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2
COURSE OBJECTIVES
This course is designed to:
• Build an understanding of what conjoint models are, what they can do and how they are used
• Know what options are available and how to evaluate the most appropriate conjoint approach
• Share real-life conjoint and simulation examples in Home Improvements and other categories
This is not a course in:
• Survey design
• Mathematical or technical aspects of conjoint
• Forecasting
COURSE OBJECTIVES
This course is designed to:
• Build an understanding of what conjoint models are, what they can do and how they are used
• Know what options are available and how to evaluate the most appropriate conjoint approach
• Share real-life conjoint and simulation examples in Home Improvements and other categories
This is not a course in:
• Survey design
• Mathematical or technical aspects of conjoint
• Forecasting
3
What is conjoint?
• A method of understanding and predicting how people select one product or service over another
• Uses “trade-off” exercises that require people to choose or hypothetical offerings over alternatives
• A way to measure the impact of price and features on offering selection
• The basis for a “simulation” model that can estimate offering adoption and revenue
4
What does conjoint help us do?
• Gauge the importance of price and various product/service features
• Determine sensitivity to price and elasticity with other features
• Predict uptake given specific features and price points
• Identify optimal feature and price configurations
• Model impact of service-level changes
• Anticipate competitor responses
5
Conjoint can be used to test:
• Entirely new product or service concepts prior to launch
• New or additional features of existing products/services
• Pricing strategies
• Branding and positioning strategies New brands and JVs Repositioning of existing brands
• Discontinuance of a product, service, line or brand Where will the business go?
• Service-level improvement initiatives
6
Why do we need a “trade-off”?
• Alternative to reliance on articulated choices
• Purchasers (rationally) want the best of everything at the lowest cost
• All product/features may seem equally important or attractive
• Price is always important - especially if unbounded
• Trade-off exercise forces purchasers to choose what’s most important to them
• Features, price and brand
• Consistent patterns across trade-offs determine “importance” of features and price points
7
Example: Will consumers pay more for a Lead-Safe faucet?
Will they pay:
•5% more?
•10% more?
•15% more?
•Will they buy it all?
8
Which faucet would you choose at each price premium for lead-free brass waterway?
Standard brass at $100.00 Lead-free brass at $100.00 X Standard brass at $100.00 Lead free brass at $105.00 XStandard brass at $100.00 X Lead-free brass at $110.00Standard brass at $100.00 X Lead free brass at $115.00
With only two options and four price points on one option, four simple choices will answer our questions
NOTE: We can adjust the $100 base price and all the offset prices depending on how much the customer plans to spend. For example, if the customer is shopping in the $300 range, the offset prices would be $315 (+5%), $330 (+10%) and $345 (+15%). This is more realistic than:•Having customers make choices in price ranges they aren’t shopping, or•Presenting percentages that require mental-math
Tip: Realism is critical in trade-off exercises!
10
Brass Lead-free Brass, same price as brass Plastic/PEX, same price as brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 5% more than brass Plastic/PEX, same price as brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 10% more than brass Plastic/PEX, same price as brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 15% more than brass Plastic/PEX, same price as brass Brass Lead-free Brass, same price as brass Plastic/PEX, 5% more than brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 5% more than brass Plastic/PEX, 5% more than brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 10% more than brass Plastic/PEX, 5% more than brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 15% more than brass Plastic/PEX, 5% more than brass Brass Lead-free Brass, same price as brass Plastic/PEX, 10% more than brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 5% more than brass Plastic/PEX, 10% more than brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 10% more than brass Plastic/PEX, 10% more than brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 15% more than brass Plastic/PEX, 10% more than brass Brass Lead-free Brass, same price as brass Plastic/PEX, 15% more than brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 5% more than brass Plastic/PEX, 15% more than brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 10% more than brass Plastic/PEX, 15% more than brass Brass Lead-free Brass, 15% more than brass Plastic/PEX, 15% more than brass
Which faucet would you choose at each price premium for lead-free brass or plastic/PEX waterway?
