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Pacific Ocean ROMS-CoSiNE Modeling (12-km) Incorporating optics into ROMS-CoSiNE-EcoLight Future predications for CCS based on
GFDL/ESM-ROMS-CoSiNE
Future changes of nutrient dynamics and biological productivity in California Current System
Fei Chai, Peng Xiu, Enrique Curchitser
Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) 1/8 deg. (~12km)
(Chai et al., 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009; Fujii and Chai, 2007; Liu and Chai, 2009; Xiu and Chai, 2011, Palacz et al., 2011, Xu et al., 2013, Xiu and Chai, 2013, 2014)
Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem Model (CoSiNE-13)
Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) 1/8 deg. (~12km)
(Chai et al., 2002, 2003, 2007, 2009; Fujii and Chai, 2007; Liu and Chai, 2009; Xiu and Chai, 2011, Palacz et al., 2011, Xu et al., 2013, Xiu and Chai, 2013, 2014)
Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem Model (CoSiNE-13)
Phytoplankton Comparison (1998-‐2007)SeaWiFS ChlorophyllModeled Chlorophyll
SeaWiFS Phytoplankton CarbonModeled Phytoplankton Carbon
Xiu & Chai
JGR,2012
IOPs Comparison (1998-‐2007)SeaWiFS (QAA) aph (443 nm)Modeled aph (440 nm)
SeaWiFS (QAA) acdom+det (412 nm)Modeled acdom+det (410 nm)
SeaWiFS (QAA) bbp (555 nm)Modeled bbp (550 nm)
Xiu & Chai 2012, JGR
January 2015
along ch
annel
12
34
periodic along-
40 km along-channel
80 km cross-channel
Idealized ROMS 3D Channel Geometry and
Configuration
Example simulations for an idealized upwelling-
downwelling
CoSiNE-‐Op?cs-‐EcoLight
ROMS-‐CoSiNE
Op?cal Module
Chl, CDOM,detritus
Kpar
Inherent Op?cal Proper?es (IOPs)
Satellite data QAA, GSM….
IOPs Comparison
Seawater op?cal proper?es
Photo-‐Acclima?on
Carbon Nitrogen
Chlorophyll
ComparisonBiological
Radia?ve Transfer Model (EcoLight)
PAR (400 nm to 700 nm) Short Wave Radia?on (400 to 1000)
CoSiNE-‐Op?cs-‐EcoLight
ROMS-‐CoSiNE
Op?cal Module
Chl, CDOM,detritus
Kpar
Inherent Op?cal Proper?es (IOPs)
Satellite data QAA, GSM….
IOPs Comparison
Seawater op?cal proper?es
Photo-‐Acclima?on
Carbon Nitrogen
Chlorophyll
ComparisonBiological
Radia?ve Transfer Model (EcoLight)
PAR (400 nm to 700 nm) Short Wave Radia?on (400 to 1000)
Hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and biology are fully coupled via EcoLight, RTE solu<on from 400-‐1000 nm
Thermodynamics with Paulson & Simpson short wave radia?on model. Biology with analy?c PAR(z) light model. There is no feedback from biology to physics
Original ROMS-‐CoSiNE Model New ROMS-‐CoSiNE-‐EcoLight Model
Coupling Hydrodynamics, Biology, and Op8cs
Hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and biology are fully coupled via EcoLight, RTE solu<on from 400-‐1000 nm
Thermodynamics with Paulson & Simpson short wave radia?on model. Biology with analy?c PAR(z) light model. There is no feedback from biology to physics
Original ROMS-‐CoSiNE Model New ROMS-‐CoSiNE-‐EcoLight Model
Coupling Hydrodynamics, Biology, and Op8cs
9
Pacific Ocean ROMS-CoSiNE Modeling (12-km) Incorporating optics into ROMS-CoSiNE-EcoLight
Future predications for CCS based on GFDL/ESM-ROMS-CoSiNE
Future changes of nutrient dynamics and biological productivity in California Current System
Fei Chai, Peng Xiu, Enrique Curchitser
1860 - 1900
2081 - 2120
Difference
Temperature (0-200m) NO3 (0-200m) Primary Production
Rykaczewski and Dunne, GRL, 2010
GFDL-ESM to ROMS-CoSiNE
Courtesy of Enrique Curchitser
One-way downscaling
For this talk:
Comparing two periods (20 years) Forced with RCP 8.5 from GFDL-‐ESM2M
1990-‐2009 VS. 2030-‐2049
Difference = AVG(2030~2049) – AVG(1990~2009 )
Temperature Comparison in CCS
