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Ulf Bossel - 070703 - Lucerne
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Phenomena, Facts and Physicsof a Sustainable Energy Future
European Fuel Cell ForumMorgenacherstrasse 2F
CH-5452 Oberrohrdorf / SwitzerlandTel.: +41-56-496-7292, Fax: - 4412
forum@efcf.com, www.efcf.com
Presenting physics, not philosophy
Ulf BosselDipl. Ing. ETH
Ph.D. (UC Berkeley)
European Sustainable Energy ForumJuly 3, 2007
Lucerne / Switzerland
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Carbon Dioxide and Energy
The most effective way to reduce CO2 emissions is the switch from “dirty” fossil to “clean” renewable energy sources
combined with high energy efficiency
Global Warming is threatening mankindMain cause: CO2 from fossil energy consumption
CO2 production cannot be reduced significantly by legislative directives like
international agreements, carbon trading, CO2 taxes etc.
CO2 production must be reducedby a drastic reduction of fossil energy consumption
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Fundamental Laws of Physics1st Law of Thermodynamics:
„Energy cannot be created ……..
It can only be converted from one state to another.“
2nd Law of Thermodynamics:
„Some energy is always lost when energy is converted.“
… neither by presidential initiatives, majority votes of parliaments, decisions of committees, political parties,
nor by power plants, utilities, oil companies etc.
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Political Consequencesderived from this fundamental law of physics
The energy problem cannot be solved by politics or energy companies.
Please stop misleading statements and false promises.Make people understand the truth:
Energy availability cannot become a fundamental human right.Consumers must accept responsibility for their energy use
and adjust their energy consumption to their financial means by
Energy conservation: Avoid unnecessary energyEnergy efficiency: Use products with low specific energy consumptionEnergy harvest: Personally own or participate in renewable energy facilities
and accept visual impact of renewable energy installations
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As long as we tolerate this ……
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…... we should not complain about that ……
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…... or that ……
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…... or that!
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Energetic Consequencesderived from this fundamental law of physics
Where does the energy come from?
For reasons of physics: classification in “above” and “below” ground
above ground
belowground
Sun WindWater
Biomass
Coal Oil Gas Geo-thermal
Lignite U
Uranium
Waves
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1930 1970 2010 2050 2090
Mtoe
Year
Nuclear Energy
Coal
Gas
Oil
Data source: Oil, Gas, Colin Campbell/ASPO 2005Coal-, Nuclear Scenario, LBST 2005
2007
Modified original from Werner Zittel. LBSTSES-Presentation, Zurich, 2 June 2006
World Primary Energy SupplyForecast
No chance for close the fossil fuel gap by any other energy source
Only renewable energyavailable for a gradual replacement of fossil fuels
Rational use of energy (energy efficiency)is key to sustainble future
?
Energy cannot be created. Consumers must adjust to energy availability
All source are„below ground“
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Uranium Supply and Demand
Energy Watch Group (EWG), "URANIUM RESOURCES AND NUCLEAR ENERGY.Background paper prepared by the Energy Watch Group", Paper 1/2006 [pdf, 500 kB]
2007
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Coal Supply and Demand
Energy Watch Group (EWG), “COAL RESOURCES AND FUTURE PRODUCTIONS. Background paper prepared by the Energy Watch Group", Paper 1/2007 [pdf, 500 kB]
2007
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0
2
4
6
8
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Years
Primary Energy Demand and Energy Source Depletion
“above ground” renewablesNo energy needed to make
the sun shine or the wind blow
Source qualitye.g. % Uranium
Primary energydemand
Energy toconsumers
Even at constant consumption the demand of primary energy from “below ground” sources
will grow exponentially
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Energy Invested and Energy Gained
Energy problem must be solved with technologieswhose lifecycle energy balance is positive.
Time
Energy
Lifetimeenergy gain
Energy invest(gray energy)
Energy needed formaintenance
Energy delivered
Energy needed fordecomissioning
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Typical Net Energy Gains
Prime contenders for sustainable energy solutions:Wind and solar energy
Energy
farmed biomass
photovoltaics
nuclear Coal, gas, oil
wind
Time
heat losses
Useful electricity
Uranium oredepletion
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? ? ?Sustainable Energy Future
What is the problem?
Leaving“below ground”energy county
Entering“above ground”energy county
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Goodwill and ConfusionThere are many well-intended proposals of sustainable energy solutions.
However:
Most proposals are based on fascinating phenomena“Hydrogen can be made from many sources”
“CO2 can be separated from flue gases”“Tractors can be driven with rape seed oil”
Followed by the establishment of factspolitical decisions, research programs, international cooperation
R&D on specific technical solutions
Without proper consideration of the overall energy balance!
