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Environmental Economics
Hendrik Wolff
hgwolff@u.washington.edu
What is EE?
• Brief Outline of “some” Environmental Problems– Population Growth– Fossil Fuel burning and Carbon Dioxide– Acid Rain and Sulfur Dioxide– Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
State of the Environment
• Population Growth puts pressure on environmental resources
Ice Core Measures -- Vostoc in the Antarctica.
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7
8
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2012: atmospheric CO2 = 394ppm
http://www.350.org/
10
Present and Future Mean Temperature
11San Francisco
Average Daily Temperature Distribution
RED:2090-2100Projected
A2 scenario from CCSM 3.0 in IPCC (2007)
BLUE:1960-90 Normals
12
Boston
San Francisco
Houston
Average Daily Temperature Distribution
RED:2090-2100Projected
A2 scenario from CCSM 3.0 in IPCC (2007)
BLUE:1960-90 Normals
County Temperature Data
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365
1
365
1
0 65
0 65
HDD = Annual Heating Degree Days = max ,
CDD = Annual Cooling Degree Days = max ,
dd
dd
T
T
County Temperature Data
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365
1
365
1
0 65
0 65
HDD = Annual Heating Degree Days = max ,
CDD = Annual Cooling Degree Days = max ,
dd
dd
T
T
Drawback:
• 1 day of 115 F & 4 days of 65 F 50 CDD
• 5 days of 75 F 50 CDD
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0.0
5.1
.15
.2D
ensi
ty
0 2 4 6 8 10Present HDD (1000s) in 2000
0.0
5.1
.15
.2.2
5D
ensi
ty
0 2 4 6 8 10Future HDD (1000s) in 2100
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8 10Present CDD (1000s) in 2000
0.1
.2.3
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8 10Future CDD (1000s) in 2100
Gaussian kernel, bandwidth = .2. 10000+ HDDs (mainly Alaska) put in last bin
Population-Weighted Change in Heating and Cooling Degree Days: 2000-2100
20
0.0
5.1
.15
.2D
ensi
ty
0 2 4 6 8 10Present HDD (1000s) in 2000
0.0
5.1
.15
.2.2
5D
ensi
ty
0 2 4 6 8 10Future HDD (1000s) in 2100
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8 10Present CDD (1000s) in 2000
0.1
.2.3
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8 10Future CDD (1000s) in 2100
Gaussian kernel, bandwidth = .2. 10000+ HDDs (mainly Alaska) put in last bin
Population-Weighted Change in Heating and Cooling Degree Days: 2000-2100
21
0.0
5.1
.15
.2D
ensi
ty
0 2 4 6 8 10Present HDD (1000s) in 2000
0.0
5.1
.15
.2.2
5D
ensi
ty
0 2 4 6 8 10Future HDD (1000s) in 2100
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8 10Present CDD (1000s) in 2000
0.1
.2.3
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8 10Future CDD (1000s) in 2100
Gaussian kernel, bandwidth = .2. 10000+ HDDs (mainly Alaska) put in last bin
Population-Weighted Change in Heating and Cooling Degree Days: 2000-2100
22
0.0
5.1
.15
.2D
ensi
ty
0 2 4 6 8 10Present HDD (1000s) in 2000
0.0
5.1
.15
.2.2
5D
ensi
ty
0 2 4 6 8 10Future HDD (1000s) in 2100
0.1
.2.3
.4.5
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8 10Present CDD (1000s) in 2000
0.1
.2.3
Den
sity
0 2 4 6 8 10Future CDD (1000s) in 2100
Gaussian kernel, bandwidth = .2. 10000+ HDDs (mainly Alaska) put in last bin
Population-Weighted Change in Heating and Cooling Degree Days: 2000-2100
116% Increase
33% Decrease
Differential trends in Carbon Dioxide (CO2) versus Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
Differential trends in Carbon Dioxide (CO2) versus Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
SO2: First Big “Success” Story of Impact of “Environmental Economics” on Policy
• SO2 Acid Rain Dying forests
Cap and Trade of SO2 emissions
• By late eighties: U.S. emits 20 million tons SO2/year
• 1990 C & T established with goal to cut emissions by 50% over 10 years
Cap and Trade of SO2 emissions
• By late eighties: U.S. emits 20 million tons SO2/year
• 1990 C & T established with goal to cut emissions by 50% over 10 years
• Figure of “price of sulfur” = marginal abatement cost of SO2 control dropped from USD 500 to USD65
Ozone Depletion in Stratosphere
• Ozone in Stratosphere necessary to decrease ultra violet radiation to hit planet (UV-Bskin cancer)
• Refrigerants (i.e. CFCs) destroy O3 molecules• World observes steady magnitude of ozone hole in
stratosphere since 1980• 1986: Montreal Protocol bans (most) CFCs• Ozone hole slowly starting now to decrease BUT global
warming cools stratosphere, difficult to predict...• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUfVMogIdr8
Ozone Depletion in Stratosphere
• Ozone in Stratosphere necessary to decrease ultra violet radiation to hit planet (UV-Bskin cancer)
• Refrigerants (i.e. CFCs) destroy O3 molecules• World observes steady magnitude of ozone hole in
stratosphere since 1980• 1986: Montreal Protocol bans (most) CFCs• Ozone hole slowly starting now to decrease BUT global
warming cools stratosphere, difficult to predict...• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUfVMogIdr8
Which Pollutants Increase/Decrease?
• Increase– CO2– Illegal oceanic waste dumping– Nuclear contamination– Particulate Matter in Urban Areas (Developing
Countries)• Decrease
– SO2 in U.S. – Local Water Pollution Homework
Which Pollutants Increase/Decrease?
• Increase– CO2– Illegal oceanic waste dumping– Nuclear contamination– Particulate Matter in Urban Areas (Developing
Countries)• Decrease
– SO2 in U.S. – CFCs worldwide– Local Water Pollution Homework
Which Pollutants Increase/Decrease?
• Increase– CO2– Illegal oceanic waste dumping– Nuclear contamination– Particulate Matter in Urban Areas (Developing
Countries)• Decrease
– SO2 in U.S. – CFCs worldwide– Local Water Pollution Homework
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