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8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011
1/11
8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011
2/112 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company.
Global consumer confidence increased one index point lastquarter to 89, while Europe led confidence declines in 24 of theregions 27 measured markets, according to fourth quarter 2011global consumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a leadingglobal provider of information and insights into what consumerswatch and buy.
While Europes challenging economic conditions in the second halfof 2011 bought renewed vulnerability and fragility to consumersand financial markets globally, some of the most positive news lastquarter came from the worlds two largest economiesthe U.S.
and Chinawhere confidence rebounded to Q1 2011 levels, saidDr. Venkatesh Bala, Chief Economist at The Cambridge Group, apart of Nielsen. Buoyant domestic consumption also maintainedconfidence levels in the large emerging economies of India,Indonesia and Brazil. However, slowing GDP growth within emergingeconomies and inflationary pressures would suggest some degree ofcaution for the year ahead.
In the latest round of the survey, conducted between November23 and December 9, 2011, overall confidence levels fell in 60percent of global markets measured with confidence declinesin 35 out of 56 markets. Confidence rose in 12 markets andremained flat in nine.
The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence andSpending Intentions established in 2005, tracks consumerconfidence, major concerns and spending intentions amongmore than 28,000 Internet consumers in 56 countries. Consumerconfidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate
degrees of optimism and pessimism.
China confidence increases four points to 108
More than half (52%) describe finances as excellent/good, but 65%think it is not a good time to buy
Consumer Confidence around the world increases one point to 89
Confidence declines in 24of 27 European markets
U.S. consumer confidence index increases 6 points to 83
OVERALL CONFIDENCELEVELS FELL IN
60%OF GLOBALMARKETS MEASURED
8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011
3/11
8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011
4/114 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company.
More than half (52%) of global online consumers described theirpersonal finances for 2012 as excellent/good, up from 50 percentin Q3 2011, but 65 percent indicated it is not a good time to buy,up one percent from the previous quarter.
Overall, consumer discretionary spending will remain restrainedand cautious in the first half of 2012, said Dr. Bala. Despiteconsumers becoming more confident about their personalfinances for the year ahead, there is still a reluctance to spend,especially in the West; rising tensions in the Middle East andtheir impact on gasoline prices could further compound globalconsumer concerns and spending plans, added Dr. Bala.
Consumer concern for the economy increased as a top fearamong 18 percent of global respondentsan increase of sixpoints from last quarter, which resulted in nearly two-thirds(64%) of consumers around the world indicating they believe
they are in a recession, up from 62 percent last quarter. Agrowing number of online respondents in Asia Pacific (53%),Europe (74%), Middle East/Africa (74%) and Latin America (47%)indicated they believe they are in a recession. And while 86percent of North Americans feel they are in a recession, it wasthe only region to report an improvement from 88 percent inthird quarter.
Personal finances are improved,but spending is still restrained
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q4 2011
Personal finances are up, but good time to buy is down
GROWING NUMBER OF CONSUMERS BELIEVE THEY ARE IN A RECESSION
Not a good time
to buy52%
53%
65%Personal financesgood/excellent
Asia PacificQ4
50%Q3
47%Latin AmericaQ4
46%Q3
74%EuropeQ4
71%Q3
74%Middle East/Africa Q4
73%Q3
86%Q4
88%Q3
North America
8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011
5/11 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. 5
Boosted largely by an improved outlook in personal financesfor the year ahead, North America posted the biggest regionalquarterly gain among global regions (+5 points) to 84, whileAsia Pacific (99) and Latin American (98) were the worlds
most confident regions with quarterly increases of two andone point(s), respectively. Confidence fell by one point in theMiddle East/Africa (95), and Europe recorded its lowest regionalconfidence reading since Q1 2009 at 71 points, a quarterlydecline of three points.
India remained the worlds most optimistic market for the eighthconsecutive quarter with a one point consumer confidenceindex increase to 122, followed by Indonesia and the Philippinesat 117. Hungary was the worlds most pessimistic market at
30 index points, followed by Portugal (36) and Greece (41),where quarterly confidence levels fell seven, four and 10 points,respectively. European markets accounted for nine of the 10most depressed markets last quarter.
The biggest quarterly confidence gains last quarter came fromRomania (+10), the United States and Australia (+6), Venezuela,Philippines and Columbia (+5) and China (+4), while the steepestquarterly declines came from Taiwan (-16), Czech Republic (-12),Greece (-10) and Belgium (-9).
