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Corporate presentation
December 2018
1 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be accepted
by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation
and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty.
Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been obtained from
and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any such information may be
incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are subject to change without notice. The
Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein.
In addition, certain of these data come from the Group’s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge and
experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying methodology
have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you should not place undue
reliance on them.
Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are subject to
risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include, among other
factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are cautioned not to place any
reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be construed as a profit forecast and no
representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to pass. Persons receiving this presentation should
not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are advised to make their own independent analysis and
determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect the Group’s view only as of the date hereof.
Legal
Important Notice – Forward Looking Information
Table of Contents
1 Overview
2 Financial Highlights
3 Profitability
4 Asset Quality
5 Liquidity
6 Capital
7 Macro
8 Appendix
Overview
1
4 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Successfully completed most strategic objectives since the 2015 recapitalization,
building a strong track record
Completed
divestments of FB,
Astir & PE funds
Increased loan loss
coverage to the
highest level among
peers
Exceeded NPE and
NPL reduction targets
Completion of VES of
c1.200 employees
2016
FY.17 Group OpEx
declines by 6% yoy
Exceeded 2017 NPE
reduction targets by
more than €0.8b
Divestments of UBB
& Vojvo enhance
further capital and
liquidity position
ELA elimination
€1.5b loan
disbursements to
corporates
2017
2015
Recapitalizatio
n following
AQR
Restructuring
plan approval
by EC
Overview
Successful ST result due
to high CET1
Return to profitability on
substantially lower CoR
Liquidity channeled to
healthy corporates picks
up in YE το c€3b
Disposal of €2b of
unsecured retail NPLs at
c6c, capital accretive and
P&L positive
VES of more than 500
employees
Divestments of NBG
Albania and SABA
Significant progress in
NBG Cyprus, BROM &
NBG Egypt
Revised strategy and
change of leadership
2018
5 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
C) Efficiency Improvement
A) Funding Cost Improvement
1. 2Q15 figures include the Ethniki Insurance Company
2. Down due to restructuring impact
3. Excludes the Ethniki Insurance company agreed to be sold
4. Expected NBG inflows in the 2 years following the imposition of capital controls at c.€3-4b, actual experienced at €3.9b
NBG delivery of medium term targets envisaged in the 2015 capital raise
Overview
D) CoR Evolution
B) Business Mix Optimization & Income growth
Greece
2Q15 3Q18 Δ
Time deposits repricing (bps) 185 83 -102
Reduction of ELA (€ b) 17.6 0.0 -17.6
Elimination of Pillar bonds (€ b) 8.7 0.0 -8.7
Deposit inflows (€ b)4 3-4 4.7
Greece
2Q151 3Q183 Δ
Gross Corporate loans / Total
loans (%)39.7 41.5 +180bps ●
Lending yield2 (bps) 411 359 -54 ●
Net Interest Income (€ m) 379 253 -126
Net Interest Margin (bps) 249 260 +13 ●
Fee Income / Assets (bps) 30 39 +9 ●
Greece
2Q151 3Q183 Δ
# of employees (in 000s) 12.4 9.5 -2.9
Employee wage bill (€ m, ann.) 664 548 -116
Greece
FY14A FY17A 3Q18A
CoR (bps) 270 249 109
P&L charge (€ m, annualized) 1,000 771 312
6 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Comprehensive strategic objectives of Transformation Program deliver low NPE
exposure and a profitable bank by 2022
Utilize high coverage levels to work through NPLs faster, delivering a
residual net NPE exposure by 2022
Capitalize on liquidity advantage to increase market share and core
income
Rationalize costs to improve efficiency meaningfully
Produce a high RoE and enhance organic capital generation
Overview
Financial Highlights
2
8 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
NPE reduction continues, CET1 solid at 16.4%
Asset Quality, Liquidity & Capital Highlights Key Ratios - Group
9M18 3Q18 2Q18 9M17
Liquidity
Loans-to-Deposits ratio1 72% 72% 74% 83%
ELA exposure (€ b) 0 0 0 2.3
LCR 124% 124% 86% n/a
Profitability
NIM (bps) 273 263 270 310
Cost of Risk (bps)2 123 107 105 238
Risk Adjusted NIM3 150 156 165 72
Asset quality
NPE ratio 42.0% 42.0% 42.1% 45.2%
NPE coverage ratio 59.8% 59.8% 60.2% 55.9%
Capital
CET1 ratio CRD IV FL 16.4% 16.4% 16.2% 16.6%
RWAs (€ bn) 35.0 35.0 36.1 38.5
Highlights
Domestic NPE stock reduction continues for 10 straight quarters
• NPE reduction continues in 3Q, driven by measured write offs as organic formation
affected by seasonality
• Net NPE reduction achieved since the beginning of the SSM program of €5.6b is a
mixture of organic actions driving a reduction of €2.1b, as well as fully provided write
offs, c€2b of which subsequently sold
• NPE and NPL coverage at sector leading levels of 60% and 84%, added to collateral
coverage yields a total coverage well above 100% across all business lines
Domestic deposits reach €40b
• Domestic deposits pick up in 3Q despite capital control relaxation
• LCR & NSFR currently at 124% & 103%, exceeding the minimum regulatory thresholds
• Zero impact on liquidity and funding cost from ECB’s waiver removal on the back of
NBG issued investment grade covered bonds replacing Greek sovereign paper
• Superior liquidity position and lowest funding cost allowed NBG to accelerate
disbursements in 4Q tapping the ongoing pick up in credit demand
CET1 ratio at 16.4%, +20bps qoq
• CET1 at 16.4% includes impairment charges on BROM, excludes RWA deconsolidation
impact.
