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Updated: April 17, 2018
ENERGY SLIDESHOWFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas
ENERGY PRICES
www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Brent & WTI Crude OilWTI & Brent Crude Oil
NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 4/13/18.
Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate.
SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Brent (Apr 13 = $71.24) WTI (Apr 13 = $66.02)Dollars per barrel
95% confidence
bands for WTI
Henry Hub Natural GasHenry Hub & Marcellus Natural Gas
NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 4/13/18.
Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of
Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices.
SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Henry Hub (Apr 13 = $2.71) Marcellus (Apr 13 = $2.40)Dollars per million
British thermal units
95% confidence bands
for Henry Hub
Retail Gasoline & Diesel
NOTES: Prices are for 4/16/18. PADDs are “Petroleum Administration for
Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Retail price per gallon
PADD Gasoline Diesel
1 $2.69 $3.12
1A $2.69 $3.15
1B $2.80 $3.28
1C $2.61 $3.00
2 $2.60 $3.02
3 $2.50 $2.91
4 $2.73 $3.14
5 $3.37 $3.58
U.S. $2.75 $3.10
Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
GLOBAL PETROLEUM
www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas
World Oil Supply & Demand
NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
World Oil Supply & Demand
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
92
94
96
98
100
102
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1
2018
99.6
98.8
Million barrels per day
World
production
World
consumption
World Oil Supply & Demand
NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Implied Change in World Oil Stocks
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Million barrels per day
OPEC Oil Production & Rig Count
NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OPEC Crude Oil Production
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
33.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Million barrels per day
Mar
32.2
OECD Commercial Inventories
NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OECD Commercial Oil Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Million barrels
2010-2014 average
Mar
2784
OECD Commercial Inventories
NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
World Oil Production Outages
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Million barrels per day
OPEC
Non-OPEC
Mar
1.22
0.58
NATIONAL OUTLOOK
www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas
U.S. Oil Production & Rig CountU.S. Oil & Gas Production
NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017
U.S. crude oil production
Million barrels per day
U.S. natural gas production
Billion cubic feet per day
U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count
NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 4/10/18. Rig count
series shows the last weekly count each month.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
U.S. crude oil production
Million barrels per day
U.S. oil rig count
Number of active rigs
Jan
9.96
Mar
797
Gasoline Demand
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted.
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. Oil & Gas Employment
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Number of jobs (thousands)
Support activities
for oil and gas operations Oil and gas
extraction
Feb
255
Mar
150
Crude Oil & Product Inventories
NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/11/18.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Commercial Crude Oil Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
300
350
400
450
500
550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015Million barrels
Jan
420
Feb
426Mar
425
Gasoline Demand
NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/11/18.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Natural Gas Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015Trillion cubic feet
Feb
1.6
Jan
2.1
Mar
1.4
Gasoline DemandGasoline Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/11/18.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015Million barrels
Jan
248
Feb
251
Mar
238
Gasoline DemandDistillate Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas NOTE: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 4/11/18.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015Million barrels
Feb
137
Jan
141
Mar
129
Gasoline Demand
NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly
traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide.
SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.
Vehicle Miles Traveled
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
240
245
250
255
260
265
270
275
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Billion miles traveled
Jan
268
Gasoline Demand
NOTES: Square marks based on weekly data as of 4/11/18.
Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Consumption
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2010-2014 range 2010-2014 average 2018 2017 2016 2015Million barrels per day
Jan
8.74
Feb
9.06
Mar
9.34
REGIONAL ACTIVITY
www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Texas Oil Production & Rig Count
NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Texas Oil & Gas Production
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017
Texas crude oil production
Million barrels per day
Texas natural gas production
Billion cubic feet per day
Texas Oil Production & Rig Count
NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
Texas Oil Production & Rig Count
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Texas crude oil production
Million barrels per day
Texas rig count
Number of active rigs
Jan
3.89
Mar
496
Texas Mining Sector EmploymentTexas Oil & Gas Employment
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dallas Fed.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Number of jobs (thousands)
Support activities
for mining
Oil and gas
extraction
Feb
148.62
77.64
12-Month Total Rig Change by County
*Change in total rigs, from 3/31/2017 to 3/30/2018.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
3-Month Total Rig Change by County
*Change in total rigs, from 12/29/2017 to 3/30/2018.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Crude Oil Production by State
NOTE: Data shown are monthly, for January 2018.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Natural Gas Production by State
NOTES: Data shown are monthly, for January 2018.
Series depicted is marketed natural gas production.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Crude Oil Production by Region
NOTE: Series depict estimates after January 2018.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Million barrels per day
Permian
Basin
Eagle
Ford
Bakken
Niobrara
Other
areas
Appalachia
Permian Basin
Haynesville
Other areas
Eagle Ford
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Billion cubic feet per day
Natural Gas Production by Region
NOTE: Series depict estimates after January 2018.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Energy Survey Business Activity
NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity
since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease.
Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values
reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter.
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm’s level of business
activity increased, not changed or decreased?
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-42.1
13.826.7
40.1 41.8 37.327.3
38.1 40.7
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018
Diffusion index
Breakeven Prices for New Wells
NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.
65 E&P firms answered this question from March 14-22, 2018.
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What
WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Permian
(Midland)Permian
(Delaware)
Bakken
Permian
(Other)SCOOP/
STACK
Other U.S.
(Shale)
Other U.S.
(Non-shale)
$47 $49 $50$52 $53 $54 $55
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Dollars per barrel
15 13 4 18 7 7 34
Number of responses
Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells
Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What
WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells?
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasNOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.
66 E&P firms answered this question from March 14-22, 2018.
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Permian
(Midland) SCOOP/
STACK
Permian
(Delaware) Other U.S.
(Shale)
Permian
(Other)Bakken
Other U.S.
(Non-shale)
$25 $27$30 $32
$37 $38$40
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
15 6 13 7 18 4 35Number of responses
Dollars per barrel
Additional Resources
• Energy Indicators
– A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector
• Quarterly Energy Update
– Concise analysis of the latest major developments and key changes facing global oil and gas markets
• Dallas Fed Energy Survey
– A quarterly assessment of energy activity as reported by 150 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District
• Energy in the 11th District
– Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin
• Other energy articles and research
Click here to contact us for general information or other inquiries.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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