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ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET UPDATE
16TH ANNUAL ENERGY
FORECASTING MEETING / EFG
AUSTIN, TX
APRIL 26-28, 2018
MIKE RUSSO, ITRON, INC.
MONTHLY U.S. EV SALES
• 2016 Growth – 37%
• 2017 Growth – 26%
Source: “Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard”, Inside EVs.
MONTHLY U.S. EV MARKET SHARE
Sources: “Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard”, Inside EVs. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Motor Vehicle
Unit Retail Sales
TOP SELLING VEHICLES IN 2016
Source: USA Today, Kelly Blue Book
POPULAR MODELS
» Approximately 200,000 vehicles were sold in 2017. Tesla accounted for
25% of all vehicle sales.
Source: “Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard”, Inside EVs.
TOP 10 MODELS
» Costs shown are starting base MSRP. But costs can vary significantly.
Tesla S ranges from $73,000-$134,000.
» Annual kWh is based on 12,000 miles driven
» Range shown is for electric drive only
Sources: www.fueleconomy.gov, manufacturer websites, Inside EVs.
Model
Units Sold
in 2017 Cost
Fuel Economy
(kWh/100 mi.) Range* Annual kWh
Tesla S 27,060 73,000$ 32 218 3,840
Chevy Bolt 23,297 36,620$ 28 238 3,360
Tesla X 21,315 100,150$ 36 200 4,320
Toyota Prius Prime 20,943 27,100$ 25 25 1,500
Chevy Volt 20,349 33,220$ 31 53 1,860
Nissan LEAF 11,230 30,680$ 30 107 3,600
Ford Fusion 9,632 33,120$ 35 22 2,100
Ford C-Max 8,140 27,120$ 35 20 2,100
BMW i3 6,276 44,450$ 29 114 3,480
Fiat 500e 5,380 31,800$ 30 84 3,600
TOP 10 MODELS
» Costs shown are starting base MSRP. But costs can vary significantly.
Tesla S ranges from $73,000-$134,000.
» Annual kWh is based on 12,000 miles driven
» Range shown is for electric drive only
Sources: www.fueleconomy.gov, manufacturer websites, Inside EVs.
Model
Units Sold
in 2017 Cost
Fuel Economy
(kWh/100 mi.) Range* Annual kWh
Tesla S 27,060 73,000$ 32 218 3,840
Chevy Bolt 23,297 36,620$ 28 238 3,360
Tesla X 21,315 100,150$ 36 200 4,320
Toyota Prius Prime 20,943 27,100$ 25 25 1,500
Chevy Volt 20,349 33,220$ 31 53 1,860
Nissan LEAF 11,230 30,680$ 30 107 3,600
Ford Fusion 9,632 33,120$ 35 22 2,100
Ford C-Max 8,140 27,120$ 35 20 2,100
BMW i3 6,276 44,450$ 29 114 3,480
Fiat 500e 5,380 31,800$ 30 84 3,600
TESLA MODEL 3
» With optional extended range battery ($9,000) and auto pilot ($5,000),
cost approaches $50,000.
» Currently a 12-18 month wait for vehicle delivery.
» Advertised base price of
$35,000; before federal and
state incentives
» Range of 220 -310 miles
FEDERAL CREDIT
» The tax credit is $2,500, for vehicles with at least 5 kWh of capacity, plus
an additional $417 for each kWh in excess of 5 kWh. The maximum
incentive is $7,500.
Model Credit
Tesla S 7,500$
Chevy Bolt 7,500$
Tesla X 7,500$
Toyota Prius Prime 4,502$
Chevy Volt 7,500$
Nissan LEAF 7,500$
Ford Fusion 4,007$
Ford C-Max 4,007$
BMW i3 7,500$
Fiat 500e 7,500$
EXPIRATION OF FEDERAL CREDIT
» Credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period
beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in
which 200,000 vehicles have been sold.
Example
200,000th Tesla
sold August 5th
2018
Phase out starts
beginning of the second
calendar quarter
Phase out further
reduced beginning of
the fourth calendar
quarter
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
25% of Credit
2018 2019
Full Credit Amount 50% of Credit
WHICH MANUFACTURE WILL HIT 200,000
FIRST?
» General Motors and Tesla will likely hit the 200,000 mark at some point in
2018.
» 2018 YTD includes sales through February.
Source: “Monthly Plug-in Sales Scorecard”, Inside EVs.
