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Colorado Front Range air quality 2014 AQAST update
David Edwards and Gabriele Pfister National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO
AQAST 2013 Tiger Team Project
In collaboration with Patrick Reddy, Gordon Pierce and Jane Mitchell (CDPHE, Denver, CO)
Yang Liu and Matthew Strickland (Emory University, GA)
Air Quality and Health Impacts from the Summer 2012 Colorado Wildfires
Colorado experienced one of its most costly and devastating fire seasons in 2012
Goal 1: Establish impacts of wildfires on Human health Epidemiological analysis based on hospital admissions and other health data Bring together air quality managers, health authorities and academic and
agency scientists
Goal 2: Quantify fire impact on AQ Provide material in support of exceedance demonstration
Analysis of Satellite and Surface Observations &
AQ Modeling of Fire Impact and Exposure:
Satellite Retrievals: MODIS, IASI, MOPITT, OMI
Surface Obs: EPA, CASTNET, NOAA Modeling: WRF-Chem
Document fire contribution on AQ and support
exceedance demonstration
Health Data provided by
CDPHE
Epidemiological Study on Fire
Impact
Evaluate effectiveness of current wildfire
advisories
Fire Impact/Exposure Analysis
o Front Range - Complex topography and flow patterns o Diverse sources (urban, agriculture, oil/gas, fires….) o Long-range transport o Fires: Highly variable source; localized impacts o Limited set of observations for evaluation Challenges:
WRF-Chem Modeling Numerous sets of simulations (12 km & 4 km) have been conducted
testing different meteorology, emissions, physics schemes, etc. Meteorology
o Observation nudging and assimilation provide similar statistics, but neither fully capture the complex flow patterns
o Data assimilation provides a more balanced simulation and indicates slightly better agreement with observations, albeit computationally much more expensive for experimental runs
Anthropogenic emissions: o Colorado specific only for 2008 and 2018: CDPHE 2008, AQMEII 2010,
projected NEI 2011, NEI 2011, CDPHE 2018
Fire emissions: o NCAR/FINN too low and area burned underestimated by factor 2 compared to
independent data; improved with burned area calculations from SMARTFIRE o Both estimates very different from NASA/QFED
v
v
v
v
Anthropogenic Emissions
+22% +27%
Colorado/CDPHE EI projected to 2018 / US EPA NEI 2011 / AQ Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII 2010)
NO
C3H8
-200% +70% San Juan Basin
Denver Basin
Piceance Basin
Paradox Basin
Uintah Basin
Exceedance Demonstration
Objective: Provide input to exceedance demonstration (package submitted to EPA within 3 years of events)
Identified Ozone Events (compiled by CDPHE): 6/17/2012 Rocky Mountain NP 7/4/2012 Rocky Mountain NP 8/21/2012 Rocky Mountain NP 8/31/2012 Rocky Mountain NP
6/17 7/4
Surface Ozone @ Rocky Mountain NP Observations WRF-Chem with QFED WRF-Chem no fires
6/17
7/4
Surface Monitors
CDPHE Identified Ozone Event 17 June 2012 – High Park Fire
Event 17 June 2012 – High Park Fire
WRF-Chem with QFED Fires
WRF-Chem without Fires
Daily Average PM2.5 Daily 8-hour Max Ozone
Event 17 June 2012
Event 4 July 2012 – Transport
Denver Post, 5 July 2012
CO Tropospheric Column
IASI
MOPITT
Aerosol Optical Depth
MODIS
WRF-Chem
Event 4 July 2012 – Transport
Event 4 July 2012 – Transport Daily Average PM2.5 Daily 8-hour Max Ozone
WRF-Chem with QFED Fires
WRF-Chem without Fires
Health Study Yang Liu, Matt Strickland and Breanna Alman (Emory University)
Explore the relationship of PM2.5 with ED visits and acute hospitalizations for asthma and determine whether wildfire smoke was a contributing factor.
