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Dirk Helbing (ETH Zurich)!dhelbing@ethz.ch!
!
The Digital Society: A Society
of Trust?!
Follow on!
http://www.photoeverywhere.co.uk/west/usa/california/sunset_oil_rigDSC_4701.jpg!
“Data is the new oil” – Clive Humby!!
2000-2002 2007-2009
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2000-2002 2007-2009
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Spreading of Scientific Innovations!
Spreading of Ideas / Memes!
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graphene
entanglement
mgb
2
nanotubes
carbon nanotubes
quark
neutrino
bose�einstein
quantum hall
black
c
60
hubbard model
quantum wells
graphite
reactions
photoemission
black hole
tricritical
kondo
superconducting
fission
mev
diffuse scattering
Spreading of Culture!
M. Schich … D. Helbing, Science (2014)!
Dirk Brockmann and DH, Science (2013)!
Spreading of Diseases!
Spreading of International Tension!
Joint work of Thomas Chadefaux and Dirk Helbing!
Cascading Effects During Financial Crises!
Video by Frank Schweitzer et al.!
fmRi to see diseases!
http://www.noticiacanaria.com/curiosas/2014/8/1/radiografias-extranas-impactantes-mundo-1730.html!
See What Is Wrong!
http://stemsaveblog.com/category/debilitating-diseases/bone-loss-debilitating-diseases/!
Fix the System Where It Is Broken!
Map the World!
Map our Globe in 3D!
See also Open Streetmap - the free Wiki world map!
Thanks to Marc Pollefeys!
!CHRIS ANDERSON’S DREAM: !
!The end of theory: the data deluge makes the scientific
method obsolete. !!
Wired Magazine 16(7), 2008!
A. Pentland et al.!
Can We Know Everything?!
Can We Build A Crystal Ball?!
Could Society Be Run Like A Giant Machine?!
“Data is the new oil” – Clive Humby!!… but models are the new gold!!… and participation means social capital!!
Exponential growth of computing. 20th through 21st century.!Coutesy of Ray Kurzweil and Kurzweil Technologies, Inc. License: CC-BY 1.0.!
The Digital Revolution Is on Its Way!
Intelligent Machines will be our tools, !
!
Intelligent Machines will be our tools, !
then our teammates,!
Intelligent Machines will be our tools, !
then our teammates, !then our coaches, !
!
Intelligent Machines will be our tools, !
then our teammates, !then our coaches, !then our bosses? !
!
Can We Trust the Outcome?!
The Magic Formula?!
more !data!
= more knowledge!
= more power!
= more success!
Spurious !Correlations!
GORILLAMOVIE
Pattern Recognition!Is More Difficult that One Might Think!
Classification Errors Can Easily Happen!
Pseudo-objectivity is a serious problem!
Estimation Error over Number of Parameters!
Complex Systems: Limits of Predictability!
The Cities with Highest Quality of Life Are Not in the Leading IT Nations!
Pluralistic modeling and collective intelligence!
Image Source: http://medialniproroci.blogspot.ch/2013/04/sharing-is-new-shoppingand-working.html!!!http://byronmorrisonmills.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/collective-intelligence.jpg!
Bring Great Ideas and Brilliant Minds Together!
We need to build suitable
platforms to collect, share and integrate
ideas!
Online Deliberation
Platforms!
Diversity Wins, Not the Best!
!Wisdom of crowds requires independent exploration and then integration!
Top-down and majority decisions obstruct collective intelligence!!
Image by ALMA (ESO/NAOJ/NRAO)/L. Calçada (ESO) on commons.wikimedia.org, license CC BY 3.0!
The Dish – CSIRO radio telescope in Parkes NSW, Photo: John Sarkissian!
MULTI-PERSPECTIVE APPROACH!!PLURALISTIC MODELING!
Multiple Perspectives Needed !to Grasp Full Complexity!
Virtual Reality!
Value Pluralism!• Privacy!• Autonomy!• Equity!• Justice!• Dignity!• Happiness!• Wellbeing!• Safety!• Security!
After Jeroen van den Hoven!
• Sustainability!• Health!• Friendship !• Solidarity!• Peace!• Usability!• Resilience!• Efficiency!• Flexibility!!
Goals must be balanced (politically negotiated).!Otherwise, the approach is oversimplified, inadequate.!
nervousnet@ethz.ch!
Each Smartphone Contains >10 Sensors!!Today‘s Universal Tool!
Because We Can Connect Smartphones !to Build a Global Measurement System!
Photo: apple iOS and android phones!
We Need Systems We Can Trust!
An Information System Controlled by You!!!
Personal Data Store!
Areas of application include !(1) the real-time measurement
of the world around us,!(2) greater awareness of
opportunities and risks,!(3) building digital democracy,!(4) the creation of the economy
4.0!(5) the support of self-
organizing systems.!
What Nervousnet Can Do for Us!
Greater awareness to take better decisions!
Map Resources and Who Uses Them!
Could help to avoid shortages and recessions!
Happiness!
GDP!
Gross Domestic Product per capita in 2006, world map.!Bamse, CC-BY-SA 3.0. Wikimedia Commons.!
Satisfaction with Life Index Map - Map was published in White, A. (2007). A Global Projection !of Subjective Well-being: A Challenge To Positive Psychology? Psychtalk 56, 17-20.!
Create New Compasses for Decision-Makers!
Measure social capital:!Reputation, trust, solidarity, compliance, …!
Happiness!
Real-time !measurements !
to quantify externalities!
Mapping Noise and other Externalities!
Visualization of Acceleration Data!
Detect Earthquakes and Warn Our Friends!
A CERN for Society?!
A Pluralistic, Participatory Search, Measurement and Simulation Engine!
inform better, rather than manipulate
more!
Qualification System
Qualification !
Multi-Dimensional Reputation Systems to Incentivize Responsible Use!
Optimal Incentives: “Minorities Report” Strategy Can Outperform Yes/No-
Democracies and Markets!
R. Mann and DH: !Minorities Report: !Optimal Incentives!for Collective !Intelligence, !Preprint (2016)!
Image Source: http://demosite.in/applicationdevelopment.php!
Smart Technologies + Smart People = Smarter Businesses and Societies!
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