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Climate Change and Sustainable Urban Growth
University of
Tehran
GERA: An Optimized Model for National
Sustainable Development
By: Majid Shafie-Pour
Climate Change
The most challenging threats during past decades
… 398.58 ppm
1
GHGs emission pathways consistent
with 2 ºC warming
Keohane, N. and P. Goldmark (2008), Environmental Defense Fund 2
Climate Change efforts, but …
… not enough achievements! 3
Equity Principles &
Burden Sharing Rules
Interpretation Equity
principle
Equal rights of people to use atmospheric resources Egalitarian
Rate of emissions constituting the current status quo Sovereignty
Similar economic circumstances have similar emission rights and burden sharing responsibilities
Horizontal
The greater the ability to pay, the greater the economic burden
Vertical
The abatement burden corresponds to the level of emissions
Polluter pays
4
Emission Cuts or Emission
Allocations? The equity principles would be applied in two
different ways:
1-Fair emission reductions
2- Fair emission allocations
5
Equity for whom?
The unit of analysis for Equity:
Equity for Individuals or Equity for Nations
6
An optimized model for sustainable
development planning based on “Horizontal
Equity” concept and “GHGs Emissions
Reduction-Allocation” from national
perspectives.
What is GERA?
7
GERA Model
GERA (Built-in equity principles)
Fair
GHGs
Emission
Reduction
(National)
Fair
GHGs
Emission
Allocation
(National)
8
Case Study: IRAN
Positioned in west of Asia- Middle East,
The world's 17th economy*,
The world's 25th GDP,
76 million population,
31 Provinces …
* International Monetary Fund 9
National Emission Reduction Goals
2010 2020
GH
Gs
Em
issi
ons
Year
10 Years
20%
10
Fair Emission Reduction Indicators
Equity
indicators (emission cuts)
3
4
5
6
2
1
7
Per capita of emissions
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP
GDP per capita
Population
Accumulated CO2 emissions (2001-2011)
CO2 per unit of industrial added value 11
CI- 1 CI- 2
CI- 3
Fair Emission Reduction
Comprehensive Index
12
Construction of “Comprehensive Index (CI-1)”
Ri: Percentage emission reduction target for province i
A: GHGs emission per capita
B: GDP
C: Emissions per unit of GDP
D: GDP per capita
Z: Correction factor
w: Weighting coefficient as w = 100.
13
Weighting Coefficients
Values
Case 1,
Equally
weighting
Case 2,
Preferring
CO2 per
capita
Case 3,
Preferring
CO2 per
GDP
Case 4,
Preferring
GDP per
capita
Case 5,
AHP
approach
WA
(CO2 per capita) 25 55 15 10 45.45
WB
(GDP) 25 15 15 10 15.15
WC
(CO2 per GDP) 25 15 55 10 9.09
WD
(GDP per capita) 25 15 15 70 30.30
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) 14
Fair Emission Reduction Shares
15
%
“Comprehensive Index (CI-2)”
Ei: Percentage share of population for province i
Fi: Percentage share of CO2 emission for province i
Gi: Percentage share of GDP for province i
w: Weighting coefficient as w = 1.
16
Weighting Coefficients
Values
Case 1,
Equally
weighting
Case 2 Case 3 Case 4
Case 5,
AHP
approach
WE (population) 0.33 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.14
WF (emission) 0.33 0.6 0.8 0.35 0.57
WG (GDP) 0.33 0.35 0.15 0.6 0.29
17
Fair Emission Reduction Shares
18
%
“Comprehensive Index (CI-3)”
Ri: Percentage emission reduction target for province i
A: GHGs emission per capita
D: GDP per capita
H: GHGs cumulative emission
J: GHGs emission per unit of added value
Z: Correction factor
w: Weighting coefficient as w = 100.
19
Weighting Coefficients
Values
Case 1,
Equally
weighting
Case 2,
Preferring
CO2 per
capita
Case 3,
Preferring
CO2 per
GDP
Case 4,
Preferring
GDP per
capita
Case 5,
AHP
approach
WA
(CO2 per capita) 25 30 20 20 41.67
WD
(GDP per capita) 25 30 20 20 27.78
WH
(CO2 cumulative) 25 20 20 40 16.67
WJ (CO2/AV) 25 20 40 20 13.88
20
Fair Emission Reduction Shares
21
%
Effects on National GDP Reductions
(%)
AddedValue
CO2
7-9% Reduction in GDP for
20% Reduction in GHGs
CI-1 CI-2 CI-3
22
Allocation of National Emission
Permits
23
Fair Emission Allocation Indicators
Equity Indicators
(emission
allocation)
1
2
3
4
5
Population share
Per capita of GDP
Per capita of accumulated emissions
Preserving future development opportunities
Per capita of carbon efficiency of production
24
Quantifying Principles & Proposals
: share of Population in each province
: share of GDP in each province
Pi : population of each province
P
i
GDP
i
25
Quantifying Principles & Proposals
: share of Carbon Productivity
: share of Historical Emissions in per capita
: Added Value
CP
iHE
i
AV
26
Quantifying Principles & Proposals
: the per capita share of Current Emissions
: the share of Future Development
Opportunity of each province
CE
i
FDO
i
27
“Comprehensive Index”
CP
i
FDO
i
HE
i
GDP
i
P
i
EQ
i xxxxx .. 54321
Values Equally
weighting
Preferring
capacity
(GDP)
Preferring
Responsibility
(HE)
Preferring
development
potential (FDO)
Preferring
emission
productivity (CP)
X1 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
X2 0.2 0.4 0.15 0.15 0.15
X3 0.2 0.15 0.4 0.15 0.15
X4 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.4 0.15
X5 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.4
Xi 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 28
National Emission Allocation Share
%
29
Future Research Program …
An Optimized Distribution Model for GHGs
Emissions in Different Regions of Iran
Using Game Theory*, from Sustainable
Development Perspective.
30
* 1921: Emile Borel
1994: John Nash
Objectives for Development Plan in
Iran …
• Resources Distribution
• Population Distribution
• Emission Allocation Permits
• Unemployment Rate
• Needs & Potentials
• …
31
Development Plan of Iran …
Non-cooperative
Cooperative
32
Development Plan of Iran …
33
Development Plan of Iran …
34
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