We have to solve an energy problem, not a technology or economic problem!
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Example 1: Hydrogen “Energy” (1)
2 hydrogen atoms = 2 hydrogen atoms 1 oxygen atom = 1 oxygen atom
1 carbon atom = 1 carbon atom8 hydrogen atoms = 8 hydrogen atoms
2 oxygen atoms = 2 oxygen atoms
Simple equations, easy to understand, friendly elements H, O and CHydrogen promoters see solutions.
Even politicians can follow and initiate hydrogen programs
Species balance (phenomena)From water by electrolysis
H2O => H2 + ½ O2
From natural gas and water by reforming
CH4 + 2 H2O => 4 H2 + CO2
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9 kg H2O = 1 kg H2 + 8 kg O2
2 kg CH4 + 4.5 kg H2O = 1 kg H2 + 5.5 kg CO2
Availability of clean water may limit hydrogen production.Mass handling not trivial. Carbon sequestration???
1 kg hydrogen replaces 1 Gallon or 4 Liters of gasoline
Mass balance (technology R&D)From water by electorlysis
H2O => H2 + ½ O2
From natural gas and water by reforming
CH4 + 2 H2O => 4 H2 + CO2
Example 1: Hydrogen “Energy” (2)
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From water by electorlysis
H2O => H2 + ½ O2
From natural gas and water by reforming
CH4 + 2 H2O => 4 H2 + CO2
Where does the energy come from to make and distribute hydrogen?We need to solve energy problems, not chemical problems!
electrical energy = energy in H2Reality: 1.3 kWh input = 1 kWh energy in H2 + 0.3 kWh lost
Methane energy + heat = energy in H2Reality: 1.2 kWh input = 1 kWh energy in H2 + 0.2 kWh lost
Energy balance (energy solution)
Add 60% for hydrogen distribution to customers
Example 1: Hydrogen “Energy” (3)
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Magnitude of the Energy Problem
Need 2,500 t LH2 or 36,000 m3 LH2 / dayextracted from 22,500 m3 water / day
plus continuous output of eight 1-GW power plantsfor electrolysis, liquefaction, transport, transfer of LH2!
Energy problems can never be solved by switching from fossil fuels to hydrogen
Frankfurt Airport (2004)520 jet departures per day, 50 Jumbo Jets (Boeing 747)
50 Jumbo Jets per dayeach loaded with
130 t of kerosene (today) or 50 t of liquid hydrogen (future)
At least 20 nuclear power plants plus the entire water consumption of Frankfurt needed to serve all 520 jet aircrafts per day at Frankfurt Airport
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Example 2: CO2-Sequestration
For 1 kg coal:Heating value (LHV) 8.5 kWh/kgModern Power Plant (PP) Electricity to grid: 3.87 kWh η = 45%
PP with CO2-Sequestration Electricity to grid: 3.23 kWh η = 38%Energy needs for CO2 liquefaction: 0,2 kWh/kg
or for 3.67 kg CO2 0.7 kWhEnergy needs for CO2 transport (guess) 0.5 kWhEnergy needs for CO2 disposal (guess for 1000 m) 0.2 kWhTotal energy needs for CO2-sequestration 1.40 kWhEffective useful energy 1.83 kWh
Overall efficiency η = 21.5%Coal-electricity-electrolysis-hydrogen-distribution-fuel cells-electricity: η = 5%
Twice as much coal for same generated power
C + O2 = CO212 kg C + 32 kg O2 = 44 kg CO2
1 kg C + 2.67 kg O2 = 3.67 kg CO21 GWel: 3 Mio tonnes of coal converted to 11 Mio tonnes of CO2 per year
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Example 3: Fuels from Farmed BiomassBiomass: For 1 ha of land:Average solar insolation 16,000,000 kWh / (ha*a)Harvested dry biomass 16 t / (ha*a)HHV of dry biomass 4,000 kWh / tRaw-biomass-energy harvest 64,000 kWh / (ha*a)Efficiency of PHOTOSYNTHESIS 0.40%
bio-methane bio-hydrogenConversion of biomass to gas 90% 80%Gas compression and distribution 90% 80%Conversion of gas to electricity 45% (SOFC) 40% (PEM)Useful AC electricity 24,600 kWh / (ha*a) 16,400 kWh / (ha*a)Energy for agriculture, transport, processing 4,000 4,500Useful energy 20,600 kWh / (ha*a) 11,900 kWh / (ha*a)Overall efficiency 0.137% 0,074%
Photovoltaic:Land use 80% 12,800,000 kWh / (ha*a)DC from PV array 12% 1,536,000 kWh / (ha*a)DC/AC conversion, transmission 85% 1,305,600 kWh / (ha*a)Overall efficiency PHOTOVOLTAICS 8.16% (110 x )PV-electricity-electrolysis-hydrogen-fuel cellsElectrolysis: 70%, compression, distribution: 80%, AC electricity: 32% of 1.536.000 kWh/ha*a 344.000 kWh / (ha*a)
2.15% (29 x )
Farmed biomass inadequate for energy production
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Biomass, Wind or Photovoltaics?