• Pro forma for the 9M18 PAT and the sale of SABA, CET1 stands at 16.6% and 13.1% on a
FL basis, taking into account the full IFRS9 impact
1. FY17 restated for IFRS9 FTA, 2. 9M/2Q.18 CoR is adjusted for the one off related to NPL sales, 3.Risk Adjusted NIM= NIM-Cost of Risk
9 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
€ m 9M18 9M17 YoY 3Q18 2Q18 QoQ
NII 838 1 062 -21% 274 276 -0.8%
Net Fees & Commissions 181 174 +4% 59 59 +0.3%
Core Income 1 019 1 236 -18% 333 335 -0.4%
Trading & other income 17 (29) n/m 8 (16) n/m
Income 1 036 1 207 -14% 342 319 +7%
Operating Expenses (713) (694) +3% (245) (238) +2.7%
Core PPI 306 542 -44% 88 97 -9%
PPI 323 513 -37% 97 81 +20%
Provisions (239) (588) -59% (81) (38) >100%
Operating Profit 84 (75) n/m 16 44 -64%
Other impairments (9) (5) +67% 1 (11) n/m
PBT 75 (80) n/m 17 33 -48%
Taxes (27) (23) +18% (9) (12) -22%
PAT (cont. ops) 48 (103) n/m 8 21 -62%
PAT (discont. ops) 55 (49) n/m 17 14 +24%
One-offs (40) - - - (40) n/m
Minorities (27) (26) +4% (8) (10) -18%
PAT 36 (178) n/m 17 (15) n/m
P&L Highlights
9M18 PAT from continued operations at €48m against losses of €103m in 9M17
Highlights
Group P&L
9M18 group operating result of €84m vs losses of €75m in 9M17, is
driven by two key P&L movements:
• Lower NII (-21% yoy) that carries the one off impacts from IFRS9
FTA and the repricing of part of the mortgage book linked with
Greek 12 months T-bills during 1H, as well as the continuing impact
of restructurings and deleveraging on the retail book. However, NII
appears to have troughed in 2Q and 3Q, especially in view of large
disbursements in 4Q
• A sharp yet sustained reduction in credit risk charges dropping
by 59% yoy, translating into an adjusted for one-offs CoR of 123bps
in 9M8
• 3Q18 credit risk charges imply a CoR of 107bps compared to an
adjusted for one offs 2Q18 CoR of 105bps
• Non core income returns to positive territory in both 3Q and in
the 9 months
• Group OpEx in 9M18, up by 2.7%, affected by one offs, is set to
return to negative growth rates as the ongoing VES program has
exceeded 500 employees, due to leave the Bank within 2018; cost
savings at a minimum of €25m per annum
Profitability
3
11 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Group operating margin decomposition1 (bps)
Group operating result bridge (€ m)
1. PPI margin & CoR are calculated over net loans
2. 2Q18 CoR is adjusted for one offs related to NPL sales
9M18 group operating profit at €84m relative to a loss of €75m in 9M17, as risk
adjusted NII recovers
Profitability
Group PPI by region (€ m)
Group PPI bridge (€ m)
81
-2 0
+25
-7
97
2Q18 ΔNII Δfees Δnon core
income
ΔOpEx 3Q18
+19.8%
106128
-105 -107
2Q18 3Q18
Group PPI
margin (bps)
Group
CoR (bps)2
Group
operating
margin (bps)
72
90
10
781
97
2Q18 3Q18
+25.7%
-27.1%
QoQ
1 21
SEE & Other
Greece
Group operating
profit (€m) 162
-75
-224 -19
+46
+4
84
9Μ17 ΔNII ΔOpex Δnon core
income
Δfees Δprovisions 9Μ18
+349
+46 +7o/w -€53m due
to lower unwind
& -€64m due to
lower interest
from NPEs
12 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Evolution of domestic net loans (€ b)
Domestic NIM & CoR (bps)
1. NIM calculated on a daily average basis
2. Risk Adjusted NIM = NIM-Cost of Risk.
3. Risk Adj NIM & CoR is adjusted for the NPL sales
Greece: On a risk and cash holdings adjusted basis, 3Q NIM (a) remains high and (b)
appears to have troughed; NII comprises mostly of PE interest
Profitability
Domestic NII evolution (€ m)
Domestic NII breakdown (€ m)
28.6
-0.1 -0.0 -0.0
0.0 28.4
2Q18 Mortgages Consumer SBLs Corporate 3Q18
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Loans 339 330 298 286 283
Deposits -36 -39 -39 -36 -38
Securities 31 31 26 23 26
Eurosystem &
wholesale-15 -14 -14 -13 -14
Subs & other -8 -6 -3 -5 -5
Total 310 302 269 255 253
255
-3 -2
+3 +1 0 253
2Q18 Loans Deposits Securities Eur/stem &
wholesale
Subs &
other
3Q18
309323
296 281273
197
250
167
107109
112
73129
174
164
314330
305 294292
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
NIM1
Risk Ad.