Comparison of Temperature and Stratification Difference = (2030-‐2049) -‐ (1990-‐2009)
SST Increase Stratification (N2)Enhanced
Comparison of Nutrients and Primary Production Difference = (2030-‐2049) -‐ (1990-‐2009)
NO3Increase
warm colors
SiO4Increase
morewarm colors
DecreaseDecrease
warmingmore
SST Increase
Primary Production
Increase
Decrease
Comparison of Nutricline Depth (NO3 and SiO4) Difference = (2030-‐2049) -‐ (1990-‐2009)
NO3 Nutricline SiO4 Nutricline
Nutricline become shallower in most areas, more so for silicate than nitrate
Offshore region in the north, nutricline deepens
Plankton Biomass Comparions: (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)
Small Phyto. Diatoms
Microzoo MesozooMesozoo increase more
near -‐shore
Change in opposite direction
Microzoo increase more
off-‐shore
positive
Along shore wind
1990-‐09
Wind stress curl
1990-‐09
DIFF = (2039-‐49)-‐ (1990-‐09)
DIFF = (2039-‐49)-‐ (1990-‐09)
Increase near coast
more upwelling
Decrease offshore less
upwelling
Increase near coast
more upwelling
positive
Along shore wind
1990-‐09
Wind stress curl
1990-‐09
DIFF = (2039-‐49)-‐ (1990-‐09)
DIFF = (2039-‐49)-‐ (1990-‐09)
Increase near coast
more upwelling
Decrease offshore less
upwelling
Increase near coast
more upwelling
Future climate change impact on upwelling systems
Bakun et al. 2015
Bakun Hypothesis
Poleward migration of pressure systems
Enhancement of land-‐ocean
thermal contrast along the coast
% = [AVG(2030-‐49) – AVG(1990-‐09 )] /AVG(1990-‐09 )
Vertical Nutrient Flux Calculations
change (%) W NO3 SIO4
100 m 5.6% 9.9% 24%
200 m 21.3% 5.7% 18.8%
300 m -‐4.0% 2.9% 14.8%
Changes of Vertical Velocity (W) and NO3 and SiO4 in region 2 and 3, during April-‐July
23
Annual Mean NO3 Flux (0-‐200m) (kmol/s)
2.95
2.33 1.472.00
1.360.92
1990-‐2009
-‐0.01 0.30
Upwelling
0.250.26
Mixing
Net NO3 to Region 2 & 3:
Difference = 1 (4.14 -‐ 3.13)
Rykaczewski and Dunne GRL, 2010
2030-‐2049
Annual Mean NO3 Flux (0-‐200m) (kmol/s)
2.95
2.33 1.472.00
1.360.92
1990-‐2009
-‐0.01 0.30
Upwelling
0.250.26
Mixing
Net NO3 to Region 2 & 3:
Difference = 1 (4.14 -‐ 3.13)
Rykaczewski and Dunne GRL, 2010
2030-‐2049
Annual Mean NO3 Flux (0-‐200m) (kmol/s)
2.95
2.33 1.472.00
1.360.92
1990-‐2009
-‐0.01 0.30
Upwelling
0.250.26
Mixing
Net NO3 to Region 2 & 3:
Difference = 1 (4.14 -‐ 3.13)
Rykaczewski and Dunne GRL, 2010
2030-‐2049
Increasing EKE in the central offshore potentially enhancing upper water nutrients
Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) Difference = (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)
Increasing EKE in the central offshore potentially enhancing upper water nutrients
Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) Difference = (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)
Increasing EKE in the central offshore potentially enhancing upper water nutrients
Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) Difference = (2030-‐49) -‐ (1990-‐09)
22
Summary for future predications of CCS
• One-‐way downscaling higher resolution coastal model yield more information for regional difference
• In the central and southern coast, increase wind and wind stress curl lead to stronger upwelling; upwelled nutrients also increased due to warming and stratification in the open ocean which transport to the CCS
• Primary production increase due to more nutrients to CCS, diatoms and meso-‐zooplankton increase more near shore
• Increased eddy activity offshore along with decreased wind stress curl enhance nutrient supply to the upper ocean
• For the northern CCS, changing in wind stress curl lead to more downwelling, which leads to decrease of nutrient
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