Climate Change and Sustainable Development - The Case of India€¦ · IIM Ahmedabad Climate Change...

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Climate Change and Sustainable DevelopmentThe Case of India

P.R. ShuklaIndian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad

Presentation for theInternational Expert Meeting on Climate Change and Sustainable Development

November 19-20, 2002, Seoul, Korea

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Presentation Agenda

• Climate Change and India: Status

• Future Emissions Trends

• South Asia Regional CooperationEnergy and Electricity MarketsImpacts and Vulnerability

• Linking Climate Policies with Development Goals

• COP 8 - The Delhi Ministerial Declaration

• Kyoto and Beyond

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Climate Change and India:Emissions Status

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Index (1975=100)

E lectricity

E n ergy

C arb on

G D P

GDP, Energy, Electricity, Carbon

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GDP Intensity of Energy,Electricity and Carbon

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Intenstity Index (1975=1)

E lectricity

C arb on

E n ergy

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GHG Emissions

Emissions 1990 2000 CAGR

Carbon 162 (58%) 253 (65%) 4.56

Methane 17.1 (36%) 19.5 (29%) 1.32

N2O 0.21 (6%) 0.28 (6%) 2.92

CO2 equivalent 1017 1424 3.42

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Decoupling Carbon and Energy: Policy Measures

• Energy Efficiency and Conservation

• Renewable Energy

• Vehicle Efficiency and Transport Fuel Improvements

• Electricity Reforms

• Forestry and Land Restoration

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Carbon Mitigation(1900-200)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Car

bon

(MT

)

Energy Con (Supply)

Energy Con (Demand-side)

Gas Flaring

Biogas

Stove

Renewable Power

111 Million ton Carbon Mitigation from 1990 - 2000

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Carbon Saved in the Year 2000

Technology Initiative C arbon Sav ed(Million Ton)

Energy C onservation(Supply -side)

2.60

Steel 0.86

C ement 0.34

Other industry 0.78

Agriculture 0.15

Transport 0.10

Energy C onservation(Demand-side)

Residential + C ommercial 0.27

Wind 0.94

Sm all Hydro 0.15Renew able Pow er

Biomass 0.19Improved Stove 4.96Gas Flaring 4.16Biogas 2.30

Total 17.80

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Cooperative Climate Change Initiatives

• GEF Projects (2.6 Million ton/yearpotential)

• AIJ and Bilateral Projects

• National Communication

• Accession to Kyoto Protocol

• COP 8

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Climate - Development Linkage:Forestry Initiatives

1) Land Restoration

2) Afforestation• Joint Forestry Management• Social Forestry• Forest Conservation

3) Agro Forestry• Energy Plantation

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Future Emissions Trends

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Primary EnergyReference Scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100

Exa

Joul

es

Coal Oil GasNuclear Biomass Hydro Other Renewable

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0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

Mil

lion

Ton

nes

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100

Elec. Agriculture Household & Commercial Industry Transport

Carbon EmissionsReference Scenario

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Energy, Carbon, Electricity and GDP

(History and Projections for the Reference Scenario)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

E nergy C arbon E lectricity G D P

P ast Trends

Future P rojections

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0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity

CarbonEnergy

Past Trends Future Projections

GDP intensitiesEnergy, Electricity and Carbon

(History and Projections for the Reference Scenario)

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Carbon Intensity: 1995 = 1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100

Carbon/ Person

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100

Carbon/GDP

Carbon/ TWh

Carbon/ Energy

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SO2 Emissions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Mil

lion

Ton

nes

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Carbon per Capita in India in the 21st Centuryunder Different Scenarios

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100

Car

bon

per c

apita

(met

ric to

n)

India Base Case

World (A1 Marker)

World (B2 Marker)

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Impact of Stabilization Constraints

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Carbon Emission Trajectories

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100

Mil

lion

Ton

nes

550 ppmv

650 ppmv

Base

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0

700

1400

2100

2800

3500

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100

TW

h

BASE

550 ppmv

650 ppmv

Coal Electricity

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100

TW

h

550 ppmv

Base

650 ppmv

Gas Electricity

Stabilization: Impact on Electricity Sector

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Stabilization: Impact on Electricity Sector

