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7/27/2019 Economic Impact of Nanotechnology
1/18
2004
Jo l t to the Sys tem :The Transformative Impact
of Nanotechnology
Mike Treder
Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology
Troy, New York November 16, 2004
7/27/2019 Economic Impact of Nanotechnology
2/18
2004
Industrial Revolutions
FirstRevolution
(17801840)
Based inUni ted King dom
Steam Engine
Textile Industry
Mechanical Engineering
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3/18
2004
Industrial Revolutions
SecondRevolution
(18401900)
Based inEurope
Eng land, France, Germany
Railways
Steel Industry
7/27/2019 Economic Impact of Nanotechnology
4/18
2004
Industrial Revolutions
ThirdRevolution(19001950)
Based inUnited States
Electric Engine
Heavy Chemicals
Automobiles
Consumer Durables
7/27/2019 Economic Impact of Nanotechnology
5/18
2004
Industrial Revolutions
FourthRevolution
(1950Present)
Based inPacif ic B asin
California, Japan
Synthetics
Organic Chemicals (Oil)
Computers
7/27/2019 Economic Impact of Nanotechnology
6/18
2004
FifthRevolution
(2010? ??)
Based in Developing World ?
China? Ind ia? Brazi l?
Nanotechnology
Molecular Manufacturing
The NextIndustrial Revolution
7/27/2019 Economic Impact of Nanotechnology
7/182004
Time
Accelerated Impacts
Industrial Revolutions
Molecular
Manufacturing
Revolution
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The ability to build
anything we can design,
by manipulating
molecules under direct
computer control, will
be ajolt to the system.
Jolt to the System
Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler
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The ability to build
anything we can design,
by manipulating
molecules under direct
computer control, will
be ajolt to the system.
Jolt to the System
Image by John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios
A transformative, disruptive, discontinuousjolt to
ecological, economic, political, and social systems
on a local, national, and global scale.
7/27/2019 Economic Impact of Nanotechnology
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The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal theIndustrial Revolutions of the last two centuries but
with all that change compressed intojust a few years.
Transformative Impact
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The Next Revolution
Not just new products a new means o f produc t ion
Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing
systems exponential prol i ferat ion
Vastly accelerated product improvement cheap
rapid prototyp in g
Affects all industries and economic sectors
general-pu rpo se techno logy
Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital
cost
econom ic d iscont inu i ty Portable, desktop-size factories socia l disrupt ion
Impacts will cross borders global transformat ion
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Inside aNanofactory
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Benefits +Risks
An automated, self-contained factory could provide...
Lifesaving medical robots orUntraceable weapons of
mass destruction
Networked computers for
everyone in the worldor
Networked cameras so
governments can watch
our every move
Trillions of dollars of
abundanceor
A vicious scramble to
own everything
Rapid invention of
wondrous productsor
Weapons development fast enough
to destabilize any arms race
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Dangers
Economic disruption from an abundance of cheap products
Economic oppression from artificially inflated prices
Personal risk from criminal or terrorist use
Constant intrusive surveillance
Oppression from abusive restrictions Social disruption from new products/lifestyles
Unstable arms race leading to war
Collective environmental damage from unregulated products
Black market in molecular manufacturing (increases other risks)
Competing nanotechnology programs (increases other risks)
. . . and many more
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What is Needed Now
Awarenessof the issues
Technical researchPolicy research
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7/27/2019 Economic Impact of Nanotechnology
17/182004
www.Wise-Nano.org
A collaborative project to study the facts and
implications of advanced nanotechnology a website
for researchers worldwide to work together, helping tobuild an understanding of the technologies, their
effects, and what to do about them.
7/27/2019 Economic Impact of Nanotechnology
18/18 2004
www.CRNano.org
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