Food Security in the Coral Triangle of the Pacific Countries … · 2017. 10. 12. · the supply of...

• FisheriesintheCoralTriangleofthePacificcountriesarefacingchangingclimaticconditionsandongoingenvironmentaldegradation,whichthreatenfoodsecurityandlivelihoods.

• ThestudyidentifiedtheimpactsofclimatechangeonthefisheriessectorsofFiji,SolomonIslands,Timor-Leste,andVanuatu,andevaluatedthepotentialofthreefisheriesdevelopmentstrategiestoimprovefoodsecurity.

• Modelingresultsindicatedsubstantialeconomicgainsandimprovedfoodsecuritywiththeadoptionofthesestrategies:aquacultureexpansion,low-costinshorefish-aggregatingdeviceutilization,andimprovednaturalresourcesmanagement(includingmarine-protectedareas).

• Theresearchfindingscaninformfisheriesandconservationpolicydevelopmentthatistailoredtoeachcountry’sneeds.

IntroductIonThehealthandlivelihoodsofruralcommunities,especiallycoastalcommunitiesthatrelyonfishingforsubsistenceandincome,faceseriousrisks.Theongoingdegradationofcoastalecosystems,overharvestingofvaluablespecies,andclimatechange(includingmoreextremeweatherevents,risingsealevels,increasingseasurfacetemperatures,andoceanacidification)areloweringtheproductionoffish,whichistheregion’sprimarysourceofprotein.

In2010,theAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)launchedaregionaltechnicalassistance(TA)projectinresponsetoconcernsraisedbyfivePacificdevelopingmembercountriesthatliewithinorontheborderoftheCoralTriangle—Fiji,PapuaNewGuinea,SolomonIslands,Timor-Leste,andVanuatu(collectivelycalledtheCoralTriangleofthePacific)—regardingmanagementoftheircoastalandmarineresources.TheTAprojectaimedtohelpthecountriesaddresstheurgentthreatsfacingtheseresourcesand,atthesametime,improvefoodsecurity,inlinewiththeobjectivesoftheCoralTriangleInitiativeonCoralReefs,FisheriesandFoodSecurity.1

Aspartoftheproject,from2011to2013,theInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstituteconductedaresearchstudyonClimate Change and Development Strategies for the Coastal Communities of the Pacific Coral Triangle Countriesinfourcountries—Fiji,SolomonIslands,Timor-Leste,andVanuatu.2Thisbriefpresentsthestudy’sfindings.

ADBBRIEFSno. 84

OCTOBER 2017

KEY PoIntS Food Security in the coral triangle of the Pacific countries: Prospects of Fisheries development Strategies

ISBN978-92-9257-937-1(Print)ISBN978-92-9257-938-8(e-ISBN)ISSN2071-7202(Print)ISSN2218-2675(e-ISSN)PublicationStockNo.BRF178996-2DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/BRF178996-2

Olly NorojonoDirectorTransport,EnergyandNaturalResourcesDivisionPacificDepartmentonorojono@adb.org

Deborah RobertsonNaturalResourcesSpecialistPacificDepartmentdrobertson@adb.org

1 ADB.2010.Technical Assistance for Strengthening Coastal and Marine Resources Management in the Coral Triangle of the Pacific (Phase 2). Manila(TA7753-REG).

2 PapuaNewGuineawasexcludedduetothedelayininceptionactivitiesandconcernsaboutsecurity.

BasedonthereportpreparedbyMadanM.Dey,MarkW.Rosegrant,andRowenaA.Valmonte-SantosoftheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute,Washington,DC.TheresearchwasconductedundertheADBandGlobalEnvironmentFacilityinitiativeonStrengtheningCoastalandMarineResourcesManagementintheCoralTriangleofthePacific(Phase2).Forfurtherdetails,visittheADBwebsitefortheTAconsultant’sreport(https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/ta-7753-prospects-adaptation-strategies-fisheries-sector-cc-pacific-coral-triangle-tacr).Alsorefertohttp://blogs.adb.org/blog/securing-sustainable-fishing-pacific-coral-triangle-countriesandhttp://ctknetwork.org/catch-of-the-week/securing-sustainable-fishing-in-the-pacific-coral-triangle-countries/.