Regional Roundup
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q4 2011
Asia Pacific dominates the top 10 Consumer Confidence Index scores, Europe leads the bottom
122
117
117
113
112
108
105
104
103
101
30
36
41
43
46
49
55
55
56
59
India
Indonesia
Philippines
Saudi Arabia
Brazil
China
UAE
Thailand
Australia
Malaysia
Hungary
Portugal
Greece
Croatia
South Korea
Italy
France
Spain
Japan
Romania
8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011
6/116 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company.
Consumer confidence rises in the U.S. and China
Americans saw an improvement in their personal finances for theyear ahead with nearly half (49%) saying their personal financialprospects looked good/excellent, up from 43 percent comparedto the previous quarter, which spurred a six-point consumerconfidence index jump to 83 in Q4.
While there are headwinds impacting the consumer such asweak housing, elevated commodity prices and uneven growth,recent gains in the U.S. labor market are positively impactingsentiment, although we are still well below pre-recession highs,said James Russo, VP Global Consumer Insights. Elevated levelsof long-term unemployment along with a stubbornly highpercentage of consumers reporting they have no spare cash(32%), raises a caution flag for 2012 spending. Additionally, overthe past year consumers have been drawing down savings tospend in the absence of real income and wage growth, a situationwhich will have to change in order for them to boost or evensustain their spending.
While a boost in U.S. consumer confidence is positive, theindex is still at the same level when the recession hit. There isstill a great deal of consumer angst regarding the health of oureconomy and health of consumer finances, said Todd Hale, SVPConsumer & Shopper Insights, Nielsen U.S. Across consumer
packaged goods retailing, inflationary pressures, not increasedconsumer demand, have had the biggest impact on departmentsand categories exhibiting dollar volume growth through the thirdquarter of 2011.
In China, the easing of food inflation over the past five monthshas significantly driven food prices down and adjustmentsto macro-economic policies have re-energized growth,particularly through more loans, which partly resulted in thefour point confidence climb to an index of 108, said Yan Xuan,President, Nielsen Greater China. Continued governmentand non-government investment in developing the countryswestern and northeastern regions plus less dependence onmanufacturing export in these regions is also fueling optimismamong Chinese consumers.
100
90
110
80
70
China
U.S.
Q1 Q3
2005
Q1 Q3
2006
Q1 Q3
2007
Q1 Q3
2008
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2009
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2011
+4
+6
Consumer confidence rises in the U.S. and China
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q4 2011
8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011
7/11 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. 7
Jobs and finances remain fragile andvulnerable in Europe
Consumer confidence fell in 24 out of 27 European marketsmeasured by Nielsen last quarter as the impact of the regionsdebt crisis, currency woes and Italys political and economicuncertainty sent shockwaves throughout the region and intointernational financial markets, said Dr. Bala. With the Euro
zone already slipping into recession and the introduction of newor further austerity measures due to take effect in major Europeaneconomies at the start of this year, the regions outlook for jobprospects and personal finances remains fragile and vulnerable forthe year ahead, added Dr. Bala.
In Q4 2011, less than one in four (23%) Europeans rated jobprospects as good/excellent, down from 26 percent in Q3, and28 percent from a year ago. And while job prospects are lookingmore upbeat among Germans, where more than half (52%) ratedemployment opportunities as good/excellent (up 11 percentyear-on-year), job prospects continue to be bleak for recession-hitSouthern European markets of Italy, Greece and Spain.
Germanys economic situation is stable on a relatively high level,said Ivar Michaelsen, Group Managing Director, Nielsen Germany.German consumers feel concerned regarding the economicsituation in general because of the ongoing Euro crisis, but they donot expect direct effects on their personal situation for the moment.
As a consequence, German consumers are at this stage relativelyconfident about their personal perspectives with regard to their jobs,personal finances and buying intentions for the year ahead.
Italy, Belgium, Czech Republic, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Portugal,Spain and Croatia all recorded a six-year confidence low last quarter.In Hungary, a perfect storm of factors is contributing to low anddeclining consumer confidence, said Judit SzalokyToth, ManagingDirector, Nielsen Hungary. Rising taxes and unpredictablegovernment regulations coupled with declining disposable incomehas fueled insecurity and pessimism among consumers.
