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Five-Year Forecast
Greg Grootendorst, Chief Economist, Hampton Roads Planning District Commission
Farrell Hanzaker, Chief Financial Officer, Virginia Beach Schools
David Bradley, Director of Budget and Management Services
Hampton RoadsEconomic Briefing
Presented to the Virginia Beach City Council
Greg GrootendorstChief Economist, HRPDCNovember 20, 2018
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
19,000
Bill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs (
20
09
)Prerecession High:
$15.8 Trillion
Current Value: $18.7 Trillion
Recession Low:$15.1 Trillion
GDP is up 23.8 % from the recession low
U.S. Non-Farm Civilian Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f Em
plo
yee
sPrerecession High:
138,432,000Current Value:
149,750,000
Recession Low:129,733,000
Payroll employment has grown steadily at an annualized rate of 1.7 % since the recession low.
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Un
em
plo
yme
nt
Rat
e
Prerecession Low:4.4%
Current Value: 3.7%
Recession High:10.0%
The unemployment rate has been reduced by over half sincethe height of the recession and is now well below re-recession levels.
S&P 500 Stock Market Index
Source: Yahoo Finance and HRPDC
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Ind
ex V
alu
e
Prerecession High:1,549.4
Current Value:2,722.2
Recession Low:735.1
The S&P stock market index is 270% from the pre-recession low, and up 76% from the pre-recession high
Employment Decline and Recovery
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%P
erc
en
t Jo
b L
oss
Re
lati
ve t
o P
eak
Months Since Peak Employment
U.S. Virginia Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and HRPDC
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90B
illio
ns
of
20
09
Do
llars
Non-ZeroAxis
$83.6B $81.8B
-2.1%
Hampton Roads Gross Product
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and HRPDC
Annualized Growth in Gross Product(Inflation-Adjusted)
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
An
nu
aliz
ed
Ch
ange
in G
ross
Pro
du
ct(2
01
4 -
20
17
)
Metropolitan Areas with Population between 1 and 4 Million
Hampton Roads: 0.8%
700
710
720
730
740
750
760
770
780
790
800
Seas
on
ally
Ad
just
ed
Pay
rolls
, Th
ou
san
ds
781,600Jul, 2007
733,800Feb, 2010
785,400Sep, 2018
Nonfarm Civilian Employment (Jobs) in Hampton Roads
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
Hampton Roads Employment ChangeAugust ‘08 – August ‘18
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
Local GovernmentConstructionInformation
Wholesale TradeReal Estate & Leasing
ManufacturingRetail Trade
Administrative & SupportState Government
Finance & InsuranceTransportation & Utilities
Education ServicesManagement
Other ServicesLeisure & HospitalityScientific & TechnicalFederal Government
Healthcare & Social
Change inEmployment
Hampton Roads Employment ChangeAugust ‘17 – August ‘18
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
Healthcare & SocialLocal GovernmentEducation Services
Real Estate & LeasingFederal Government
InformationFinance & Insurance
Wholesale TradeState Government
ConstructionOther Services
Transportation & UtilitiesRetail Trade
ManagementLeisure & Hospitality
Administrative & SupportManufacturing
Scientific & Technical
Change inEmployment
Unemployment RatesSeasonally Adjusted
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Un
em
plo
yme
nt
Rat
e U.S. Hampton Roads Virginia
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, and HRPDC
Relative Per Capita Income
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
Rat
io o
f H
amp
ton
Ro
ads
PC
I to
U.S
. & V
irgi
nia
Share of US PCI Share of Virginia PCI
105% 96%92%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC
Median Family Incomes
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
Inco
me
in 2
01
7 D
olla
rs Hampton Roads U.S.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
Annualized Real Defense Outlays(U.S. Quarterly Data, Seasonally Adjusted)
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000B
illio
ns
of
Re
al D
olla
rs (
20
17
$'s
)
Korean
War on Terror80's Cold
WarBuildup
VietnamWar
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
Military Personnel in HR and the U.S.
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
U.S. M
ilitary Pe
rson
ne
lH
amp
ton
Ro
ads
Mili
tary
Pe
rso
nn
el
Hampton Roads U.S.