NIM2.3
CoR3
o/w €22m
unwind
NIM ex cash
13 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
18.1 18.5 18.4 18.6 18.9
7.58.8 7.7 8.2 8.4
11.111.0 12.2 12.5 12.8
36.738.4 38.4
39.3 40.0
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Time
Sight &
other
Savings
+8.4% yoy
Greek deposit yields (bps)
14
18 17 17 16
90
86 8784 83
39 40 40 4038
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Domestic deposit franchise keeps recovering with core deposits retaining their high
share
Profitability
Greek deposits evolution (€ b)
Time
Total
69% 70% 71% 68% 68% Core deposits/total
Market share at
36%
Core
+€3.3 b yoy
14 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Greek lending yields2 (bps)
Greek loan evolution (€ b)Greek forborne1, non forborne1 & total lending yields
254 253 247 222 214
935 922 915 896 880
625 619 605 602 600
390 389 382 387 377
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
10.9 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.3
2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
12.5 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8
26.9 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Corporate
SBL
Consumer
Mortgages
1. Including >90dpd
2. Calculated on performing loans including FNPEs<90dpd
Corporate performing balances are expected to increase on the back of increased
disbursements in 4Q
Profitability
Consumer
SBLs
Corporate
Mortgages
-0.9% qoq
30.3 30.3 28.9 28.6 28.4 Net loans
Performing loans
at 385 bps
at 457 bps
at 684 bps
new
production
at 1,239 bps
4.1% 4.1% 4.1%
3.1%
2.9% 2.9%
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Not Forborne
Forborne
385 377 368 359388Total Book
Total
15 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
21 22 24
68 7120 21
21
6563
11 11 9
35 30
53 54 54
167165
3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 Column1 9Μ17 9Μ18
Fund mgm,
Brokerage &
other
Wholesale
Banking Fees
Retail
Banking Fees
53 54 54
167 165
6 6 6
1717
59 59 59
184181
3Q17 2Q18 3Q18 Column1 9M17 9M18
Group fee income by region excl. ELA fees (€ m)
9Μ18 domestic fees are negatively affected by lower brokerage & other non core
banking fees
Profitability
Domestic fees excl. ELA fees (€ m)
Fees/Assets1
Total
SEE &
Other
0.38%
Greece
0.41% 0.42%
-1.8%
YoY
+0.0%
-1.7%
1: Excluding assets held for sale
ELA cost 2 9 00.41% 0.41% 0 0
16 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Domestic Branch evolution (#)
Group OpEx by category (€ m)
Impact of personnel cost reduction from >500 FTE VES will become evident beginning
in 4Q18 and the ongoing closure of 75 branches by 2Q19
Profitability
Group OpEx evolution (€ m)
Headcount evolution (‘000)
Greece Group
9M18 9M17 Yoy 9M18 9M17 Yoy
Personnel 407 399 +2.1% 437 430 +1.7%
G&As 187 174 +7.2% 208 194 +6.9%
Depreciation 65 66 -2.3% 68 70 -2.3%
Total 658 639 +3.0% 713 694 +2.7%
540 528 527510 486 483 461
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 9M18 Nov.18
15.012.2 12.0
9.9 9.8 9.8 9.6 9.5
10.1
7.9 7.8
1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
25.1
20.1 19.8
11.5 11.5 11.5 11.2 11.1
FY09 1 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
SEE &
Other
Greece
1. Excludes Ethniki Insurance, SABA and BROM employees
146 149 145 146 147
91 10086 92 98
237248
231 238 245
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
G&A &
other
Staff
Total
11 111
9m18 one off
performance
based pay for
Special units and
retrospective pay
of €6.7m
Due to higher 3rd
party fees
(consulting)
As of
November,
VES has
exceeded
500
employees
Asset quality
4
18 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Domestic NPE stock evolution (€ b)
Domestic NPE stock per category – 3Q18 (€ b)
NPE stock down €2.4b during the past 12 months
Asset quality
NPE flows (€ m, SSM perimeter)
Domestic NPE stock movement (€ b)
16.1
11.5
5.5
1.2 1.7
3.1
1.6
0.30.3
2.4
7.1
1.52.0
5.5
Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate
FNPE & other
impaired
90dpd
13.9 12.8 12.0 11.7 11.5
4.64.8 4.7 4.7 4.6
18.5 17.6 16.8 16.3 16.1
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
FNPEs & other
impaired
90dpd
45.3% 44.1% 43.1% 42.6% 42.5%NPE ratio1
22.0
-1.6 -1.2
19.2
-0.2 -1.3
17.7
-0.2 -0.6 -0.1
16.8
-0.1 -0.2 -0.2
16.3
-0.0 -0.2
16.1
391 321 351 363 383
-416-338 -401 -394 -349