Increased PM2.5 from fires resulted in an increase in asthma ED visits and acute hospitalizations
One of the first studies to look at concentration-response effects of PM2.5 over a long-lasting fire period, and one of the first to cover such a large geographic area
Conditional Logistic Regression inputs at 12 km x 12 km for 1 June – 10 July, 2012
• CDPHE/Colorado Hospital Association Hospitalization and Emergency Dept. Data
• CDPHE Hourly PM2.5 observations & WRF-Chem exposure modeling
• North American Land Data Assimilation System Temperature Data
Concentration-Response Association for PM2.5 and asthma visits (all ages)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Colorado Department for Health and Environment (CDPHE), NASA Airborne Science Program, Colorado State University (CSU), University of Colorado Boulder,
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 8, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Park Service (NPS), Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC), UC Berkeley, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, US Naval Academy, U of Wisconsin, U of Rhode Island, U of Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, GO3 Project, Aerodyne
Inc., and many others!
High summertime ozone - non-attainment Complex topography and meteorology
active photochemistry Diverse set of emission sources (urban,
oil/gas, industrial, agriculture, biogenic, fires) Impact on downwind regions (central plains) Inflow from UT, WY, CA, and Asia
https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/frappe
Objective: Characterize the factors driving summertime pollution
Picture Courtesy: James Crawford, NASA
• NASA P-3: Continuous mapping of aerosols (HSRL) and trace gas columns (ACAM)
• NASA B-200: In situ profiling of aerosols and trace gases over surface sites
• Ground: In situ trace gases and aerosols, Remote sensing of trace gas and aerosol columns, Ozonesondes, Aerosol lidar
• NASA Falcon: GEO-TASO
NSF/NCAR C-130: In situ profiling of aerosols and trace gases Ground: In-situ chemistry and aerosols, tethered balloon, wind profilers, mobile vans, canisters, etc. Chemical Modeling: Forecasting and Analysis
Tracer Forecast Oil and Gas Source Tracer
• Quantify sources and constrain inventories – Transportation, Oil and Gas Extraction (-> AQAST Tiger Team), Power
Generation, Agricultural activities, Vegetation • Quantify the interaction and the overall impact of these emissions on
local and regional AQ – Air mass composition (organics, oxidants, NOx) – Climate impact – Ozone and oxidant formation – Formation and evolution of particulates – Mountain induced recirculation – accumulation of pollutants
• Quantify import of larger scale emissions and impact on local AQ – UT and WY oil and gas extraction and power generation, California, Asian
emissions, potential wildfires
➪ Relate Surface AQ to satellite measurements ➪ Improve Meteorological and AQ Models ➪ Provide scientific basis for informed decision making ➪ Strong Education and Outreach Component
SCIAMACHY NO2 Columns: May-Sep. 2010 Dots: Oil and Gas Wells
Si-Wan Kim, Gabrielle Petron, Gregory Frost, NOAA
CDPHE Oil and Gas Regulation • Recent State rules expanded to include regulation of methane leaks • CDPHE has an aggressive inspection and enforcement program, including:
– annual inspections of major (>100 tpy) sources – 4 full time FLIR (infrared) camera inspectors – inspection of exploration and production operations
• CDPHE’s Oil and Gas team works collaboratively with other state, local and federal officials as well as scientific, community groups, etc.
• The O&G team welcomes appropriate calls and reports of major leaks, etc. that may be observed during the FRAPPE campaign
• All O&G operations required to post CDPHE identification numbers, permits, etc. on location at the site
22 Courtesy: Gordon Pierce (CDPHE)
• Over 51,000 active wells in Colorado – Over 22,000 of these in the North Front Range
• Over 8000 condensate tanks • Compressor stations, etc.