But it gets more complicated by adding just one more waterway material… 16 choices with 3 options each
Conjoint efficiently organizes more trade-offs than could otherwise be tested
• Becomes unmanageable with any more dimensions or options
11
Actual Faucet Example
•Six brands
•Five features with 3-4 options each
• “Supply line material” feature only asked with “Supply lines included” option
•6 tested price-points (including “same as standard”)
•Two numeric “benefits” derived from feature option combinations
Tip: Keep features consistent and logically ordered!
12
Conjoint Exercise: Feature Definitions
Tip: Clearly define all features especially if testing new concepts!
13
13
Conjoint Exercise Screen
Tip: Conjoint exercise should be easy to read !
Tip: Change color schemes to highlight differences across screens
and indicate progress to avoid respondent fatigue!
15
Simulator “Baseline”
• Required to forecast actual share-shifts, unit sales and/or revenue
• Not required simply to identify configuration that maximizes uptake
Total ConsumersShare 18.4%Change in Share 0.0%Share 12.3%Change in Share 0.0%Share 29.1%Change in Share 0.0%Share 13.4%Change in Share 0.0%Share 6.9%Change in Share 0.0%Share 19.9%Change in Share 0.0%
Kohler
American Standard
Other
Delta
Price Pfister
Moen
Tip: Baseline information should closely match what we are trying to forecast: e.g., current year sales (baseline) to forecast next year sales,
not installed base – may be very different from recent sales
FICTITIOUS DATA!
16
Simulator Input: Baseline product configuration
Tip: Baseline configurations should come as close as possible to what each competitor actually offers
17
Simulator Input: “Other Brand” offering
Tip: Program simulator to easily recover baseline after simulated changes
18
Delta Price Pfister Moen KohlerAmerican Standard
Other
Attribute Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level
Material used for internal waterways Brass Brass Brass Brass Brass Plastic/PEX
Supply line inclusion and integration Not included Not included Not included Not included Not included Included, fully integrated
Type of valve Stainless steel ball valve Ceramic disc valve Cartridge valve Ceramic disc valve Ceramic disc valve Diamond seal valve
Warranty Limited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warranty Limited lifetime warranty
Supply line material No supply line included No supply line included No supply line included No supply line included No supply line included Plastic/PEX
Price increase above baseline price 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Simulator Output: “Other Brand” offering, no price change
Tip: It’s a good idea to display the scenario on the same simulator page as the output to keep track of simulations easily
19
Delta Price Pfister Moen KohlerAmerican Standard
Other
Attribute Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level
Material used for internal waterways Brass Brass Brass Brass Brass Plastic/PEX
Supply line inclusion and integration Not included Not included Not included Not included Not included Included, fully integrated
Type of valve Stainless steel ball valve Ceramic disc valve Cartridge valve Ceramic disc valve Ceramic disc valve Diamond seal valve
Warranty Limited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warranty Limited lifetime warranty
Supply line material No supply line included No supply line included No supply line included No supply line included No supply line included Plastic/PEX
Price increase above baseline price 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10%
