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Four future scenarios for businesses
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Contents
Preface 4
Introduction 6
Anuncertainworld:thedrivingforces 8
CapriciousConsent 12
AgileAntipoles 22
SlowStrife 32
FlowinglyForward 42
Fourscenarios,evenmorepossibilities 52
References 54
Colophonanddisclaimer 55
Rabobank Nederland Economic Research Department Hans Stegeman Danijela Piljic
Outlook2011 3
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Beinganentrepreneurmeanslookingahead.Theimportantquestionisnotjustwhatdoestheclient
wantnow,butwhatdoes theclientexpect fromyourcompany inthefuture.Therearemanyotherdevelopmentswhichcanaffecthowyourunyourcompanybothnowandlater.Someoftheseareknown
tous.Forinstance,populationageingandtheresultingexpectedtightnessonthelabourmarket.Consider
alsothedemandsthatsocietyandtheenvironmentwillincreasinglyplaceonyourbusinessstrategy.But
therearealsomanyuncertainvariables,andtheonlythingwecanbesureaboutisthattheywilldeter-
mineyoursituationandoursinthefuture.Unknownquantities,suchasenergysources,thedepletionof
naturalresourcesandclimatechange,whicharedifficulttoanticipate.
Howwillourworldlookin2030?Thisisaquestionthathasbeenoccupyingoureconomistsforsome
time.Whichcountrieswillformthemajorpowerblocksintwentyyearstime?WilltheEuropeanUnion
stillexist?Willtheeurobeaglobalcurrencyormerelyavaguememory?Willwehaveapeacefulsociety,
orwilltherebeanotherColdWar?Willtherebeenoughfoodtoprovideforagrowingglobalpopulation?
Willwehavefoundadequatealternativestothefinitesupplyoffossilfuels?Andwhataboutoureconomic
structure?WillthegrowthofservicesintheNetherlandshavecontinued?Andhowsustainablewillour
economybe?
Ofcoursenobodyknowsthefullanswertothesequestions.Yettogainsomeunderstandingofthefuture,
wehavedevelopedfourpossiblescenariosofhowthewouldcouldlookintwentyyears.Ourprojections
revolvearoundtwovariables:conflictversusharmonyandevolutionversusrevolution.Theinteraction
ofthesetwovariableshasresultedinfourscenarios,eachofwhichsketchesapossiblestateoftheworld
in2030.
Capricious Consentisthescenarioofarapidlychangingworldwithoptimalcooperationandadynamic
society.Agile Antipolesisaworldwhereconflictsatalllevelsgohandinhandwithtechnologicalbreak-
throughs. Slow Strife depicts a sharply polarised world, with little forward movement. And finally,
Flowingly Forwardisaworldbasedonconsensus,characterisedbygradual,thoughsteadydevelopment.
Itisnotimpliedthatthesefourscenariosconstitutethe only possibilitiesfortheworldin2030.They
merelyprovideahandletotakeapeepintothefuture,andillustrateinsofaraspossible,theextremesof
whatmightbereasonablypossible.TobemoreoptimisticthanCapricious Consentormorepessimistic
thanAgile Antipoleswouldbeunrealistic.Youmayperhapsfeelaconnectionwithoneofthefourscena-
rios-orevenmorethanone.Atanyrate,wehopethisstudywillhelpyoutoreflectonyourlongterm
4 Fourfuturescenariosforbusinesses
Preface
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strategy.Oratleasttofacethefuturewithcourage,eventhoughnoteveryscenariopaintsaprettypicture.
Andeachscenariocontainschallenges-someofwhichyoumaywellhaveanticipatedalready.Becauseaswe have said:being an entrepreneurmeans looking ahead. Iwish youwisdom and success in this
challenge.
Piet Moerland
ChairmanoftheExecutiveBoard
RabobankNederland
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Businesses intheNetherlands are facinga numberof
strategic challenges in the years ahead. Populationageing,theadvanceofChinaandtheemergenceofother
countries, ICTdevelopmentsandenergy andenviron-
mentalissueswillallexertsomedegreeofinfluenceon
thesphereofactivityofDutchbusinessesinthecoming
decades.Theextentofthisinfluenceis,however,uncer-
tain. Consequently, there is a need tocreate a clearer
pictureofallthevariablesandpossibilities.Wheremight
theseleadto:Whatarethelimits?Whatisbeyondthe
boundsofpossibility? And all thingsconsidered, how
canbusinesses best actto anticipate thesekeyuncer-
tainties?
IN2030isascenariostudythatdepictshowthesitua-
tionmightbeforbusinessesin2030onthebasisoffour
scenarios.1 Not onlydowethus place futuredevelop-
ments ina broader perspective, italso becomes clear
how future scenarios can vary and what the driving
forcesbehindthesedifferencesare. Issuessuchas the
sustainabilityoffoodproduction,energyresourcesand
knowledgedevelopmentareexploredagainstabackdrop
of societal and (geo) political movements, aswell astechnological and demographic developments. More
concretely, the four scenarios contain an analysis of
developmentsinsixbusinesssectorsintheNetherlands.
Whichsectorswillshowthemostgrowthin2030?Will
Dutchindustrybeabletokeepupwiththeincreasingcompetition from the Asian countries?What will the
consequences ofdemographic shiftsbe for thepublic
sector?
In order to map the long term development of the
various sectors of industry, we will first look at the
developmentoflabourproductivity.Importantfactorsin
thisrespectareafavourableinnovationclimate,invest-
ment in education andschoolingandembracingnew
technologies.Itmustalsobeasked,towhatextentdo
increasing affluence and lower prices lead to greater
demandforcertainproducts?Finally,theinternational
competitivenessofDutchbusinesses is important.For
eachscenario,differentfactorscandeterminethefuture
developmentofthesectorsofindustry.
IN2030alsohasitslimitations.Ourprimaryinterestis
in developments that reflect the relevant situation in
broadbrushstrokes.Thismeansthatsometopicscannot
bedealtwithindetail,whichwouldbeimpossiblewitha
timeframeof20years.WehopethatIN2030willinspirefurtherreflectiononpossibilitiesfor thefuture, inclu-
dinguncertaintiesandopportunities.
Introduction
1 IntheSpringof2011thebookIN2030:Viervergezichtenvoor
2030willbepublished,whichwillcontaindetailedprojections
ofliving,workinganddoingbusinessintheNetherlandsin2030.
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Howwilltheworldlooktwentyyearsfromnow?While
we cannot expect a precise answer to this question,thereismuchtobegainedbyaddressingit.Weknow
thattheworldischanginginanumberofways.Some
structural changes are fairly clear, such as population
ageingandashortageofnaturalresources.Otherissues
arelessclear.Theseincludetechnologicaldevelopments,
societaltrendsandtheglobalbalanceofpower.These
drivingforces,bothcertainanduncertain,willshapethe
worldinwhichentrepreneurswillsoonhavetotry to
operatesuccessfully.Onecoulddevoteentirestudiesto
theissuesandtrendsthatmayplayaroleinthecoming
twentyyears.Herewelimitourselvestoabriefdescrip-
tionoftheissuesthatweconsidertobethemostimpor-
tant.2
The earths population increasing and getting
older
The global population is set to increase by around a
quarter inthenext twodecades. Thiswill havemajor
consequencesfordemandonournaturalresourcesand
forthesustainabilityofqualityoflifeonearth.Thereis
considerable diversity in global demographic trends.WhileEurope, butalsoChina are greying, India hasa
rapidlygrowing,butrelativelyyoungpopulation.Inthe
Netherlandswehavebecomeaccustomedtopopulation
growth for the past hundred years. Itwill bequite a
challengeintheyearsaheadtochangeourmindsetto
thinkingintermsofacontraction.
Shifting balance of power stable relations?
It is virtually undisputed that the global economic
balanceofpowerwillshifttotheeastduringthenext
twenty years. But whatwill thismean for the world
orderand for international trade?Willtheeastovers-hadowthewest?Willwemoveforwardharmoniously?