Ulf Bossel – Tholey 250806
Photovoltaics and wind far superior to biomass
Photovoltaic170 GWh / (km2a)
[300 GWh / (km2a)]
Wind50 GWh / (km2a)
[80 GWh / (km2a)]Biomass
2 GWh / (km2a)[2.5 GWh / (km2a)]
Useful AC electricity per year from 1 km2 of land
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Energy Harvest for Transportation
Ulf Bossel – Tholey 250806
Road mileage from 1 hectare of land
Biodiesel: 21,500 km
Bioethanol: 22,500 km
Biomass to Liquid: 60,000 km
Biogas: 67,000 km
Electricity from PV: 3,250,000 km
From:„Organisierte Verschwendung“
(“Organized Waste”)Photon. April, 2007
, (German solar energy magazine)
The problem is not the substitution of gasoline by biofuels,but the replacement of inefficient IC by efficient electric motors
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Corrections in the secondary energy arealike hydrogen, clean coal, farmed biomass
cannot provide lasting solutions: Time and money wasted, global catastrophe
Leaving“below ground”energy county
Entering“above ground”energy county
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SustainableEnergyFuture
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Sustainable Energy Future
Leaving “below ground”chemical energy county
Entering “above ground”physical energy county
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Sustainable Energy Future
Only two conditions must be satisfied:
Need to re-organize the energy system for a sustainable energy future
2.Efficiency
Distribution, storage and use
1.Sustainability
Energy source, energy waste, distribution and use
Equations become “over-determined”, if also „economy“ is demanded
Energy – Ecology – Economy
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Why Economy ?
Use compulsory reference energy price schedules or assure feed-in tariffs for transition period
Economic analyses must be based on energy prices over the entire lifetime of compared systems.
By physics:“Below ground” energy (today): Cost of energy increase exponentially“Above ground” energy (future): Cost of energy stays constant forever
Economics of renewable energy systems:- is poor, when based on today’s energy prices
- would be excellent, if based on energy prices in 2020
Economic comparison of renewable to conventional energy solutions leads to speculative results, but not to assured investment decisions
But how expensive is “below ground” energy in 2015, 2020, 2025?
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Energy Challenge
With the exception of food people need physical energy
motion, communication, light, heating and cooling(space conditioning and cooking), industrial processes
The challenge is the direct transfer of physical energy from source to service
Matching of physical demand to physical supply
With the exception of biomass nature provides physical energy
kinetic energy of wind, water, wavessolar radiation, geothermal heat
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Energy Flux Diagram of Germany (1995)
yellow: primary energyblue: energy losses purple: energy to final (inefficient) use
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Sustainable Energy
Energy only from sustainably managed renewable sources:Solar energy photovoltaic = electricity
thermal ≈ electricity, hot water, space heating etc.Wind energy ≈ electricityHydropower ≈ electricityOcean energy waves, tides ≈ electricityGeothermal heat ≈ electricity, hot water, space heating etc.Biomass and organic waste heat, organic fuels
heat ≈ electricity, hot water, space heating etc.
Energy carriers like water, hydrogen, electrons etc.obey the laws of species conservation.
Energy carriers cannot be classified as „sustainable“
Most renewable energy is “harvested” as electricity
Oil, natural gas, coal or nuclear are not sustainable!
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Solar Energy Availability
Solar energy received by red square exceeds world energy needs
In addition: wind, waves, geothermal, biomass, organic waste etc.
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Renewable Electricity to the UserElectricity from
Renewable Sources
Fuel Cells
Electrolysis
Hydrogen Economy
Electricityto the user
H2
Electron Economy
e-
e-
e-
e-
H2
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elec
troly
zer
fuel
cel
l
rene
wab
le A
C e
lect
ricity
DC
ele
ctric
ity
hydr
ogen
gas
pack
aged
trans
porte
d
trans
ferr
ed
stor
ed
DC
AC
100%
25%20%
90%
by electrons
gaseous hydrogenliquid hydrogen
by hydrogen
Consumer
RenewableSource Energy
Electricity Transport
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Renewable AC electricity AC power
100%110%
Renewable Energy Power Plantsand energy transport by electrons or hydrogen
400%
3 of 4 renewable energy power plants are neededto cover the losses! Also:New infrastructures for hydrogen and electricity
Substantially more renewable electricity needed
by hydrogen
by electrons
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Sustainable Energy FutureBy laws of physics:
The future will see an efficient physical energy “electron economy”(not an inefficient chemical energy “hydrogen economy”)
Develop and implement all-electric solutions likeelectric heat pumps, electric cars, electricity storage, grid extensions etc.