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rESEarch objEctIvEThegoalofthestudywastoassesstheabilityofthreefisheriesdevelopmentstrategies:aquacultureexpansion,low-costinshorefish-aggregatingdevice(FAD)3utilization,andimprovednaturalresourcesmanagement(NRM),toaddressthegrowingfoodsecurityconcernsinthesefourcountriesinthefaceofclimatechange.

rESEarch MEthodTheresearchfollowedthreemainsteps,followedbyapolicyreviewandaqualitativeassessment.Becausethemethodologywasdesignedtoovercomelimitationsinthedata,itmaybeusefultoothersmallislanddevelopingstatesfacingsimilarinformationgaps.

1. develop the baseline models.Recognizingthelimitedscienceonfisheriesandbiological/physicalresponsestoclimatechangeinthecountriesstudied,thisstudydevelopedandusedamarketfishsupply–demandmodel.4

Eachcountry’sbaselinemodelincludeddataonfishproduction(afunctionofpricesandsupplyshiftersliketechnologyandclimatechange)andconsumption(afunctionofprices,incomegrowth,andpopulationgrowth);incomegrowth;prices;technologicalchange;and

climatechange.Alldomesticfisheries(notcatchbyforeignfishingfleets)wereincludedandgroupedintosubsectors.Theanalysisconsideredthreetimeperiods:current,mediumterm(2035),andlongterm(2050).

2. collect and construct data sets. Baselinedataondemand,supply,andpricesforfishtypeswerecollectedfromsecondarysourcesandsurveysoflocalmarkets,whileestimatesofdemandandsupplyelasticity(responsivenesstochangesinprices)weredevelopedthroughexpertopinionsurveysandfocusgroupdiscussions.5

3. analyze the impacts of fisheries development strategies. The threefisheriesdevelopmentstrategiesandestimatesoftheirimpactswereidentifiedthroughstakeholderdiscussions,expertopinionsurveys,andfocusgroupdiscussions.Thestrategieswerethenrunthrougheachcountrymodelsothattheirimpactscouldbecomparedwiththebaselinescenariosandwitheachother.

FIndIngS

Fisheries under baseline conditions to 2050—more demand and less supply

Underbaselineconditions,itislikelythat,acrossallfourcountries,thedemand for fish and seafood will increase substantially duetorisingpercapitaincomeandpopulation,while coastal fish supply will likely decreaseduetotheongoingdegradationofthemarineenvironmentandtheimpactsofclimatechange.Thiswillmostimpactsubsistenceandsmall-scalefishersandtheircommunitiesthatrelyoncoastalfisheriesforfoodandincome.Otherlikelyscenariosshowkeydifferencesbetweenthefourcountries(mainlyduetotheprevailingfishtraderegimesindifferentcountries,therelativeimportanceofvarioussectorsinfishproductionandconsumption,andthebehaviorsofproducersandconsumers).

the supply of tuna and other oceanic fish from the domestic fishing industry will increase over time in Fiji and vanuatu,butwillremainaboutthesameinSolomonIslandsanddecreaseovertimeinTimor-Leste.Thereasonisthat,inthefuture,concentrationsofskipjackandbigeyetunaarelikelytomovefurtherintotheeasternPacificOceanbecauseofclimatechange,whilethebiomassofadulttunawilldecreaseinthewestandcentralPacificOcean.6

3 AFADisapermanent,semipermanent,ortemporarystructureordevicemadefromanymaterialandusedtolurefish.Seehttp://www.fao.org/fishery/equipment/fad/en.

4 DetailsofthemethodologyappliedinthisstudyarediscussedinM.M.Dey,M.W.Rosegrant,K.Gosh,O.L.Chen,andR.A.Valmonte-Santos.2016.AnalysisoftheEconomicImpactofClimateChangeandClimateChangeAdaptationStrategiesforFisheriesSectorinPacificCoralTriangleCountries:Model,EstimationStrategy,andBaselineResults.Marine Policy. 67.pp.156–163.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2015.12.011.

5 Therespondentsfromthesurveysandfocusgroupdiscussionsweremembersofselectedfishingcommunities(fishersandfishfarmers)andlocalmarketsinSuvaandRaProvinceinFiji;HoniaraandIsabelprovinceinSolomonIslands;Dili,AtauroIsland,andLiquicadistrictinTimor-Leste;andPortVila,Siviri,andEspirituSantoIslandsinVanuatu;village/district/provincialandnationalgovernments;academia;nongovernmentorganizations;regionalandinternationalresearchagencies;andlocalclimatechange,economic,fisheries,andenvironmentalexperts.

