Development & Renewal Slides - 31st March

FUNDING AND DELIVERING DEVELOPMENT AND RENEWAL

Retail led regeneration

31st March 2011

Date MonthDate Month

Retail led Regeneration in LondonRetail Trends

Stuart Morley, Head of Research

31 March 2011

gva.co.uk

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Factors affecting Vitality and Viability of Town Centres

• Economic Trends• Planning & Development Trends• Retailer Trends• Property Market Trends• Effect on Town Centres of new

Development

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Economic Trends

• Demographic trends– Population growth, geographical differences

and ageing of population• Income and expenditure trends

– Strong growth over recent decades, but weaker outlook

• Internet– When will growth level off and what effects

will it have?• Mobility

– Huge past rise in car ownership, but are we nearing saturation?

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Population growth

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

North Eas

t

North W

est

Yorkshire

and The H

umber

East M

idlands

West M

idlands

East o

f Englan

d

London

South East

South Wes

tUK

England

Wales

Scotla

nd

Northern

Irelan

d

1998-2008 2008-2018

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Expenditure per head growth

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1961-1971 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2007 2010-2020

Ann

ual a

vera

ge g

row

th

Convenience Goods Comparison Goods

forecast (Experian)

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Online annual spend per head

560606

653 691745

794850

905977

1058

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Ann

ual S

pend

per

Hea

d (£

)

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Car ownership

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

%

0 cars 1 car 2 cars 3+ cars

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Planning and development trends

• Planning policy– PPG6, PPS6 and PPS4– New national planning guidance– Localism and planning– Agenda for growth– competition– Return of EZs

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Planning and development trends

• Floor space stock changes– Town centre and edge/out-of-centre

development– Town centre development by size of town– Mixed use schemes in town centres

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Town Centre and edge/out-of-centre development

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Percentage of newly built retail floorspace inATCAs (without 300m buffer)Percentage of newly built retail floorspace inATCAs (with 300m buffer)Trendline: Percentage of newly built retailfloorspace in ATCAs (without 300m buffer)Trendline: Percentage of newly built retailfloorspace in ATCAs (with 300m buffer)

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Town Centre Retail Development (ex London)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009

(sq

m)

0 - 50,000 50,000-75,000 75,000-100,000 100,000 -250,000 250,000+

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Town centre development activity

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Retailer Trends

• Consolidation of retail activity– Decrease in number of units– Increase in size of units

• Consolidation into larger town centres

• Increase in range of goods sold– Larger unit size required– Food stores

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Change in size of stores

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Property market trends

• Out performance by retail warehousing– Retail warehousing compared to

town centres– Stand alone retail warehouse units– Retail parks– Fashion parks

• Rental growth by different size of town centre

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Effect of new development on town centres

• Could all retail expenditure growth be accommodated in town centres?

• How can vehicle growth be accommodated in town centres?

• How can all leisure and office development be accommodated in town centres?

• Problems for historic centres• Effect of out-of-centre development on town

centres• Effect of new town centre development

on other town centres, particularly in London

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

London’s Major Retail Centres & newdevelopment

gva.co.ukShort presentation title here / November 2010Retail Trends 31 March 2011

Recommendations

• Improve town centre environment• Unlock stalled developments• Limit out-of-centre development• Plan proactively for new

development + Action• Improve town centre management

on a day-to-day basis• Support for local businesses• Maximise accessibility

FUNDING AND DELIVERING DEVELOPMENT AND RENEWAL

Retail led regeneration

31st March 2011

Brent Cross CricklewoodA New Town Centre

Future of LondonRetail Led Regeneration in Barnet - Brent Cross Cricklewood

Stewart Murray – Director of Planning, Housing and RegenerationTony Westbrook – Principal Project Manager

Barnet: Locational context

London’s Growth Corridors

Growth areas in Barnet

The opportunity - about the area

• 250 Acres• Key gateway location• Bordered by heavy infrastructure• Very few connections• Retail units and parking• Low density industry and housing• Poorly landscaped open spaces• Few community facilities• Needs major investment

The vision

• 7,500 homes, 27,000 jobs• 14 million sq. ft. total (1.3m sq m)• 4 million sq. ft. office district• Transformed BX Shopping Centre• Strong connection across the A406• Exceptional parks and open spaces• New mainline train station• New Brent Cross bus station • 3 new schools, new health facilities• Sports and leisure centre • New bridges and road junctions• Naturalised River Brent

Contributing to London’s future

• Long neglected part of London• London Plan addressing the suburbs• Supportive strategic and local planning policy• Massive public transport investment including highway improvements• New train station & infrastructure• Parks and community facilities• Staged development over 20 years

Conclusions

• Scheme addresses long term problems affecting a very wide area

• New Town Centre – homes, shops, jobs, transport, community, environment

• An ambitious and comprehensive approach that will transform this important area

Town Centre Business Forums

• To enable businesses to take responsibility for marketing and promotion of their town centres

• To provide a conduit for local businesses to inform policy development

• To help local businesses work together

• Currently established in Edgware, Chipping Barnet and Finchley Church End

Our next event in this series is on 10 May on delivering localism through the planning system.

Visit www.futureoflondon.org.uk for more information.