Source: USAspending.gov and HRPDC
Defense Contracts in Hampton Roads(Inflation-Adjusted)
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Mill
ion
s o
f 2
01
6 D
olla
rs(5
-Ye
ar M
ovi
ng
Ave
rage
)
Fiscal Year
Source: Port of Virginia and HRPDC
General Cargo in Hampton Roads
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mill
ion
s o
f Sh
ort
To
ns
Exports Imports
Containers:
Ships:
Share:
Source: Virginia Tourism Corporation and HRPDC
Tourism Expenditures in HR(Inflation-Adjusted)
$0.0
$1.0
$2.0
$3.0
$4.0
$5.0
$6.0
Bill
ion
s o
f 2
01
7 D
olla
rs13.2%
Hotel Revenue:
Down 2.9%in 10 Years
Employment:Up 6.6%
in 10 years
Hampton Roads Retail Sales
Source: Virginia Department of Taxation and HRPDC
$1.2
$1.4
$1.6
$1.8
$2.0
$2.2B
illio
ns
of
Do
llars
of
Sale
s (S
eas
on
ally
Ad
just
ed
)
-12.7%
+11.8%
+28.0%
Annualized growth rate of 1.2% since 2006
Inflation adjusted annualized growth rate of -1.1% since 2006
Home Price Indexes
Source: Fair Housing Finance Agency and HRPDC
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Year
-ove
r-Ye
ar G
row
th in
HP
I Hampton Roads
Virginia
U.S.
Source: National Association of Homebuilders and HRPDC
NAHB/Wells Fargo Hampton RoadsHousing Opportunity Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ho
usi
ng
Op
po
rtu
nit
y In
dex
(% o
f H
om
es
Sold
Aff
ord
able
to
a M
ed
ian
In
com
e F
amily
)
Hampton Roads Population
Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service and HRPDC
1960 -- 927,854
2017 -- 1,729,326
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Po
pu
lati
on
1.8% 0.9% 0.5%0.6%0.8%
1.8%
1.8%
Hampton Roads Population Histogram
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC
1.8% 0.9% 0.5%0.6%0.8%
1.8%
1.8%
100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000
Under 5 years
5 to 9 years
10 to 14 years
15 to 19 years
20 to 24 years
25 to 29 years
30 to 34 years
35 to 39 years
40 to 44 years
45 to 49 years
50 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
60 to 64 years
65 to 69 years
70 to 74 years
75 to 79 years
80 to 84 years
85 years and over
Population
Ag
e C
ate
go
ries
Females
Males
(Greatest)
Silent
Boomers
Gen X
Millen
Next..
Graduation Rates
Source: Virginia Department of Education and HRPDC
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
08
*
20
09
*
20
10
*
20
11
*
20
12
*
20
13
*
20
14
*
20
15
*
20
16
*
20
17
*
20
18
*
4 Y
ear
Gra
du
atio
n R
ate
Hampton Roads
Virginia Graduation Rate
Virginia Graduation Rate- Cohort
* Dates are Graduation Rates Calculated Using the Cohort Method
Per Pupil School Spending(Inflation-Adjusted)
Source: Virginia Department of Education, Bureau of Economic Analysis and HRPDC
Forecast
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
17
Do
llars
Pe
r P
up
il Hampton Roads Virginia
Education
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC
Hampton Roads U.S. Average
Highschool Equivalence 91.5% 88.0%
College Attainment 32.1% 32.0%
Graduate or Professional Degree 12.3% 12.3%
Government Finances
Source: Auditor of Public Accounts and HRPDC
0%20%40%60%80%
100%120%140%160%
Quality of Life in Hampton Roads
Source: Auditor of Public Accounts and HRPDC
Violent Crime
Poverty Rate
Ozone Levels
Hampton Roads vs. United States
86%
87%
89%
% Who Worked Outside County of Residence
1 39
% of People Who Have a Bachelor's Degree
1 39
Median Age 1 39
Gini Coefficient (Measure of Income Equality) 1 39
% of Population that Moved in the Past Year
1 39
Per Capita Income 1 39
% of Labor Force in the Armed Forces
1 39
Highest Value Lowest Value
8.3 %
45.9%
18.3%
$32,493
.45
36.1
32.1%
3
1
22
4
32
27
35
HR Rank in the Comparable Metro Areas
2017 American Community Survey Data for Hampton Roads
Virginia Beach Population Histogram
30,000 20,000 10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000
Under 5 years 5 to 9 years
10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years 35 to 39 years 40 to 44 years 45 to 49 years 50 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 to 79 years 80 to 84 years
85 years and over
FemaleMale
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HRPDC
Virginia Beach Population Growth
Source: Weldon Cooper Center and HRPDC
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
85,218
453,628
Population Growth Rates
Source: Weldon Cooper Center, U.S. Census Bureau, and HRPDC
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
