Demographic Trends and the Education Pipeline: Implications for Educating Latinos for the Future of...

Demographic Trends and the Education Pipeline:

Implications for Educating Latinos for the Future of America

2

Demographics and the Education Landscape

• Population

• Immigration

• Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment

• High School Graduates

• Dropout Rates

• Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation

3

U.S. Population by Ethnicity

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

White 193,328 195,769 198,366

Black 31,590 34,413 36,325

Hispanic 27,107 35,648 42,687

Asian/Pacific Islander 8,846 10,827 12,826

American Indian/Alaskan 1,932 2,104 2,233

Two or more races 0 3,432 3,974

1995 2000 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Nu

mb

er (

000)

4

U.S. Population Growth by Ethnicity1995-2000 and 2000-2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

5.6%

19.7%18.5%

6.1% 5.0%

8.9%1.3%

31.5%

22.4%

8.9%7.4%

1.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

White Black Hispanic Asian/PacificIslander

Am. Indian/Alaskan

Total U.S.

1995-2000 2000-2005

5

Distribution of U.S. Population By Ethnicity 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

White, 66.9%

Black, 12.3%

Hispanic, 14.4%

Asian/ Pacific Islander, 4.3%

Two or more races, 1.3%

Am. Indian/ Alaskan, 0.8%

6

Top 10 States with Largest Hispanic Populations 2004

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2004Table 1: Annual estimate of the population by race alone and Hispanic or Latino origin for the U.S. and states: July 1, 2004

598,322

823,352

878,803

1,294,422

1,608,698

1,774,551

3,076,697

3,304,832

7,781,211

12,442,626

0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000

Georgia

New Mexico

Colorado

New Jersey

Arizona

Illinois

New York

Florida

Texas

California

7

Top 10 States Cumulative Percent of Total US Hispanic Population 2004

81.3%

79.8%

77.8%

75.7%

72.6%

68.7%

64.4%

56.9%

48.9%

30.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Georgia

New Mexico

Colorado

New Jersey

Arizona

Illinois

New York

Florida

Texas

California

Source: US Census Bureau 2004

8

Population by Age 2005 Percent of Total U.S. and Hispanic

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

24.8%

62.8%

12.4%

33.9%

60.8%

5.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Under 18 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over

Total Population Hispanic

9Source: U.S. Census Bureau

22.3%

19.6%

16.8% 17.3% 16.9%

9.1%

6.2%

14.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Under 5years

5 to 13years

14 to 17years

18 to 24years

25 to 44years

45 to 64years

65 yearsand over

Total

Population by Age 2005 Hispanics as Percent of Total U.S.

10

Immigration

• Population

• Immigration

• Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment

• High School Graduates

• Dropout Rates

• Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation

11

U.S. Immigration By Region of Last Residence

Source: 2004 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Europe 800,368 761,550 1,359,737

Asia 1,588,178 2,738,157 2,795,672

America*(Includes Canada, Mexico,Caribbean, Central and SouthAmerica)

1,982,735 3,615,225 4,486,806

Africa 80,779 176,893 354,939

1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000

12

U.S. Immigration By Region and Select Countries of Last Residence 2001-2004

15.6%

32.1%

5.70%

34.6%

7.0%

2.5%2.6%0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Europe Asia Africa Mexico,Central

America,South

America,Cuba

Canada Caribbean(Ex Cuba)

Other

Source: 2004 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics

13

U.S. Immigration Distribution by Region and Select Countries of Last Residence2001-2004

Source: 2004 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics

Asia, 32.1%

Canada, 2.6%

Mexico, 18.8%

Caribbean (ex Cuba),

7.0%

Cuba, 2.1%

Central America,

6.7%

South America,

7.0%

Africa, 5.7%Other, 2.5%

Europe, 15.6%

14

Hispanic Population in the U.S. By Origin 2004

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Mexican, 64.0%Puerto Rican,

9.6%

Central American, 7.2%

South American, 5.5%

Other Hispanic, 7.6%

Dominican, 2.6%

Cuban, 3.6%

15

The Education Landscape

• Population

• Immigration

• Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment

• High School Graduates

• Dropout Rates

• Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation

16

Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment by Ethnicity Percent of Total 1993, 2003

Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005.

66.1%

16.6%12.7%

58.7%

17.2% 18.5%3.6%

1.1%4.4%

1.2%0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

White Black Hispanic Asian Am. Indian/Alaskan Native

1993 2003

17

Public High School Graduates By Minority Groups

Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.

Am. Indian/ Alaskan Native,

28,80720,512 24,678

Asian, 139,615

99,948122,132

294,825

333,225

Black, 360,565

282,120

213,488

Hispanic,360,832

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1995 2000 2005

18

Public High School Graduates By Ethnicity 2005

Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.

360,565 360,832

1,780,838

139,61528,8070

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Am. Indian/Alaskan Native

Asian Black Hispanic White

19

20.3%22.2%

13.0%

32.1%

7.3%

14.3%

8.2%

27.9%

16.7%

0.2%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Am. Indian/Alaskan Native

Asian Black Hispanic White

1995-2000 2000-2005

Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.

Public High School Graduates Percent Increase by Ethnicity

20

Total U.S. Hispanic Public High School Graduates

Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.

