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Industrial Processes and Product Use
Estimation of Greenhouse Gases Emissions in Brazil (1970-2015)
David Tsai
IEE-USP/RCGI Workshop January 30th, 2017
8% 10% 11% 13% 13%18% 20% 21% 23% 23% 26% 24%
5% 6%6% 5%
5% 5%
10%12%
14% 15% 14%
21%22% 23%
23% 22%23%
22%
78%73%
70%67% 67%
54%49% 47%
44%47%
43%46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pa
tic
ipa
tio
no
n n
atio
na
l G
HG
em
issi
on
Year
Profile of National GHG emissions by sector (IPCC)
(Total)
LUC
Energy
Agriculture
IPPU
Waste
2004: Brazilian emissions peaks (3,8 GtCO2e*)
*IPCC AR-2
2004-2009Deforestation rates
falling fast
2009-2015Emissions ≈ stable
between 0.8 and 1.0 GtCO2e
+0,2%
-2,6%
+5,0%
+1,2%
+4,7%
+1,7%
Annual
variation
2009-2015
IPCC
Sectors
Energy
454 Mt
(82%)
IPPU
99 Mt
(18%)
Fugitive emissions
23 Mt (4%)
Fuel
combustion
431 Mt
(78%)
Industrial
processes
84 Mt (15%)
Product use 15 Mt (3%)
Energy and IPPU emissions in 2015 (MtCO2e)
Flare, venting, leaks, processing in refineries and platforms, coal mining
methane emissions, etc
Conversion of chemical energy into heat, movement and light
Chemical and physical transformation of matter
HFCs, SF6 in electrical equipment and burning of lubricants
Energy
454 Mt
(82%)
IPPU
99 Mt
(18%)
Fugitive emissions
23 Mt (4%)
Fuel
combustion
431 Mt
(78%)
Industrial
processes
84 Mt (15%)
Product use 15 Mt (3%)
Coal 29 Mt (5%)
Natural gas
82 Mt (15%)
O&G fugitives 12 Mt (2%)
Oil products
314 Mt
(57%)
gasoline C and diesel (CH4 e N2O) 6 Mt (1%)
Biomass 12 Mt (2%)
Industry
171 Mt
(31%)
Power
generation
78 Mt (14%)
Fuel production
54 Mt (10%)
27 Mt (5%)
19 Mt (4%)
Households, commercial n’ public
Agriculture
Transport
204 Mt
(37%)
Coal, carbonated rocks. oil
products, natural gas, etc
Energy and IPPU emissions in 2015 (MtCO2e)
BR Energy emissions x World Energy emissions (2014)
9%
11%
18%
21%
23%
33%
42%
45%
36%
28%
24%
16%
24%
14%
19%
27%
7%
9%
10%
18%
10%
12%
28%
8%
48%
52%
49%
45%
42%
41%
10%
20%
China
Índia
Japão
Alemanha
Mundo
EUA
França
Brasil
Transportes Indústria Outros Setores Geração de Eletricidade e Calor
Source: IEA, 2016; (Indústria inclui consumo de energia na indústria, produção de combustíveis e consumo de combustíveis na produção de metais)
Oil
70%Gas
16%
Coal
14%
Brazil
Oil
34%
Gas
20%Coal
46%
World
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Fu
elc
on
sum
ptio
n(M
toe
)
Year
Diesel
(mineral)
Gasoline A
Ethanol
Jet kerosene
Natural gasBiodiesel
Fuel consumption in transportation
Fuel oil
Δ 2014-2015
-5,7%
-9,4%
+18,6%
+18,4%
Brazilian Transport GHG emissions breakdownPrimary
energy
Secondary
energyMode Vehicles Function
OIL
194 Mt
(95%)
DIESEL
(MINERAL)113 Mt
(55%)
GASOLINE
67 Mt
(33%)
ROAD
187 Mt
(92%)
RAIL
3 Mt (2%)
WATER(*)
3 Mt (2%)
AIR
11 Mt (5%)
FUEL OIL
2 Mt (1%)
NATURAL GAS
4 Mt (2%)
GASOLINE C AND
DIESEL (CH4 e N2O)
5 Mt (3%)
TRUCKS
85 Mt (42%)
BUSES20 Mt (10%)
LIGHT COMMERCIAL
13 Mt (7%)
CARS
63 Mt (31%)
MOTORCYCLES6 Mt (3%)
AIRPLANES
LOCOMOTIVES
SHIPS
FREIGHT
105 Mt
(51%)
PASSENGERS
99 Mt
(49%)
Total: 204 MtCO2e**
Fonte de dados: Balanço Energético Nacional (MME) e Inventário Nacional de Emissões Atmosféricas por Veículos Automotores Rodoviários (MMA)
(*) Uma parcela do uso de combustíveis em embarcações decorre do transporte de passageiros. Devido a ausência de informações fundamentadas e
a sua pouca importância no conjunto das emissões, optou-se por alocar as emissões deste modal no transporte de cargas
(**) Incluídas as emissões do consumo de álcool hidratado no transporte rodoviário que correspondem a 1 Mt e as emissões do consumo de gasolina de
aviação no transporte aéreo que correspondem a 0,1 Mt.