0

100

200

300

400

500

2070 2085 2100

TW

hBASE

550 ppmv

650 ppmv

Nuclear Fusion

0

150

300

450

600

750

1995 2010 2025 2040 2055 2070 2085 2100

TW

h

BASE

550 ppmv

650 ppmv

Renewable Technologies

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India: Filling the Stabilization Gap

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Carbon CaptureEnergy EfficiencyWindSolarBiomassHydroNuclearGasOilIndia 550 ppmv emission

550 550 PPMV PPMV

Non-Fossil Energy Contribution to GHG Mitigation

400

800

1200

2000

1600

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CDM Strategy:Roadmap to continued

meaningful participation

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Carbon Mitigation via CDM(under different Post-Kyoto Scenarios)

Scenarios

GlobalCarbon Price

CarbonMitigation

(Million Ton)

CumulativeMitigation

%

750 ppmv $5-8/ton 138 3%

650 ppmv $5-10/ton 301 7%

550 ppmv $5-14/ton 449 10%

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Climate Friendly Technology OptionsPotential and Costs for Kyoto Period

G r e e n h o u seG a s

M it ig a t io n O p tio n s M it ig a t io nP o te n tia l

2 0 0 2 -2 0 1 2(M ill io n

T o n )

L o n g -te r mM a r g in a l

C o s t($ / T o n o f

c a r b o ne q u iv a le n t)

D e m a n d -s id e E n e r g y E ff ic ie n c y 4 5 $ 0 -1 5

S u p p ly -s id e E n e r g y E ff ic ie n c y 3 2 $ 0 -1 2

E le c tr ic ity T & D 1 2 $ 5 -3 0

R e n e w a b le E le c tr ic ity T e c h n o lo g ie s 2 3 $ 3 -1 5

F u e l s w itc h in g - g a s fo r c o a l 8 $ 5 -2 0

C a r b o n

F o r e s tr y 1 8 $ 5 -1 0

E n h a n c e d C a tt le F e e d 0 .6 6 $ 5 -3 0

A n a e r o b ic M a n u r e D ig e s te r s 0 .3 8 $ 3 -1 0

L o w M e th a n e R ic e V a r ie t ie s M a r g in a l $ 5 -2 0

M e th a n e(C H 4)

C u lt iv a r p r a c tic e s M a r g in a l $ 0 -2 0

I m p r o v e d F e r ti liz e r A p p lic a tio n M a r g in a l $ 0 -2 0N itr o u s O x id e(N 2O )

N itr if ic a t io n I n h ib ito r s M a r g in a l $ 2 0 -4 0

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India's CDM Strategy:Roadmap to continued meaningful participation

Project/ ProgramStrategy

Retrofit Projects (e.g.)• Boiler retrofit• Process improvements

• Promote technology transition in small/medium industry

• Link with resource conservation programs

Green-field Projects (e.g.)• New Wind Farm• Gas Power Plant

• Positive list• Promote technical/ financial collaborations• Jump start technology transition/ hedging

Infrastructure Projects (e.g.)• Gas Pipeline• Electricity T&D• Road/Rail infrastructure

• Link with development• Regional energy cooperation• High mitigation potential but difficult to

operate under CDM regime

Mitigation Programs (e.g.)• Demand-side Efficiency• Electricity Distribution Reforms• Consumer Awareness

• Strong link with economic reforms andsustainable development

• High transaction costs but high co-benefits• No way to operate under Kyoto regime

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South Asia Regional CooperationEnergy, Electricity and Water Markets

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The South Asia Region

Consists of Seven CountriesIndia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, SriLanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives.