Concurrent with NASA DISCOVER-AQ 4th Deployment
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NASA Airborne Science Program Colorado Department for Health and Environment (CDPHE), Colorado State University (CSU), University of Colorado Boulder, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 8, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Park Service (NPS), Regional Air Quality Council (RAQC), UC Berkeley, UC Irvine, UC Riverside, US Naval Academy, U of Wisconsin, U of Rhode Island, U of Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, GO3 Project, Aerodyne Inc., and others
• Characterize emissions from Oil & Gas (O&G) Operations on regional (aircraft) and local (mobile vans, surface stations) scales
• Distinguish methane from O&G from other sources (e.g. agriculture) using tracer correlations and methane isotopes
• Study transport of O&G emissions and mixing with pollution from other sources
• Relate FRAPPÉ results to previous U.S. wide studies • Evaluate Satellite Methane Retrieval Products • Link to ongoing projects:
• North Front Range Oil and Gas Air Pollutant Emissions and Dispersion Study (CSU)
• CU NSF AirWaterGas.org
IASI and MOPITT Images Past and in Near-Real time www.acd.ucar.edu/acresp/mopitt-iasi/plots.shtml
Event 4 July 2012 – Transport
GOES Fire Detection
IASI CO Column
Daily Total NOx Emissions
June-July NOx Emissions
Fire Emissions FINN with Smartfire burned area NASA/QFED
FINN QFED
NOx emissions (moles/km2/day)
Event 4 July 2012 – Transport
Rocky Mountain National Park
Rocky Flats
"July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite NO2 in Colorado and other Western States”
(paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE)
40
50
60
70
80
5880 5890 5900 5910 5920 5930 5940 5950
1995
19961997
19981999 20002001
2002
2003
2004
2005
20062007
2008
20092010
2011
2012
Rocky Flats North
Denver July Mean 500 mb Height in MetersJuly
Mea
n Da
ily M
ax 8
-hr O
3 in
ppb
R-Squared = 0.86
High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights Observed Surface Ozone and 500mb Height Re-Analysis
Analysis by Patrick Reddy
"July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite NO2 in Colorado and other Western States”
(paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE)
Analysis: Gabriele Pfister
High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights Statistical Analysis of 13 year-long regional climate simulations
Present Time Scenario
"July Maximum Surface Ozone, Meteorological Variables, and Satellite NO2 in Colorado and other Western States”
(paper in preparation, lead author Patrick Reddy, CDPHE)
Analysis: Gabriele Pfister
High Correlations Between July Means for Daily Max O3 and 500 mb Heights Statistical Analysis of 13 year-long regional climate simulations
2050 Scenario
Current and Next Steps
Proposal to BLM (declined) and NIH (to be submitted) for continuation of health study (multiple summers)
Finalize set of model simulations and continue through August
Compose documentation for exceedance demonstration by 2015
Results from FRAPPÉ are expected to provide important information on improving model simulations (emission constraints, data for evaluating and refining model configuration, etc.)
Workshop Presentations
• Air Quality and Oil & Gas Development in the Rocky Mountain Region Workshop, October 2013, Boulder CO: “FRAPPÉ: The Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Éxperiment” (G. Pfister)
• 2013 Western Air Quality Modeling Workshop, July 2013, Boulder, CO: “Modeling Ozone Exceptional Events: California, 2008 & Colorado/Wyoming, 2012” (G. Pfister)
• WESTAR Wildfire and Ozone Exceptional Events Meeting, Sacramento, CA, March 2013, “Modeling Ozone Exceptional Events: California, 2008 & Colorado/Wyoming, 2012” (G. Pfister)
Presentations and Outreach for FRAPPÉ (Media, AQ Organizations (APCD, RAQC, ...), Industry (COGA, CO Energy Coalition,...), Non-profit groups (Rotary Club, Lung Association,...), etc. https://www2.acd.ucar.edu/frappe https://www.eol.ucar.edu/field_projects/frappe http://ucarconnect.ucar.edu/features/air-quality-research
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