View
32
Download
0
Category
Tags:
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
“Forecasting” What it’s really all about…. By Laurie Lofgren Vice President Planning & Forecasting Warnaco Intimate Apparel. Warnaco – Strong Brands. Sportswear. Intimate Apparel. Swimwear. Warnaco – Diverse Customers. Department Stores. Specialty Retailers. Chain Stores. Mass - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
“Forecasting”What it’s really all
about…
“Forecasting”What it’s really all
about…
By Laurie LofgrenBy Laurie Lofgren
Vice President Planning & Forecasting Vice President Planning & Forecasting Warnaco Intimate ApparelWarnaco Intimate Apparel
SwimwearSwimwearIntimateIntimate ApparelApparel SportswearSportswear
Warnaco – Strong BrandsWarnaco – Strong Brands
DepartmentDepartmentStoresStores
SpecialtySpecialtyRetailersRetailers
ChainChainStoresStores
MassMassMerchantsMerchants
MembershipMembershipClubsClubs InternationalInternational
CanadaCanada
MexicoMexico
EuropeEurope
R
AsiaAsia
Warnaco – Diverse CustomersWarnaco – Diverse Customers
Tools Process & Disciplines
S&OP Collaboration Continuous Improvement
Tools Process & Disciplines
S&OP Collaboration Continuous Improvement
Main FocusMain Focus
ToolsTools
Build the foundation System is the enabler Information = Visibility
Build the foundation System is the enabler Information = Visibility
Point of Sale Analysis
Retail Planning
Demand Planning
S&OP
Inventory Planning
Core Systems
Core Systems
”Opportunity
for W
arnaco”
System “POS Analysis” Why Invest?
System “POS Analysis” Why Invest?
Increase Visibility Increase Sales Increase ROI
Increase Visibility Increase Sales Increase ROI
Implement VMIImplement VMIImplement VMIImplement VMI
Optimize Optimize AssortmentsAssortments
Optimize Optimize AssortmentsAssortments
Reduce Reduce MarkdownsMarkdowns
Reduce Reduce MarkdownsMarkdowns
Improve Sell Improve Sell
ThroughThroughImprove Sell Improve Sell
ThroughThrough
Maximize Maximize ProductivityProductivity
Maximize Maximize ProductivityProductivity
POS Analysis #1
Product LifecycleAccount
RankTY
SalesProj Fall
Sls Curr
OH TY Target
Inv. %
Variance
Need vs. Target
Inv. Target Inv $
Replenishment A 6,825 34,088 17,738 22,725 22% 4,988 $595,200B 12,600 62,963 38,213 48,413 21% 10,238 $1,273,388C 20,775 103,875 77,363 86,550 11% 9,188 $2,281,013D 25,088 125,438 120,375 119,438 -1% -938 $3,148,388E 15,938 79,613 100,388 88,425 -13% -11,925 $2,342,850F 6,900 34,425 61,838 49,163 -26% -12,675 $1,304,363
LV 3,863 19,313 36,450 38,625 6% 2,175 $1,025,288Replenishment Total 91,913 459,638 452,325 453,375 0% 1,050 $11,970,488Newness A 3,038 15,188 7,388 10,125 27% 2,738 $274,988
B 5,325 26,625 17,738 20,475 13% 2,738 $555,413C 8,550 42,825 35,025 35,700 2% 675 $970,688D 9,750 48,713 50,363 46,388 -9% -3,975 $1,267,875E 5,738 28,688 37,875 31,875 -19% -6,038 $876,188F 2,438 12,188 22,013 17,400 -27% -4,613 $479,738
LV 1,275 6,300 13,200 12,600 -5% -563 $347,025Newness Total 36,113 180,525 183,600 174,600 -5% -9,038 $4,771,838Runnout A 38 263 150 38 -75% -113 $900
B 150 750 375 75 -80% -263 $2,325C 300 1,463 750 188 -75% -563 $4,650D 525 2,700 1,125 263 -77% -825 $6,938E 375 1,838 1,275 300 -76% -938 $7,875F 225 1,200 863 225 -74% -638 $5,325
LV 113 638 525 150 -71% -413 $3,338Runnout Total 1,763 8,813 5,025 1,238 -75% -3,750 $31,350Dropped A 38 225 225 38 -83% -150 $1,425