6 Themodelusedconservativeestimatesoftheimpactsofclimatechangeontunacatch,usingtheSpatialEcosystemandPopulationDynamicsModelasareference.(FordetailsoftheSpatialEcosystemandPopulationDynamicsModel,seehttp://www.spc.int/OceanFish/en/ofpsection/ema/ecosystem-a-multispecies-modelling/seapodym/148-seapodym).Projectionsusedinthemodelarewithinsustainablelimits.

SeagrassfarminginAtauroIsland,Timor-Leste.

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FoodSecurityintheCoralTriangleofthePacificCountries

PilotfieldtesttilapiapondinNapaukvillage,Luganvilledistrict,Sanmaprovince,SantoIsland,Vanuatu.

the real prices of different fish groups are expected to increase over time in vanuatu, butforothercountriestherealprices,exceptthatoftunainFijiandthatofcoastalfinfishinTimor-Leste,arelikelytobeheldincheckduetoincreasedimports.

Per capita consumption of domestically produced fish will likely decrease. Overtime,fishexportsfromthefourcountriesareexpectedtodecreaseandfishimportsareexpectedtoincrease.Thiswillleadtoadeclineinpercapitaconsumptionofdomesticallyproducedfish,whichhasseriousnegativefoodsecurityimplicationsforthesecountries.

Fiji and Solomon Islands may become net importers of fish, withdomesticdemand(duetopopulationgrowthandhighpercapitaincomes)likelytosurpassdomesticsupply.InmanyPacificislandcountries,domesticpricesofsomefishspeciesarehigherthantheirworldmarketprices.Thereisariskthatforeigncountriesthatareabletoproducefisheriesandaquacultureproductsmoreefficientlymaytake

advantageofthissituationofhigherfishpricesandexporttheircheaperseafoodproductstothePacificislands.

Fisheries development strategies: country-specific positive impacts

Small-scale and subsistence fishers will most benefit from improved natural resources management. Acrossthefourcountries,improvedNRM(suchasMPAsandlocallymanagedmarineareas)willincreasecoastalfishproduction(orhaltitsdecline)andreducecoastalfishprices(orhaltitsincrease).Thiswillbenefitsmall-scaleandsubsistencefisheries,ruralcommunities,andpoorerhouseholdswhodependoncoastalfisheriesfortheirfoodsupplyandlivelihoods.NRMislikelytohavethehighestpositiveimpactinFiji.ThisisbecauseNRMwillhaltthedeclineincoastalfisheries,furtherexpandproductionofoceanicfisheries,andprovideaneteconomicgainhigherthanaquaculturealone.

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FocusgroupdiscussionswithdifferentstakeholdersinNamuaimadavillage,Navolaudistrict,Raprovince,Fiji.

communities in the coral triangle of the Pacific countries already feel the impacts of food insecurity.

Focusgroupdiscussionsrevealedthatfishersarefindingitdifficulttocatchenoughfishfromcoastalareas,eventhoughtheyarespendingmoretimefishing.Theyarelosingincomeduetobeingunabletofishduringcyclones,andarefurtherconstrainedbybeingunabletoaccessfishindeeperwatersduetotheirtraditionalfishinggearandboatcapacity.Vegetablegardensarebeingdestroyedbycyclonesandfloodingand,whenfoodisavailable,itisdifficulttoaccessbecauseoffloodsorlackoftransportation.

Foodinsecurityisalsoaffectingcommunityhealthandchildren’seducation.Participantsreportedthat(i)thehealthoffamilymembersispoorasaresultofinsufficientfood,imbalanceddiets,anddeterioratinghygiene;(ii)dependenceontraditionalmedicationisrisingasmoneyusuallyspentonmedicinesisbeingspentonfood;and(iii)spendingmoneyonchildren’seducationisoflowerprioritycomparedwithfoodnutritionandsecurity.Fishersarealsonowspendinglesstimewiththeirfamiliesbecausetheyneedtospendmoretimefishing.

