Emissions Data and Trends from Developed and Developing Countries ______________

Emissions Data and Trends from Developed and Developing Countries

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Pre COP Workshop for LDC Negotiators

29-30 November 2007Bali, Indonesia

Ilona Millar FIELD

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Where does the Data come from?– UNFCCC

• National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (FCCC/SBI/2007/30)• National Communications from Annex I Parties

(FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6 & add.1)• National communications from Non-Annex I Parties

(FCCC/SBI/2005/18/Add.2)

– IPCC– IEA– WRI

• CAIT• Earth Trends• Navigating the Numbers

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Emission profiles vary greatly between countries

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Annex I Emissions 1990 - 2005

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FCCC/SBI/2007/30

6FCCC/SBI/2007/30

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FCCC/SBI/2007/30

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Annex I Trends• Excluding LULUCF

– Total AI -2.8%– EIT -35.2%– Non-EIT +11%

• Including LULUCF– Total AI -4.6%– EIT -36.2%– Non-EIT +10%

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Annex I Trends including LULUCF

• 1990-1995– Fell 6.9%

• 1995-2000– Rose 1.3%

• 2000-2004– Rose 2.4%

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FCCC/SBI/2007/30

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Changes in AI emissions 1990-2005

Ex LULUCF• Australia +25.6• Canada +25.3• USA +16.3• Japan +6.9• EU -1.5• UK -14• Germany -18

Incl LULUCF• Australia +4.9• Canada +54.2• USA +18.4• Japan +7.4• EU -4• UK -15.4• Germany -19.5

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FCCC/SBI/2007/30

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FCCC/SBI/2007/30

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Non-Annex I Emissions as reported based on best available data in 2005

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FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

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Non-AI emissionsGg tonnes CO2e

• Botswana 9,291 -29,441

• Congo 1,374 -68,485

• China 4,057,306 3,649,827

• India 1,214,248 1,228,540

• Indonesia 323,262 487,380

17FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

18FCCC/SBI/2005/18.Add.2

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Analysis of Trends

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Figure 2.3. Aggregate Contributions of Major GHG Emitting Countries

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Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods

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24Source: WRI Cait

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What are the trends?

• Global growth in emissions

• Growth rates highest among developing countries

• Contributing factors – GDP/Capita, Population, Energy intensity, Fuel mix

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Future Projections

27FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6

28Figure 3.1 WRI. Projected Emissions of GHGs in 2025

% Percent change from 2000

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(Stabilization Scenarios from WGIII, 4 May 2007, Figure SPM 5)

Concentration of greenhouse gases (ppm CO2-e)

Global mean temperature increase (°C)

% change in global CO2 emissions 2000-2050

I 445 – 490 2.0 – 2.4 -85 to -50II 490 – 535 2.4 – 2.8 -60 to -30III 535 – 590 2.8 – 3.2 -30 to +5IV 590 – 710 3.2 – 4.0 +10 to +60V 710 – 855 4.0 – 4.9 +25 to +85VI 855 – 1130 4.9 – 6.1 +90 to +140

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