B 113 525 413 113 -73% -300 $2,700C 338 1,763 863 225 -74% -638 $5,738D 675 3,450 1,200 300 -75% -900 $7,913E 713 3,600 1,275 300 -76% -938 $8,475F 638 3,150 1,238 300 -76% -938 $8,363
LV 450 2,175 563 150 -73% -413 $3,750Dropped Total 3,000 14,925 5,775 1,463 -75% -4,350 $38,400Grand Total 142,313 711,638 732,450 678,450 -8% -54,000 $18,229,613
Key Independent Store AccountInventory Analysis by Door Rank
Maximize Maximize ProductivityProductivity
Maximize Maximize ProductivityProductivity
“Independent Store Account”
Imbalance by door grade
POS Analysis #2
May-Fed Door TypeAccount
RankTY STDSales
LY STDSales
% Sls TY vs LY
Avg Wkly
OH TY
Avg Wkly
OH LY % OH
TY vs LY Turn TY
Turn LY
Retailer #1 Legacy Doors A ++ 18,263 18,525 -1% 49,200 41,738 18% 1.9 2.2A + 6,113 6,975 -12% 12,788 11,025 16% 2.4 3.2A 21,113 21,263 -1% 62,325 53,700 16% 1.7 2.0B 18,563 18,413 1% 64,125 49,725 29% 1.4 1.9C 9,488 9,188 3% 35,813 29,213 23% 1.3 1.6D 2,663 1,763 50% 10,388 6,225 67% 1.3 1.4
Comp Total 76,163 76,163 0% 234,675 191,588 22% 1.6 2.0New Doors A + 2,738 1,425 91% 7,913 5,625 40% 1.7 1.3
A 938 750 26% 2,813 2,250 24% 1.7 1.7B 788 338 142% 2,250 1,050 112% 1.8 1.6C 4,125 1,988 107% 17,025 6,900 146% 1.2 1.4D 375 225 59% 1,650 1,088 50% 1.2 1.1
Walk Over Total 9,000 4,763 89% 31,650 16,950 86% 1.4 1.4Retailer #1 Total 85,163 80,888 5% 266,288 208,538 28% 1.6 1.9Retailer #2 Account #1 A + 1,275 863 49% 3,263 1,688 95% 1.9 2.5
A 6,150 3,938 56% 25,200 12,375 104% 1.2 1.6B 5,250 3,338 57% 23,438 10,725 118% 1.1 1.6C 3,638 2,100 72% 18,750 8,438 122% 1.0 1.2D 450 263 79% 2,775 1,463 87% 0.8 0.9
Account #1 Total 16,725 10,500 59% 73,425 34,688 112% 1.1 1.5Account #2 A + 2,438 1,425 71% 4,088 2,813 47% 3.0 2.5
A 4,425 2,963 50% 11,438 8,325 37% 1.9 1.8B 3,638 2,138 69% 10,013 6,600 52% 1.8 1.6C 3,713 2,363 57% 12,788 8,888 44% 1.5 1.3D 1,050 413 154% 3,300 2,475 34% 1.6 0.8
Account #2 Total 15,263 9,300 64% 41,625 29,100 43% 1.8 1.6Retailer #2 Total 32,888 19,800 66% 117,638 63,750 84% 1.4 1.6Grand Total 118,050 100,688 17% 383,925 272,325 41% 1.5 1.8
Key Department Store Retailer #1 vs. Retailer #2 Sales & Inventory Comparison
“Key Department Store – Retailer #1
vs. Retailer #2” differing results by
account
Optimize Optimize AssortmentsAssortments
Optimize Optimize AssortmentsAssortments
POS Analysis #3
Geo Region Corp Rank Account Shipped Sales
Sales per
DoorInv. Per
Door % Sold
Northeast A+++ DEPT STORE 215 215 110 110 100%
A+++ Total 215 215 110 110 100%
A++ DEPT STORE 1,385 1,185 33 40 86%
A++ Total 1,385 1,185 33 40 86%
A+ CHAIN STORE 1,485 965 19 30 65%
DEPT STORE 1,600 1,170 15 20 73%
A+ Total 3,090 2,140 17 25 69%
A CHAIN STORE 2,515 1,590 12 20 63%
DEPT STORE 60 45 11 15 73%
A Total 2,575 1,635 12 20 63%
B CHAIN STORE 670 385 7 10 58%
DEPT STORE 240 160 8 10 67%
B Total 910 550 7 10 60%
C CHAIN STORE 340 180 5 10 53%
DEPT STORE 25 10 5 10 38%
C Total 365 190 5 10 52%
D CHAIN STORE 270 115 5 10 42%
D Total 270 115 5 10 42%
Northeast Total 8,815 6,025 14 20 68%
Key Collection Style # 1000 - Fashion Color Sell-thru9/25/05 thru 11/25/05 Deliveries, First 17 weeks of selling from Intro Date
“Dept vs. Chain Store”
Fashion Color sell thru
Reduce Reduce MarkdownsMarkdowns
Reduce Reduce MarkdownsMarkdowns
System “Demand Planning”
Why invest?
System “Demand Planning”
Why invest?