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aquaculture development will contribute to food security, enhancedlivelihoods,andforeignexchangeearnings.While,generally,itisunlikelythataquaculturealonecouldmeetthegrowingdemandforfishinthesecountries,themodelfoundthataquacultureislikelytohaveahighpositiveimpactinVanuatu.ForTimor-Leste,aquacultureisexpectedtoaffectfreshwatersupplysubstantially(abouta150%increasein2050fromalowbasevalue).Aquaculturedevelopmentwillhaveasignificantpositiveimpactonthecountry’sfishconsumptionbecausetherealpriceoffreshwaterfishisexpectedtodecreaseovertimegivenitshighsupply.

deployment of low-cost inshore fish-aggregating devices is likely to have the highest positive impact on oceanic fish supply in Solomon Islands,decreasingthepriceoftunaandsubstantiallyenhancingthecountry’sfoodsecurity.Low-costinshoreFADsareaccessibletosubsistenceandsmall-scalefishers,therebyincreasingthedomesticproductionofoceanicfish.

returns on investments of fisheries development strategies are very high. Theeconomicwelfareanalysis,conductedbasedonmodelingresults,showthatthenationalneteconomicgainsduetothesestrategiesaresubstantial.Inmostcases,theyearlynetbenefitismorethan10–20-foldhigherthantherequiredannualinvestmentcost.Forexample,theestimatedyearlyneteconomicgainfrominvestmentinNRMinFijiisabout100timesoftheannualinvestmentcostand,inSolomonIslands,ayearlyinvestmentofabout$230,000onFADsisprojectedtogenerateanannualincomeofmorethan$5millionin2035.

Foreachcountry,thefollowingstrategiesshowthehighestreturnsoninvestmentin2050:

• Fiji:aquacultureplusNRM,followedbyNRM• SolomonIslands:FADs• Vanuatu:aquacultureplusNRMplusFADs• Timor-Leste:aquaculture,followedbyNRM

FoodSecurityintheCoralTriangleofthePacificCountries

Figure 1: national Level Economic gains resulting from climate change adaptation Strategies, 2035 and 2050

US$

mill

ion

25

20

15

10

5

-2035

FijiSolomon Islands

Timor-LesteVanuatu

AQ = aquacultureNRM = natural resources managementFAD = fish-aggregating device

AQ AQ NRM NRM AQ+NRM AQ+NRM FADs FADs NRM + FADs NRM + FADs AQ + NRM + FADs

AQ + NRM + FADs

2050 2035 2050 2035 2050 2035 2050 2035 2050 2035 2050

Source:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute.2016.Prospects and Adaptation Strategies for the Fisheries Sector under Climate Change in Pacific Coral Triangle Countries.Washington,DC.

concLuSIonSWithrisingpopulationandincomes,thedemandforfishisexpectedtoincreasesubstantiallyby2050,whiledomesticfishsupplyisprojectedtoslowduetoclimatechange,environmentaldegradation,andotherconstraints.Undercurrentconditions,Fiji,Timor-Leste,SolomonIslands,andVanuatuwillsufferfragilefoodsecurityconditionsinthefuture.Increasingthedomesticsupplyoffishinthesecountrieswillrequirereversingthenegativetrendsofcoastalfisheriesandincreasingthesupplyfromoceanicandfreshwatersystems.

Thestudyshowedthattheimpactsonfoodsecurityofeachfisheriesdevelopmentstrategyaregenerallypositiveandsignificant,butdifferbetweenfisheries,ecosystems,andcountries.Italsoshowedthatcurrentuseofthestrategiesistoosmalltohavemeaningfulimpactsonfoodsecurityinthefuture.Toupscalestrategyuse,itwillbeimportanttounderstandthespecificenablingconditionsneededineachcountry,andatwhatleveleachstrategywouldbeoptimalforfoodsecurityandsustainableinthelongterm.

Anumberofotheractionswerehighlightedinthestudythatcouldhelptoimprovefoodsecurityfromthefisheriessectorandthatwarrantfurtherconsideration.Theseactionsincludeprovidingbetterprocessing,storage,andtransportinfrastructureinsomecountries,andcreatingbetterdomesticaccesstothetunasupplythatisexpectedtoincreasewithclimatechange.

adb’s response. ADB’sregionaltechnicalassistanceprojectcontinuestoassisttheCoralTriangleofthePacificcountriestointroducemoreeffectivemanagementofcoastalandmarineresources,especiallythoseassociatedwithcoralreefecosystems.Thisistomaintaintheirproductivityoveralongerperiodoftime,whilebuildingtheirresiliencetoclimatechangeimpactsandhuman-inducedenvironmentalthreats.Theprojecthassupportedcapacity-buildingactivitiesonintegratedcoastalresourcesmanagement,includingonlegalandpolicyreforms.