5-Y
ear
An
nu
aliz
ed
Gro
wth
Rat
e
Hampton Roads
Virginia
United States
Virginia Beach
Industry Employment in VB
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
Agriculture, Forestry & FishingTransportation & Warehousing
Management of CompaniesInformation
Wholesale TradeReal Estate & Rental & Leasing
Arts, Entertainment & RecManufacturingOther Services
Public AdministrationFinance and Insurance
ConstructionAdministrative & Support
Professional, Scientific & TechEducational Services
Health Care & Social Ast.Retail Trade
Accommodation and FoodUndisclosed
10 – Year Change in VB Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Wholesale Trade
Construction
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
Information
Administrative & Support
Transportation & Warehousing
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Finance and Insurance
Educational Services
Other Services
Management of Companies
Professional, Scientific & Tech
Public Administration
Arts, Entertainment & Rec
Accommodation and Food
Health Care & Social Ast.
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
How Does Virginia Beach Compare?
Unemployment
Rate
Not in Labor
Force
10 - Year
Employment
Growth
10 - Year
Population
Growth
Median
Household
Income
Owner-Occupied
Housing Rate
Average Family
SizeMedian Age
Virginia Beach 2.8% 30.1% 2.7% 5.6% 72,586$ 65% 3.10 36.2
Hampton Roads 3.2% 32.9% 0.6% 5.8% 60,059$ 61% 3.14 35.6
Virginia 3.0% 33.8% 4.8% 9.0% 66,149$ 66% 3.17 37.8
United States 3.7% 36.5% 6.3% 8.1% 55,322$ 64% 3.24 37.7
U.S. Civilian Employment
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Mill
ion
s o
f Jo
bs
Recessions
9 Years 10 Years 9.5 Years
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics and HRPDC
Forecast of U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators and HRPDC
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
An
nu
aliz
ed P
erc
en
t C
han
geConsensus Forecast
Federal Budget Deficits
Source: Congressional Budget Office and HRPDC
-$1,800
-$1,600
-$1,400
-$1,200
-$1,000
-$800
-$600
-$400
-$200
$0
$200
$400B
illio
ns
of
Infl
atio
n-A
dju
sted
Do
llars
(2
01
2)
On-Budget Deficit
Total Deficit
Forecast
Sources: HRPDC, HRTPO, and the U.S. Census Bureau
Sources: HRPDC, HRTPO, and the U.S. Census Bureau
Schools’
Operating Budget
VBCPS’ Key Budget Assumptions
Other Revenue Sources
Anticipate reducing the reliance on reversion funding by $1 million each year of the forecast period
Local, State and Federal Revenue
This forecast reflects increases in revenue at the state and local levels and continues to reverse the impact of significant cuts VBCPS has sustained since 2008
Revenue Highlights
2019-20 2020-21 2021-222022-
232023-
24
State Shared Sales Tax +2.5% +2.75% +2.75% +3.0% +3.0%
Other State Revenue +2.5% +2.75% +2.75% +3.0% +3.0%
Local Revenue (RSF)* +1.06% +2.24% +2.27% +2.25% +2.25%
Federal Revenue - - - - -
Non-Personnel Expenses
All non-personnel budget line items impacted by inflation are expected to increase by approximately 2.5% each year of
the forecast period
Capital outlay expenditures are expected to increase by approximately $450,000 to purchase five additional
replacement school buses each year from FY 2019-20 to FY 2022-23
Expenditure Highlights
Personnel Services and Fringe Benefits
Salary increase of 3.0% for FY 2019-20 and 2.0% for each of the forecast years from FY 2020-23 to FY 2023-24
Health insurance rates are projected to rise by 3% each year from FY 2019-20 to FY 2023-24
Funding to continue the expansion of full-day kindergarten will be allocated each forecast year from FY 2020-21 to FY 2022-23
Programmatic Priorities - expansion of existing programs or adding new programs (e.g. expansion of
preschool and full-day kindergarten)
Technology - replace broken and aging whiteboards with standalone interactive displays
Employee Compensation - competitive pay increases, primarily associated with increasing allowances for
advanced degrees, reclassifying teacher assistants and moving selected positions to the Teacher Pay
Scale
Employee Benefits - rising costs associated with health care
State and Federal Mandates - new financial transparency provision in the Every Student Succeeds Act of
2015 (ESSA)
The following list highlights examples of factors that place considerable pressure on the School
Operating budget.