Reduce Inventory Improve Service Increase Collaboration
Reduce Inventory Improve Service Increase Collaboration
Statistical Statistical Forecast Forecast based on based on Best FitBest Fit
Pyramid Pyramid based on based on Consumer Consumer SpendingSpending
Collect Collect “ALL” “ALL”
Relevant Relevant InformationInformation
Provides Provides Flexibility Flexibility
Easy To UseEasy To Use
DS FM
Historical Bookings Seasonality Curve
Retail Inventory
Account Forecast
System & Adjusted Forecast
DSFM View #1
Account Collaboration
POS History POS Based System Forecast
Statistical Based
Forecast
DSFM View #2
MTD Shipments & Orders
Current Open Bulk Orders
Historical Cancellations
Historical Shipments
Historical Door Distribution
DSFM View #3
Collect all relevant
information
Historical Forecast
Forecast Accuracy
DSFM View #4
Utilize Forecast Accuracy
? ? ?
Customer Forecast – Unit Receipt Plan
DSFM View #5
Account Collaboration
System “Inventory Planning”
Why invest?
System “Inventory Planning”
Why invest?
Reduce Inventory Improve Service Collaboration
(Capacity Planning)
Reduce Inventory Improve Service Collaboration
(Capacity Planning)
““Dynamic” Dynamic” Inventory Inventory PlanningPlanning
Daily Daily Forecast Forecast UpdatesUpdates
Automatic Automatic PO PO
GenerationGeneration
Exception Exception ReportingReporting
DS RP
Reporting Systems
Provide Visibility
Reporting Systems
Provide Visibility
Emphasize ReportingEmphasize Reporting
DSRPDSRP
DS StoresDS StoresS&OPS&OP
Sales Sales PlanninPlanningg
DSFMDSFM
A successful implementation….A successful implementation…. Clear Business Plan
Detailed Project Plan
Allocate the Resources
Prioritize & Execute
Training & Training
Continuous Refinement
Clear Business Plan
Detailed Project Plan
Allocate the Resources
Prioritize & Execute
Training & Training
Continuous Refinement
Process&
Disciplines
Process&
Disciplines
Achieve results S&OP a must
Achieve results S&OP a must
S&OPWhat does it mean at Warnaco?
S&OPWhat does it mean at Warnaco?
Formalized & Structured Process Occurs on a Monthly basis Synchronize “all” Plans Cross functional ownership
Formalized & Structured Process Occurs on a Monthly basis Synchronize “all” Plans Cross functional ownership
2006 2006Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
2 3 4 5 6
9 10 11 12 13
Demand Meeting
16 17 18 19 20
Supply Supply Planning Meeting
Run S&OP Plans23 24 25 26 27
S&OP
Run S&OP Plans Meeting
Supply Planning Process
Demand & Supply Reconciliation
Meeting
OCTOBER
Month End RollDemand Planning Process
Demand Planning Process
“Utilize” Forecast Accuracy Collaboration with key accounts Reconcile demand & production Synchronize “all” plans Monthly Demand Meetings
“Utilize” Forecast Accuracy Collaboration with key accounts Reconcile demand & production Synchronize “all” plans Monthly Demand Meetings
S&OP ProcessDemand Planning Must Do’s
S&OP ProcessDemand Planning Must Do’s
S&OP Process Collaboration &Communication
S&OP Process Collaboration &Communication
Synchronize & Reconcile
Replenishment OTB Demand Plan Financial Production Capacity Inventory
Joint Ownership & Smart Decision Making
General Mgmt Sales Marketing Operations
Involvement at all levels
Synchronize & Reconcile
Replenishment OTB Demand Plan Financial Production Capacity Inventory
Joint Ownership & Smart Decision Making
General Mgmt Sales Marketing Operations
Involvement at all levels
S&OP Disciplines Warnaco USIA
S&OP Disciplines Warnaco USIA
Standard Operating procedures Cut to Order - New & Fashion Opp’s Confirm – New Doors & Model Builds
Critical Principles
One Number Forecast All Demand is Forecasted Supply = Demand
Standard Operating procedures Cut to Order - New & Fashion Opp’s Confirm – New Doors & Model Builds
Critical Principles
One Number Forecast All Demand is Forecasted Supply = Demand
S&OPWhy is Warnaco doing this?
S&OPWhy is Warnaco doing this?
Ensure Ongoing Improvements Establish “Best Practices” Informed Decision Making Increase teamwork
Ensure Ongoing Improvements Establish “Best Practices” Informed Decision Making Increase teamwork
Success Stories for Warnaco USIA
in 2006!
Success Stories for Warnaco USIA
in 2006!
Improved Service Increased Inventory Turn Reduced SLOB’s Increased Sales
Improved Service Increased Inventory Turn Reduced SLOB’s Increased Sales
What’s Next for Demand Planning at Warnaco?
What’s Next for Demand Planning at Warnaco?
System Roll Out Europe Expand Account Collaboration Advanced utilization POS Roll out Best Practices Evolve S&OP
System Roll Out Europe Expand Account Collaboration Advanced utilization POS Roll out Best Practices Evolve S&OP
Tools Process & Disciplines Collaboration Continuous Improvement
Tools Process & Disciplines Collaboration Continuous Improvement
Main FocusMain Focus
Q & AQ & A
Recommended