Forinstance,inSolomonIslands,theprojectfacilitatedthedevelopmentandapprovaloftheMalaitaProvincialFisheriesOrdinance.GazettedinMay2015,theordinancesetsrulesforfisheriesmanagementanddevelopmentinMalaita,includingapermitssystem,developmentofcommunityfisheriesmanagementplans,andenforcement.ItprovidesfortheestablishmentofaFisheriesAdvisoryCommitteetoguidetheprovincialgovernmentonimplementationoftheordinance.TheprojectalsofacilitatedtheestablishmentoftwoMPAsinAtauroandBatugadeinTimor-Leste.Theirboundaries,settingupofanaquaticnaturalreserve,andregulatingtheirmanagementarecoveredinaministerialdiplomaissuedbytheMinistryofAgricultureandFisheriesinFebruary2015.

Climatechangeadaptationforresilience-buildinghasbeenemphasizedthroughtheimplementationofprojectactivities.Theapplicationoffish-aggregatingdevices,developmentofcommunity-basedresourcemanagementplans,andeffectivemanagementofMPAsarecentralintheongoingimplementationofactivitiesundertheproject.

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FIjI caSE StudYFiji’sfisheriessectorcontributestoboththecountry’sfoodsecurityandgrossdomesticproduct.Fisheriescanbegroupedintosixmaintypes:coastalsubsistencefishing,coastalcommercialfishing,offshorelocallybasedfishing,offshoreforeign-basedfishing,freshwaterfishing,andaquaculture.Fishproductionandvaluearehighestinthecoastalareas,andsmall-scaleandsubsistencefishersareheavilydependentonthecoastalfisheriesforfoodandincome.In2000–2008,about1.7%ofthetotalgrossdomesticproductwassupportedbythefisheriessector(Gillett2009;andAhmedetal2011).

FisheriesdevelopmentstrategiesinFijiincludeNRMpractices(e.g.,MPAs,locallymanagedmarineareas,andtheridge-to-reefconcept);alternativelivelihooddevelopment;enforcementoffisheriesregulations;low-costinshoreFADs;andaquaculture.Themodelconsideredthreescenarios:(1)aquaculture,(2)NRM(specificallyMPAs,locallymanagedmarineareas,andFADs),and(3)acombinationofaquacultureandNRM.

What is going to happen to Fiji’s fisheries under baseline conditions?

Themodelprojectsthefollowinglikelysituationsto2050:

• Overall,domesticproductionwillgrowatanegligiblerate,whiledomesticdemandwillrise(withhigher-incomegrowthbeingaccompaniedbyahigherriseindemand).

• Oceanicproductionwillgrowtosomeextentandsupplyfromfreshwaterareaswillexpandsubstantially,thoughitssharewillremainsmall.

• Coastalproductionwilldeclineovertimeduetoclimatechangeandotherimpacts,whilethedemandforcoastalfishwillincrease

further.Thishasseriousfoodsecurityimplications,giventhatpoorerhouseholdsmostlyrelyoncoastalfinfishfortheirfishconsumptionneeds.

can fisheries development strategies help to improve food security?

Yes.Themodelshowedthefollowingscenariosarelikelywiththefisheriesdevelopmentstrategies:

• Pricesoffreshwaterfinfishandfreshwaterinvertebratesareprojectedtodecreasewiththeadoptionofaquaculturetechnologies.Giventhatmostofthefreshwaterproductionisfordomesticconsumption,thisislikelytoimprovefoodsecurity.

• TheadoptionofvariousNRMstrategies(suchasMPAs)isexpectedtohaltproductiondeclinesincoastalfisheries,andtofurtherexpandtheproductionofoceanicfisheries.Thisisimportantforfoodsecuritybecausesmall-scaleandsubsistencefishersdependonthesecoastalfisheries.

What other impacts might the fisheries development strategies have?

• Indirectly,increasedincomefromaquaculturewillincreasetunacatch,resultinginhigherpricesandmarketdemandfortunaandotheroceanicfish.

• TheadoptionofNRMadaptationstrategieswillreduceFiji’simportoffish/seafoodsubstantially,whichwilllikelyreducetheburdenonforeignexchange.