213488

282,120

360,832

496,451

608,210

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

1995 2000 2005 Projected 2010 Projected 2015

21

Hispanics as Percent of Total Public High School Graduates

Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.

9.3%11.1%

13.5%

17.4%

21.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1995 2000 2005 Projected 2010 Projected 2015

22

Hispanic Public High School Graduates by Region

Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

New England 6,916 9,576 12,790 13,176

Middle States 29,844 34,187 45,784 48,276

Midwest 21,046 28,498 43,910 60,538

Southern 21,284 36,834 64,082 110,897

Southwestern 77,773 93,012 116,963 140,975

Western 125,261 159,026 212,923 234,349

2000 2005 Projected 2010 Projected 2015

23

Hispanics as Percent of Total Public High School Graduates

Source: WICHE. Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity 1988-2018.

States and Regions 2005 Projected 2015

New Mexico 46.1 % 54.2 %

California 36.3 % 45.7 %

Texas 35.3 % 44.9 %

Arizona 29.3 % 41.4 %

Nevada 19.9 % 38.5 %

Florida 19.8 % 32.3 %

24

Dropout Rates

• Population

• Immigration

• Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment

• High School Graduates

• Dropout Rates

• Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation

25

High School Dropout Rates By Ethnicity Percent of Dropouts Among 16-24 Year Olds

7.7%

12.6%

30.0%

11.4%11.8% 10.3%6.8%

23.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

White Black Hispanic Total

1994 2004

Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005

26

High School Dropouts By Gender Within Ethnicity 2004

Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005

8.0%

14.1%

31.6%

12.3%

7.5%

11.3%

28.1%

10.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

White Black Hispanic Total

Male Female

27

High School Dropouts By Immigration Status 2002

Source: The Condition of Education 2005.

41.4%

14.4%11.3%

5.3% 7.8%3.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

Born Outside the U.S. First Generation Second Generation

Hispanic Non Hispanic

28

Postsecondary Enrollment

• Population

• Immigration

• Public Elementary and Secondary Enrollment

• High School Graduates

• Dropout Rates

• Postsecondary Enrollment and Graduation

29

Postsecondary Enrollment in 2-Year and 4-Year Institutions by Control 2004

6,736.5 6,243.6

3,989.7

302.3

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

4-Year 2-Year

Public Private

Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005

Nu

mb

er (

000)

30

Hispanic Postsecondary Enrollment In 2-Year and 4-Year Institutions

358.2617.9

837.2255.1

424.2

843.9

972.4

216.60

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1980 1990 2000 2004

4 Year 2 Year

Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005

Nu

mb

er (

000)

31

Postsecondary Enrollment Percent of Total Enrollment by Ethnicity 2004

68.6%

11.7%7.8%

62.1%

13.8% 14.9% 4.7%0.9%

6.3%1.4%1.3%

6.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

White Black Hispanic Asian/ PacificIslander

Am. Indian/Alaskan Native

NonresidentAlien

% of 4-Year % of 2-Year

Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005

32

Postsecondary Enrollment by Ethnicity 2004

64.4%58.2%

46.3%

61.2%

53.3%

84.6%

35.6%41.8%

53.7%

38.8%

46.7%

15.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

White Black Hispanic Asian/ PacificIslander

Am. Indian/Alaskan Native

NonresidentAlien

4-Year 2 Year

`

Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005

33

Hispanic Postsecondary Enrollment Percent of Total

3.9%

5.7%

9.5%10.5%

5.6%

8.1%

14.2%14.9%

2.9%

4.2%

6.6%

7.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

1980 1990 2000 2004

Total 2-Year 4-Year

Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005

34

Postsecondary Enrollment of Public H.S. Graduates in 2-Year and 4-Year Institutions Percent of Total by Ethnicity 2004

13.2% 12.8%

62.1%

6.3%11.7%

7.8%

67.8%

1.0%5.1%

1.3%6.6%

13.8% 14.9%

68.6%

0.9%0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

American Indian Asian Black Hispanic White

Public High School Graduates 2-Year Enrollment 4-Year Enrollment

Source: Digest of Education Statistics 2005

35

Postsecondary Graduation Rates 2-Year Institutions

31.0%26.6%

32.6% 33.9%35.7%

All Students, 32.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Am. Indian/ NativeAlaskan

Asian Black Hispanic White

Source: NCES 2006: Enrollment in Postsecondary institutions Fall 2004; Graduation rates 1998 & 2001 cohorts; and Financial statistics, fiscal year 2004.

36

Postsecondary Graduation Rates 4-Year Institutions

36.5%39.7%

45.8%

58.2%64.7%

All Students, 55.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Am. Indian/ NativeAlaskan

Asian Black Hispanic White

Source: NCES 2006: Enrollment in Postsecondary institutions Fall 2004; Graduation rates 1998 & 2001 cohorts; and Financial statistics, fiscal year 2004.

37

Summary

• Latinos are a large and growing segment of the U.S. population.

• Immigration is a factor.

• Latinos have an even greater presence in the school-age population.

• The number of Latino high school graduates are expected to increase through 2015 in all Regions.

• Drop out rates are a concern, particularly among recent immigrants.

• Hispanic enrollment in postsecondary education has increased, but Hispanics remain underrepresented in higher education.

• The majority of Latinos attend 2-Year institutions.