CoastalZone.com The Use of Ecological Risk Assessments in a Watershed Level Context Thorne E. Abbott...

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The Use ofThe Use of Ecological Risk Assessments Ecological Risk Assessments

in ain a

Watershed Level ContextWatershed Level Context

Thorne E. Abbott

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Man & NatureMan & Nature

Population Growth & Urbanization

Environmental Engineering

POTW’s

Natures Assimilative Capacity Surpassed

Speed up natural cleansing processes

Wastewater Treatment

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Pollution ControlPollution Control

Clean Water Act 1972

$67 billion in Infrastructure

NPDES permits

Fishable, Swimable, Drinkable Waters

Secondary treatment for cities

Control effluent quality & quantity and model stream impacts

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25 Year Reality Check25 Year Reality Check

Clean Water Action Plan of 1997

“Non-Attainment” of one or more goals in 35% of waterways

50% of waterways greatly improved

Why … after investing $67 billion...???

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Why were goals not attained…?Why were goals not attained…?Factors not considered in modeling

and decision-making: hydrologic boundaries agricultural runoff urban runoff & ecological effects variance in model parameters sources of uncertainty deterministic models

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Indian River LagoonIndian River Lagoon

Sources of Nitrogen Loading 9% Road drainage 7% Lawns 13% Cattle 31% Agricultural 31% Human Wastewater Effluent

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Watershed ApproachWatershed Approach

Defines hydrologic boundaries

Includes point and non-point source pollution

Place-based & local Includes stakeholders Prioritizes and targets

specific problems

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Ecological Risk AssessmentEcological Risk Assessment

Problem Formation Analysis

– Ecological Receptors– Exposure Profiles

Risk Characterization

Management options

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Exposure & Effects ProfilesExposure & Effects Profiles

Uses existing local data and information sources

Characterizes probable exposure pathways

Characterizes individuals and species affected

Defines variance in model parameters

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Multiple StressorsMultiple Stressors

Combine multiple profiles Define probable exposure

and ecological effects Define levels of risk to

populations and communities

Identify sources of uncertainty

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Total Ecosystem RiskTotal Ecosystem Risk Synthesize multiple

stressors & sensitive ecological receptors

Define probable contribution of each stressor to ecological dysfunction

Manage stressors in light of overall ecosystem health

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Watershed Level Risk AssessmentWatershed Level Risk Assessment

Watershed Approach Ecological Risk Assessment

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WLRA incorporates ...WLRA incorporates ... hydrologic boundaries agricultural runoff urban runoff & ecological effects sources of uncertainty variance in model parameters probabilistic .vs. deterministic

model

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But ….But ….

Time … ???Time … ???

ExpenseExpense … ???… ???

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Multi-Tiered ProcessMulti-Tiered Process

Benefit from the explicit use of uncertainty

Tailored to the site Place-based &

resource-based Minimize time, effort,

and data acquisition costs

Problem Formation

RiskCharacterization

ExposureAssessment

Ecological EffectsCharacterization

EcologicalReceptor

Characterization

SourceCharacterization

RiskManagement

Significant Uncertainty Regarding Risks?

No Further Risk Assessment

NextTier

Multi-Tiered RiskAssessment Process

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ExampleExample

Stressor Zinc Chloride Habitat

Disturbance Channelization

Source Industrial Point Source Non-Point source Low Flows in summer

months Shipping &

Transportation

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Tier 1 - Tier 1 - ZincZincQuotient MethodologyQuotient Methodology

Known point source Conservative Well characterized

exposure & effect Established

certainty from sampling

Simple, deterministic methodology

Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y

Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance

HabitatDisturbance

Tier 1 2 3 3

1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization

1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown

1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a

1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00

Unknown n/a n/a

1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown

1 Certainty 100%[assumed]

Unknown Unknown Unknown

Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y

Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance

HabitatDisturbance

Tier 1 2 3 3

1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization

1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown

1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a

1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00

Unknown n/a n/a

1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown

1 Certainty 100%[assumed]

Unknown Unknown Unknown

Zinc...

