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What is “motivated reasoning”?“2/3 or what we see is behind our eyes”
Perceiving our Social WorldJudging our Social WorldExplaining our Social WorldExpectations of our Social World
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 2
Perceiving Our Social WorldsOur assumptions and pre-judgments guide what we see, interpret and recallWe construct our own reality
PrimingActivating particular associations in memory
Example: Watching a scary movie at home may prime us to interpret furnace noises as a possible intruder
-”embodied cognition” –bodily sensations -> judgments
Perceiving and interpreting events Kulechov effect –what is it? Spontaneous trait transference -what is it?
Are you a gossiper? Or just gossip?
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 3
Perceiving Our Social Worlds
Belief PerseverancePersistence of one’s initial conceptions, as when the
basis for one’s belief is discredited but an explanation of why the belief might be true survives Explain why a risk taker makes a better firefighter.. The more we examine our explanations for our beliefs,
the stronger we belief in them What effect does this have on the juror’s initial impression
of guilt or innocence of the defendant? Explanations survive well! What’s the way to avoid this trap?
Explain the other side! (Lord, Lepper, & Preston, ‘84
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 4
Perceiving Our Social Worlds
Constructing Memories of Ourselves and Our WorldsElizabeth Loftus Misinformation effect
Incorporating “misinformation” into one’s memory of the event after witnessing an event and receiving misleading information about it
Reconstructing our past attitudes We remember the last event which overrides the previous
Reconstructing our past behavior Rosy retrospective Downward spiral (Holmberg found what?)
Underestimated earlier liking of partner
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Judging Our Social World
Intuitive Judgments Powers of intuition
Explicit Controlled processing
Reflective, deliberate, and conscious Automatic processing
Impulsive, effortless, and without our awareness implicit Schemas Emotional reactions
What is blindsight? Not being able to recognize the stick but being able to Determine if it’s vertical or horizontal
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 6
Judging Our Social WorldThe Limits of Intuition
Can subliminal messages make you eat popcorn?
Illusory Intuition To follow…
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 7
Judging Our Social World
Overconfidence Phenomenon
D Kahneman & Tversky Tendency to be more confident than correct – to
overestimate the accuracy of one’s beliefs Incompetence feeds overconfidence
Don’t let his happen on the exam!!!! How can you avoid it?
Are you ignorant of your ignorances? Planning fallacy Stockbroker overconfidence Political overconfidence
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Judging Our Social World
Confirmation BiasTendency to search for information that
confirms one’s preconceptions 2-4-6 what is the rule to generate another 3
number set? -Any three ascending numbers (P. C.Watson, ‘60)
Search for disconfirming information Helps explain why our self-images are so stable Self-verification
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Judging Our Social World
Remedies for Overconfidence Give prompt feedback to explain why
statement is incorrectFor planning fallacy, ask one to “unpack a
task” – break it down into estimated time requirements for each part
Get people to think of one good reason why their judgments might be wrong
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 10
Judging Our Social World
Heuristics: Mental ShortcutsRepresentativeness heuristic
Tendency to presume, sometimes despite contrary odds, that someone or something belongs to a particular group if resembling (representing) a typical member Is linda a bank teller or Bank teller and feminist activist?
Two conjunctive events can’t be more likely than either one alone (Kahneman & Tversky)
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 11
Judging Our Social World
Heuristics: Mental Shortcuts Availability heuristic
Cognitive rule that judges the likelihood of things in terms of their availability in memory The more easily we recall something the more likely it seems How does this affect a supervisor’s appraisal of an
employee’s performance? What can be done about it?
What percent of U.S. adults are homosexual? Why do people overestimate?
What impression do most people who saw “The Wire” think of the crime rate in Baltimore?
We underestimate high probability events and overestimate low probability events
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 12
Judging Our Social World
Counterfactual ThinkingImagining alternative scenarios and outcomes
that might have happened, but didn’t Mentally simulating what might have happened How should I award grades to make you all feel better? Should you change an answer on your test?
Underlies our feelings of luck Good luck… good outcome and we imagine a negative
outcome Bad luck…bad outcome and we imagine a good one
--”if I had only….” “shouda, wouda, couda”
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 13
Judging Our Social World
Illusory ThinkingOur search for order in random events
Illusory correlation Perception of a relationship where none exists, or
perception of a stronger relationship than actually exists We ignore unusual events that don’t confirm the
perceived relationship
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Judging Our Social World
Illusory ThinkingIllusion of control
Perception of uncontrollable events as subject to one’s control or as more controllable than they are Gambling Regression toward the average
Statistical tendency for extreme scores or extreme behavior to return toward one’s average
Lowest scoring students on the exam will likely do better
Exceptional performance tends to decline over the long run. What about stock market successes?
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Judging Our Social World
Moods and Judgments Good and bad moods
trigger memories of experiences associated with those moods
Moods color our interpretations of current experiences
Priming again!
A temporary good or bad mood strongly influenced people’s ratings of their videotaped behavior. Those in a bad mood
detected far fewer positive behaviors.
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 16
Explaining Our Social World
Attributing Causality: To the Person or the SituationMisattribution
Mistakenly attributing a behavior to the wrong sourceAttribution theory
Theory of how people explain others’ behavior Dispositional attributions
Are most workers lazy or conscientious? Is it something about them?
Situational attribution Are most workers lazy or conscientious? Is it something about the situation? What could that be?
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Explaining Our Social WorldInternal or external cause? Attribution theoriesInferring Traits
We often infer that other people’s actions are indicative of their intentions and dispositions
Commonsense Attributions – theory of correspondent inferencesConsistency – same behavior in similar
situation?Distinctiveness – only in this situation?Consensus –how do others behavior in this
situation?
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 18
Explaining Our Social World
Fundamental Attribution Error (Lee Ross)
Tendency for observers to underestimate situational influences and overestimate dispositional influences upon others’ behavior Example: Assuming questioning hosts on game
shows are more intelligent than the contestants
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Explaining Our Social World
Why Do We Make the Attribution Error?Perspective and situational awareness
Actor-observer perspectives Attribute good behavior to self / bad to external
causes Self-serving bias
Camera perspective bias Perspectives change with time
“that was the old me..” –someone else
©2013 McGraw-Hill Companies 20
Explaining Our Social World
Why Do We Make the Attribution Error?Cultural Differences
Dispositional attribution Situational attribution
“the clock made me do it!”
Where could that happen?
We follow the causal chain to find whatever suits our belief
How does this play out when you are approached by a panhandler?
Attributions and Reactions
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Expectations of Our Social World
Self-Fulfilling ProphecyBelief that leads to its
own fulfillment Experimenter bias
Teacher Expectations and Student Performance
Do students learn more if they expect the professor is good?
(Feldman & Prohaska ‘79)
Self-Fulfilling Prophecies
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Expectations of Our Social World
Self ful-filling prophecyDoes it happen at work?In marriagesIn friendship relationships?
Getting from Others What We ExpectBehavioral confirmation
Type of self-fulfilling prophecy whereby people’s social expectations lead them to behave in ways that cause others to confirm their expectations
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