• Thenationalleveleconomicgainsfromtheadoptionofthestrategieswillbesubstantial.Theywerecalculatedannuallyat$2.6millionforaquaculture,$14.5millionforNRM,and$16.2millionforaquacultureplusNRM(in2009USdollarsconstantprice)in2050.

Figure F-1: Projected Production and consumption of different Fish groups in Fiji for 2035 and 2050 under two baseline Scenarios, with 1% and 2% annual growth rates of real Per capita Income.

Freshwater consumption

Freshwater production

Coastal production

Oceanic production

Coastal consumption

Oceanic consumption

0 10 20 30 40mt (x 1,000)

2050 - high2035 - high2050 - medium

2035 - medium2009

50 60 70 80

Source:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute.2016.Prospects and Adaptation Strategies for the Fisheries Sector under Climate Change in Pacific Coral Triangle Countries. Washington,DC.

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SoLoMon ISLandS caSE StudYFisheriesresourcesplayamajorroleinthenationaleconomyandtofoodsecurityinSolomonIslands.Therearefourbroadcategoriesoffisheries:industrialoffshorecapture(foreign-basedandlocallyordomestic-based),coastalcapture(subsistenceandcommercial),freshwatercapture,andaquaculture.Foreignfleetsdominateoffshorecapturefisheries,andtheircatchesareprimarilyforexportmarkets.Coastalcapturefisheriesarethemostimportantsourceoffishsupplyfordomesticconsumptioninthecountry,andcoastalsubsistencefisheriesareintegraltofoodsecurityandlivelihoodoftheruralpopulationofSolomonIslands.SolomonIslandsiscurrentlyimplementingthreemainfisheriesdevelopmentstrategies,andtheywereconsideredinthemodelsasfollows:(1)aquaculture;(2)NRMapproaches,particularlyMPAs;and(3)low-costinshoreFADs.

What is going to happen to Solomon Island’s fisheries under baseline conditions?

Themodelprojectsthefollowinglikelysituationsto2050:

• Overall,thedomesticsupplyoffishwillincreasemarginally.Therewillbesomeincreaseinsupplyfromoceanicandfreshwatersystems,butsupplyfromcoastalfisheries(mostimportantfordomesticconsumptionandforsubsistencefishers)islikelytodecreaseovertime,resultinginreducedfoodsecurity.

• Demandfordifferenttypesoffishwillincreaseasaresultofanincreaseinpopulationandincomes,andamajorpartofthisincreaseddemandwillbeforoceanicspeciessuchastuna.

• Totaldemandislikelytosurpasstotaldomesticfishproduction.IfSolomonIslandscannotcatchmoreoceanicfishthanotherwiseharvestedbyforeignvessels,thecountrymayhavetoimportfishinlargevolumestomeettheprojecteddemand.

can fisheries development strategies help to improve food security?

Yes.Theuseoflow-costinshoreFADs,inparticular,isexpectedtosignificantlyenhancethecountry’sfisherieseconomyandfoodsecurity.ThemodelfoundthatemployingtheseFADswilldecreasetherealpriceoftunain2035and2050and,evenwithhighergrowthinpercapitaincome,reducetunapricesby2050.ThisisimportantgiventhehighcontributionoftunatofishandseafoodconsumptioninSolomonIslands.

Low-costinshoreFADsarealsoexpectedtosignificantlyreducethecountry’slikelydependenceonfishimports,asareNRMstrategiesbecauseoftheirpositiveeffectonproduction.TheroleofFADswillbeevenmoreimportantifthecountry’spercapitarealincomerisesatafasterrate.

ThemodelalsoprojectsthattheadoptionofNRMstrategieswilllikelyhaveapositiveimpactoncoastalfishsupply,andwillhalttheriseofcoastalfinfishprices.However,FADsmayhaveanegativeimpactoncoastalfishsupplybecauseofthesubstitutioneffectbetweencoastalandoceanfishspecies.Thiswouldnegativelyaffectsubsistencefishers.

Aquaculturedevelopmentwillalsoreducetherealpriceofcoastalinvertebrates,andincreaseconsumptionoffreshwaterfishin2035and2050.Thisimpactwillincreaseovertimewithincome.

What other impacts might the fisheries development strategies have?