Orwilltheconflictinginterestsleadtoafragmentation
ofglobalpower?Ofcourse,thesedevelopmentswillbe
driven and influenced by other trends as well. How
countries and power blocks relate to each other will
largelydeterminetheplayingfieldforeconomicprogress
andfreetrade.
European (dis-)integration?
The process of European unification commenced in
1957. Since then, further integration has takenplace,
stepbystep,culminating sofar intheintroductionof
euronotesandcoinsin2002.Butwheredowegofrom
here?TheGreekcrisishasmadeitabundantlyclearthat
Europeanintegrationcouldstillbederailed.Couldthe
eurozoneortheEuropeanUnionfallapart?Orwillwe
remainonthepathoffurtherintegration,onestepata
time?Will Europe choosetogrow strong together, or
willitbeeverycountryforitself?
Fossil fuels running outWhilethedemandforenergycontinuestogrow,energy
sourcesarebecomingincreasinglydepleted.Whatisto
bedone?Shouldweseektosaveenergy,orconcentrate
onsearchingforalternativeresources?Andifweoptfor
thelatter,willthesebeenvironmentallyfriendlyalterna-
tives, such as biomass and solar or water-powered
energy,orwillthefocusbeonnuclearenergy?Clearly,
theenergyquestionconstitutesoneofourmostdaunting
challenges.Itisalsoclear,thatmuchhastobedone.And
thisisoneofthemainuncertaintiesweface,whichcould
An uncertain world:
the driving forces
2 Forthemorecomprehensivebackgroundstudies,see:
www.rabobank.com/kennisbank
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easilygiverisetointernationaltensions.Theseconside-
rationsapplynotonlytofossilfuels,butalsotoagreaterorlesserextenttootherminerals,metalsandnon-metals.
Some of these, such as lithium and phosphorus are
scarce,andarefoundinjustafewplacesgloballya
potentialsourceofconflict,ifnoalternativesforthese
commoditiescanbefound.
Challenges for the food and water supply
Thegrowingworldpopulationandtherisingaverage
standardoflivingmeanthat the foodsupply and the
availabilityofcleandrinkingwatermaybecomecrucial
factorsinthefuturedevelopmentofsocieties.Because
the rapidly growing global population is gradually
becomingbetteroff, theaveragediet isalsochanging.
Thisischieflyreflectedinincreasedmeatconsumption.
Animalhusbandryrequiresmorelandaswellasmore
water.Climatechangeisalsocreatingawatershortage.
In2030,it islikely thathalfoftheworldspopulation
willliveinanenvironmentofwaterstress.3Howisthis
toberesolved?Byjointlyseekinganefficientdistribu-
tionofproductionandusingnewtechnologicaldevelop-
ments?Orwillitbeeverycountryforitself?Thesearefundamentalquestionsthatdeterminethefuture.
Technological Developments
Thereisnodoubtthattechnologywillcontinuetoplay
an important role in society in the future. However,
technologicalinnovationsthatareinitiallyheraldedas
breakthrough developments often take longer to be
universallyembraced than expected.Afterall,westill
dont fly byhelicopter towork every day, contrary to
whatwasbelievedwouldhappenfiftyyearsago.Onthe
otherhand,twentyyearsago,peoplehadnotanticipated
thetechnologicalrevolutionoftheinternet.Whatwedoknowwithcertainty,isthatcommunicationandinfor-
mationtechnologyinparticularwillcontinuetoradically
change our world during the next twenty years. We
should also expect other breakthrough technologies,
which wewill not explore in detail here, butwe will
assume(insomeofour scenarios) that these innova-
tionswillbemainlyinthefieldofenergy.
Working differently with fewer people
Our productivity in twenty years time will largely
dependonhowtheabovetrendspanout.Therewillbea
lotoffactorsimpactingonthe labourmarket:popula-
tionageing,technologicaldevelopments,moreextensive
globaleconomicintegrationandsocietaldevelopments,
allofwhichwillinfluencehowandwherewewillwork
andhowandwhatwewillproduceinthefuture.Willwe
allbe on flexi-time?Will the trendof an increasingly
service-basedeconomycontinue?Orhavewereached
the limit in this respect?Will theNetherlandsstillbe
able to compete with other countries? And will our
population still be sufficiently well educated in thefuture?Theseareallquestionsthatneedtobeaddressed.
Two core uncertainties, four scenarios
Someofthe developmentsoutlinedaboveareunavoi-
dable. Others are very uncertain. What they have in
commonisthattheyareallimportantfactorsincreating
apictureoftheworld,Europeand theNetherlandsin
2030.Combiningallthesefactorsandissueswouldlead
toanendlessnumber ofpossible futureexpectations.
Thatisthereality.Soinordertocreateahandletoenable
3 AccordingtotheFoodandAgricultureOrganisation,waterstressoccurswhenthereislessthan1,700m3of
drinkingwateravailableperpersonperyear.Seealso:FoodandAgricultureOrganisation, Coping with water
scarcity, Challenge of the twenty-first century,WorldWaterDay2007.
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someconsistencyindescribingpossibledevelopments,
wehaveoptedtomapourfutureprojectionsonanaxis:
twodimensionsonwhichtheabovelistedtopicspivot.
Thisproducesfourverydifferentscenariosfortheworld
of2030.Eachofthesereflectsthelimitsofwhatmight
bereasonablypossible.
The axes are designed to highlight processes and
developments, rather than focussing on the concrete
trendsandissues,asdescribedabove.Howthesetrends
and issues pan out will depend on the interaction
betweentheaxes.Theverticalaxisrepresentsthedegree
ofharmonyinwhichdevelopmentstakeplaceandhow
processes evolve. Harmony and conflict are the two
extremeson this axis. Harmony stands for a peaceful
society, consensus andcooperation.Conflict impliesa
morepolarisedsociety,witheachindividualforhimself
andlessemphasisoncollectiveinterests.
The horizontal axis represents the degree to which
developmentsandprocessesoccurgradually(orexplo-
sively):revolutionasopposed toevolution.Revolution
stands for rapid breakthroughs, extreme peaks and
troughs.Evolutionmeansmoreeven-keeledandlonger
lasting developments and processes. Thus the four
squares created by the axes form the basis for four
scenarios in 2030. The harmonious-revolutionarysquarecontainstheworldthatwedescribeasCapricious
Consent.This isa dynamic,uncertain,butharmonious
world where technological progress and the further
integrationoftheglobaleconomyplaypivotalroles.
Theworldin thebottomrightsquareis one ofmajor
conflictsandchanges.ItisaworldofAgile Antipoleswith
considerablepolarisationbothinandbetweencountries.
In thebottom leftsquare(Conflicting-Evolutionary on
theaxes)there isaworldwhich seems tobe stalling.
Lockedintoaneweast-westpolarisation,internationaldialogue fails to produce new solutions. We call this
scenarioSlow Strife.Lastly,abovethiswefind Flowingly
Forward,amoresustainableworldinwhichthesearch
forprogressisbasedonconsensus.
Using the scenarios
Becauseverylong-termdevelopmentsareshroudedin
uncertainty, scenarios are used to try tonavigate the
distantfuture.Theabovefourscenariosarenotintended
topredictthefuture,noraretheytheonlypossiblesitua-
tions for theworld, twenty yearsfromnow.However,
they are consistent possible scenarios, in which one
pictureisnotmoreorlesslikelytooccurthananother.
The scenarios have been created by making various
assumptions about the core uncertainties that are
central to the future issues being illustrated. The
assumptionsarewide-ranging,thereforeproducingfour
verydifferentscenarios,whichreflecttheconsiderable
degree of uncertainty involved. The scenarios thus
representthelimitsofwhatisreasonablypossible.
Theyaredesignedchieflytobeanaidtocompaniesinformulating strategic decisions, and to be used as a
referenceframeworkwhichlooksbeyondthedirection
of existing trends. Each scenario indicates where the
best opportunities might lie. Some of these may be
surprising.