Simulator Output: “Other Brand” offering with 10% price increase
20
DeltaPrice
PfisterMoen Kohler
American Standard
Other
Brass 0 1 0 1 1 0Lead-free brass 1 0 0 0 0 0Other metal (not brass) 0 0 1 0 0 0Plastic/PEX 0 0 0 0 0 1Supply line inclusion and integrationNot included 0 1 1 1 1 0Included, not integrated 0 0 0 0 0 0Included, fully integrated 1 0 0 0 0 1Type of valveCartridge valve 0 0 0 0 0 0Stainless steel ball valve 1 0 0 0 0 0Ceramic disc valve 0 1 0 1 1 0Diamond seal valve 0 0 1 0 0 1WarrantyNo warranty 0 0 0 0 0 0Standard 5-year warranty 0 0 0 0 0 0Limited lifetime warranty 1 1 1 1 1 1Supply line materialPlastic/PEX 0 0 0 0 0 1Braided stainless 1 0 0 0 0 0Braided synthetic 0 0 0 0 0 0Copper or stainless steel 0 0 0 0 0 0No supply line included 0 1 1 1 1 0Price increaseEnter a value above baseline price (0%-10%) 5 0 0 0 0 10
Ease of installation Easiest Standard Standard Standard Standard EasiestNumber of leak points 7 13 12 13 13 5
Material used for internal waterways
Simulator Input: Competitor response
21
Delta Price Pfister Moen KohlerAmerican Standard
Other
Attribute Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level Selected Level
Material used for internal waterways Lead-free brass Brass Other metal (not brass) Brass Brass Plastic/PEX
Supply line inclusion and integration Included, fully integrated Not included Not included Not included Not included Included, fully integrated
Type of valve Stainless steel ball valve Ceramic disc valve Diamond seal valve Ceramic disc valve Ceramic disc valve Diamond seal valve
Warranty Limited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warrantyLimited lifetime warranty Limited lifetime warranty
Supply line material Braided stainless No supply line included No supply line included No supply line included No supply line included Plastic/PEX
Price increase above baseline price 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5%
Total ConsumersShare 19.8%Change in Share 1.4%Share 11.4%Change in Share -0.9%Share 30.2%Change in Share 1.1%Share 12.3%Change in Share -1.1%Share 6.2%Change in Share -0.7%Share 20.1%Change in Share 0.2%
Kohler
American Standard
Other
Delta
Price Pfister
Moen
10% “Other” Price Premium 5% “Other” Price Premium
Simulator Output: competitor response and “Other Brand” 5% price decrease (from 10%)
22
Simulator Output: competitor response and “Other Brand” at 0-10% price premium
“Other Brand” Percent Price Premium over Standard Brass - Delta fixed at 5% - Moen fixed at 0%
Per
cen
t sh
are
of
sale
s
TIP: Tested price points should bracket range under consideration. Interpolation
more valid than extrapolation.
25
Ranking combines strengths of discrete choice and ratings
“Discrete” 1st choice
2nd-6th choices provide additional data
But strength of preference not always clear and ranking might not seem realistic
26
CONSTANT SUM: 5 10 30 10 35 10
VOLUMETRIC ALLOCATION: 0 10 20 0 20 0Of the 50 faucets you plan to buy, indicate how many of each type you would
purchase. Total must sum to 50
Allocate 100 points across the offerings to indicate your likelihood to purchase each, the more points the higher likelihood. Total must sum to 100.
Constant Sum and Volumetric Allocation both distribute fixed sums (per respondent) across offerings
• Constant sum allocates “points” or probabilities to gather data on all offerings while forcing a trade-off
• Volumetric asks, “how many of each would you purchase?”
• Volumetric is required for any frequent or multiple purchase situations, e.g.: Multiple units or volumes of products (trucks, gallons of paint, parts…) Frequent purchase occasions (visits to stores, delivery services, etc.)
