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Dale A. Cox, Anne Wein, and Keith PorterSept. 30, 2009
NSF RESIN
• Fire / Debris Flow2007 and Station Fire Post Fire Coordination
• Earthquake / TsunamiShakeOut Earthquake Scenario and Tsunami Scenario
• Community Interface, Implementation, Tools and Training, Great Southern California ShakeOut
• Winter StormARkStorm Scenario
Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project
Earth Science
The Storm
Floods, Coastal Erosion,Landslides, Environmental
EngineeringStructures
Infra-structure
LifelinesFlood
Management
CasualtiesSocial Sciences Emergency
response
SocialImpacts
EconomicImpacts
POLICY
Building a Winter Storm ScenarioF
orecasting
The ARkStorm Team
• Atmospherics: Marty Ralph, NOAA Research/ESRL/PSD
• Atmospherics: Mike Dettinger, USGS Scripps
• Floods: Bill Croyle, DWR Flood Operations Center
• Floods: Justin Ferris, USGS California Water Science Center
• Landslides: Chris Wills, California Geological Survey
• Landslides: Jon Stock, USGS Earth Surfaces Processes Team
• Coastal: Patrick Barnard, USGS Coastal Marine Geology
• Coastal: Dan Hooover, USGS Coastal Marine Geology
• Physical Damages: Keith Porter, University of Colorado
• Environmental: Geoff Plumlee, USGS Minerals Program
• Environmental: Charles Alpers, USGS California Water Science Center
• Emergency Response: Mitch Miller, CalEMA
• Policy: Ken Topping, California State Polytechnic, San Luis Obispo
• Economics: Anne Wein, USGS Western Geographic Team
• Economics: Adam Rose, University of Southern California
The ShakeOut Scenario
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Road closures over time and % average trip time increase
3 days21%
12 days17%
13-49 days12%
50-140 days8%
San Pedro Port Operation
Cannot Separate Regional Goods
Port has1 weekStorage
•Ships wait•Few divert•Months to clear the back log
Cranes use power off thegrid
Commuting
Total commuters out of PS: 8084 850 commuters to unincorporated
-758 within Riverside county
Total commuters into PS: 18051 3888 commuters from unincorporated
Source: SCAG commute data based on 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package
9290 live and work in Palm SpringsMajority commute to and from Coachella Valley and RiversideCommuters to and from Kern and San Diego counties ignored
Electric power – revised estimates
Utility Service Outage and Restoration
High Impact County
Telecom: up to 4 days, but congestion and delaysPower: up to 1-4 months, Gas: up to 2 months, Water: up to 6 months
Power,Water Telecommunications Water,Power,Gas,Transportation
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 50 100 150 200
Telecom
Gas
Power
water
% c
ust
om
ers
wit
h s
erv
ice
Exposure: % employment located in MMI9+
EDD 2006 4th quarter data, Ben Sherrouse & David Hester (USGS)Exposure Analysis
ShakeOut Economic Costs and Impacts
• Damage to Structures and Contents ($112.7b)
• Fire is biggest cause
• Business Interruption ($96.2b)
• Water is biggest shock
• Additional Costs
• Relocation ($0.1b)
• Traffic Delay ($4.3b)
Disaster Recovery• Phases (restoration, temporary, permanent)• Tasks, subtasks, and interdependencies• Time (pressure to return to normalcy vs. betterment)
Day Week Month YearTasks 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 1 2 4 6 8 10 1 2 4 6 8 10Damage Assessment and Repair Damage Assessment Closure and Relocation Demolition Geologic Evaluation Repair PermittingInfrastructure and Public Services Recovery Infrastructure Repair Public Facilities RepairHousing and Social Recovery Emergency Shelter Temporary Housing Repairs and Rebuilding
Business and Economic Recovery
Temporary Business Sites Repairs and Rebuilding
Recovery Management and Financing
Planning Recovery Management Recovery Financing
(Sources: Williams Spangle and Associates 1991; Spangle Associates 1994)
Housing and Social Recoveryregion
SEVERE RESIDENTIALDAMAGE
Time line of ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario Recovery
ShakeOut Engagement of Stakeholders:
Did they listen, think, act? Level Type of Decision-making
Emergency Response
Resilience (effective post disaster)
Mitigation (effective pre disaster)
Federal GG GG
State GG GG
Region SW GG SW
County GG GG
Local GG PS SW GG SW
District PS PS
Industrial Sector SW GG SW GG SW
Business PS SW
Individual PS
SW: ShakeOut Scenario Workshops, GG: Golden Guardian, PS: Public ShakeOut
CAT 4 is > 40 cm (~16 inches) in 3 days
Category 4
Jan. 1969 Precipitation
Jan 25, 1969 Monthly
Jan. 1969 (doubled Jan. 25)
Feb. 1986 Precipitation
Sum Feb. 1986 and Jan. 1969
Economic Activity
Time
Projected activity
Economics of a Natural Disaster
‘Disaster’(a few yrs.)
‘Catastrophe’(decades)
Stabilized activity
Impacted economic activity
Cumulative Losses/costs$s
Physical damage replacement
Emergency Response
Recovery
Business interruption
MITIGATION
EMERGENCY RESPONSEPREPAREDNESS
RESILIENCE
RESULTS
Zones show estimated locations of severely damaged bridges (roadway closures ≈ 5-7 months)
Roadways crossing the fault will be severely damaged (roadway closures ≈ 2 months or more)
Landslide and liquefaction damage to pavement
Indio
Palm Springs
San Bernadino
Zone 3
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 4
Zone 5
RiversideCorona
San Juan Capistrano
Palmdale
Baldwin Park
Long Beach
San Andreas Fault
Bridge Damage Zones
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