-101-34 -41
-233
-36
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
NPE inflows
NPE outflows
Liquidations,
sales & other
-51 -91 -264 -2-126
1 FY17 restated for IFRS9
19 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Mortgages (€ m)
* SSM perimeter
Asset quality
3Q NPE formation is driven by Corporates
Consumer (€ m) NPE formation* (€ m)
SBLs (€ m) Corporate (€ m)
30 27
69
-3
42
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
-20-5 -7
-97
24
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
-12
-48
-12
-142
0
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
-124
-25
-140
-23
-68
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
-126
-51
-91
-264
-2
-22
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Oct'18
20 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Mortgages (€ m)
Asset quality
90dpd formation reduction reflects corporate & SB books
Consumer (€ m) Domestic 90dpd formation (€ m)
SBLs (€ m) Corporate (€ m)
-18-95
22 14 14
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
11
-20
13
-72
27
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
-6-35
-8
-106
-20
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
79
-161-84
-36-74
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
66
-311
-57
-199
-53
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
21 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Domestic NPE ratios and coverage
Domestic 90dpd ratios
1. Cash provisions incorporate additional haircuts on the market value of collateral to account for the prospect of distressed sale; all numbers bank level
Lowest 90dpd and NPE ratios in Greece combine with the highest provision coverage,
facilitating the implementation of a new NPE strategy driven by closure actions
Asset quality
Domestic forborne stock (€ bn)
Domestic 90dpd – NPE bridge (€ bn)
Cash
coverage
Cash
coverage
19% 44% 52% 23% 25%LLAs/
Gross loans
11.5
3.1 1.10.4
16.1
90dpd FNPE <30 FNPE 31-90 Other impaired NPEs
54%
115%
90%
121% 83.5% 82.4%
35%
38%
58%
19%
30.4% 30.4%
Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group
42%
94%
77%
68% 59.8% 59.8%
45% 47%
68%
34%
42.5% 42.0%
Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group
FNPE<30 dpd
3.1
FNPE 31-90dpd
1.1
FNPE >90dpd
2.7
FPE 2.7
9.7
Collateral
coverage172% 12% 59% 56% 59%
SEE & other:
90dpd ratio: 31%
Coverage: 64%
SEE & other:
NPE ratio: 33%
Coverage: 61%
Collateral
coverage170% 12% 58% 55% 58%
22 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Group loan staging and evolution (€ b)
Asset quality
Highest S3 coverage at 56%
Group S2 ratios and coverage (%) Group S3 ratios and coverage (%)
15.57 15.37
7.76 7.83
16.93 16.74
30.06.18 30.09.18
S3
S2
S1
+0.07
-0.20
Δ
-0.19
56.0% 55.7%
42.0% 41.9%
30.06.18 30.09.18
Coverage
7.0% 6.9%
19.3% 19.6%
30.06.18 30.09.18
Ratio
Ratio
Coverage
23 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
1. Latest available data, including IFRS9 impact
2. Texas ratio=Net NPLs/TBV
Asset quality
NBG stands out in asset quality
Coverage
ratio
90dpd
ratio
Texas
ratio2
TBV (€b)
Unprovided
NPLs (€b)
84% 79%
69%68%
30%
33% 33%34%
NBG Piraeus Bank Alpha Bank Eurobank
Peer Group1: 90dpd & Coverage (Greece) Peer Group1: NPE & Coverage (Greece)
60%49%
45%54%
43%
54%
50%
44%
NBG Piraeus Bank Alpha Bank Eurobank
Coverage
ratio
NPE ratio
4.9 4.9
7.8
4.8
-2.3 -3.7
-5.6-4.6
NBG Piraeus Bank Alpha Bank Eurobank
0.46x 0.76x 0.72x 0.94x
Peer Group1: net NPLs/TBV (Group)
24 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Scheduled auctions (09.2018)*
* Source: Legal Professionals’ Insurance Fund. Auctions are planned 8 months in advance
Asset quality
NBG’s auctioning activity gathers pace: October number of auctions similar to these for
the entire 3Q
Auctions assets outcome (NBG) Assets auctioned by NBG (#, auctions held)
1,300
1,826
1,182
569
NBG Piraeus Bank Alpha Bank Eurobank
Held
Successful
Not successful
30
272
479
413
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 Oct'18
32%
29%
39%
YtD
Suspended
61%
month
quarter
25 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
NPE reduction channels (€ b)
NPE operational performance targets Bank NPE reduction targets (SSM perimeter) (€ b)
15.6
-4.6
-2.5
-2.0-0.5
6.0
FY18 Sales &
securitizations
Liquidations Formation,
recov & debt
fgv.