Tip: In the faucet project, we used rankings for consumers who typically buy only one faucet and volumetric for plumbers and channels
27
Type Pros Cons
Ratings Captures data on each rating
Can result in ties, flat ratings, truncated scaling
Discrete choice Simple, intuitive, forces a choice
Thin input data; may overestimate adoption
Rankings Maximizes discrimination while capturing data on each
offering
Can be difficult to rank all choices; interval among
rankings uncertain
Constant sum Captures data on all offerings, can produce
interval results
Can be tedious/time consuming for respondents; less realistic
Volumetric Highly realistic, captures data on all offerings,
essential for multi-purchase situations
Not appropriate for single or infrequent purchases
Summary: Types of Conjoint Exercises
28
Conjoint Alternative: Max Diff
Spanish/English bilingual staff"No questions asked" return policyLow-cost product protection plans
Follows-up on project statusSpecial check-out line for contractors
Truck rental availableOn-line information on order status
Expedited special ordersExpedited shipping available
Carries newest/latest productsCaters to female shoppers
Carries all leading brandsCarries lower priced house-brandsOne-stop-shopping for all projects
Caters to the DIYerCaters to contractors
Helps homeowner plan projects
Home delivery availableShip to store available
Frequent shopper rewards"How do build/fix/do it" classesQR code info for all merchandise
on-line chat consultation
Short wait in lineBroad brand assortment
Carries only premium brands Offers contractor discounts
Store staff expertiseProvides installation services
Lowest Prices
Least Likely Most Likely
Short wait in lineBroad brand assortment
Carries only premium brands
Lowest Prices
Least Likely Most Likely
Offers contractor discountsStore staff expertise
Provides installation services
Carries only premium brands
Least Likely Most Likely Frequent shopper rewards
Provides installation servicesHome delivery availableShip to store available
• Determines relative importance (rank ordering) of attributes via repeated subset trade-offs
• Works best with long lists of binary (yes/no, present/absent) attributes
• Answers questions like “what are top 5 drivers of shopping here?”
• Not appropriate for product configuration or pricing
Of these four features, which is least likely and most likely to get you to shop at a hardware store or home center?
29
Attribute Brand 1 Brand 2 Brand 3 Brand 4 Brand 5 Brand 6
Product Variety Good Good Good Good Better GoodProduct Quality Better Better Good Good Better GoodOrdering, Shipping and Delivery Best Best Good Best Better BestWebsite and Sales Support Better Better Good Best Better BestWarranty/Product Support Best Best Good Best Better BestPrice $ $$ $$$ $$ $ $$% of purchases
Hybrid Conjoint: “Nested” example
Requirements Identification &
Provider Performance Ratings
Constant Sum
Volumetric Conjoint
30
Baseline ScenarioWarrantyLength of coverage Transferrable lifetime warranty 1% Limited lifetime warranty 3% 10-20 year warranty 8% 3-5 year warranty 9% 1 year warranty 36% 90 day warranty 10% No warranty 1% None of the above 0% Don't know 31%Total 100%Quick resolution on warranty claims 67%Availability of replacement product if damaged during installation or defective 72%Overall ease of resolving warranty claims 44%
WarrantyLength of coverage Transferrable lifetime warranty 0% Limited lifetime warranty 75% 10-20 year warranty 0% 3-5 year warranty 0% 1 year warranty 0% 90 day warranty 0% No warranty 0% None of the above 0% Don't know 25%Total 100%Quick resolution on warranty claims 75%Availability of replacement product if damaged during installation or defective 75%Overall ease of resolving warranty claims 75%
Baseline Scenario Change % Change
Service Provider 20.0% 20.5% 0.5% 2.5%
Competition 80.0% 79.5% -0.5% -0.6%
TOTAL MARKET 100% 100%
TOTAL MARKET VIEW
Modeled Scenario
Baseline Scenario Change % Change
Service Provider 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Competition 80.0% 80.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TOTAL MARKET 100% 100%
TOTAL MARKET VIEW
Hybrid Conjoint Simulator
31
Product Mix Website Sales Support Order Processing Shipping and Delivery“Green” product offerings Navigational tools Available catalogs and brochures Order entry options Lead time on standard shipment On time deliveries Products made from sustainable, reusable or recycled materials
Tool bar or menu organized by product sub-category
Comprehensive catalogs and price books Printed order form/fax order option Product is delivered within 24 hours 99% or more deliveries are on time
Products made without harmful chemicals Search bar for locating products by keyword, item number or SKU
Accessible field sales representatives Phone order option Product is delivered in 2-3 days About 90% of deliveries are on time (9 out of 10)
Products that conserve water No more than 3 clicks to find what you're looking for
Prompt resolution from field sales representatives