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Figure 1: Core uncertainties and four scenarios
Harmony
Conflict
Evolution
Revolution
Flowingly Forward
Slow Strife
Capricious Consent
Agile Antipoles
Source: Rabobank
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Multipolar world
United States of Europe
Economic interests central
Network economy
Technologcal breakthroughs
Energy crisis averted
Food supply assured through technology
Consent
Harmonious-revolutionary
This world is driven by primarily economic considerations. It is a multipolar
world, which means that more than two economic powers or countries exert
a major influence. Countries prefer to work together, because they realize that
this is the best way to further their interests. Changes take place explosively and
rapidly. Tensions are resolved in a harmonious manner and do not escalate into
large-scale conflicts.
Harmony
Conflict
Evolution
Revolution
Flowingly Forward
Slow Strife
Capricious Consent
Agile Antipoles
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A multipolar world
Theworldof2030willnolongerhaveaunipolarorder
inwhichtheinfluenceoftheUnitedStatesisdecisive
(endofPaxAmericana).Thiswillbeduenotsomuch
toaweakeningof Americaspower,butto therapid
rise of new players on the global stage. Thus the
economic,politicalandmilitarypowerwillbedivided
acrossanumberofstates(figure 2).In2030Chinawill
be the worlds largest economy. Beijing will have
implementedradicalpoliticalandeconomic reforms.
To the satisfactionof the United States and Europe,
Chinaswitched to a flexible exchange ratepolicy in2022. Itsneighbour, India, hassucceeded inpositio-
ning New Delhi as the political and cultural bridge
betweentheUnitedStatesandChina,whileBangalore
hasbecomeaglobalcentreofinformationtechnology.
ThestrongChineseeconomyisgoodnewsforJapan.
Tokyo is thereforekeen to invest in a goodpolitical
relationship with Beijing and greater access to the
Chinesemarket.Thisculminatesinafreetradeagree-
mentbetweenthesetwocountriesin2025.
Thankstoitspro-westerngovernment,inpowersince
2020, Russia has made a remarkable transition to
democracy,positioningitselfasthegrowthengineof
Eurasia andcentralAsia,andstrengthening itslinks
withEurope, and toa lesser extentwith the United
States.In2030Brazilisthefifthlargestoilproducerin
theworldandhasevolvedtobecomearegionalpower
player,havingorchestratedthepoliticalandeconomic
integrationofLatinAmericainthepasttwentyyears.
Thefocusofinternationalcollaborationisoneconomicissues.In2020anew,somewhatwatereddownworld
trade agreement was signed, but is bolstered by
far-reachingbilateralandmultilateralaccords.Regula-
tionofthefinancialsectorhasbeenkepttoaminimum
andischieflyaimedatcreatingalevelplayingfieldand
adequate safeguarding of client protection. In 2028
BaselIVissucceededbyBeijingI,becausetheBankof
InternationalSettlementshassincemovedtoChina.
Figure 2: The multi-polar world in 2030
Source: Rabobank
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The United States of Europe
TheindividualmemberstatesoftheEuropeanUnion
havereachedtheconclusionthatinstitutionalreform
and voluntary surrendering of their national
sovereigntyistheonlywaytoconsolidatetheirinflu-
enceontheworldstage.Thus thetransformationto
theUnitedStatesofEuropewas completed in2027.
Politically the Union is structuredasa federation: a
centralgovernmentheadingalargenumberofstates
thatarerelativelyindependent.TheEuropeanCommis-
sionhasbeenconvertedintoafull-spectrumgovern-
ment, carrying outEuropean policyon internationalaffairs, economic affairs and defence. TheEuropean
Parliament is a national house of representatives,
while the European Council is now the European
Senate.ThecreationoftheUnitedStatesofEuropehas
givenEuropeadegreeofpowerontheworldstagethat
matchestheeconomicweightoftheregion.Anincrea-
singnumberofcountriesareholdingtheirreservesin
Euros. In 2020, the United Kingdom, Sweden and
Denmark introduce theeuro. Three years later they
are followed by the Czech Republic, Poland and
Hungary.TheBalkanstatesjointheEuropeanUnionin
2025, followedbyTurkeyin2028.Negotiationswith
Ukraineaboutaccessionareinprogress (figure 3).
Energy crisis averted
Summitmeetingsbetween themajor powersdonot
longerfocusexclusivelyontradeagreements;bilateral
agreementsarenowbeinghammeredout about the
energy supply.The riseofbothChinaand Indiahas
exacerbatedtheglobalshortageofnaturalresources,putting pressure not only on the supply of oil and
naturalgas,butalsoonwater,importantmetalssuch
aszincandcopperandmineralssuchasphosphates.
Amid these problems, solutions will be found in
technology.Strategicallianceswillbeformedinorder
toinvestinexpandingtheexistingproductioncapacity
oftherelativelycheapoilandgasfieldsinRussiaand
theGulfregionaswellasdevelopingthedeepseaoil
Figure 3: The United states of Europe in 2030
Source: Rabobank
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fieldsoffthecoastofBrazil.Chinasgrowingneedfor
commodities has led Beijing to undertake an active
roleinWestAfrica.TheChineseareinvestingconside-
rablesumsinexploitingoilandgasresourcesoffthe
coastofNigeria.Anotherexampleisthemassexploita-
tionofshalegas,ofwhichtheUnitedStates,China,but
alsoPolandhave considerable reserves. Shale gas is
provingamajorcompetitortotheotherfossilfuels.
At the sametime,countries have adesire toreduce
their dependenceonenergy. Political leadersworld-widearerelyingon technologicalbreakthroughsand
onmarket forces to achieve this.Market effects are
contributing to a cleaner atmosphere, because the
harmful by-products of CO2 and other greenhouse
gasses are fully factored into pricing. Technological
laggardsaredependentonthetradeinCO2emission
rights andcanbarelykeep their heads abovewater.
Against this background, the importance of nuclear
energyingeneratingelectricityhasgrownto25%by
2030. Thanks to technological advances, the predic-
tionsofareducedandvastlymoreexpensiveenergy
supply by 2025 have remained unfulfilled, and the
fearedenergycrisishasbeenaverted.
Safeguarding the food supply through technology
Becauseof thegrowingworldpopulation, combined
witheconomicprogress,notonlyisdemandforfood
rising,butthetypeoffoodsoughtischanging,dueto
dietary modification. Since there is little scope for
increasingthewatersupplyaswellasthelandavailable
forfoodproduction,thefocusisshiftingtothesecondgeneration of geneticallymodified crops, which can
usethescarceinputfactorsmuchmoreefficientlythan
existing varieties. The food strategy, especially of
countries and regions with a low level of self-
sustenance, such as China and the Middle East, is
characterised by bilateral agreements and strategic
allianceswithlarge-scalefoodproducersconcentrated
in Latin America. This strategy will strengthen the
south-southtrade flows at the expenseof the tradi-
tionalnorth-southtradeinfoodstuffs.
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In the heat of competition
For companies, Capricious Consentmeans a highly competitive environment, but one that
contains many opportunities. Labour, raw materials and capital are plentiful, putting new
investment opportunities within the reach of many. It will be essential to operate efficiently
and flexibly. The commercial services sector is growing prolifically, while the agricultural
and industrial sectors have to contend with strong international competition. However, the
added value of these sectors continues to rise, because they produce high-quality products
and knowledge and they serve niche markets.
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Figure 4: Many opportunities for companies
The surface area indicates the extent of the opportunities contained in
the dimensions that determine the environment of companies. The
higher the score on a specific dimension, the greater the opportunities
or the smaller the constraints.
Source: Rabobank
Labour: flexible and diverse
In2030thelabourmarketwillbemuchmoreflexible
andloose than iscurrently thecase.This isvirtually
inevitable in a world in which economic interests
demand the integration of economiesworldwide and
wheretechnologicalinnovationsaretakingplacerapidly
and explosively. With a social security system that
encouragesareturntowork,long-termunemployment
willdroptominimallevels.Employeeswillalsochange
jobsoften.Theeraofpermanentcontractsisover.The
employeeisanentrepreneurandmaychoosetowork
forvariouscompaniessimultaneouslyfortheduration
of a project. Self-sufficiency is essential,while attach-
menttoasinglecompanywillbelessimportant.Peoplesincomeswilllargelyconsistofresults-basedremunera-
tiononanindividualbasis.