Write offs &
other
FY21
New NPE strategy commits to a faster pace of reduction over the next three years delivering a €10b drop by 2021
Asset quality
• New operational targets submitted to the SSM and pending
approval commit to a reduction of NPEs by €10b over the period
3Q18 to 4Q21
• Upon achieving these targets the NPE ratio will have been
reduced to a level below 20%
• The envisaged reduction will take place in part through closure
measures but also through organic means
15.2
14.0
12.711.9 11.6
11.4 11.2
8.8
6.1
3.3
6.4
-2.8 4
-1.4 4.6
-0.8-0.4
4.5
-0.2 4-0.3
-3.0
-3.3
-3.3
21.5
18.7
17.316.5
16.1 15.9 15.6
12.6
9.3
6.0
-15.5
NPLs
NPEs
NPE reduction target
FY18 target
revised from
€16.0b
FY19 target
revised from
€13.1b
Liquidity
5
27 Corporate Presentation – December 2018Liquidity
10.0 10.012.5 11.8
8.9 8.26.7
4.6 4.63.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.3 2.3
17.615.6 11.5
11.0
6.1 5.1
5.6
5.6 3.8
0.9
4.0
3.84.7
5.2
4.4
2.8
3.4 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.6
27.6
25.6
24 23.7
19
17.1 17
15.4
12.8
8.8
6.1 5.7 6.1 5.6 5.9
Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17
ECB
ELA
Interbank
Eurosystem and Interbank funding evolution (all amounts in €bn and cash equivalents)
Waiver
Reinstate
ment
Pillars
cancellation
Collateral
optimization
Interbank funding
-4,0bn Eurosystem
exposure
Jun-17Sep-15Jun-15 Jun-18
Total Eurosystem exposure reduced by c.€20b and ELA reduced by c.€18b, aided by the
divestment plan, interbank access, deleveraging and deposit inflows
Key drivers of liquidity improvements:
• Market access through interbank repos transactions & bond issuance (€0.85b)
• Divestments proceeds (€3.6b)
• Deposit inflows (€4.7b)
• Loan deleveraging (€6.8b)
Νov-18Mar-18Dec-17 Sept-18
Issuance of
covered
bond
Sep-17
28 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Group LCR
Deposit evolution by geography (€ b)
36.738.4 38.4
39.340.0
1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0
3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
-2.2
-4.8-3.6
0.3 0.8
-0.9
0.0 0.3 0.9
-0.8
0.20.5 1.7
0.00.9 0.8
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
1: Estimated based on latest available funding balances & yields
2: Peer average data excluding NBG, based on latest available data
Domestic deposits keep increasing enhancing NBG’s liquidity and cost of funding
advantages
YoY
+8.9%
+5.6%
Group
SEE &
Other
+9.1%
+1.9% qoq
38.6 40.3 40.3 41.2 42.0
Greece-€10.6 b +€4.7 b
41%
66%
86%
124%
4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
NSFR at
103%
NBG domestic deposit flows per quarter (€ b)
Liquidity
Capital
6
30 Corporate Presentation – December 2018Capital
CET1 ratio at 16.4%, excluding the additional cushion from the sale of BROM, NBG
Cyprus and Ethniki Insurance
CET 1 ratio
16.2% 16.4%
9.375%
13.0%
2Q18 3Q18 2018 SREP Requirement CET1 FL 3Q18
CET1:
€5.7b
CET1:
9.375%
OCR:
12.875%
CET1:
€5.8b
DTC:
€4.6b
RWAs
(€ bn)36.1 35.0 34.6
CET1:
€4.5b
Pro forma for the 1H18 PAT and the
Pro forma for the 9M18 PAT and the
SABA sale, CET1 stands at 16.6%
Albania sale (July), CET1 stands at
16.4% Pro forma for the 1H18 PAT and the
Pro forma for the 9M18 PAT and the
SABA sale, CET1 FL stands at 13.1%
Albania sale (July), CET1 stands at
16.4%
Macro
7
32 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Sources: EL.STAT., Bank of Greece & EU Commission
Macro
70
80
90
100
110
120
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
200
6:Q
4
200
7:Q
3
200
8:Q
2
200
9:Q
1
200
9:Q
4
201
0:Q
3
201
1:Q
2
201
2:Q
1
201
2:Q
4
201
3:Q
3
201
4:Q
2
201
5:Q
1
201
5:Q
4
201
6:Q
3
201
7:Q
2
201
8:Q
1
201
8:Q
4*
GDP growth (left axis)
EC Economic sentiment indicator (right axis)
y-o-y index
*Q4:2018: October 2018
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8:9
M
Tourist arrivals (excl. cruises, y-o-y)
Tourism receipts (excl. cruises, y-o-y)
y-o-y
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Sep
-14
Dec-
14
Mar-
15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec-
15
Mar-
16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec-
16
Mar-
17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec-
17
Mar-
18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Exports of goods (excl. oil & ships, 12m m.a., left axis)
Imports of goods (excl. oil & ships, 12m m.a., left axis)
Total services receipts (12m m.a., right axis)
y-o-y,
12m m.a.
y-o-y, 12m m.a.
