View
3
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
1
EuroEuropean Opportunities in an Expanding Global Lobster Market
John SacktonPublisher SeafoodNewsBergen, NorwayMarch 3, 2016
2
World Lobster Species
Homarus (NorthAmerica)
Panulirus spp (Brazil, Australia)
Jasus spp(S. Africa, Australia
Homarus (Europe)
3
North American Lobster Landings Double Since 2008
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
ME
TR
IC T
ON
S
US / Canadian Landings Set New Record in 2015
US CANADA
Source: US and Canadian Gov’t data; 2015 Industry estimate
4
Growth has been in North American Homarus Lobster
American Lobster increased from 38% to 50% of Global Supply
2008 2013
Source: FAO
5
In US Total Supply Increased 76% Since 2008
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2,014 2015
US Lobster Supply (Live Weight)
Live Imports Frozen Processed Landings
6
China Official Imports of Homarus increased nearly 1000% since 2008
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
10000000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
KGChina Imports of Live Homarus Vs Live Spiny Lobster
Homarus Live Spiny Live
7
European Imports have remained flat
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
European Lobster Imports (EU-28)
Rock/Spiny Fzn Homarus Fzn Rock Live Homarus Live Norway Prepared
Source: Eurostat
8
Only the UK has Seen an Increase
Source: Eurostat
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
ITALY SPAIN FRANCE BELGIUM (and LUXBG -> 1998)
UNITED KINGDOM Others
Imports by Major Country
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Traditional SouthernEuropean Markets -Spain, Italy, France-Are all Declining
9
Live Demand Drives Price
10
Yield is key to understanding Lobster pricing and why live lobster
demand sets prices
10
Live Lobster 100% Brine Frozen Raw 103-105% Whole Cooked 86-90% Tail only 20-24% Claw, Knuckle, Leg Meat 9% to 13%
11
Processors very sensitive to raw material price changes
• A 20 cent change in dock price is equal to
– $1.43 to $2.00 change in meat cost
– $.83 to $1.00 change in fzn tail price
– A $0.22 to $0.24 cent change in whole cooked price
Processors Can Only Buy Lobsters During Times ofSeasonally Low Pricing
12
Lobster Pricing
13
Lobster meat is becoming more valuable
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Us Dollar Values: Live Exports to China, EU vs Meat Imports to US
Live Exports Meat Imports
14
US Market Absorbed New Supply
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
140000000
160000000
180000000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (Est)
Pou
nds
US Lobster Price and Total Supply
Volume Price
15
Retail Sells Live Lobster more Than Frozen
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 52 Wk Nov
Po
un
ds S
old
Lobster Volume and Price at Retail
Fresh / Live Fzn Price Fresh Price Fzn
16
Retail Sales highly Concentrated in Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
17
Menu expansion in Food Service
18
Menu expansion
19
Menu expansion
Source: Food Genius
20
Export Growth Has been to China
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Poun
ds
All Growth in US Exports of Live Lobster Has Been to China
Italy Spain France Other Europe China All
China Purchases
21
Future of Lobster in Europe
• Southern Europe will continue to buy live lobster
• N. American Lobster is a Relatively New Product for Northern Europe/UK
• Weak currency will make lobster expensive
22
Lobster Growth Will be Gradual• CETA will help increase supply from
Canada
• Catering will have to promote lobster at restaurants
• Food show promotion also important
• Need to go beyond cooking live lobster:
– European chefs face same problem as US of limits on live lobster
– Have to move beyond the popsicle lobster
23
Can we learn from Salmon to Raise the Value of Lobster?
Fine Dining
Everyday Meals
Penetration of Supermarkets
New Product Development, Innovation
24
An Everyday Meal: Smash Hit in London
BurgerLobster RollSteamed LobsterGrilled Lobster
£ 20
4 Items on Menu
25
Past and Future
Frozen popsicle lobster with spaghetti
Curried Leek with Lobster
26
Thank You
Recommended