Maker Prior to 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD Ttl
GM 7,671 23,461 23,633 21,260 19,046 28,887 43,893 4,327 172,178
Tesla 1,900 2,650 17,650 16,689 25,416 47,119 50,147 7,860 169,431
Nissan 9,674 9,819 22,610 30,200 17,269 14,006 11,230 1,045 115,853
Toyota 0 12,942 13,117 14,448 4,191 2,474 20,936 3,546 71,654
Ford 500 3,054 14,981 21,947 18,923 24,796 19,589 1,953 105,743
Units Sold in the U.S. Since 2009
EV SALES PROJECTIONS
12
» 2018 EIA Annual Energy Outlook
• EVs account for 7% of new vehicles sales in 2025 and 12% by 2040
ELECTRIC AND PLUG-IN HYBRID
13
» 2018 EIA Annual Energy Outlook
REVISION OF PAST EIA EV FORECASTS
14
» EIA Annual Energy Outlook
• Slowly becoming a believer
OTHER EV FORECASTS
15
Sources: 2018 EIA Annual Energy Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance: Electric Vehicle
Outlook 2017, Energy Policy Simulator.
16
GLOBAL EV OUTLOOK
» Electric car sales, market share, and BEV and PHEV sales
shares in selected countries: 2010-2016
Source: “Global EV Outlook 2017”, International Energy Agency, 2017.
17
GLOBAL EV OUTLOOK
» Market share of electric cars in leading EV countries: 2016
Source: “Global EV Outlook 2017”, International Energy Agency, 2017.
FACTORS THAT IMPACT EV ADOPTION
» Electric rates.
» Pairing with PV system
» Charging Infrastructure
» State, Local, and Utility Incentives
» Social Perception
BATTERY COST PROJECTIONS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
EIA BATTERY COST PROJECTIONS
Source: EIA AEO 2018
POLICY DRIVES ADOPTION: VERMONT
» Vermont Utilities, in Conjunction with Nissan, offered:
• $10,000 dealer rebate on every Leaf (Nissan funded)
• $500-$1,200 Utility rebate
• Free Level 2 chargers w/ unlimited off-peak charging at flat rate
• $7,500 Federal Incentive
» Out-of-pocket costs were as low as $11,300 for a new Leaf
» As a result over 150 Nissan Leafs were sold in Vermont last summer:
this represented 3.2% of all U.S. Leaf sales in a market with only 0.2% of
the U.S. population.
» Burlington VT dealership was #2 in Leaf sales in the nation, second only
to San Francisco.
DOES AN EV MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE?
TEXAS
» $0.12 per kWh
» $2.29 per gallon of gasoline
29,000 miles or
2.4 years
» $7,500 federal EV credit
» $2,500 state EV Credit
DOES AN EV MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE?
MASSACHUSETTS
» $0.24 per kWh
» $2.45 per gallon of gasoline
99,000 miles or
8.3 years
» $7,500 federal EV credit
» $2,500 state EV Credit
WHAT ABOUT MAINTENANCE COSTS
» EVs are regularly advertised as having lower maintenance costs than their
gas counterparts
• Nissan Leaf maintenance schedule calls for annual brake fluid
changes; approximately $125.
• Tesla’s first year scheduled maintenance cost is $475-$625,
depending on the model. 3 year maintenance plans can be
purchased at a discount.
» Gasoline vehicle maintenance costs can increase over time with
procedures such as transmission fluid changes, brake pads (EVs brake
components tend to last longer due to regenerative braking), and spark
plug replacement.
CHARGING PROFILE
Source: “Joint IOU Electric Vehicle Load Research Report”, filed with the Public Utilities
Commission of the State of California, Dec 2016.
» EV charging could have significant impact on peak particularly where
solar is shifting the peak to the late afternoon and early evening.
IMPLICATIONS ON SYSTEM PROFILE
» New England utility with projected EV sales of 40% of total vehicle sales
» No EV incentive charging rate results in a 8% peak increase and moves
the peak 3 hours into the evening.
» Incentive rate would result in only a 2% peak increase.
USEFUL RESOURCES
» U.S. Dept. of Energy: Fuel Economy
• www.fueleconomy.gov
• List all current EV and PHEV on sale; prices, driving range, and
federal incentives
» U.S. Dept. of Energy: Alternative Fuels Data Center
• www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric.html
• List of federal and state laws and incentives
» Inside EVs
• www.insideEVs.com
• National monthly sales data by make and model
» Plugin Cars
• www.plugincars.com/
• Buyers guide and vehicle reviews
THANK YOU
www.itron.com
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS
Mike Russo
Michael.russo@itron.com
617.423.7660 X4
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