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Jan-1
4
Apr-
14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Industrial (left axis) Services (left axis)
Retail (left axis) Consumer (right axis)
Index
Index
Economic activity on an upward trend, buoyed by exports and private consumption
Economic sentiment & real GDP growth
Trade of goods & services
Sectoral indicators of economic sentiment
Tourism: arrivals & revenue (excluding cruises)
33 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
H1
:2010
H2
:2010
H1
:2011
H2
:2011
H1
:2012
H2
:2012
H1
:2013
H2
:2013
H1
:2014
H2
:2014
H1
:2015
H2
:2015
H1
:2016
H2
:2016
H1
:2017
H2
:2017
*H1:2
01
8
*Q3:2
018
Office prices (Athens, y-o-y)
Retail prices (Athens, y-o-y)
House prices (total, y-o-y)
y-o-y
2018 Q3: +2.5% y-o-y
*2018: available data for house prices only
Sources: EL.STAT., Bank of Greece, AMECO & EU Commission
Macro
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
-90
-70
-50
-30
-10
Oct-
14
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-
15
Oct-
15
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-
16
Oct-
16
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-
17
Oct-
17
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-
18
Oct-
18
Major purchases at present
General economic situation over next 12 months
Major purchases over next 12 months
index
index Consumer Survey data
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
H1
:2018
Residential construction (nat. accounts, y-o-y)
Residential building permits (surface in m of new dwellings, y-o-y)
y-o-y
2
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
Private consumption (real, y-o-y)
Households' disposable income (real, y-o-y)
y-o-y
fore
cast
s
A pick-up in household spending on the back of improving labor market conditions and the fading
of the fiscal drag. Signs of revival in the real estate market, driven by increasing activity in high
demand areas
Private consumption & households’ disposable income
Real estate prices (y-o-y)
Households’ assessment of economic conditions
Residential construction activity & building permits
34 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Sources: EL.STAT., Ministry of Finance & Bloomberg
Macro
2
3
4
5
2
3
4
5
14-M
ay-1
8
28-M
ay-1
8
11-J
un
-18
25-J
un
-18
9-J
ul-
18
23-J
ul-
18
6-A
ug
-18
20-A
ug
-18
3-S
ep-1
8
17-S
ep
-18
1-O
ct-1
8
15-O
ct-1
8
29-O
ct-1
8
12-N
ov-
18
26-N
ov-
18
10yr Italian GB 5yr GGB 7yr GGB 10yr GGB
%
Italy
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2013* 2017* 2018*
% GDP
surplus
deficit
*excluding SMP &
ANFA revenue
-40
-20
0
20
40
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
200
0:Q
4
200
2:Q
1
200
3:Q
2
200
4:Q
3
200
5:Q
4
200
7:Q
1
200
8:Q
2
200
9:Q
3
201
0:Q
4
201
2:Q
1
201
3:Q
2
201
4:Q
3
201
5:Q
4
201
7:Q
1
201
8:Q
2
Gross fixed capital formation (y-o-y, right axis)
Gross operating surplus and mixed income (y-o-y, left axis)
y-o-y y-o-y
70
80
90
100
110
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-1
8
Feb
-18
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
May-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Aug
-18
Sep
-18
Oct-
18
No
v-18
ASE Index MSCI Emerging markets Index Italian (FTSE/MIB) Index
index
Jan. 2018=100
Fiscal targets will be met without the need for new measures in 2019, and corporate activity
accelerates; however, Greek assets remain vulnerable to heightened volatility internationally and
idiosyncratic factors
State budget primary balance (as % of GDP)
Greek & Italian Government bond yields
Investment & aggregate pre-tax profitability (y-o-y)
Stock market indices
Appendix
8
36 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Balance Sheet | Group
Group Balance Sheet & P&L
P&L | Group
€ m 3Q18 2Q18 1Q18 4Q17* 3Q17
Cash & Reserves 4 949 4 391 3 314 1 778 1 175
Interbank placements 1 913 1 972 1 915 1 736 1 861
Securities 8 598 8 068 8 130 9 221 11 996
Loans (Gross) 40 091 40 416 41 024 42 103 42 972
Provisions (9 950) (10 118) (10 439) (11 135) (10 868)
Goodwill & intangibles 146 136 131 132 122
Tangible assets 1 062 1 061 1 071 1 086 1 074
DTA 4 922 4 922 4 916 4 916 4 916
Other assets 6 650 6 967 6 495 6 570 6 499
Assets held for sale 4 772 5 039 4 996 4 996 6 096
Total assets 63 153 62 854 61 554 61 404 65 843
Interbank liabilities 6 968 7 554 7 531 7 341 9 850
Due to customers 42 012 41 228 40 311 40 265 38 568
Debt securities 1 333 1 228 1 232 1 197 461
Other liabilities 3 732 3 576 3 093 3 257 5 180
Hybrids - - - - -
Liabilities held for sale 3 387 3 517 3 535 3 511 4 356
Minorities 670 663 693 683 669
Equity 5 051 5 088 5 159 5 149 6 757
Total liabilities and equity 63 153 62 854 61 554 61 404 65 843
Appendix
€ m 3Q18 2Q18 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17
NII 274 276 289 324 334
Net fees 59 59 62 65 56
Core Income 333 335 351 389 390
Trading & other income 8 (16) 25 21 (39)
