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IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
Demand Forecast Modelling:Energy Consumption Prediction
Dorian Camil Hodorogea, Business Analytics Presales for SEE
IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
Agenda
IBM and ‘Predictive Analytics’Brief introduction to SPSSCase studyCustomer stories
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IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
Trends in Business Analytics and Opitmization
3Degree of Complexity
Com
petit
ive
Adv
anta
ge
What happened?Standard Reporting
How many, how often, where?Ad hoc reporting
What exactly is the problem?Query/drill down
Is action needed?Alerts
What will happen if … ? Simulation
What will happen next? Machine Learning
How can we achieve the best outcome? Optimization
How can we achieve the best outcome including the effects of variability? Stochastic Optimization
Analytics“Forward-looking”
Reporting“Backward-looking”
IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
Predictive Analytics in Energy: examples
What will be the energy demand tomorrow, next week, next year?
When will elements of my grid will need upgrading?
When is this asset most likely to fail and for what reason?
Which of my customers pose the highest revenue risk and what is the best preventative action to take?
Which customers are most likely to adopt a proposed change in tariff plan and what will be the resulting change in consumption patterns?
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IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
SPSS Modeler
…is a high-performance data mining and text analytics workbench
– Easy to Learn / Intuitive Visual InterfaceVisual approach - no programmingComprehensive range of data mining functionsFlexible deployment options
– Powerful Automated modelingAutomated data preparationMulti model creation & evaluationIntegrated analysis of text, web, & survey data
– Open and scalable architecureData mining within standard databases with SQL pushdown support Maximized use of infrastructure with multithreading, clustering and use of embedded algorithms (in database mining)Integration with IBM technologies such as IBM Cognos 8 Business Analytics and IBM InfoSphere Warehouse
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IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
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Case Study
IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
Input Data
Input EnergyOutput Energy
TemperatureHumidityNebulosityAtm. PressureWind speedWind direction
IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
SPSS Model
IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
Graphical Output
IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
Results
IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
Customer quotes …
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IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
EDF
“With around five million customer records, we have a vast pool of data that we can mine for insights to improve the efficiency of our business.”
“However, until we started working using Clementine from SPSS, our analysis was carried out on an ad hoc basis meaning that to a large extent that the wealth of information was not exploited.”
“SPSS’ technology means we can maximise the value of our data and use the resulting information to greatly improve our customer service and sales efforts. This enables us to gain better results without having to increase our resources.”
Clifford Budge, Customer Insight Manager at EDF Energy, UK
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IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
Central Iowa Power Cooperative (CIPCO)
Analyzes critical pricing and energy load data with SPSS
“Many large power companies have entire departments dedicated to analysis and forecasting. Our small group really values the efficiency that we get from instrumenting and integrating our data with IBM SPSS Statistics.”
Lisa SellEnergy Planning Manager
CIPCO
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IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
PowerGen
“SPSS has more than paid for itself in the short time we’ve had it and, as a result, we’ve started to use text mining tools from the company to look at customer records in call centers. In the analytics team at least, SPSS is the fundamental tool in our toolkit, and has more than proved its value.”
Stewart RobbinsCustomer Knowledge Manager
Powergen, UK
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IBM Global Energy & Utilities Industry
Yavor Mihov Bogdena Blagoevayavor@ndb.bg bogdena@ndb.bg
9, Vladimir Vazov Blvd., 7th floor1510 Sofia, Bulgaria
Phone/Fax: +359 2/868 79 85; +359 2/868 35 99;+359 2/962 14 48
Thank you!
Dorian Camil Hodorogeadorian.hodorogea@ro.ibm.com
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