JET KEROSENE
11 Mt (5%)
Freight transportation
Key questions: How to reduce Brazil’s dependancy on road diesel?
Can rail, and water transport be better explored?
81%
43% 46% 43%
25%
11%
25%11%
4%
17%
8%
32%
43%53%
58%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rússia EUA Canadá Austrália Brasil
Part
icip
ação
dos
mod
ais
no t
rans
port
e de
car
gas
Modal rodoviário
Modal hidroviário
Modal ferroviário
Mode share in selected countries
Road
USA Canada Australia Brazil
Water
Rail
Chart data source: Ministério das Cidades and Ministério dos Transportes (2013)
Russia
Modal share and freight type in BrazilTotal 2015: ~ 2.4 Gtku
Sources of information: PNLI (EPL, 2016)
Transporte aéreo de cargas representa 0,03% (0,6 bilhões de tku) da movimentação.
Road
(64,9%)
Rail
(15%)
Coastline shipping
(10,5%)
Inland shipping (5,3%)
Pipelines (4,4%)
Modal share and freight type in BrazilTotal 2015: ~ 2.4 Gtku
Sources of information: PNLI (EPL, 2016)
Transporte aéreo de cargas representa 0,03% (0,6 bilhões de tku) da movimentação.
Road
(64,9%)
Rail
(15%)
Coastline shipping
(10,5%)
Inland shipping (5,3%)
Pipelines (4,4%)
General cargo
(54,2%)
Non-agriculture bulk solids
(24,3%)
Bulk liquids
(14,9%)
Agriculture bulk solids
(4,4%)
428
360
143
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Po
we
r g
en
era
tio
n (
TWh
)
Year
1%
93%
4%
2%
1990
3%62%
23%12%
2015
Power supply by energy source
Total
Hydro
Fossil fuels
Wind, biomass and solar
Nuclear
2001: Blackout
2011-2014•••••
Unfavorable
meteorological conditions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Po
we
r g
en
era
tio
n (
TWh
)
Ano
Power generation from fossil fuels
Natural gas (-2,0%)
Oil products (-16,9%)
Coal (+2,6%)
Challenges for power generation
Map data source: Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Recursos Hídricos
• Hydraulic potential
located in high demand
and rugged terrain
areas is depleted;
• Remaining hydraulic
potential is located in
the Amazon Basin:
Due to terrain
characteristics, low
storaging capacity
Undesired social
and environmental
impacts
Challenges for power generation
Map data source: Sistema Nacional de Informações sobre Recursos Hídricos
• Brazil has potential for
solar, wind and biomass
power generation
• Main challenges to be
addressed:
Stability of the
Power System
Costs and
consumer pricing
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(MtC
O2e
)
Ano
Major emitting industrial activities
Metal industry
Fuel production
Cement production
Chemical industry
• Information and data disclosure
• Transparency of assumptions
• Ease of access for understanding information and
methodology
• Opening to dialogue
Lessons learned
Recommended