Thelaboursupplyin2030willdifferinmanyrespects
fromthecurrentsituation.Thedownscalingofcollective
benefitswillcontributetowardsinducingolderpeople
intheNetherlandsandEuropetocontinueworkinguntil
the age of 70. By comparison, the pensionable age in
Japanhasbeenraisedto75.Besidestheelderly,women
areenteringthelabourmarketingreaternumbers,and
theyaremorehighlyeducated.Insteadofworkingpart
time,morewomenareworkingfulltime.Thankstothe
processofinternationalisation,expansionoftheEUand
theaccompanyingfreemovementoflabourandrelaxed
immigrationpolicy, the laboursupply in2030will be
culturallymore diverse than is now the case. In this
scenario,theeffectofpopulationageingon thelabour
supply is more than compensated for by the rise in
labour force participation and the accompanying
broadeningofthetaxbase.
Two decades fromnow, half of theworkforce will be
employedmainly in thehigh-tech sector, ICT, accoun-
tancy and finance. In this scenario, highly qualifiedemployeeswilltraversetheglobeandonaccountofthe
strengthoftheeconomytheywillbeingreatdemand
butinshortsupply.Atthesametime,therewillbeconsi-
derable private investment in human capital, because
thereturnsgainedfromeducationwillbeconsiderable,
duetothewidediscrepancyinincomes.
Cheap raw materials and financing
Theshortageofrawmaterialswillnotbeaproblemfor
Dutchcompaniesin2030.Atthesametime,theinvest-
mentinreducingthematerialsandenergyrequiredfor
productionwill reap rewards,asnot onlyoutput,but
also the transport of goods can takeplace atamuch
lowercost.
The complete liberalisation and globalisation of the
financialmarketsinthisscenariomeanstherewillbeno
limitson capitalmovement between countriesConse-
quently,companiesandfinancialinstitutionscanchoose
thecountryandcurrencyinwhichtheyseektoborrow
orinvestmoney.Thelargerandmoreaccessiblemarketswillpermittheuseofmoreprofitableinvestmentoppor-
tunities, irrespectiveof their location.Asa result, the
shareofbankcreditinthetotalfinancingofmedium-to-
large Dutch companies will decline from over three-
quartersnowadaystoalittleoverhalfin2030.
Thesearchforaccesstoknowlegeandnewtechnologies
willleadtoanever increasingflowofcapital fromthe
emergingeconomiestotheWest.Besidesinvestmentin
thenationaleconomy,considerableinvestmentwilltake
placegloballyviasovereignwealthfunds.Consequently,
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the management of many Dutch companies will be
decidednotonlybyAmericanandEuropeaninvestors,
but increasingly also by investment companies in
Moscow,BeijingandNewDelhi.
A world of unlimited possibilities
This dynamic world is driven primarily by economic
considerations.Theriseofnewglobalpowersgoeshand
inhandwiththeemergenceofnewinfluentialcompa-
niesandnetworks.Twentyyearsfromnow,thesewill
havematured into true competitorstowesternenter-
prises.Thus,theamountofcompetitivepressurefeltbycompanies in this scenario will act as an incentive
towards improving efficiency and will force them to
continuallyupdatetheirtechnologyandorganisational
methods.Becausetechnologicalprogressistakingplace
atsuchafastpace,thisrequiresalargedegreeofflexibi-
lity,anefficientorganisationofICTprocessesandhigh-
qualityhumancapital.
Progressivespecialisationmeansthattasksoractionsin
aproductionchainofagrowingnumberofproductswill
increasinglybedividedup andspread throughout the
world. Thanks to improving communications techno-
logyandrelativelylowtransportcosts,locationwillno
longermattersomuch.SchipholairportandRotterdam
portaremajorjunctionsfortheinternationaltransport
ofbothpeopleandgoods.Atthesametime,anenormous
consumermarketisopeneduptoDutchinternationally
operatingcompanies.Betweennowand2030,overone
billionChineseandIndiancitizenswilljointheimpor-
tantmiddleclassconsumergroup-doublethecurrent
number.
With theblurringofnational borders, theboundaries
between companies are also being eroded. In 2030
companiesandemployeeswilloperateinanumberof
globalnetworksofbusinesses,researchinstitutionsand
suppliers,inordertoobtainmaximumbenefitfromthe
informationandknowledgefromthedifferentorganisa-
tionsinthenetwork.Largecompaniesthatdontsucceed
in linking into theglobal networks they needwill not
standachanceinthisscenario.
Structure of the economy
In Capricious Consent the Dutch economy is growing
rapidly, ata rateofapproximately3%annually, albeit
withlargefluctuations.Thisgrowthrateiscomparable
tothatofthe1990s,andcanbeattributedtoaflexible
labourmarket with a relaxed (knowledge) immigrant
policyandstrongtechnologicaladvancement.Substan-
tialglobaleconomicintegrationreinforcesthistrend.
Growthintheagriculturalsectorislaggingbehindthat
intherestoftheeconomy.Asagainsttheliberalisationof
tradeandtheopeningupofnewsalesmarkets,therearespatial limitations that threatentocurbthe growthof
thissector.Thediscontinuationofsubsidiesinthewake
of reforms to the common agricultural policy of the
European Union and its further expansion likewise
cause agriculturalactivitiestoshift totheeast. Dutch
agribusiness in this scenario playsa chiefly European
pivotalroleintheareaofmarketinganddistributionof
market garden anddairyproducts,qualityproduction
and high-endknowledge and innovation. Accordingly,
Figure 5: Employment and labour productivity by sector
in 2030
The size of the balls in the figure indicates the size of the sector in
terms of added value. This added value is determined by the deploy-
ment of labour and capital. The X axis represents the average change
in labour productivity per annum in the 2010-2030 period. The Y axis
indicates the average annual change in employment in the 2010-2030
period.
Source: Rabobank
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thesectorwillundergoafurthershiftfromproduction
toservices,as hasbeen thecaseacross theboardfor
some time.Although thebiobased economyhasbeen
gaining importance globally, the Dutch agricultural
sectorwillonlybenefitfromthistoalimitedextent.The
governmentdoes not envisage a role for itself in this
area.Onaccountofthecontinuingabove-averagerisein
labour productivity, employment in the agricultural
sectorwillhavedroppedbysome20%by2030(figure 5).
Inthisscenario,itistheindustrialsectorthatismost
exposed to international competition. The process ofoffshoringandoutsourcingamajorpartofproduction
throughoutthewholeworldwillcontinueunabated.The
risingstandardoflivingworldwidewillleadtogrowing
consumptionofluxurygoods,whiletheconsumptionof
necessary goods - often industrial products - will lag
behind. As in the past, this sector will undergo a
metamorphosis during the coming decades. In 2010,
Dutchindustrywillconcentratemainlyontheproduc-
tion of high-end goods andwill concentrateonniche
markets. The cross-border urban triangle of Lige-
Maastricht-Aachen will specialise in advanced nano-
technology.Theindustrialsectorwillcontinuetogrow
intermsofaddedvalueatarateof2%annually.However,
employment in the sector will decline as a result of
stronglyrisinglabourproductivity,partlythankstoICT
applicationsandrelativelycheapfinancing.
Inthisscenario,thenumberofhouseholdsintheNether-
landswillincrease,albeitataslowerpacethanpreviously.
This is partly a consequence of labour migration. The
continuinggrowthwill feeddemandforhousing,whichwill benefit the construction sector. Despite the high
economicgrowthinthissector,demandforofficespace
willbelowin 2030.Combinedwitha fairly low rise in
labour productivity, employment in construction will
increasesomewhat.Inaddition,thenumberofcompanies
operatingin thissectorwillincrease.Thetrendthathas
becomeapparentinrecentyears(self-employedworkers
whohireouttheirservices)willcontinue.
The services sector will growprolifically in Capricious
Consent.Communicationservicesandtransportarerapid
growers,asareservicesrelatedtoknowledge,suchasin
the area of technology and agricultural technology.
