Forest sector dynamics: lessons for marine resources?

Forest sector dynamics:lessons for marine resources?

Two related, but distinct, issues

• Deforestation: conversion of forests to other land uses

• Depletion: harvesting more timber than grows

Global deforestation

• Between 1990 and 2000, 94 million hectares of forest were lost– About two Californias

Deforestation is not occurring everywhere

Region

Annual change in forest cover

Countries / Countries that

lost forest cover Africa -0.78% 56 / 41

S. America -0.41% 14 / 10

Oceania -0.18% 20 / 6

N. & C. America -0.10% 34 / 13

Asia -0.07% 47 / 15

Europe +0.08% 38 / 3

• Forest cover increased during 1990-2000 in the world’s most populous countries, China and India– And also in the U.S.

Deforestation rate vs. Income

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000

Per capita GDP (US$, 1997)

De

fore

sta

tio

n r

ate

(%

/ye

ar,

19

90

-20

00

)

Why is the deforestation rate lower in richer countries?

Why is the deforestation rate lower in richer countries?

• Because they are less dependent on agriculture, which uses land

Why is the deforestation rate lower in richer countries?

• Because they are less dependent on agriculture, which uses land

• Countries’ economies undergo structural changes as they grow– The share of agriculture decreases, while the shares of

manufacturing and services increase

– People leave rural areas and move to cities

– Agriculture intensifies

– Deforestation slows down and may reverse

Why is the deforestation rate lower in richer countries?

• Because they are less dependent on agriculture, which uses land

• Countries’ economies undergo structural changes as they grow– The share of agriculture decreases, while the shares of

manufacturing and services increase– People leave rural areas and move to cities– Agriculture intensifies– Deforestation slows down and may reverse

• Forest conservation: byproduct of development

The world is not running out of wood

• Industrialized countries harvest less timber than they grow– Harvest from all sources is 79% of growth in

North America, and 59% in Europe

• Harvest exceeds growth mainly in low-income countries

Myth:Consumption in North

is driving depletion in South

Myth:Consumption in North

is driving depletion in South

• Most of wood harvested in developing countries is fuelwood, not industrial roundwood (only 21%)

Myth:Consumption in North

is driving depletion in South

• Most of wood harvested in developing countries is fuelwood, not industrial roundwood (only 21%)

• Most of industrial roundwood is consumed within countries where it is harvested, not exported (only 20%), directly or indirectly

Myth:Consumption in North

is driving depletion in South

• Most of wood harvested in developing countries is fuelwood, not industrial roundwood (only 21%)

• Most of industrial roundwood is consumed within countries where it is harvested, not exported (only 20%), directly or indirectly

• Developing countries import more industrial roundwood and wood products than they export (by 18%)

Property rights and scarcity

Property rights and scarcity

• Big institutional difference between forests in North and South: property rights

Property rights and scarcity

• Big institutional difference between forests in North and South: property rights

• 20th Century: as timber stocks in old-growth forests depleted, price of timber rose

• In response:1. More investment in management of second-growth forests

2. More investment in plantations

• Today, < 20% of timber (globally) comes from old-growth forests

Property rights and scarcity

• Big institutional difference between forests in North and South: property rights

• 20th Century: as timber stocks in old-growth forests depleted, price of timber rose

• In response:1. More investment in management of second-growth forests

2. More investment in plantations

• Today, < 20% of timber (globally) comes from old-growth forests

• Cheap wood from plantations makes logging of natural forests less profitable

– Unintentional conservation