Income 342 319 376 410 351
Operating Expenses (245) (238) (231) (248) (237)
Core Pre-Provision Income 88 97 120 141 153
Pre-Provision Income 97 81 145 162 113
Provisions (81) (38) (120) (200) (155)
Operating Profit 16 44 25 (38) (42)
Other impairments 1 (11) 1 (19) 3
PBT 17 33 26 (57) (39)
Taxes (9) (12) (6) (4) (6)
PAT (cont. ops) 8 21 20 (60) (44)
PAT (discount. ops) 17 14 24 (200) 20
One-offs - (40) - - -
Minorities (8) (10) (10) (5) (10)
PAT 17 (15) 34 (265) (35)
*4Q17 figures are pro-froma for IFRS9 accounting standard
37 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Greece
Regional P&L: Greece, SEE & other
Appendix
SEE & Other
€ m 3Q18 2Q18 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17
NII 253 255 269 302 310
Net fees 54 54 57 60 51
Core Income 307 308 325 362 361
Trading & other income 9 (17) 22 20 (39)
Income 316 291 347 381 322
Operating Expenses (226) (220) (213) (228) (219)
Core Pre-Provision Income 81 88 112 134 142
Pre-Provision Income 90 72 134 153 103
Provisions (78) (35) (121) (189) (151)
Operating Profit 12 37 13 (36) (48)
Other impairments 1 (10) 1 (16) 4
PBT 13 27 14 (52) (44)
Taxes (8) (8) (4) (3) (4)
PAT (cont. ops) 5 18 10 (55) (49)
PAT (discount. ops) 12 15 25 17 18
One-offs - (40) - - -
Minorities (7) (9) (9) (4) (10)
PAT 10 (16) 26 (43) (40)
€ m 3Q18 2Q18 1Q18 4Q17 3Q17
NII 21 21 20 22 24
Net fees 6 6 6 6 6
Core Income 27 27 26 27 29
Trading & other income (1) 1 3 2 0
Income 26 28 29 29 29
Operating Expenses (19) (18) (18) (20) (19)
Core Pre-Provision Income 7 9 8 7 10
Pre-Provision Income 7 10 11 9 10
Provisions (3) (3) 1 (11) (4)
Operating Profit 4 7 12 (2) 6
Other impairments (0) (1) (0) (3) (0)
PBT 4 6 12 (5) 6
Taxes (1) (3) (1) (0) (1)
PAT (cont. ops) 2 3 11 (5) 4
.
38 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Evolution of RWAs (€ b)
Appendix
RWA Evolution | Asset-liability mix
Asset mix (€ b) Liability mix (€ b)
Other,
12.6
DTA, 4.9
SEE & Other net
loans, 1.7
Domestic net
loans; 28.4
EFSF/ESM bonds
& other; 0.3
Securities;
8.3
Interbank
placements; 1.9Cash; 4.9
63.2
Assets
Total equity and
minorities; 5.1
Other Liabil;
7.8
Debt
securities; 1.3
SEE & Other
deposits; 2.0
Time &
Other; 12.8
Current &
Sight; 8.4
Savings; 18.9
ECB, 2.3
Interbank liabil,
4.7
63.2
Liabilities
Domestic
deposits 39.3
61.8
-20.7
41.1
-3.8
37.3
-2.3
35.0
RWAs
2015
RWAs
2016
RWAs
2017
9M18
39 Corporate Presentation – December 2018Appendix
NBG Shareholder structure as at December 2018
HFSF 40.4%
Domestic private &
public legal entities 3.6%
Int'l Institutionals 47.4%
Domestic pension funds &
other 0.3%
Domestic retail
investors 8.3%
Domestic investors: 12.2%
40 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Name Abbreviation Definition
Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio CET1 RatioCET1 capital as defined by Regulation No 575/2013, with the application of the regulatory transitional
arrangements for IFRS 9 impact (H1.18) over RWAs
Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio Fully
LoadedCET1 CRD IV FL
CET1 capital as defined by Regulation No 575/2013, without the application of the regulatory transitional
arrangements for IFRS 9 impact (H1.18) over RWAs
Core Deposits - Consists of current, sight and other deposits, as well as savings accounts, and exclude repos and time deposits
Core Income CI Net Interest Income (“NII”) + Net fee and commission income
Core Operating Result (Profit / (Loss)) - Core income less operating expenses and provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges)
Core Operating Margin - Core operating profit / (loss) annualized over average net loans
Core Pre-Provision Income Core PPI Core Income less operating expenses
Core Pre-Provision Margin Core PPI margin Core PPI annualized over average net loans
Cost of Risk / Provisioning Rate CoR Credit provisions of the period annualized over average net loans
Cost-to-Core Income Ratio C:CI Operating expenses over core Income
Cost-to-Income Ratio C:I Operating expenses over total income
Equity/Book Value BV Equity attributable to NBG shareholders
Deposit Yields - Annualized interest expense on deposits over deposit balances
Forborne -Exposures for which forbearance measures have been extended according to EBA ITS technical standards on
Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures
Forborne Non-Performing Exposures FNPEsExposures with forbearance measures that meet the criteria to be considered as non performing according to EBA
ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures
Forborne Performing Exposures FPEs
Exposures with forbearance measures that do not meet the criteria to be considered as non performing according
to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures and forborne exposures under
probation period
Funding cost/Cost of funding -The blended cost of deposits, ECB refinancing, repo transactions, ELA funding (until late November 2017), as well