Demand for services will increase thanks to ongoing
globalisationandthefactthattheNetherlandsismoving
furtheruptheproductionchain,aswellasrisinggeneral
affluence. The more affluent an economy, the more
demandshiftsfromgoodstoservices.Thewidespreaduse
ofICTwillimprovelabourproductivityinthetransport
sector and communication services in particular. This
means the rise in employment in serviceswill be lessprolificthanthatof the addedvalue. Inthissector, the
numberofbusinesseswillgrowstronglyasaresultofthe
networkeconomy(figure 6).
Figure 6: Development of the number of companies
by sector
Source: Rabobank
At20%,employmentgrowthwillbelargestinthehealthcaresector.Becausehealthcareiscarriedoutmainlyby
people,itisdifficulttoachievegreaterproductivityinthis
sector.Consequently,more thanhalf ofallnew jobs are
createdinthissector.Demandforlong-termcareinparti-
cular will increase in this scenario, due to population
ageingandtechnologicaladvances.Becauseoftheprolific
growthinaffluence,householdswillhavesufficientmeans
topayforcare.Asagainstrisingexpenditureonhealthcare,
savingswillbemadeintheareaofadministrationcostsas
aresultofadownscalingofthewelfarestate.
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Few companies have updated and adapted themselves to changing
circumstances as much as DSM. The companys history dates back to
1902, when the Dutch State Mines were founded. Coal gas is a by-productof the coking process, when large quantities of coal gas are released. DSM
makes ammonia from these gasses, which is a chemical feedstock for the
production of nitrogen fertilisers. This was the first step in a diversification
process that ultimately meant that the company successfully survived the
closure of the coal mines. After the Second World War, DSM exploited the
growing interest in synthetic materials with its production of industrial
chemicals and raw materials for synthetic fibers and threads. When the
last state mine closed down in 1975, the company rapidly switched its
focus. In 1989 DSM was floated on the stock exchange.
In the 1970s and 80s, DSM implemented organisational changes in order
to realise adequate scale, more guaranteed sales and diversification in
high-quality synthetic materials and fine chemicals. In the 1990s we
sought to find a better match between research output and market
requirements; we then shifted our focus to developing products with a high added value: products for
the pharmaceutical and food industries and high-end synthetic materials for the automobile and
transport industries, electro-technology and the electronics sector. Every three to five years we hold a
Corporate Strategy Dialogue, in which over 50 people meet to map the future direction of DSM. We
also conduct interim evaluations to ascertain whether the strategy is still correct, or whether
adjustments should be made. The world is constantly changing and it is important to anticipate these
changes. In executing our strategy for 2010, DSM underwent a rapid process of internationalisation,both in the area of personnel and in the field of production activities. In 2007, we accelerated the
processes of conversion to Life Sciences and Material Sciences, and for the coming years we have a
strong focus on growth. This focus majors on three global trends: Global shifts in population
concentrations and new technologies, especially in the communications industry; Climate and Energy;
and Health and Wellness. Our evolution would not have been possible without vision, the willingness
to change, a highly innovative capacity, a strong focus on the changing requirements of our clients and
our deeply embedded roots in society.
Hans Vossen (DSM)
You have to constantly
anticipate change
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Antipoles
Conflicting-revolutionary
International tensions are running high. There are hotbeds of strife all over
the world. Some of these concern ethnic or religious issues, but also the scarcity
of natural resources is leading to conflict between countries and regions.
Protectionism is the order of the day. The European Union has fallen apart,
and the world lives in a continuous state of distrust, high alert and fear.
Strict security measures are deemed essential. The gap between incomes is
large, and because technological advancements are not being shared, there
is fierce competition on the technological front.
Fragmented world
Euro era over
Fragmented markets
Scarcity of resources leads to
technological breakthroughs
Self-sustenance a priority
Harmony
Conflict
Evolution
Revolution
Flowingly Forward
Slow Strife
Capricious Consent
Agile Antipoles
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A chaotic world
Theglobalfinancialcrisisof2008/2009leftalegacyof
internationalcurrencywarfare,awaveofshort-sighted
protectionistmeasuresandtradeboycotts.Thefinancial
worldislocalisedandvolatile.Globallyalargenumber
ofbankshavebeennationalised,whiletheinternational
capitalmarket hasbeen reduced toregionalmarkets.
Theglobaleconomyhasenteredadownwardspiral.In
2018theWorldTradeOrganizationwasdisbanded,and
emergingeconomieshaveexitedfromtheWorldBank
andtheInternationalMonetaryFund.In2023theUnitedStatesgovernment isdeclared officiallybankrupt, and
the country loses ground in economic and political
weightandimportance.Theeraofthedollarasareserve
currency is over. However, an alternative has not yet
emerged,sinceeventheeuronolongerexists.
Inasimultaneousdevelopment,tradeboycottsandthe
closureofthemainexportmarketsinthewesternworld
hamperthe riseofnewpowers.Butthe failureofthe
lattertoimplementpoliticalandsocio-economicreforms
isalsoholdingthemback.TheChinesegovernmenthas
itsworkcutoutincontainingsocialunrestthroughout
thecountry.ThestreetsofBeijingarefullofmillionsof
protestorsonadailybasis,andanti-westernsentiment
is spilling over. The Indian government, on the other
hand,isstrugglingwithrisingpoverty(figure 7).Alarge
numberoffactoriesinthesub-continenthaveceasedto
operate and many former engineers are reduced to
workingapatchoflandoutsidethecity.Russiaiseffecti-vely bankrupt and is torn by corruption and ethnic
tensions.The country is headed for a newdictatorial
regime.InLatinAmerica,Venezuelansocialismissprea-
dingtoothercountries,eruptinginclassstruggles,parti-
cularlyinBrazilandArgentina.Inthisscenario,Africais
likewise the scene of conflict over access to scarce
natural resources. Nigeria is now the fifth largest
supplierofoiltotheUnitedStates,whileChinaisalso
tryingtogaininfluenceintheWestAfricanstate.
Figure 7: A world seething with conflict
Source: Rabobank
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Euro fairytale over
TheEuropeanEconomicandMonetaryUnionfellapart
in2025.TheMediterraneaneurocountrieswereforced
byseverefinancialproblemstoleavetheeurozoneand
introduce their own currency: the medi (figure 8).
Irelanddecidestore-introducethepoundsterling.The
fragmentationandpoliticaldisintegrationmeansanend
totheEuropeanUnion.Theresultisabank-run,particu-
larly in thenewmedi zone,anunprecedentedlossof
both confidenceandaffluenceandanaccumulationoftensions.EuropeanUnionmemberstatesinCentraland
EasternEuropedriftfurtherfromtheUnionandfocus
theirattentionincreasinglyoncollaborationwitheach
other.TheNorthernEuropeanstatescontinuewiththe
euro and try as best they can to bolster economic
relationsintheirownregion.However,thepositionof
Europeancountriesisweakenedbypopulationageing
andthefailuretoimplementnecessaryreforms.Europe
closesitsborders,inordertoprotectitssocialsecurity
Figure 8: Monetary union disbanded by 2030
Source: Rabobank
Virtual escape
Besidesthedivisionbetweenthehavesandthehave-
nots-chieflydeterminedbygeographicalboundaries
- the gap iswideningwithin countries between the
connected and the disconnected. Where physical
barriers are increasingly difficult to overcome, the
virtual world reigns supreme. This is driven not so
muchbycommercialmotives,butmorebyescapism:
highly educated young peopleofgenerationZ (born
between1994and2012approximately)areescaping
thehardrealityoflifeandoptingforavirtual,parallel
life,wheretheyenjoygreaterfreedomandhavemore
control over their existence. Building on the many
socialnetworks,theycreatecompletevirtualsocietiesfor generation Z members throughout the world.
Communicationisnotaproblem,thankstotheavaila-
bility of excellent translation programmes. Yet this
escapism has its limitations.Thevirtual economy is
constrainedby thephysical boundariesofthe tradi-
tionalworld.Moreover,variousgovernmentswilltry
tocurtailthepowerofthisvirtualworld,resultingin
anunproductiverivalry:newsecuritytechnologiesare
soonhackedinto.