Lagging State Funding - state budget allocates nine percent less on K-12 instruction than it
did in 2005
School Safety – need resources targeted to help fund VBCPS’ security enhancements and
address recommendations from the Blue Ribbon Panel on School Safety and Security
Structurally Flawed Operating budget strategy - FY 2018/19 marks the ninth consecutive
year VBCPS is relying on one-time reversion funds for ongoing expenses ($6.8 million)
Enrollment and demographics - slow decline in student enrollment projected to continue
Projected Deficits
Utilizing the revenue and
expenditure assumptions
from the previous slide,
VBCPS is projecting the
following deficits over the
forecast period.
-
( 9,817,279 )( 10,217,160 )
( 10,563,310 )
( 9,913,185 )
( 7,039,690 )
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
740,000,000
760,000,000
780,000,000
800,000,000
820,000,000
840,000,000
860,000,000
880,000,000
900,000,000
920,000,000
940,000,000
FY 2018-19Adopted
FY 2019-20Forecast
FY 2020-21Forecast
FY 2021-22Forecast
FY 2022-23Forecast
FY 2023-24Forecast
Revenue Expenditures Baseline Deficit
49
VBCPS’ Forecasted Revenue
VBCPS’ Forecasted Expenditures
FY 2018-19
Adopted
FY 2019-20
Forecast
FY 2020-21
Forecast
FY 2021-22
Forecast
FY 2022-23
Forecast
FY 2023-24
Forecast
Revenue Sharing Formula 442,120,415 446,791,534 456,785,596 467,174,673 477,671,905 488,438,456
Schools Use of Sandbridge TIF 409,000 409,000 - - - -
From the Use of Money and Property 477,000 477,000 477,000 477,000 477,000 477,000
Charges for Services 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638 2,816,638
Miscellaneous Revenue 224,703 224,703 224,703 224,703 224,703 224,703
State Shared Sales Tax 75,344,490 77,228,102 79,351,875 81,534,052 83,980,073 86,499,475
Other State Revenue 272,725,078 286,276,659 294,149,267 302,238,372 311,305,523 320,644,689
Federal Revenue 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000 12,200,000
School Reversion/Fund Balance 6,800,000 5,800,000 4,800,000 3,800,000 2,800,000 1,800,000
813,117,324 832,223,636 850,805,079 870,465,438 891,475,842 913,100,961
FY 2018-19
Adopted
FY 2019-20
Forecast
FY 2020-21
Forecast
FY 2021-22
Forecast
FY 2022-23
Forecast
FY 2023-24
Forecast
Personnel Services 471,393,129 485,534,923 496,850,242 508,391,868 520,164,328 530,567,614
Fringe Benefits
FICA 35,882,382 37,143,422 38,009,044 38,891,978 39,792,571 40,588,422
VRS 71,058,250 76,131,876 77,906,118 79,715,845 81,561,767 83,193,002
Health Insurance 60,655,983 62,475,662 64,349,932 66,280,430 68,268,843 70,316,909
Life Insurance 5,820,627 6,360,507 6,508,738 6,659,933 6,814,153 6,950,436
All Other Fringe Benefits 3,299,581 3,299,581 3,299,581 3,299,581 3,299,581 3,299,581
Contractual Services 50,138,408 51,391,868 52,676,665 53,993,582 55,343,421 56,727,007
Other Charges 54,852,900 56,224,223 57,629,828 59,070,574 60,547,338 62,061,022
Capital Outlay 5,402,082 5,852,082 6,302,082 6,752,082 7,202,082 6,085,421
Land, Structures and Improvement 222,577 222,577 222,577 222,577 222,577 222,577
PAYGO 500,000
Debt Service 41,951,320 45,356,997 45,153,910 45,569,058 45,921,986 47,807,686
Transfers to Other Funds
Athletics Fund 4,524,774 4,524,774 4,524,774 4,524,774 4,524,774 4,524,774