Thenationallevelneteconomicgainsfromthestrategieswillbesubstantial.Theywerecalculatedannuallyat$0.37millionforaquaculture,$10.08millionforFADs,and$2.57millionforNRMstrategies(in2009USdollarsconstantprice)in2050.

Figure S-1: Projected Production and consumption of different Fish groups in Solomon Islands for 2035 and 2050 under two baseline Scenarios, with 2% and 3% annual growth rates of real Per capita Income

Freshwater consumption

Freshwater production

Coastal production

Oceanic production

Coastal consumption

Oceanic consumption

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000mt (x 10,000)

2050 - high2035 - high2050 - medium

2035 - medium2006-2009

2,500 3,000 3,500

Source:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute.2016.Prospects and Adaptation Strategies for the Fisheries Sector under Climate Change in Pacific Coral Triangle Countries. Washington,DC.

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tIMor-LEStE caSE StudY InformationonthefisheriessectorofTimor-Lesteisverylimitedasthecountryonlygaineditsindependencein2002and,priortothis,mostinformationanddatawerehighlyaggregatedfromIndonesia.Assuch,assessingTimor-Leste’sfisheriessectorisdifficult.

UnlikeFiji,SolomonIslands,andVanuatu,Timor-Lestehasonlytwoislandsandasmallerexclusiveeconomiczoneof72,000squarekilometers.Thecountry’smostdominantfishcategoryiscoastalfisheriesforsmall-scalefishingactivities,duetotheabsenceofdomesticcommercialfishingvesselsexploringoffshorefishinggrounds.In2008,Timor-Leste’sfisheriessectoremployed7,600people.Themodelconsideredthreefisheriesdevelopmentstrategies:(1)aquaculture,(2)NRMwithemphasisonMPA,and(3)acombinationofaquacultureplusNRM.

What is going to happen to timor-Leste’s fisheries under baseline conditions?

Themodelprojectsthefollowinglikelysituationsto2050:

• Totalfishproductionwillincreaseonlymarginally,whiletotalfishdemandwillrisesubstantiallyduetogrowthinpopulationandincomes.Thisimpliesthatthecountrywillhavetoimportmorefishtofillthisincreasingdeficitindomesticfishsupply.

• Fishsuppliesfromoceanicandcoastalecosystemsarelikelytodecreaseduring2010–2050.Onlyfreshwaterecosystemswillbeabletosupplymorefishinthefuture.Giventhatoceanicandcoastalfisheriessupplyabout94%ofcurrentfishconsumptioninTimor-Leste,thisprojectedfishsupplyscenariohasseriousfoodsecurityimplicationsforthecountry.

can fisheries development strategies help to improve food security?

• NRMislikelytoincreasecoastalandfreshwaterfishproduction,andtheaquaculturedevelopmentstrategyisexpectedtoincreasefreshwaterfishproductionbyabout100%in2035andbyabout150%in2050.

• Aquaculturedevelopmentisexpectedtoreducetherealpriceoffreshwaterfish,butraisetherealpriceofotherfishcategories,mainlybecauseofthehigherincomesassociatedwithaquaculturedevelopment.

• Aquaculturegrowthwillincreaseincome,resultinginhigherdemandforcoastalfishandseafoodandlowerdemandforfreshwaterfish.TheseeffectstogethermayneutralizesomepositiveimpactsofthecombinedaquacultureplusNRMstrategyonfreshwaterproduction.Giventhatthefreshwaterecosystemsuppliesfishfordomesticconsumptiononly,theaquacultureplusNRMstrategymaynothaveanyadditiveeffectonfreshwaterfishconsumption.

• OnlyaquaculturedevelopmentwillhaveanysignificantandpositiveimpactonfishconsumptioninTimor-Leste,mainlythroughincreasedconsumptionoffreshwaterfish.TheNRMstrategyisnotexpectedtohaveasignificantimpactonfishconsumptioninthecountry,butratherwillreducefishimports.

What other impacts might the fisheries development strategies have?

Estimatednational-levelannualeconomicgainsresultingfromthestrategieswillrangefrom$0.4millionfromNRM,$1.2millionfromaquaculture,and$1.6millionfromaquacultureplusNRM(in2009USdollarsconstantprice)in2050.