In Spain, a favorable outlook for job prospects fell to 10 percentin Q4down from 25 percent the prior year. In Italy, good/
excellent employment sentiment fell ten points year-on-year toeight percent last quarter. And in Greece, a positive job outlookdeclined to four percent from 11 percent last year.
Consumer confidence fell in 24 of 27 European markets measured
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q4 2011
No change
Increase
Decrease
89
59
9298
85848377 76
7271 706968666560
555549
434136
30
90 8887
Norway
Switzer
land
Austria
Denma
rk
Sweden
Germany
Nether
lands
Russia
Turkey
Belgium
Finland
Poland
United
Kingdom
Ukraine
Lithuan
ia
Latvia
Estonia
CzechR
epublic
Ireland
Romania
France
Spain
Italy
Croatia
Greece
Portugal
Hungar
y
8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011
8/118 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company.
Asia Pacific continues as the most
optimistic region
Asia Pacific continues as the most optimistic region,boasting seven of the top 10 highest index scores.Confidence rose in nearly half (six of 14) of the Asia Pacificmarkets in the Nielsen survey, fell in five and remained flat
in threeMalaysia, Singapore and Japan. Taiwans decline of16 points to an index of 71, the lowest point in 24 monthsand approaching levels following the 2008 global financialcrisis, was most notable.
Indias one point consumer confidence index increaseto 122 is the highest score of 56 countries measured,followed by Indonesia and the Philippines with an indexof 117. The stabilization of Indias consumer confidencemetric is encouraging and the retention of the top spotglobally reminds us of the inherent strength of the Indianeconomy, the savings mindset of the Indian consumer, andthe positivity of consumer sentiment which has likely beenhelped by the recent cooling of inflationary pressure, saidJustin Sargent, Managing Director, Nielsen India.
The sharp drop in Taiwanese consumer confidence is mainlydriven by a strong decline in job prospects and a rise inconcern for the current economic environment, said EmilieDarolles, Managing Director, Nielsen Taiwan. In the shortterm, we expect consumers willingness to spend to slowdown and the propensity to save to increase. The upcomingChinese New Year Festival will likely help boost some of thedomestic consumption in Q1, but Taiwanese consumers willcontinue to be conservative in 2012.
35%
36%
30%
19%
35%
26%
64%
33%
13%
7%
2%
29%
31%
22%
19%
28%
28%
48%
19%
10%
16%
2%
Putting intoSavings
Holidays/Vacations
New Clothes
Out-of-HomeEntertainment
Pay off Debts/Credit Cards/ Loans
New TechnologyProducts
HomeImprovement/
Decorating
Investing in Stocks/Mutual Funds
I Have NoSpare Cash
Retirement Fund
Dont Know/Undecided
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence andSpending Intentions, Q4 2011
Compared to the global average, Asia Pacific consumersplan to save, invest and spend more
Asia Pacific
How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses
Global Average
8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011
9/11 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. 9
Latin America reports mixed results
In Latin America, Brazil recorded the highest consumerconfidence in the region with an index of 112the fifthhighest score of 56 countries measured. Confidence rose fivepoints in Colombia and Venezuela, fell in Peru (-4), Mexico(-2), and Argentina (-1) and remained flat in Chile. LatinAmericans are the most confident in regards to personal
finances in 2012 with 66 percent describing their outlook asgood/excellent for the coming year.
Brazil continues to experience gradual economic growthwith a dip in unemployment, inflation control, an expansionof credit and political stability, said Eduardo Ragasol,Managing Director, Nielsen Brazil. More Brazilians todayhave the opportunity to buy products that were previouslyonly accessible to the higher social classes, which iscontributing to the optimism in the country.
Positive economic results are driving Colombias increasedconsumer confidence, said Felipe Urdaneta, CountryManager, Nielsen Colombia. Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth is up 7.7 percent in third quarterthe highestin last five years, unemployment is going down for the thirdconsecutive month and Nielsen fast-moving consumergoods unit sales increased five percent last quarter.
