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www.worldbank.org/hdchiefeconomist
The
World Bank
Human Development
Network
Spanish Impact
Evaluation Fund
Farhad Ahmed, Brek Batley, Radia Benamghar, Silva Shrestha, Tara Sharafudeen
Dhaka, Bangladesh
October 9-13, 2011
Evaluating Impact
Nepal Bridge Improvement &
Maintenance Project (P4R)
1. Background• Nepal’s road and bridge system are its social and economic lifeline. • To
• Total Strategic Road Network (SRN) length is 10,800 km
• SRN includes 1365 bridges (many 40 years old, maintenance backlog)
• Estimated 300 new bridges required to be built to fill the gaps in the SRN
• Funding for overall road development program has increased
substantially (60% increase for routine maintenance budget and 450% for
major (periodic and rehabilitation).
• For 2010/11, bridge program is US$35 million
• But still shortfalls in funding: US$60-70m required to address the
backlog maintenance and US$200 million to provide the missing bridges.
•And maintenance system is subject to political and other influences
Punched holes on deck
A bridge sagged due to the failure of steel
parts and broken railings: A case of major
repair
2. Description of Intervention
The intervention will help in the
maintenance and rehabilitation & construction
of bridges in Nepal.
Development of Bridge Management
System (BMS)
Prioritized list of bridges to be
maintained under budget constraints
Roster of bridges with conditions
Bridge asset management
A prioritized list of new bridges to be
constructed
3. Results Chain
o X million $
funds
INPUTS ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMESLONGER-TERM
OUTCOMESHIGHER ORDER GOALS
o Developmen
t of a Bridge
Management
System
(BMS)
o Developmen
t of a
prioritized
list of
bridges
o Developmen
t of
Maintenance
/rehabilitatio
n of bridges
o Improvemen
t of bridges
o Capacity
Building
o X nos.
Bridges
maintained
based on
BMS
o X no. of
prioritized
bridges
rehabilitated
o X no. of
prioritized
bridges
constructed
o Improved
livelihoods of
beneficiary
population
o Better
physical
connectivity
to socio-
economic
centers/
facilities
4. Primary Research Questions
Does prioritized maintenance intervention lead to
enhanced connectivity?
Does prioritized rehabilitation intervention lead to
considerably enhanced connectivity?
Does prioritized construction of bridges lead to provision
of better connectivity?
5. Outcome Indicators
Travel time to:
markets
health centres
educational institutions
Administrative centres
Travel time for non-local traffic
Frequency of trips to facilities & services:
markets
health centres
educational institutions
Administrative centres
Maintenance?
6. Identification Strategy/ Method
Concept: Regression discontinuity
Bridges will be built/rehabilitated from a prioritized list
Method: Difference in Difference
collect base-line data
conduct follow-up
7. Sample and Data
Sample
Baseline: Year 2012 for top 60 Bridges from the prioritized list
Impact: Year 2016 for top 60 Bridges from the prioritized list
Treatment: the top 30 bridges (completed) before follow-up survey in
2016 (20-30 bridges)
Control: the bottom 30 (of the top 60) bridges in 2016 (30-40 bridges)
Data to be measured:
Site specific travel time data to socio-economic facilities and services
from the nearest settlement(s)
Local: travel time to facilities and services from the centre of
settlements which within 5 km radius of the bridge (settlement level)
Non-local: travel time of traffic between non-interfering two
intersections (>5 km radius)
Frequency of visits to facilities/services by residents living within
5km radius of the bridge (HH level measurement) + HH attributes
8. Time Frame / Work Plan
Finalization of prioritized list of bridges (end-2011)
Baseline (2012):
settlements: 3,000 HHs (60 bridges x 50 HHs)
time:
Appointment of consultants: Month 2
Data collection, tabulation & analysis: Month 6
Reporting: Month 8
Follow-up (2016):
settlements: 3,000 HHs (60 bridges x 50 HHs)
Time:
Appointment of consultants: Month 2
Data collection, tabulation & analysis: Month 8
Reporting: Month 10
9. Sources of Financing
Nepal Bridge Improvement and Maintenance Project (N-
BIMP)
Trust-funds (Aus-AID?)
Estimated costs: $500,000 (0.8% of project)
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