Online or e-mail order option Product is delivered in 4-7 days About 75% of deliveries are on time (3 out of 4)
Products that are energy efficient or help conserve energy
Downloadable materials Ongoing product training EDI system Product is delivered in 1-2 weeks 50% or fewer deliveries are on time
Products contained in “green” packaging that is designed to reduce waste
PDF catalogs/brochures Quality relationships with field sales representatives
Type of order confirmation Product is delivered in 3-4 weeks Not applicable
Breadth of products and services PDF users manuals/guidebooks Product displays that you can “touch and feel” Fax/printed order confirmation Product is delivered in 5-7 weeks Total
Product offerings meet my needs Service provider contact information Manufacturer treats relationship as business partnership
Online order confirmation Product is delivered in 8 weeks or more Direct ship to job site
Variety of options within one type of product Detailed product information Courteous/professional field sales representatives
Timely order confirmation Not Applicable Low shipping cost
Variety of price points available (e.g. good, better, best)
Overall ease of navigation Quality of product information Order confirmation received instantly Total Shipments not damaged
Ease of installation Warranty Overall availability of product information Order confirmation received same day Order completion rate 99% or more shipments are not damaged
Building science expertise Length of coverage Product Quality Order confirmation received within 48 hours
99% or more orders are complete About 90% of shipments are not damaged (9 out of 10)
Cleanliness of work area post-installation Transferrable lifetime warranty Appearance No order confirmation provided About 90% of orders are complete (9 out of 10)
About 75% of shipments are not damaged (3 out of 4)
Consistency of installation quality Limited lifetime warranty Consistency of quality Not applicable About 75% of orders are complete (3 out of 4)
50% or fewer shipments are not damaged
Follow-up service completed in a timely manner 10-20 year warranty Durability Total 50% or fewer orders are complete Not applicableInstallation completed when promised 3-5 year warranty Dimensional consistency Accurate order confirmation Not applicable TotalWell-trained installers 1 year warranty Attention to detail 99% or more orders are accurate Total Customer ServiceMeeting contract/insurance requirements 90 day warranty About 90% of orders are accurate (9 out of
10)Accuracy of shipments Calls to representatives are
returned in a timely fashionPost-installation walk-throughs completed in a timely manner
No warranty About 75% of orders are accurate (3 out of 4)
99% or more shipments are accurate One point of contact
Quality of installations None of the above 50% or fewer orders are accurate About 90% of shipments are accurate (9 out of 10)
Product and service concerns are handled in a timely fashion
Responsiveness to project schedule Don't know Don't know About 75% of shipments are accurate (3 out of 4)
Representative is available to satisfy your needs
Success in passing inspections Total Total 50% or fewer shipments are accurate Representative is helpful in satisfying your needs
Timeliness of installations Quick resolution on warranty claims Online order tracking Not applicable Representative is knowledgeable about products
Availability of replacement product if damaged during installation or defective
Streamlined ordering and billing procedures Total Representative is knowledgeable about processes
Overall ease of resolving warranty claims Overall ease of order process Satisfactory billing practices
Complete hybrid model: Over 100 testable features in 9 product/service touch-points
Example Modeled
32
“What if” brand performance was
significantly improved?
“What if” brand performance was
significantly improved?
Share change as result of Service Level improvement
Share change as result of Service Level improvement
Hybrid Conjoint Simulator used to prioritize strategic service-level improvements (shipping category, ca 2002)
BASELINE
33
Full profile vs. Adaptive Conjoint
• Full profile shows all attributes and all levels of each attribute
However, every respondent sees a subset of combinations
• Adaptive shows partial profile, often based on preliminary screening
Ostensibly can handle more attributes
But concern is that attributes initially “dismissed” as unimportant might be evaluated differently in a full-profile
And a hybrid might be a better alternative if the attributes are “nested”
34
Types of Conjoint Exercises – Other Considerations
• Branded vs. un-branded Single or multiple-offerings per brand
• Ability to back in-out brands or products New brands, co-branding
Entirely new products
Retiring brands or products
New/old brand or product co-existence
TIP: Decide up front if you will need to back specific brands or offerings in and out. They should “appear and disappear” in the choice
sets respondents actually see.