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and
Spending Intentions, Q4 2011
In Latin America, at-home entertainment takes
preference over going out
Actions thisyear
Money-saving tactics for groceries, telephone expenses
and electricity will continue
Will continuenext year
18%
50%
33%
13%
37%
39%
46%
45%
38%
25%
24%
19%
29%
36%
6%
13%21%
5%
16%
19%
11%
15%
26%
32%
36%
15%
7%
14%
13%
9%
12%
5%
Use My CarLess Often
Cut Down on At-homeEntertainment
Cut Down on Out-of-HomeEntertainment
Cut Down onTake-Away Meals
Cut Down on Smoking
Spend Less onNew Clothes
Switch to CheaperGrocery Brands
Cut Down onTelephone Expenses
Cut Down/Buy CheaperBrands of Alcohol
Look for Better Dealson Loans, Credit Cards, etc
Delay Replacement ofMajor Household Items
Delay Upgrading Technology,e.g. Pc, Mobile, Etc
I Have Taken OtherActions Not Listed Above
Try to Save on Gasand Electricity
Cut Down onHolidays/Short Breaks
Cut Out Annual Vacation
8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011
10/1110 Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company.
Job security is a top concern in Middle East / Africa
In the six Middle East/African markets covered by the Nielsensurvey, confidence rose in Pakistan (+3), fell in Saudi Arabia (-7),Egypt (-5), Israel (-1), and remained flat in United Arab Emiratesand South Africa. The top concern for one in five consumers inthe Middle East/Africa is job securityfive points higher than theglobal average. Worries over political stability and the economyare two other top concerns among 12 percent of respondents each.
Political turmoil in the Middle East and doubts towards futureoil demand, which is indispensible for the Saudi economy, andsubsequent austerity measures has led to depressed consumersentiments in Saudi Arabia, said Arslan Ashraf, Managing Director,Nielsen Saudi Arabia. However, through hefty stimulus packages,the Saudi government is making efforts to insulate the economyfrom these global and regional developments.
Egypts turbulent political year in 2011, led to rising food pricesand a slide in foreign reserves as tourism and export businessessuffered from the dramatic current events, said Ram MohanRao, Managing Director, Nielsen Egypt. Hopes and fears amongEgyptians will prevail in 2012 as elections for a new civilianpresident will be in June 2012.
JOB SECURITY
Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, Q4 2011
Job security is a top concern among one in five consumers in the Middle East/Africa
THE ECONOMY
POLITICAL STABILITY
INCREASING FOOD PRICES
CHILDRENS EDUCATION
AND/OR WELFARE
PARENTS WELFARE
AND HAPPINESS
WORK/LIFE BALANCE
DEBT
TERRORISM
CRIME
20%
12%
12%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
4%
4%
8/21/2019 Consumer Confidence 2011
11/11
For more information visit www.nielsen.com
Country abbreviations:Argentina ARAustralia AUAustria ATBelgium BEBrazil BRCanada CA
China CNChile CLColombia COCroatia HRCzech Republic CZDenmark DKEgypt EGEstonia EEFinland FIFrance FRGermany DEGreece GRHong Kong HK
Hungary HUIndia INIndonesia IDIreland IE
Israel ILItaly ITJapan JPLatvia LVLithuania LTMalaysia MY
Mexico MXNetherlands NLNew Zealand NZNorway NOPakistan PKPeru PEPhilippines PHPoland PLPortugal PTRomania RORussia RUSaudi Arabia SASingapore SG
South Africa SASouth Korea KOSpain ESSweden SE
About the Nielsen Global Survey
The Nielsen Global Survey was conductedbetween November 23 and December 9,2011 and polled more than 28,000 onlineconsumers in 56 countries throughoutAsia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the
Middle East, Africa and North America.The sample has quotas based on ageand sex for each country based on theirInternet users, and is weighted to berepresentative of Internet consumersand has a maximum margin of errorof 0.6%. This Nielsen survey is basedon the behavior of respondents withonline access only. Internet penetrationrates vary by country. Nielsen uses aminimum reporting standard of 60percent Internet penetration or 10Monline population for survey inclusion. The
Nielsen Global Survey, which includes theGlobal Consumer Confidence Index, wasestablished in 2005.
About Nielsen
Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) isa global information and measurementcompany with leading market positionsin marketing and consumer information,television and other media measurement,
online intelligence, mobile measurement,trade shows and related properties.Nielsen has a presence in approximately100 countries, with headquarters in NewYork, USA and Diemen, the Netherlands.For more information, visitwww.nielsen.com.
Switzerland CHTaiwan TWThailand THTurkey TRUnited Arab Emirates AEGreat Britain GB
Ukraine UAUnited States USVenezuela VEVietnam VN
Region abbreviations:AP Asia PacificEU EuropeLA Latin AmericaMEAP Middle East, Africa,
PakistanNA North America
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are
trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN Trademarks L L C Other product and service
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