Figure t-1: Projected Production and consumption of Fish groups in Fiji for 2035 and 2050 under two baseline Scenarios, with 2% and 3% annual growth rates of real Per capita Income

2050 - high2035 - high2050 - medium

2035 - medium2009

Freshwater consumption

Freshwater production

Coastal production

Oceanic production

Coastal consumption

Oceanic consumption

mt (x 1,000)0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Source:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI).2016.Prospects and Adaptation Strategies for the Fisheries Sector under Climate Change in Pacific Coral Triangle Countries. Washington,DC.

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vanuatu caSE StudYAmongtheMelanesiancountries,Vanuatuhasthesmallesttotalwaterareaandexclusiveeconomiczone.Vanuatu’sfisheriescanbegroupedintocoastalcommercialfisheries,coastalsubsistencefisheries,offshoreforeign-basedfisheries,offshorelocallybasedordomesticfisheries,freshwaterfisheries,andaquaculture.Thehighest-valuefishharvestinVanuatuisincoastalsubsistencefisheries.CoastalfinfishandtunaarethetwomostimportantsourcesoffishandseafoodinVanuatu,contributing~77%ofcurrentconsumption,and~72%ofthecountry’sruralhouseholdsinvolvedinsomeformoffishing.

Vanuatuhasadoptedcoastalandfreshwateraquaculture(coastalandfreshwater);NRM(ridge-to-reef,regulations,MPAs);andlow-costinshoreFADs.Themodelconsidered(1)NRMplusFADs,and(2)aquaculture.

What is going to happen to vanuatu’s fisheries under baseline conditions?

Themodelprojectsthefollowinglikelysituationsto2050:

• Productionofoceanicfishisexpectedtoincrease,butproductionofcoastalfishisprojectedtodecline.Giventhatmanyofthepoorerhouseholdsrelyoncoastalfisheriesfortheirconsumptionneeds,thislikelyscenariohasseriousfoodsecurityimplications.

• Thoughtheconsumptionofoceanicfishisexpectedtoriseatafasterratethananyothersector,theoceanicfisheriessectorwillcontinuetobeanetexporter.Withgrowthinpopulationandincome,oceanicfishdemandmayincreaseby~5timesin2050.

Figure v-1: Projected Production and consumption of different Fish groups in vanuatu for 2035 and 2050 under two baseline Scenarios, with 2% and 3% annual growth rates of real Per capita Income

2050 - high2035 - high2050 - medium

2035 - medium2009

Freshwater consumption

Freshwater production

Coastal production

Oceanic production

Coastal consumption

Oceanic consumption

mt (x 1,000)0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Source:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute.2016.Prospects and Adaptation Strategies for the Fisheries Sector under Climate Change in Pacific Coral Triangle Countries. Washington,DC.

• Vanuatuwillhavetoimportcoastalfishtomeettheincreasingdemandfrompopulationandincomegrowth.Demandforfreshwaterfishwillalsoexceeddomesticproduction.

• Totalfishconsumptionwillrisesubstantially,butthecountrywillremainanetexporterby2050.

can fisheries development strategies help to improve food security?

Yes.ThemodelshowedthattheadoptionofNRMstrategiesandlow-costinshoreFADstogetherwoulddecreasethepricesoftuna,coastalfinfish,coastalinvertebrates,andfreshwaterfinfishin2035.CoastalfinfishandtunaarethetwomostimportantsourcesoffishandseafoodinVanuatuand,becausecoastalfinfishiswidelyconsumedbyVanuatu’spoorerhouseholds,thisstrategyislikelytohaveapositiveimpactontheseconsumers.Thisstrategywillalsoincreasedemandforallcategoriesoffishin2050,andincreaseconsumptionthroughexpectedreductionsintherealpriceofthesefishcategories.However,withitscurrentpaceofimplementation,itwillnotbeabletohalttheriseoffishpricesin2050.Aquaculturedevelopmentwouldalsoprovidehigherincomes,leadingtoincreaseddemandfortunaandotheroceanicfish.

What other impacts might the fisheries development strategies have?

• Adoptionoflow-costinshoreFADsplusNRMwillhavethehighestpositiveimpactonoceanicfish,increasingsupplybyabout19%–20%in2050.

• Thenationalleveleconomicgainsfromtheadoptionofthestrategieswillbesubstantial.Theywerecalculatedannuallyat$4.5millionforaquaculture,$35millionforFADsplusNRM,and$38millionforallthree(in2009USdollarsconstantprice)in2050.

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