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Tier 2 - Tier 2 - ChlorideChloridePlace-based MethodologyPlace-based Methodology

Non-point source Place-based Characterize local exposure

and effects Use existing data sets to

determine probable stressor pathways

Reduces uncertainties in analysis

Focus future monitoring efforts

Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y

Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance

HabitatDisturbance

Tier 1 2 3 3

1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization

1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown

1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a

1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00

Unknown n/a n/a

1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown

1 Certainty 100%[assumed]

Unknown Unknown Unknown

2 Eco.Risk Criteria Method determined ERC / COC = Q Unknown Unknown

2 EPA BASINS Data determined 0.003 / 15.0 <1.00

Unknown Unknown

2 Species Affected determined 25% Unknown Unknown

2 Certainty determined 95% Unknown Unknown

Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y

Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance

HabitatDisturbance

Tier 1 2 3 3

1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization

1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown

1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a

1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00

Unknown n/a n/a

1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown

1 Certainty 100%[assumed]

Unknown Unknown Unknown

2 Eco.Risk Criteria Method determined ERC / COC = Q Unknown Unknown

2 EPA BASINS Data determined 0.003 / 15.0 <1.00

Unknown Unknown

2 Species Affected determined 25% Unknown Unknown

2 Certainty determined 95% Unknown Unknown

Chloride...

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Tier 3 - Tier 3 - Low flows & ChannelizationLow flows & Channelization Site-specific MethodologySite-specific Methodology

Targeted monitoring Determine what

ecosystem functions are altered by stressors

Define specific species and communities at risk

Local dynamics and interactions understood more clearly

Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y

Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance

HabitatDisturbance

Tier 1 2 3 3

1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization

1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown

1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a

1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00

Unknown n/a n/a

1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown

1 Certainty 100%[assumed]

Unknown Unknown Unknown

2 Eco.Risk Criteria Method determined ERC / COC = Q Unknown Unknown

2 EPA BASINS Data determined 0.003 / 15.0 <1.00

Unknown Unknown

2 Species Affected determined 25% Unknown Unknown

2 Certainty determined 95% Unknown Unknown

3 Site Testing determined determined Dams & Weirs Dredging

3 New Data determined determined Deleteriouseffects

Deleteriouseffects

3 Species Affected determined determined 40% 20%

3 Certainty determined determined 85% 90%

Table 1: TIERED MET HODOLOG Y

Zinc Chloride HabitatDisturbance

HabitatDisturbance

Tier 1 2 3 3

1 Source Industry Natural Low Flows Channelization

1 Impact Not adverse Yes Unknown Unknown

1 QuotientMethod EEC / COC = Q Unknown n/a n/a

1 Data 0.002 / 10.0 <1.00

Unknown n/a n/a

1 Species Affected 5% Unknown Unknown Unknown

1 Certainty 100%[assumed]

Unknown Unknown Unknown

2 Eco.Risk Criteria Method determined ERC / COC = Q Unknown Unknown

2 EPA BASINS Data determined 0.003 / 15.0 <1.00

Unknown Unknown

2 Species Affected determined 25% Unknown Unknown

2 Certainty determined 95% Unknown Unknown

3 Site Testing determined determined Dams & Weirs Dredging

3 New Data determined determined Deleteriouseffects

Deleteriouseffects

3 Species Affected determined determined 40% 20%

3 Certainty determined determined 85% 90%

Flows & Channel

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Tier 3 Tier 3 Site-specific MethodologySite-specific Methodology

Sample locally sensitive ecological receptors Target local stessor pathways for monitoring Implement area-specific management plans Consider alternative scenarios to minimize

stressor / receptor response – increase flows c/o dam releases– alter dredging times c/o receptor sensitivity

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WLRA: Total Ecosystem AssessmentWLRA: Total Ecosystem Assessment Provides an overall

picture of ecosystem health

Relates stressor & receptor relationships to ecological dysfunction

Offers realistic options to improve ecosystem health

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WLRA: SummaryWLRA: Summary Provides potential alternatives to improve

total ecological health Offers flexibility in planning, prioritizing

and monitoring Creates place-based, resource-oriented,

stakeholder driven solutions Ensures more realistic perspectives and

outcomes for ecosystem improvement

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AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments

The Coastal Society University of Maryland,

– Marine Environmental Estuarine Science Program– Dr. Bob Gardner (Appalachian Environmental Labs)– Dr. Haasch (Chesapeake Bay Labs)– Dr. Karen Prestegaard (College Park)

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Thank You !Thank You !

Thorne Abbott

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www.coastalzone.com