Connecting downscaled climate data to ecological modeling

Connecting downscaled climate data to ecological modeling

NCPP Quantitative Evaluation of Downscaling

August 12-16, 2013, NCAR Foothills Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado

Jeff Morisette, Marian Talbert, and many others

Connecting downscaled climate data to ecological modeling

• It is a major focus of the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

• It is a major focus for the North Central Climate Science Center

• It is complex and difficult

Thanks!

Questions?

morisettej@usgs.gov303-968-8986

Outline

• Review of the Department of Interior Climate Science Centers

• Vulnerability Assessments and the NCPP pilot project

• Species Distribution Modeling and climate indices• A community-based integrated modeling

approach• Conclusions

Outline

• Review of the Department of Interior Climate Science Centers

• Vulnerability Assessments and the NCPP pilot project

• Species Distribution Modeling and climate indices• A community-based integrated modeling

approach• Conclusions

USGS-CSUResource forAdvanced Modeling

Catherine JarnevichTracy HolcombeColin TalbertMarian Talbert

Sunil KumarCam AldridgeTom StohlgrenDennis OjimaTom Hilinski

David KoopClaudio Silva

Petr VotavaRama Nemani

Paul Evangelista

Denis OjimaAndy HansenJoe Barsugli

David BlodgettEmily FortRobin O’MalleyShawn CarterDoug Beard

Secretarial Order 3289:DOI Climate Science Centers

Mission:To provide the best possible climate science to Department of Interior land managers

Outline

• Review of the Department of Interior Climate Science Centers

• Vulnerability Assessments and the NCPP pilot project

• Species Distribution Modeling and climate indices• A community-based integrated modeling

approach• Conclusions

A framework for Vulnerability Assessment

under a changing climate

Glick, P., Stein, B.A., and Edelson, N.A., eds., 2011, Scanning the conservation horizon: A guide to climate change vulnerability assessment: Washington, D.C., National Wildlife Federation, 176 p.

In space and time

Vulnerability

Potential Impact

Adaptive Capacity

Sensitivity

Exposure

Resistance

Resilience

Transition

Ecological Response

Models

DOI Management Objectives/Goals

Climate data based on results of objective, quantitative evaluation

Pilot Project

Climate dataUsing acceptable global climate models, considering:• Historical and future

scenarios and • Downscaling

techniques

NCPP provides:• Customized climate

summaries• Guidance on their

use and• Evaluation of

accuracy

Management Objectives/Goals

LCCs provide:• decision making

context• Target species,

habitat or ecosystem

Conceptual Models

General Characterization Models

Expert Opinion Models

Ecological Response Models

Habitat Occupancy Models

Vegetation/Habitat Response Models

Physiologically Based Models

Ecological Models

Outline

• Review of the Department of Interior Climate Science Centers

• Vulnerability Assessments and the NCPP pilot project

• Species Distribution Modeling and climate indices• A community-based integrated modeling

approach• Conclusions

Vulnerability Assessment through Species Distribution Modeling

Specific examples from impacts modeling: Mountain Pine Beetle

Evangelista PH, S Kumar, TJ Stohlgren, and NE Young 2011. Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US. Forest Ecology and Management 262: 307–316

2020 b2a

Current conditions

2020a2a

2050 b2a

2050a2a

potential distribution extent under current climate conditions

distribution increases

distribution decreases

Most important climate predictor was Precipitation of the warmest quarter

Using Maxent modeling and average of CCCMA, HadCM3, and CSIRO climate projections

Outstanding issues for indices

• Uncertainty how does climate model and projection uncertainty propagate to indices

• Multiple parameters for each indexwith little consensus or standard

• Significant combinatorics problemnumber of GCM x number of downscaling techniques x number of emissions scenarios x derivative parameters

Outline

• Review of the Department of Interior Climate Science Centers

• Vulnerability Assessments and the NCPP pilot project

• Species Distribution Modeling and climate indices• A community-based integrated modeling

approach• Conclusions

Vulnerability Assessment through Species Distribution Modeling

Vulnerability Assessment through Species Distribution Modeling

Preliminary model analysis & decision Output routines

Input data

Preprocessing

Correlative models

Morisette et al., 2013. VisTrails SAHM: visualization and workflow management for species habitat modeling. Ecography 36: 129–135. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07815.x

…making our modeling transparent and repeatable.

Preliminary model analysis & decision Output routines

Input data

Preprocessing

Correlative models

Outstanding issues for Ecological Response Modeling

• Species Distribution Modeling: we are just starting to work on: – more temporally refined modeling (for animal migration or life cycle

stages)– modeling the spatial distribution of a disease or infestations of a host

population; which requires some novel considerations– utilizing dynamic vegetation models as input to the species

distribution models– consideration of distributional metrics

• The NC CSC is working with USGS Modeling of Watershed Systems on integrating the USGS USGS Monthly Water Balance model into VisTrails

• Most ecological response models involve a decision on how to extract gridded data for point observations

Visual MDS and Model OutputExample: Resource Selection Analysis (RSF tool) courtesy of Bob Crabtree, YERC

Single point ‘drilling down through’ data layers is basis for most modeling approaches

Model prediction

1

2

3

4

Merged Data Set

Summary and Conclusion

1. The Department of Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs) are working to bring the best possible climate science to land management decisions.

2. The North Central CSC is organized around three foundational science teams (climate, impacts, and adaptation).

3. Climate derivatives (or indices) are a key component to relating climate information to species vulnerability assessments through species distribution modeling.

4. NC CSC is focusing on species distribution modeling with predictor layers (including climate derivatives) remaining in “the cloud” accessed through machine services.

5. The NC CSC welcomes collaboration from the climate modeling and climate derivatives community on these issues.