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andthe economy.This leads togrowingtradeconflict
betweenthetwocurrencyzonesaswellastoacoolingof
therelationshipwiththeUnitedStatesby2030.
Scarcity of natural resources: impetus for technolo-
gical breakthroughs
Thereislittlefocusinternationallyonlongtermcross-
border issues, such as safeguarding energy and the
depletion of natural resources. The energy supply is
becoming increasingly uncertainandtheprice of raw
materialsis soaring. Inorder toreduceenergydepen-dence,westerncountriesinparticularareinvestingin
energy-saving technologies and alternative energy
sources, such as bio fuels, with the desired results.
Governmentinterventionisconsiderable.Public-private
partnershipsandsubsidies onenergy-savingproducts
support this trend. Investment inbio fuels pushesup
foodprices,exacerbatingtheinstabilityinanumberof
Africancountries.SomeAsianeconomiesareinvesting
chiefly via sovereign wealth funds in resource-rich
African countries, in exchange for natural resources.
Governmentsarekeepingalidonthepriceofstrategic
resourcesviapriceregulationandsubsidies.
Self-sustenance a priority
Owingtothelackofinternationalcoordination,countries
havedevisedtheirownfoodstrategyandpolicy,focusing
onachievingastableinternalfoodsupplyandlikewise
stabledomesticfoodprices.Negativeeffectsofthefood
strategy caneasily bepassedonexternally. Countrieswithalowlevelofself-sustenance-includingChinaand
the Gulf States - have undertaken large-scale food
productionfortheirownpopulationinothercountries.
Thus Chinesecompaniesare active intheagricultural
sectorinMozambiqueandNamibia.Thisleadstorising
tension and increased protectionism on international
agrimarkets.
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Business in chaos
For companies, theAgile Antipoles scenario is a question of survival. Dutch companies will
be hit unprecedentedly hard by a combination of major international tensions, division
within the monetary union and protectionism. Domestic demand has stagnated,
international markets are inaccessible, the energy supply is uncertain and capital markets
are fragmented and highly volatile. Private investment is R&D is negligible, the government
stimulates investment in the high-tech industry. The commercial services sector is shrinking,
while agriculture and industry are showing some limited growth, because domestic demand
for these products has not entirely fallen away.
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Figure 9: Tough times for companies
The surface area indicates the extent of the opportunities contained in
the dimensions that determine the environment of companies. The
higher the score on a specific dimension, the greater the opportunities
or the smaller the constraints.
Source: Rabobank
Demand for labour is limited
The trend towards deglobalisation, combined with
majorinternationaltensionsandthedisbandingofthe
eurozonewillinflictheavydamageontheopenDutch
economy with its internationally oriented business
sector. Consequently, demandfor labourwill contract.
However, because the expected shift of industrial
productiontolow-incomecountrieshasnottakenplace,
norhavetheagrimarketsbeenthrownopen,thedecline
indemandforlow-qualifiedlabourintheworldof Agile
Antipoles will be lessmarked than in the other three
scenarios.At thesame time, owing to the substantial
downscaling of social security, the labour supply willincrease,particularlyamongolderpeopleandwomen.
The pensionableage in 2025will be 70years in the
NetherlandsandEurope.Andalthoughthisishigh,itis
stillfiveyearsyoungerthaninJapan.Ontheotherhand,
the increasing labour supplywill be curtailed by the
discouragedworkereffect,whichmeansitwillbeless
marked than in Capricious Consent. The long-term
unemployment rate will be high. Ultra short employ-
mentcontractswillbeamainfeatureofthejobsmarket.
Assoonasajobisdone,employeesaresetaside.Once
they have found themselves on the sidelines of the
labour market, many people will fail to re-enter the
employmentprocess.Thisisthedownsideofeconomic
flexibilisation:jobsarescarce,socialsecurityislimited
and many workers are the victim. The difference
betweeninsidersandoutsidersonthelabourmarketis
considerable.Thedisbandingofthemonetaryunionhas
alsoputanendtothefreemovementoflabour.Thisis
particularly disadvantageous for highly educated
workers. Immigration is also subjected tomore strin-gent regulation, which means that the inflow of
knowledgemigrantswillbevirtuallyzeroin2030.Asa
resultoftheabovedescribeddevelopments,combined
withpopulationageing,participation intheworkforce
willbelowerin2030thanin2010.Inthisscenariothere
islessinvestmentinhumancapital,becauseofalackof
publicfundsandalowexpectedprivatereturn.
Natural resources and capital: no more plenty
Inthisscenario,accesstonaturalresourcesisbecoming
increasingly uncertain,with soaringprices asa result
andhencealsohigherproductioncosts.Thiswillonlybe
partlyoffsetbymoreefficientuseofenergy,thanksto
substantialgovernmentinvestment.
Because of widespread protectionism, international
capitalflows-insofarasthesestillexist-aresubjected
tostrictregulation.Thedisappearanceofthecommon
currencyhasputanendtotheintegrationof financial
marketswithintheeurozone.Moreover,banks,especi-
ally in the new medi-zone are confrontedwithmasswithdrawalsofsavings.Thiswillhaveaknock-oneffect
ontheavailabilityandcostoffinancingforthebusiness
sector.Notonlywillnewopportunitiesfor profit then
disappear,butthediscipliningeffectoftheinternational
capital markets on company management is lacking.
Althoughthelendingcapacityofbankshasbeenseverely
reduced,companieshavelittlealternativebuttooptfor
thetightenedandmorecostlybankfinancing.
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Closed doors everywhere
With uncertainty abounding and costs soaring, the
globalisation of production processes has ceased. In
someplacestheoppositedevelopmentistakingplace:
wheregovernments consider productionprocesses to
be vital, instead of being internationalised, these are
subjected to national regulation. Protection of vital
companiesviastate support and legislation is increa-
singlycommon-evennationalisation.Thisismostoften
thecaseamongcompaniesthatsupplyelectricity,water
and food, as well as telecommunications companies,airlinesandbanks.
The tensions between regions and countries have
induced internationally operating enterprises to
withdraw from unsafe areas and abandon both sales
markets and production locations. In fact, in this
scenario,therewillbelotsofsmallercompanies,because
ofthelackofbothmajorinternationalcompetitionand
an international playing field. Furthermore, domestic
demandwillstagnate,whilenewmarketsremainclosed.
These smallerbusinessesare oftenpart ofa network
thatseekstoprofitfrompoolingtheavailableknowledge
andproductionchain.
Despite,orperhapsbecauseoftheconsiderableuncer-
taintiesand volatility, technologicalprogress is relati-
vely strong. Yet technological breakthroughs are
unbalanced, are mainly government driven and take
place chiefly in the area of bio and nano technology,
energy and advanced computer technology. New
developmentsareoftenborn fromfear andsuspicion.Overtime,manyoftheseinnovationsonlyreachcompa-
niesthathavegoodgovernmentconnections,withclien-
telism playing a prominent role. Thus a level playing
fieldforcompetitionisfarfromthetruth.Alackofinter-
national cooperation hampers the exchange of
knowledgeand the implementationof foreign innova-
tions. Likewise, the fragmentation of global markets
means the returns from these innovations are disap-
pointing.
Structure of the economy
In this scenario, theDutch economywill struggle.On
balance,therewillbenoeconomicgrowthby2030,with
theinterveningperiodconsistingofalternatingperiods
ofgrowthandcontraction.Thestagnationof interna-
tional trade and the disbanding of the eurozone will
haveleftanegativelegacyforDutchcompanies.
For industry and agriculture, this may contain some
opportunities, but only in theabsence ofbetterones.