3% of the World Area

Quarter of World Population

Among the fastest growing developingcountry regions

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North-East Asia Gas Market Design

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Regional Energy Market Development

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Regional Energy Co-operation:A Key Link for Development and Climate

Emissions Reduction (2015)

CarbonSOX

0.0

1.53.04.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

Red

uct

ion

(%

)Year

Marginal Cost Reduction

Red

uct

ion

(%)

2005 2015

0

1.5

3

4.5

6

YearGrid Integration

Grid Integration + Regional Energy Co-operation

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South Asia Regional CooperationImpacts and Vulnerability Issues

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Linked ClimateTropical MonsoonDistribution of Rainfall delineatesclimate across regions

Diverse Climatic RegionsLong Coast LineMountainsDeserts/ Arid areas

ResourcesDiverse Energy ResourcesShared Rivers

Common Regional Climate

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Soft Impacts

Long Coast-line and Islands

Enhanced Malaria and Dengue Fever-threat inTropical Regions of Sri Lanka and spread tomountain regions

Phytoplankton blooms -South AsianCoastlines

Melting of Glaciers

Floods and Droughts?

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Hard ImpactsInfrastructure Projects: Konkan Railway

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Linking Climate Policieswith Development Goals

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Development, Local Concerns and Climate:Policy Linkages and Disjoints

Clean Air Policies and Climate• Local Air Pollution control leads to Clean Coal (in power) and Ultra-

Refined oil products (in transport) and not low carbon technologies

Balanced Regional Development and Climate• Policies like locating projects in less developed regions lead to clean air,

but have little impact on carbon

Regional Energy Market Development• Strong link with for energy security, clean air and carbon emissions

Regional Water - Energy Linkage• Strong link with energy security (hydro power), food security (irrigation),

health and welfare (flood controls)

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Development, Local Concerns and Climate:Policy Linkages and Disjoints

Infrastructure and Climate• Coastal infrastructure (Roads, Ports),• Railway in western mountains (Konkan Railway)

Industry and Climate• Tourism (sea and Himalayan resorts)• Refineries on coasts

Implications of Climate Regime for Coal Regions• Stabilization regime shall affect coal demand and price

Impacts on Islands and their ecosystems• Lakshdweep, Andamans Islands• Biodiversity-Climate linkage(Mannar Island)

Impact on Monsoon

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Institutional and CapacityBuilding Measures

1) Public-Private Partnership

2) Stakeholder Consultations

3) Regional/ International Cooperation

4) National Communications

5) Technology Transfer Protocols

6) GEF/ AIJ Projects

7) Bilateral Mitigation Projects

8) Research Projects

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Institutional and CapacityBuilding Issues and Needs

1) Where should the Climate Change focal point be within theGovernment of India?

2) Capacity to meet Convention Obligations (e.g. NationalCommunicaitons)

3) Regional Integrated Assessment• Regional Climate Assessment• Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment (Ecosystems/ Water/

Agriculture/ Coastal development)• Mitigation Assessment

3) Regional/ International Cooperation4) Public-Private Partnership5) Grassroots Action6) ……………...

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COP8 - Delhi Ministerial Declaration on Climate Change and Sustainable Development

• Parties to Promote Sustainable Development• Link Climate Change strategies with

Energy, Water, Health, Food security, Poverty alleviation

• Common but Differentiated Responsibilities• High Priority to Adaptation• Technology Transfer

Energy, Transport, Industry, Health, Agriculture, Biodiversity,Forestry, Water Management

• Access to Clean Energy Services• Diversified Energy Supply (Clean/ Renewable)

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Kyoto and Beyond

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Kyoto and BeyondMitigation Regime

Policies and MeasuresCommitment (Targets, Time Tables, Timing, Allocation)Extended CDM regimeNon-Binding TargetsWhat is “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?Resource Sharing versus Burden Sharing

• Impacts and AdaptationPrevention / InsuranceFuture socioeconomic scenarios

• Technology and Financial Transfers

• Institutions

• Capacity building

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Conclusions• Despite no commitments, India mitigated 111 MT carbon in

last decade and shifted 2002 baseline by 7%

• Development of regional energy, electricity and water marketswould reduce electricity costs, lower emissions and promotesustainable development

• Early signal about post-Kyoto mitigation regime are critical forstrategic shift in future emissions baseline

• Concentrations stabilization regime shall significantly impactsub-continent’s energy system

• Beyond national sustainable development policies, theemissions mitigation and adaptation policies will have to becrafted for own sake