35
TRUCKCaterpillar All 'WHITE' cells in the grid below can be modified by the user. Legal values range from -$3,000 to $3,000. Type "N/A" in the cell for any Truck/Engine combination that you'd like to exclude from your scenario.
Price Adjustment 0 n/a N/A N/A N/A620-OH C13 $106,500 ISX 12L DD 13 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 $108,000 ISX 15L DD 15720-OH C13 $106,500 ISX 12L DD 13 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 $108,000 ISX 15L DD 15715-OH C13 $106,500 ISX 12L DD 13 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 $108,000 ISX 15L DD 15
FreightlinerPrice Adjustment N/A N/A 0 N/A N/ACascadia C13 ISX 15L DD 13 $100,000 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 DD 15 $101,000Century Class C13 ISX 15L DD 13 $100,000 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 DD 15 $101,000Classic 112/120 C13 ISX 15L DD 13 $101,500 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 DD 15 $102,500Columbia 112/120 C13 ISX 15L DD 13 $102,000 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 DD 15 $103,000FLD 120 C13 ISX 15L DD 13 $100,000 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 DD 15 $101,000M2112 C13 ISX 12L DD 13 $100,000 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
InternationalPrice Adjustment 0 0 N/A N/A 0 N/APaystar 5000 Series C13 $100,000 ISX 15L $102,000 DD 13 MX MaxxForce 11 $100,000 MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 $101,500 ISX 16L $102,000 DD 15 MaxxForce 13 $100,000MaxxForce 15 $101,000
6000C C15 $106,500 ISX 15L $107,000 DD 13 MX MaxxForce 13 $105,000 MB/Hino/KomatsuISX 16L $107,000 DD 15 MaxxForce 15 $106,000
Workstar 7000 Series DD 13 MX MaxxForce 11 $100,000 MB/Hino/KomatsuMaxxForce 13 $100,000
9900 C15 $104,000 ISX 15L $104,500 DD 13 MX MaxxForce 13 $102,500 MB/Hino/KomatsuISX 16L $104,500 DD 15 MaxxForce 15 $103,500
Prostar C13 $100,000 ISX $102,000 DD 13 MX MaxxForce 11 $100,000 MB/Hino/KomatsuC15 $101,500 DD 15 MaxxForce 13 $100,000
MaxxForce 15 $101,000
KenworthPrice Adjustment N/A 0 N/A 0 N/AT660 C13 ISM $101,000 DD 13 MX $101,000 MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 ISX $102,000 DD 15T800 C13 ISX 12L $101,000 DD 13 MX $100,000 MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 ISX 15L $101,000 DD 15ISX 16L $101,000
W900 C13 ISX 12L $106,500 DD 13 MX $105,500 MB/Hino/KomatsuC15 ISX 15L $106,500 DD 15
ISX 16L $106,500
MackPrice Adjustment N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/AGranite C13 ISX 15L DD 13 MX MP7 $100,000 MB/Hino/Komatsu
MP8 $100,000Pinnacle C13 ISX 15L DD 13 MX MP7 $100,000 MB/Hino/Komatsu
MP8 $100,000
PeterbiltPrice Adjustment N/A 0 N/A 0 N/A365 C13 ISX 12L $101,000 DD 13 MX $100,000 MB/Hino/Komatsu
367 C13 ISX 12L $101,000 DD 13 MX $100,000 MB/Hino/KomatsuC15 ISX 15L $101,000 DD 15
ISX 16L $101,000386/387 C13 ISM $101,000 DD 13 MX $101,000 MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 ISX $102,000 DD15388/389 C13 ISX 12L $107,500 DD 13 MX $106,500 MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 ISX 15L $107,500 DD 15ISX 16L $107,500
SterlingPrice Adjustment N/A N/A $0 N/A N/AA-Line/L-Line C13 ISX 12L DD 13 $100,000 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 ISX 15L DD 15 $101,000
VolvoPrice Adjustment N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/AVNL64 C13 ISX 15L DD 13 MX VE-D13 $102,000 MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 ISX 16L DD 15 VE-D16 $103,000VT880 C15 ISX 16L DD 15 MX VE-D16 $104,000 MB/Hino/Komatsu
Western StarPrice Adjustment N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A4900 C13 ISX 12L DD 13 $103,000 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 ISX 15L DD 15 $104,000
Dummy TruckPrice Adjustment N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ADummy C13 ISX 12L DD 13 MX MB/Hino/Komatsu
C15 ISX 15L DD 15ISX 16L
Detroit Diesel Engine International Engine
To save an input scenario, press Ctrl-Shift-S. You will be asked for a name and a folder to save to.To load a scenario you created earlier, press Ctrl-Shift-L.
