Conflict Dynamics & Peacebuilding Opportunities in Northern Nigeria Lake Chad

Conflict Dynamics & Peacebuilding Opportunities in Northern NigeriaAmira Noeuv, David Gross, Shannon Mills, & Lauren Reese

●Overview of Conflict Analysis

●Peacebuilding Approach

●Recommendations

The conflict between Boko Haram and the government erupted in 2009 in NE Nigeria

Source: Deutsche Welle, 2014

Boko Haram seeks to drive out the government

BBC

Terrorist attacks and fighting have disrupted daily life for people in the Lake Chad Basin

AP Photo/Jerome Delay

The broader political, economic, and social context in Nigeria contributes to the conflict

Source: Deutsche Welle, 2014

The conflict is occurring in the context of major environmental changes in the Lake Chad Basin

Source: Info Congo, 2015

Lake Chad has been shrinking, which increases competition for scarce water resources

Source: GRID-Arendal

Widespread grievances in NE Nigeria enabled Boko Haram to mobilize an insurgency

Poverty Governance Religion/Ethnicity

Diminishing land & water resources

Growing migration

Wealth concentrated in southern Nigeria

Corruption

Poor institutional performance

Political exclusion

Competition for leadership of Nigerian Muslims

Implementation of Sharia law in North

Kanuri ethnic identity

Key actors have the potential to mobilize people to violence or peacebuilding

Boko Haram Leader Abubakar Shekau

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari

Religious & traditional leaders

Nigerian civil societyThe Lake Chad Basin Commission

Nigeria has weakened Boko Haram militarily, but the underlying grievances persist

Population growthLong term trends

Triggers for

conflict escalation

Climate change

Demand for water and land

Poverty

Major terror attack

Excessive force

Economic recession

Boko Haram→ economic loses of >$15B in NE Nigeria

Disruption of core livelihoods by conflict

Changing environmental conditions → decreased crop yield & increased livestock mortality

Untapped farming and livestock potential for poverty reduction if water availability and management issues addressed

Economic Resilience

Peacebuilding StrategyPrograms

Youth Employment

Sustainable Livelihoods

Water and Land Use Agreements

Lake Chad Replenishment

Short-term Medium-term Long-Term

Business Skills Workshops

Micro-credit Programs

Sustainable Agriculture Training,Small-Scale Irrigation Projects, Well Construction

Market Access Strategies

Infrastructure Development

Cooperative Negotiation

Negotiated Agreement, Enforcement

Large-Scale Infrastructure for River Diversions

Community Research, Environmental Studies

Peacebuilding StrategyPrograms

Youth Employment

Sustainable Livelihoods

Water and Land Use Agreements

Lake Chad Replenishment

Short-term Medium-term Long-Term

Business Skills Workshops

Micro-credit Programs

Sustainable Agriculture Training,Small-Scale Irrigation Projects, Well Construction

Market Access Strategies

Infrastructure Development

Cooperative Negotiation

Negotiated Agreement, Enforcement

Large-Scale Infrastructure for River Diversions

Community Research, Environmental Studies

Youth Employment Initiatives

● Vocational training

● Apprenticeships

● Basic management and accountancy courses

● Small business associations

● Microfinance loans

Peacebuilding StrategyPrograms

Youth Employment

Sustainable Livelihoods

Water and Land Use Agreements

Lake Chad Replenishment

Short-term Medium-term Long-Term

Business Skills Workshops

Micro-credit Programs

Sustainable Agriculture Training,Small-Scale Irrigation Projects, Well Construction

Market Access Strategies

Infrastructure Development

Cooperative Negotiation

Negotiated Agreement, Enforcement

Large-Scale Infrastructure for River Diversions

Community Research, Environmental Studies

Training in sustainable agricultural practices1

● no-tillage systems

● shifting of sowing times

● use of organic manure

2Development of irrigation systems

Increased access to water points for pastoralists3

● Construction of boreholes

● Training in how to identify and operate wells

● Community consultation

Increased access to markets4

Peacebuilding StrategyPrograms

Youth Employment

Sustainable Livelihoods

Water and Land Use Agreements

Lake Chad Replenishment

Short-term Medium-term Long-Term

Business Skills Workshops

Micro-credit Programs

Sustainable Agriculture Training,Small-Scale Irrigation Projects, Well Construction

Market Access Strategies

Infrastructure Development

Cooperative Negotiation

Negotiated Agreement, Enforcement

Large-Scale Infrastructure for River Diversions

Community Research, Environmental Studies

Water & Land Use AgreementsIUCN Framework for

negotiating water agreements

Importance of dialogue at local level, institutions & civil society organizations, government

Komadugu Yobe Basin Integrated Wetland Program

Local LevelActivities in local community that helps to build trust along the Basin while also maintaining ecology of LCB

Short-term

Medium & Long Term Results KYB Program

Water Charter Agreement

Catchment Management Plan (CMP)

Comprehensive Water Audit

Barriers● Economic & political instability

● Cultural hierarchy & participation

● Lack of/incomplete data on the use, allocation and management of land and water

● States have not granted LCBC to assume more responsibilities

Recommendations

Government subsidies for irrigation farmers

Civil institutions developing projects to educate locals on advantages of the methods and technologies

Programs focused on implementing the different models of public participation

More authority to LCBC by member states

Peacebuilding StrategyPrograms

Youth Employment

Sustainable Livelihoods

Water and Land Use Agreements

Lake Chad Replenishment

Short-term Medium-term Long-Term

Business Skills Workshops

Micro-credit Programs

Sustainable Agriculture Training,Small-Scale Irrigation Projects, Well Construction

Market Access Strategies

Infrastructure Development

Cooperative Negotiation

Negotiated Agreement, Enforcement

Large-Scale Infrastructure for River Diversions

Community Research, Environmental Studies

The Need for Replenishment of Lake ChadAlmost dry on Nigerian

side of the Lake

Employment for 2 million Nigerians

50,000 tons of fish

Shared with other users

Lake Chad Replenishment Project● First proposed in 1988

● Transfer from Congo Basin to Chad Basin

● Hydroelectric dam on Oubangi River near Bangui

● Gradual restoration of Lake Chad

● Navigable waterway between basins

Cautions from southern Africa

Lesotho Highlands Water Project between South Africa and Lesotho

Large inter-basin transfer but not designed for peacebuilding

Successful by some measures BUT

Was less successful and problematic in some respects

Context of Chad and Congo Basins

Cost

Ensure benefits and access for all users

Environmental impact concerns

Support from all states of Chad Basin

Resistance from Republic of Congo and DRC

Are trade opportunities and hydropower enough?

Peacebuilding StrategyPrograms

Youth Employment

Sustainable Livelihoods

Water and Land Use Agreements

Lake Chad Replenishment

Short-term Medium-term Long-Term

Business Skills Workshops

Micro-credit Programs

Sustainable Agriculture Training,Small-Scale Irrigation Projects, Well Construction

Market Access Strategies

Infrastructure Development

Cooperative Negotiation

Negotiated Agreement, Enforcement

Large-Scale Infrastructure for River Diversions

Community Research, Environmental Studies

Conflict Dynamics & Peacebuilding Opportunities in Northern NigeriaAmira Noeuv, David Gross, Shannon Mills, & Lauren Reese