Fiscal and Structural Challenges in Commodity-Dependent...

Fiscal and Structural Challenges in Commodity-Dependent Developing Economies

PRAKASH LOUNGANI

CHIEF, DEVELOPMENT MACROECONOMICS, IMF

PRESENTATION AT UN HIGH-LEVEL DIALOGUE

NEW YORK, MAY 16, 2016

I THANK GIOVANNI MELINA AND KE WANG FOR PUTTING TOGETHER THIS PRESENTATION.

VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE PRESENTER AND SHOULD NOT BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE IMF.

Selected Nonrenewable Commodity Prices

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

ALUMINUM COPPER UK IRON ORE

Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15

Selected Metal Commodities Index NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Prices

(USD/Barrel)

List of Nonrenewable Commodity

Exporters

Algeria Gabon Norway

Angola Ghana Oman

Australia Guinea Papua New Guinea

Azerbaijan Guyana Peru

Bahrain Indonesia Qatar

Bolivia Iran Russia

Botswana Iraq Saudi Arabia

Brunei Kazakhstan South Africa

Cameroon Kuwait Sudan

Canada Libya Suriname

Chile Mali Syria

Colombia Mauritania Timor Leste

Congo Mexico Trinidad and

Tobago

Cote d'Ivoire Mongolia United Arab

Emirates

DR Congo Mozambique Venezuela

Ecuador Niger Yemen

Equatorial Guinea Nigeria Zambia

Countries with more than 20%

of exports from nonrenewable

commodities

All other countries

17% 17% 21% 22%

Note: List and charts from IMF Fiscal Monitor (Oct 2015). Colored are low-income and lower-middle-income economies

Nonrenewable Commodity Exporters

Low-Income Developing Countries: Growth

LIDCs: Vulnerability to Growth Declines

5/26/2016

IMF Diversification Toolkit This toolkit contains two main databases:

Export Diversification Database

Export Quality Database

http://dev-cwsswn02d.imf.org/datamapper/imfv4/index.php?db=SPRLU

Export Diversification and Volatility

Less Diversified More Diversified

Growth Rate, LICs, 1962-2010

Less Diversified More Diversified

Volatility, LICs, 1962-2010

Note: “Less Diversified” here means the countries with diversification level below 30 percentile of all LICs;

“More Diversified” here means the countries with diversification level above 70 percentile of all LICs.

Diversification Spurts and Growth Accelerations

DIGNAR simulations: Effects of the fall in commodity prices on GDP and Public Debt

Diversified: Bangladesh, Kenya, Senegal, Tanzania, Uganda, Vietnam.

Commodity exporters (at least 50% of exports are fuels and primary commodities): Bolivia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mongolia,

Mozambique, Nigeria, Papua New Guinea, Zambia.

Fiscal adjustment policies: Scenario 1: cut in public investment

Fiscal adjustment policies: Scenario 2: cut in current expenditures & increase in VAT

References Bonaglia F., Fukasaku K. (2002) "Trading Competitively: Trade Capacity Building in Sub Saharan Africa", OECD Publishing, Nov 13, 2002.

Futoshi, N., Melina, G., Presbitero, A., Zanna, L.-F. (2016). "Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook in Low-Income Developing Countries: the Role of External Factors", World Economic Outlook, Box 1.2, Chapter 1, April 2016, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

International Monetary Fund (2011) “Revenue Mobilization in Developing Countries.” International Monetary Fund, Washington.

International Monetary Fund (2014) “Sustaining Long-Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Low-Income Countries—The Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification”, IMF Policy Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

International Monetary Fund (2014) “Sustaining Long-Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Low-Income Countries—The Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification—Background Notes”, IMF Policy Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

International Monetary Fund (2015) “Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects in Low-Income Developing Countries: 2015”, IMF Policy Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington.

International Monetary Fund (2016) “Weathering the Commodity Price Slump”, Regional Economic Outlook – Sub-Saharan Africa, Chapter 2, April 2016, Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Melina, G., Yang, S.-C. S., Zanna, L.-F. (2016). "Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries: The DIGNAR Model", Economic Modelling, Volume 52, Part B, Pages 630-649.

Website

The Diversification Toolkit: Export Diversification and Quality Databases. https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/dfidimf/diversification.htm

Fiscal and Structural Challenges in Commodity-Dependent...

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