow Deciduous forest Evergreen forest Mixed forest Deciduous wetlands Evergreen wetlands Emergent wetlands Bare rock/ mines/quarries Other barren (sand and soil) Water Major roads/interstates

New River Data

• Needed geomorphology of ~800 rivers Had data for ~200 Developed regression curves for each

region for• Bankfull depth• Bankfull width• Bottom depth

New Reservoir Data

• Phase4 Six simulated reservoirs

• Phase5 Forty simulated reservoirs

More Observations

• Phase4 16 stations for flow and water quality

• Phase5 70 water quality stations 280 flow stations

Calibration

• Better input data• More realistic simulation• More observations• Better calibration software• More calibrators• 5 more years of understanding

Chesapeake Bay Program Watershed Model 101

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