All 'WHITE' cells in the grid below can be modified by the user. Legal values range from -$3,000 to $3,000. Type "N/A" in the cell for any Truck/Engine combination that you'd like to exclude from your scenario.
Mack Engine Volvo Engine Dummy EngineENGINE
Paccar EngineCaterpillar Engine Cummins Engine
TRUCKCaterpillar All 'WHITE' cells in the grid below can be modified by the user. Legal values range from -$3,000 to $3,000. Type "N/A" in the cell for any Truck/Engine combination that you'd like to exclude from your scenario.
Price Adjustment 0 n/a N/A N/A620-OH C13 $106,500 ISX 12L DD 13 MX
C15 $108,000 ISX 15L DD 15720-OH C13 $106,500 ISX 12L DD 13 MX
C15 $108,000 ISX 15L DD 15715-OH C13 $106,500 ISX 12L DD 13 MX
C15 $108,000 ISX 15L DD 15
FreightlinerPrice Adjustment N/A N/A 0 N/ACascadia C13 ISX 15L DD 13 $100,000 MX
C15 DD 15 $101,000Century Class C13 ISX 15L DD 13 $100,000 MX
C15 DD 15 $101,000Classic 112/120 C13 ISX 15L DD 13 $101,500 MX
C15 DD 15 $102,500Columbia 112/120 C13 ISX 15L DD 13 $102,000 MX
C15 DD 15 $103,000FLD 120 C13 ISX 15L DD 13 $100,000 MX
C15 DD 15 $101,000M2112 C13 ISX 12L DD 13 $100,000 MX
InternationalPrice Adjustment 0 0 N/A N/APaystar 5000 Series C13 $100,000 ISX 15L $102,000 DD 13 MX
C15 $101,500 ISX 16L $102,000 DD 15
6000C C15 $106,500 ISX 15L $107,000 DD 13 MXISX 16L $107,000 DD 15
Workstar 7000 Series DD 13 MX
9900 C15 $104,000 ISX 15L $104,500 DD 13 MXISX 16L $104,500 DD 15
Prostar C13 $100,000 ISX $102,000 DD 13 MXC15 $101,500 DD 15
Detroit Diesel Engine Paccar EngineCaterpillar Engine Cummins Engine
Example truck JV “super-simulator” (ca 2007):•Multi-products per brand•Cross-branded offerings•Product back in-out•Brand back in-out
36
A few final tips:
• Keep trade-off exercise realistic and manageable Sufficient but not excessive number of attributes and options
No illogical combinations if some attributes depend on others
Keep pricing consistent with offerings on same screen
• Baseline and calibration are critical for forecasts Baseline configurations and shares should be empirically based
Simulator sensitivity often in need of adjustment
Proper data weighting critical to gauge movement off of baseline
• Purchase timing can be indeterminate unless built-in Can specify purchase period – e.g., “within next 12 months”
Can adjust forecasts based on actual incidence of purchases, cycles
• Conjoint assumes “perfect market awareness” Therefore, simulations often over-estimate actual uptake
Back-end adjustments often required
Recommended