Accordingly, the agricultural sector will encounterreducedcompetitionon thedomesticmarket,butwill
havelittleornoaccesstonewmarkets.Thesamewill
apply to industry, with virtually no opportunities for
development in growthor nichemarkets. Thepartial
collapseoftheeurozonewillnothelp,needlesstosay.As
opposedtothis,outsourcingorrelocatingofproduction
will proceed slowly inAgile Antipoles.However, partly
thanksto publicinvestment,energy-saving technology
Figure 10: Employment and labour productivity by sector
in 2030
The size of the balls in the figure indicates the size of the sector in
terms of added value. This added value is determined by the deploy-
ment of labour and capital. The X axis represents the average change
in labour productivity per annum in the 2010-2030 period. The Y axis
indicates the average annual change in employment in the 2010-2030
period.
Source: Rabobank
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will advance, which will be to the benefit of Dutch
chemicalandhigh-techcompanies.Onaccountofthese
opposingforces,growthwillbeslightinbothindustry
and agriculture. And employment will fall in these
sectors, owing to the above average rise in labour
productivity (figure 10).
For agriculture and industry it is partly a long-term
process of re-evaluating core activities, given the
changingenvironment,bothnationallyandinternation-
ally. Entrepreneurs who succeed in completing thetransformation process as well as companies with a
trustworthyimagewillbetheonesthatdowell.Trustis
keyinthisscenario.
Apartfromtheagriculturalandindustrialsectors,there
will be some limited growth in the healthcare and
government sectors. Population ageing is the main
reasonforgrowthinhealthcare.Becauseoftheoverall
lackofeconomicgrowthinthisscenario,therearelittle
meansavailabletostimulatequalityimprovementand
technologicalprogressinthissector.Inaworldwhere
conflict,fearanddistrustprevail,governmentspending
on security will rise. Employment will increase
somewhatinareassuchasdefence,policeandlawenfor-
cement(figure 11).
Theproblemsfacingtheconstructionindustryareofa
much largerscale.With thepopulationoftheNether-
landsindecline, thenumberofhouseholdsfallingand
littledemandfrombusinessesfornewbuildings,times
willbetoughfortheconstructionsector.Littlesupport
canbeexpectedfromthegovernment.Consequently,the
sector will contract significantly, with a considerable
shake-outintheworldofcontractors,particularlyinthe
areaofcommercialrealestate.
The commercial services sector will also undergo
contraction inthis scenario - anunprecedentedsitua-
tioninthepost-warperiod.Thiswillbe largelydueto
limiteddomesticdemand(puttingpressureontheretail
trade)plusthelackofanexternalgrowthimpulse.The
only business to show growth in this sector will be
communicationstechnology.
Figure 11: Employment development by sector
Source: Rabobank
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CheapTickets.nl is a business venture of the Beins Travel Group which
was originally set up in 1971 in the Dutch city of Oosterhout and was
taken over in 1996 by Lex Beins and Ton Berends. While the majorityof travel agencies opted to expand by opening offices in various
cities, the Beins Travel Group decided to concentrate its expertise in
one location and to explore other growth opportunities. Since 2001
the company has been selling tickets online. With the Internet
making huge advances, Beins wholeheartedly embraced the new
concept.
In 2006 we realised that if we wanted to be a big player in the
market, we would have to make significant investment. It was all or
nothing. We invested all our profits in a marketing campaign, in
order to gain as much exposure as possible within a short period: ads
on radio and TV, billboard posters along the motorway. Flexibility is a
key factor in this story. It is important to be able to act and respond
promptly as situations develop. Selling airline tickets was a conscious
decision. It is a straightforward product - the price of every airplane seat can be compared - and it
is a market with an upside. Because online ticket sales are booming, the entire organisation has
changed. We used to have lots of staff working behind the counter; now there is a complete call
centre, and even a branch in Curaao to facilitate evening calls. When things were going well in the
Netherlands, we explored possibilities for expanding abroad. The first place we looked at was
Germany. However, as we know, a good football club in the Netherlands will not necessarily be a
success in the Champions League. Germany was lagging behind in internet connections andonline payment systems - two essential pre-conditions for selling online tickets. In 2008 we beefed
up our team with a new CEO: Raymond Vrijenhoek. Its his job to keep the team together and to be
in charge of communication, so that Ton and I are free to engage in scouting activities and explore
more countries - to become true Champions League players.
Lex Beins (CheapTickets.nl)
It was all or nothing
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Strife
Conflicting-evolutionary
Slow Strife is a bipolar world. As in the last century, tensions abound between
East and West. However, now it is China and the United States that oppose each
other. International organisations such as the International Monetary Fund and
the United Nations continue to be dominated by the West. The arms race has
evolved into rivalry over economic sanctions and strongly protectionists
measures. Regionalism has become the norm. It has become impossible to avert
the energy crisis. There is an increasing shortage of food and clean drinking
water, and the gap between rich and poor, as well as between the generations is
widening. Amid interminable discussion, these opposing forces lead to
long-term stalemate situations
Bipolar world
Europe: status quo unchanged
Free trade stagnates
Technological progress limited
Food certainty a priority
Harmony
Conflict
Evolution
Revolution
Flowingly Forward
Slow Strife
Capricious Consent
Agile Antipoles
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Regionalism the norm
From the 1950s through the 1980s itwas the United
States and the SovietUnion that opposed each other
menacingly during theColdWar. Half a century later,
historyisrepeatingitself,albeitwithChinanowfacing
downtheUnitedStates.Thewesterneconomicsystem,
basedonmarketmechanismsis opposedbythe state
capitalismofnewglobalplayers (figure 12).TheWest,
andinparticulartheUnitedStates,isreluctanttoshare
itsinfluentialpositionwiththenewcomers.Theformer
cannotbereliedontosupport thenecessaryreformswithininternationalorganisationssuchastheInterna-
tionalMonetaryFund,theUnitedNationsandtheWorld
Bank,requiredtomakeroomfornewworldpowers.In
2030theworldislookingbackontwolostdecades.
Asiancountriesareinvestingincreasinglyinstrengthe-
ning political and trade links with the surrounding
countries. Easternization is an increasing trend.The
maincurrentofglobalizationhasunleashedanopposing
currentofindividualityanddiversity.In2018theAsian
TradeOrganisation issetup inBeijing, andthe Asian
EconomicRegionis a fact. China,RussiaandtheGulf
StatesformtheglobaleconomicspacewithDubaiand
Dohaasmajorfinancialandtransporthubsintendedto
competewithNewYorkandLondon.Scarcelytwoyears
aftertheAsianTradeOrganisationhasbeenformed,the
AsianSecurityCouncilissetup-acounterparttotheUN
Security Council - for thepurposeoftackling security
issuesintheregion.Becausethesecuritycommitment
oftheUnitedStatesintheregionhasweakened,Japandecides to seek collaborationwith Beijingconcerning
regionalsecurityissues.
Intheabsenceofaworldtradeagreement,international
freetradeinagriculturalproductsandservicesfailsto
getofftheground.Bilateralagreementsarereached,but
tradebarriersremaininplacebetweentheEasternand
Westerntradeblocks.Thereisadearthofagreements
on issues such as environmental and climate policy,
Figure 12: The world divided into two trade blocks
Source: Rabobank
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intellectual property rights and capital movement,
whichleadstoacounter-productiverivalryinlegislation
andregulationbetweenbothtradeblocks.
European Union: status quo unchanged
TheroleoftheEuropeanUnioninthisbipolarworldis
relatively small. The bureaucratic and untransparent
approach taken by Brussels in reaction to the global
financialcrisisof2008/2009hasfurtherstrengthened
themember states in their resolvetohold onto their
sovereigntyandconcedelesspower.Moreover,economicintegrationwith theEasternEuropeanmemberstates
andfurtherdeepeningoftheinternalmarketarefraught
with difficulty (figure 13). Expansionof theEuropean
Unionhasbeenhalted.Atthesametime,thenorth-west
of Europe is intensifying its trade relationswith the
United States.Far-reaching bilateral liberalisationhas
resulted in a new transatlanticmarket without trade
barriers.Consequentlythereis growthin thetradeof
servicesinparticular,aswellasgreaterlabourmobility;
however, a lack of reform ispreventing theEuropean
economyfrombeingsufficientlycompetitiveandflexible
to fully benefit from this development.TheEuropean
financialsectorisalsosubjecttomorestringentregula-
tioncomparedtotheUnitedStates.Encouragedbythe
strengtheningofthetransatlanticmarket,north-western
Europeinparticularfindsitselfleaningpoliticallymore
andmoretotheUnitedStates.