as covered bonds and securitization transactions
Gross Loans - Loans and advances to customers before allowance for impairment
Liquidity Coverage Ratio LCRThe LCR refers to the liquidity buffer on High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLAs) that a Financial Institution holds, in
order to withstand net liquidity outflows over a 30 calendar-day stresses period
Loan Yield - Annualized loan interest income over gross performing loan balances
Loans-to-Deposits Ratio L:D Net loans over total deposits, period end
Appendix
Definition of financial data & ratios used
41 Corporate Presentation – December 2018
Name Abbreviation Definition
Net Interest Margin NIM
NII annualized over average interest earning assets.The latter include all assets with interest earning potentials
and includes cash and balances with central banks, due from banks, financial assets at fair value through profit or
loss (excluding Equity securities and mutual funds units), loans and advances to customers and investment
securities (excluding equity securities and mutual funds units).
Net Stable Funding Ratio NSFR
The NSFR refers to the portion of liabilities and capital expected to be sustainable over the time horizon
considered by the NSFR over the amount of stable funding that must be allocated to the various assets, based on
their liquidity characteristics and residual maturities
Net Loans - Loans and advances to customers
Net Profit / (Loss) - Profit / (loss) for the period attributable to NBG equity shareholders
Non-Performing Exposures NPEs
Non-performing exposures are defined according to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-
Performing Exposures as exposures that satisfy either or both of the following criteria:
a) Material exposures which are more than 90 days past due
b) The debtor is assessed as unlikely to pay its credit obligations in full without realization of collateral, regardless
of the existence of any past due amount or of the number of days past due.
Non-Performing Exposures Coverage Ratio NPE coverage Stock of provisions (allowance for impairment for loans and advances to customers) over non-performing
exposures, excluding loans mandatorily classified as FVTPL,period end
Non-Performing Exposures Formation NPE formation Net increase/(decrease) of NPEs, before one-offs
Non-Performing Exposures Ratio NPE ratio Non-performing exposures over gross loans, period end
Non-Performing Loans NPLs Loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more
90 Days Past Due Coverage Ratio 90dpd coverage Stock of provisions over loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more excluding loans
mandatorily classified as FVTPL, period end
90 Days Past Due Formation 90dpd formationNet increase / (decrease) of loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more, before write-offs and
after restructurings
90 Days Past Due Ratio90dpd ratio/ NPL
ratio Loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more over gross loans, period end
Operating Expenses OpEx, costs
Personnel expenses + General, administrative and other operating expenses (“G&As”) + Depreciation and
amortisation on investment property, property & equipment and software & other intangible assets. For H1.18,
operating expenses excludes the VES cost of €40m.
Operating Profit / (Loss) - Total income less operating expenses and provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges)
Pre-Provision Income PPI Total income less operating expenses, before provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges)
PAT (Continuing Operations)Profit for the period from continuing operations. For H1.18, PAT (continuing operations) excludes the VES cost of
€40m.
Risk Weighted Assets RWAsAssets and off-balance-sheet exposures, weighted according to risk factors based on Regulation (EU) No
575/2013
Tangible Equity / Book Value TBV Common equity less goodwill & intangibles (goodwill, software and other intangible assets)
Total deposits - Due to customers
Appendix
Definition of financial data & ratios used
Contact details
Paul Mylonas
CEO
+30210 334 1521
pmylonas@nbg.gr
Greg Papagrigoris
Head of IR
+30210 334 2310
papagrigoris.gr@nbg.gr
This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of this presentation may be construed as
constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this
presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any
economic risks and benefits, as well as any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.
Ioannis Kyriakopoulos
Group CFO
+30210 334 3051
ikyriakopoulos@nbg.gr
Maria Kanellopoulou
Investor Relations
+30210 334 1537
mkanellopoulou@nbg.gr
ir@nbg.gr
Ilias Katsikalis
Investor Relations
+30210 334 1401
katsikalis.ilias@nbg.gr
ir@nbg.gr
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