Promote electricity from renewable sources likehydropower, solar energy, wind energy, waves etc.
Use organic waste for the production of biofuelsfor long distance transportation by land, sea and air
Save farm land for food production andefficient wind and PV installations
First priority: Improve efficienty of energy system
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Energy Efficiency SolutionsGoal: Better living with less energy
Efficiency requires physical energy carrierslike electricity
(compatible with energy from renewable sources)
The same energy services (space conditioning, transport, light, communication etc.)
can be provided with much less energy
Housing15% of today
Industry30% of today
Transportation30% of today
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Transportation Sector
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0 50 100 150 200
Distance per car ride in km
Num
ber o
f rid
es u
p to
X (k
m)
in p
erce
nt o
f all
rides
Source:Mobilität in Deutschland 2002(61729 people interview ed)
50% of all car rides are shorter than 5 km19% 5-10 km, 10% 10-15 km, 6% 15-20 km
Need solutions for local mobility, not for family vacations
Find solutions for real transportation needs(Average driving distance: 45 km/d (US), 25 km/d (Europe)
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Electricity for Transportation
133
127
46
42
22
0 50 100 150
Li-ion EV
NiMH EV
compressed airvehicle
H2 in FCV
H2 in hybrid IC-EV
km traveled on 100 MJ at generator terminals
Wind-to-Wheel Energy Assessment for Ford Taurus-Size Carby Patrick Mazza and Roel Hammerschlag
(Lucerne Fuel Cell Forum 2005, corrected) 100 MJ = 28 kWh, 100 km = 60 miles
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Electric Cars are ComingLength 177 inWidth 70 inCurb weight 3500 lbs (+180 lbs)Seating 5Max. Power 4 x 50 = 200 kWMax. speed 120 MphRange/charge 150 M (300 M)Lithium-ion 90Ah at 14.8 VNo. of batteries 24Max. energy stored 32 kWh Gasoline equivalent 3 LitersFuel economy 1.2 L/100 km
= 200 mpg
Mitsubishi Lancer Evolution MIEV:
Source: Mitsubishi Corporate Press Release of August 24, 2005
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Sustainable Transportation Solutions
Distance land, air and ocean transport with “last drop of oil” or biofuels
No need for wasteful hydrogen for IC engine and fuel cell vehicles
(“Wind-to-Wheel” efficiency 20 to 25%)
Efficient electric or hybrid-electric cars for commuting and local transport(“Wind-to-Wheel” efficiency 70%)
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Renewable Energy Demand to Cover Storage Transfer Losses
Storage transfer efficiency essential for economic use of renewable energy
Input
Ideal storage(no losses)
Output
super capacitors: 109%Lithium-ion batteries: 116%
Lead acid batteries: 130%pumped water: 130%
compressed air: 156%
liquefied hydrogen: 400%
compressed hydrogen: 312%
0%
100% ≈
Useful energy
Primaryrenewable energy
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Need Dispersed Electricity Storage
Sustainable future:In addition to large centralized two-way storage facilities
One-way storage with many small dispersed appliance-connected storage units
In a sustainable energy future utilities will supply electricity when available to one-way storage
systems matched to end-use demands.
Today:Two-way storage in few large centralized facilities near power plans
Power Plant Consumer
2-waystorage
Renewable El.
Renewable El.
Renewable El.
2-way-storage
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Assumptions:$1 Mio/MWpeak or $3 Mio per MWaverage for advanced wind generators
$2 Mio/MWaverage from private investors$1 Mio/MWaverage from government
$1 million would trigger investment in 1 MW continuous wind power$300 billion would lead to 300 GW continuous wind generating capacity
How much wind energy capacity could have been obtained by $300 billion of US Government support?
Harvested wind energy sufficient to power 260 million electric family cars, each for 20,000 miles per year
Forever!
Need 0.65% of US landmass, but farming can continue under wind generators
Not a Question of Money
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ConclusionsA sustainable energy future based on energy from
renewable sources and energy efficiency is possible!
Prepare for an “Electron Economy”
We need:
Energy strategies based on physics, not fantasies.Investments in sustainable technologies, not research.
Courageous and wise political leadership.
Energy base will be changed from chemical to physical
Farmed biomass cannot provide solutions
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Thank you for your patience!
Questions?www.efcf.com/reports
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