Economy—Energy—Climate: Using the Linkages. The Basics Strong Economy Depends on Energy and...

EconomyEconomy——EnergyEnergy——ClimateClimate::Using the LinkagesUsing the Linkages

The Basics

• Strong Economy Depends on Energy and Stable Climate

• Energy Policy that Ignores Climate Protection Will Fail

• Climate Policy that Ignores Energy Needs Will Fail

Exploiting Linkages

• Protecting the climate IS an economic growth strategy

• Protecting the climate IS an energy security strategy

• Smart energy policy IS a path to economic and climate security

Speedy Timeline

• House E&C Comm. by end of May• Pass House by August recess• Senate: multi-committee process

with reports by July 4 recess• Pass Senate in September• Conference in October (November)• Signature by COP 15

ACES WILL BOOST OUR ECONOMY

• According to NEMS-NRDC, ACES will drive an additional investment of $306 billion in low- or no-emissions electricity generation technologies between 2012 and 2030, which includes $103 billion redirected from conventional fossil-fuel generation. ACES will also drive $32 billion of additional investment to increase the efficiency of residential and commercial equipment.

• Clean energy investments create more jobs for Americans of all skill and education levels than comparable investments in fossil-fuel energy sources

–The Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), and independent unit of the University of Massachusetts, found that clean energy investments

Create 3.2 times as many jobs as fossil fuel investments

Create 5.5 times as many jobs for workers with few educational credentials or work experience, and 75% of those jobs provide opportunities for advancement

– Recent UC Berkeley analysis finds ACES would produce 0.9-1.9 million additional jobs in 2020

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ACES IS AFFORDABLE

$4,747

$5,475$5,148

$4,785$5,039

$52 $70 $67 $92 $70$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

EPA: IGEM EPA: ADAGE EIA: NEMS NRDC: NEMS-NRDC Average

2007

$

INCREASE IN MEDIAN INCOME UNDER ACES AVERAGE COST OF ACES

INCREASE IN AVERAGE 2012-2030 MEDIAN ANNUAL INCOME PER HOUSEHOLD FROM 2009 LEVELSAND

AVERAGE ANNUAL COST PER HOUSEHOLD VS. BAU OVER 2012-2030

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Comparing EPA, EIA, and NEMS-NRDC results, the estimates for average annual household cost of ACES range from $52 to $92, which translates to $0.14 to $0.25 per household per day. Meanwhile, median annual income levels per household over 2012-2030 under ACES are expected to be, on average, $4,700 to $5,500 higher than 2009 levels.

7

ACES WILL MAKE AMERICA MORE SECURE (1/2)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

EPA: IGEM EPA: ADAGE EIA: NEMS NRDC: NEMS-NRDC NRDC: MARKAL

Mill

ion

MtC

O2

2020 2030

CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURED FROM ELECTRICITY GENERATION TECHNOLOGIES WITH CCS IN 2020 AND 2030

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ACES WILL MAKE AMERICA MORE SECURE (2/2)

At today’s oil prices, the cumulative value of these reduced oil imports through 2050 will be more than $2 trillion, significantly boosting the benefit of ACES to the U.S. economy.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

per

Day

IMPORTED CRUDE OIL IMPORTED REFINED PRODUCTS DOMESTIC CRUDE OIL CO2-EOR

DOMESTIC AND IMPORTED CRUDE OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS CONSUMPTIION FROM 2010 TO 2050, IN MARKAL

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Some Important Climate Players

• Senate—– “3 B’s”: Boxer; Bingaman; Baucus– Other Committees: Ag; Banking; For.

Relations; Appropriations– Others: Reid; Corker; McConnell; Lugar;

Specter

• House—– Waxman; Markey; Pelosi; Barton;

Shimkus

Some Important NEW Players

• Kerry-Graham-Lieberman effort• Cantwell-Collins• Murkowski

Architecture Issues

• Auction• Investments v. Rebates• Offsets• Trading Limits• Safety Valve• Targets• Clean Air Act and State Authority

THE PATH TO 60 VOTES

Yes 31

Probably Yes 13

Fence Sitters 21

Sen. Warner, VA

Sen. Whitehouse, RI

Sen. McCaskill, MO

TOTAL: 65

+

+

Vote Count

Bipartisan Strategy

THE PATH TO 60 VOTES

TOTAL: 65

Democrats

31 Yes

11 Probably Yes

15 Fence Sitters

57

Republicans

2 Probably Yes

6 Fence Sitters

8

1 Dem, 1 Republican

1 or 2 Dems

1 Republican

Fence Sitters

2

2

2

2

THE PATH TO 60 VOTES

Issues in PlayTHE PATH TO 60 VOTES

COST

COMPETITIVENESSAGRICULTURECOAL

OIL & NUCLEAR

COST

Vote Count: 50

• Direct utilities to use allowances for public benefit

• Protect the poor through a rebate program

• Implement energy efficiency measures to lower monthly electricity bills

THE PATH TO 60 VOTES

COMPETITVENESS

Vote Count: 54• Direct allowances to energy-intensive, trade-

exposed manufacturers

• Provide assistance to make manufacturing more energy efficient

• Impose a boarder adjustment if other countries fail to take action

THE PATH TO 60 VOTES

COALVote Count: 61

• Keep coal in the system by offering incentives for carbon capture and storage

• Ensure costs do not increase excessively for coal dependent utilities

THE PATH TO 60 VOTES

The Power of CoalConradDorgan

Johnson

Nelson, B.

Salazar

Bingaman

ByrdRockefeller

BrownBayh

LevinStabenow

McCaskill

PryorLincoln

Webb

Coal and the SenateWest Virginia

Indiana

Wyoming

Utah

North Dakota

Kentucky

New Mexico

Ohio

Missouri

Iowa

Delaware

Colorado

Kansas

Wisconsin

Georgia

Tennessee

Minnesota

Michigan

Nebraska

Maryland

Texas

Pennsylvania

Illinois

Alabama

North Carolina

Montana

Virginia

Arizona

South Dakota

Mississippi

AGRICULTUREVote Count: 63

• Offset system will generate revenue for farmers

• New opportunities to profit from renewable energy sources like solar, wind and biomass energy

• Promote energy efficiency measures to benefit farmers

THE PATH TO 60 VOTES

OIL & NUCLEAR

Vote Count: 65

THE PATH TO 60 VOTES

• Worker training• Loan guarantees• Direct subsidies for new plants?• OCS, revenue sharing

Diverse Voices RepresentedMember Organizations:

Thank You

David HawkinsNRDC

dhawkins@nrdc.org