Categorical Grants Fund 3,612,280 3,612,280 3,612,280 3,612,280 3,612,280 3,612,280
Green Run Collegiate Fund 3,803,031 3,910,143 3,976,468 4,044,186 4,113,327 4,183,920
813,117,324 842,040,915 861,022,239 881,028,748 901,389,027 920,140,651
General Fund
Revenues
Real Estate
$577
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
Mill
ion
s
Budget Actual Projection
Personal Property
$174
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
Mill
ion
s
Budget Actual Projection
Consumer Driven Revenues
$74
$57
$50
$9
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
Mill
ion
s
Budget Actual Projection
General Sales
BPOL
Restaurant
Hotel
Telecommunications
$22
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
Mill
ion
s
Budget Actual Projection
State Revenue
$111
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
Mill
ion
s
Budget Actual Projection
Federal
$23
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
$22
$24
$26
$28
$30
FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24
Mill
ion
s
Budget Actual Projection
3% salary increase in FY 20; 2% for following years
2.5% inflation each year
1% rate increase in VRS every 2 years beginning in FY 21
3% annual increase in healthcare costs
City CIP and Operating Budget commitments
Debt based on current debt schedules and projected
issuances
Budgeting for Attrition
Virginia Beach has historically budgeted for full salaries and used savings from attrition (fund balance) in following years of the CIP
In FY 19:
$2.3 million in attrition savings to offset the elimination of cigarette and automobile license tax
$3 million in attrition savings for horizontal and vertical compression
Key issues to consider:
Impact on future CIP
Flexibility during economic downturn
Safeguard AAA bond rating
General Fund Expenses and Revenue
Five Year Forecast
$17.4M $19.2M $28.5M
$1.274
$1.152
$9.2M
$1.306
$1.10
$1.13
$1.16
$1.19
$1.22
$1.25
$1.28
$1.31
$1.34
FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024
Bill
ion
s
Revenues Expenditures
$32.3M
Median Household Income
$72,586
$61,399
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
$85,000
$90,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Median Household Income Adjusted to 2007 Dollars
Operating Budget Adjusted for Inflation
$1,915
$1,611 $1,628 $1,623
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
$1,600
$1,700
$1,800
$1,900
$2,000
$2,100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mill
ion
s
Fiscal Year
Budget Inflation Adjusted (Constant Dollars)
City Operating Budget vs Median Household Income
16.80%
18.10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Operating Budget Growth Median Household Income Growth
Relative Measures of Tax Burden
Relative Measures of Tax Burden
Locality Per Capita Expenditures as a % of Per Capita Income
Virginia Beach 6.32%
Chesapeake 7.21%
Hampton 9.36%
Newport News 9.39%
Norfolk 8.84%
Portsmouth 9.44%
Suffolk 7.39%
Future Recession?
Regional economy improving but still lagging behind other MSAs
Budget process will address deficits
Future decisions
Decision on compensation increases
Budgeting for attrition
Possible recession on the horizon?
Enterprise Fund discussion forthcoming (March)
Questions?
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