The energy crisis is a fact
Accesstonaturalresourcesisseverelyhampered.Inandaround the year 2030 three-quarters of oil and gas
reservesworldwideare located inpolitically unstable
regions. The problems are not only of a geo-political
nature, butarealsorelated todifficultiessurrounding
thenecessary(coordinated)investmentintheexplora-
tion and exploitation of new energy fields. For this
reason,thereisinsufficientinvestmentinthedeep-sea
fields of Latin America and in expanding theexisting
capacityinRussia.TheEasterntradeblockhasmanaged
Figure 13: Split within the European Union
Source: Rabobank
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Between a rock and
a hard place
A shortage of labour, an energy crisis and a fragmented capital market. These are tough
times for businesses. Trade between two power blocks is hampered by inefficient
regulation. The transatlantic market offers only some compensation. Although company
investment in R&D is negligible, the rivalry between the two power blocks is a catalyst for
development in the arms industry, space travel and medical technology. Production in the
agricultural and industrial sectors is more or less stable, while commercial services show a
fluctuating development.
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Figure 14: Limited opportunities for companies
The surface area indicates the extent of the opportunities contained in
the dimensions that determine the environment of companies. The
higher the score on a specific dimension, the greater the opportunities
or the smaller the constraints.
Source: Rabobank
Sluggish labour market
In a bipolarworld,with a clear divisionbetween the
eastern and western trade blocks, North-Western
Europe,includingtheNetherlands,strengthensitstrade
relationswiththeUnitedStates.Thistransatlanticcolla-
boration results in higher employment potential and
greater labour mobility than for instance in Agile
Antipoles. But because the government has failed to
addressitssoftsocialpolicyandmakethelabourmarket
moreflexible,thereislessgrowthinthelaboursupply,
especiallyofolderpeopleandwomen.Accordingly, in
thisscenario,thepensionableageonlyreaches68years
in2050.ThefailuretoimplementreformstotheDutchlabourmarketmeansthatitisdifficulttocombinework
and private life (financially). Consequently large
numbersofwomenopttoreducetheirworkinghoursor
toleavetheworkforcealtogether.Theinfluxofmigrant
workers is insufficient tocompensate for thegrowing
shortageoflabour,particularlyinthepublicsector,and
moreoverleadstotensionsinsociety.Inthisscenario,
thereisgreaterinvestmentineducationthanisthecase
in Agile Antipoles because government spending is
higherandtheexpectedprivatereturnsofextraschoo-
lingaregreaterinaclimateofslightlybettereconomic
growth.
Energy crisis and fragmented capital market
Access to natural resources is limited, both for
geo-politicalreasonsandonaccountofalackofcoordi-
nated investment. Using cheap coal is thealternative.
Nonetheless,productionandtransportcostsarerising.
Atthesametime,thereisonlylimitedinvestmentinICT
and innovation, severely curbing the development of
moreefficientandflexibleproductionprocesses.
Thefinancialsectoris regulatedalongthefaultlineof
thetwopowerblocks.Yetwithintheseblocksregulation
is far from harmonious, which has consequences for
businessfinancing.Inthefirstplace,thecapitalmarket
islessdeepthaninCapricious Consentwhichpushesup
the financing costs of large companies. And Chinese
investmentinDutchcompaniesiscurbedbyregulation.
Secondly, the stringent regulation of the European
banking sector has reduced the lending capacity of
banks. While this can be partly offset by loans from
UnitedStatesbanks,whichare less strictlyregulated,
DutchSMEswillcontinuetofeelthesqueeze,astheyare
dependentonfinancingfromdomesticbanks.
East versus West
OwingtotherockytraderelationswithChinaandIndia
combined with less integration with Eastern Europe,
both an important, growing import partner and an
emergingexportarea have disappeared. Thisputs the
DutchtradepositionandDutchaffluenceunderpressure.Oneofthemajorbastionsofeconomicgrowthinthepast
twentyyearsintheNetherlandshasbeentoppledi.e.
theinwardprocessingofgoodsfromAsiatotheEuropean
hinterland.Increasedtransatlantictradecanonlypartly
compensateforthisloss,becausefundamentalreforms
to the Dutch economy are slow to be implemented.
Furthermore, an acute shortage of natural resources,
particularly in the West, is impacting negatively on
economicdevelopment.Inthisscenario,Dutchinterna-
tionalcompetitivenessaswellasitslogisticpositionhas
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lostmuchground.TheattractivenessofNetherlandsasa
location for basing business is also reduced, due to
factorsincludinginefficientregulation,tightnessonthe
labour market and insufficient private investment in
R&D.AndDutchbusinessesthatareoperatinginternati-
onally are hampered by the fragmented regulatory
frameworksbetweenthetwopowerblocks.Mergersand
acquisitionsaretime-consumingandexpensive,leading
to an increasing number of loosely arranged joint
ventures that are less efficient and less profitable.
Attempts to access the sales market in the opposingpowerblockareopposedbymeansoftheextraregula-
tion.Becauseitwillbedifficultforlargecorporationsin
the Netherlands to operate in this environment, the
suppliers,theSMEswonthaveiteasyeither.
Technologicalprogressislimitedinthisscenario.Owing
toalackofknowledgeexchange,limitedsalesfieldsand
thepartialprotectionofpatents,privateinvestmentin
R&Disnegligible.Governmentsarepromotinginnova-
tionintheirowntradeblockbysettingupR&Dcentres
withthehelpofsubsidies.Atthesametime,therivalry
betweenthetwo tradeblocks isanenormouscatalyst
foranumberofindustries,suchastheweaponsindustry,
spacetravelandmedicaltechnology.
Structure of the economy
Duringthenexttwentyyears,theDutcheconomywill
growatonlyapiecemealpace,atarateoflessthan1%
perannum.Thedisappearanceofsalesmarketsaswell
as the poor development of competitiveness will be
mainlytoblame.The lack of globaltradeagreementsand thereform of theEuropean common agricultural
policywillcontributetoadeteriorationofinternational
competitivenessintheDutchagriculturalsector.Agricul-
turalexportsoutsidetheEuropeanUnion(circa20%of
totalexports) andagricultural imports ofanimal feed
productswillbehamperedbyprotectionistmeasures.
Thankstoitspre-eminentknowledgebase,however,the
sector will have succeeded in maintaining it strong
positionontheEuropeanmarket, thereforeremaining
stableonbalance.
The industrial sector in theNetherlands, traditionally
export oriented, will suffer due to the protectionist
measuresinthisscenarioandthedifficultyinaccessing
the sales markets in the eastern trade block. Dutch
industry will also have to battle with a shortage of
naturalresources,accompaniedbyrisingcommodities
pricesandmoreexpensivefinancing.Consequently,the
sectorwillhavetofocusonproducinghigh-endgoods
andonservicingnichemarkets.Inthisscenariothatwill
be more of a challenge than in Capricious Consent
althoughthegovernment-subsidisedR&Dcentresmayhelp somewhat. InSlow Strife production will remain
fairly stable,givena rise in labourproductivity,which
willalsoleadtoadeclineinemploymentintheindustrial
sector(figure 15).
The construction sector is struggling and is losing
ground.Becausetherisein thenumberof households
andincomegrowtharelow,demandforbuyinghousesis
fallingback.Theloweconomicgrowth,combinedwith
Figure 15: Employment and labour productivity by sector
in 2030
The size of the balls in the figure indicates the size of the sector in
terms of added value. This added value is determined by the deploy-
ment of labour and capital. The X axis represents the average change
in labour productivity per annum in the 2010-2030 period. The Y axis
indicates the average annual change in employment in the 2010-2030
period.
Source: Rabobank
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anunfavourableclimateforbasingbusiness,haspushed
downinvestmentincommercialproperty.Construction
is further hampered in this scenario by inefficient
regulationandunsatisfactorylicensingpolicy.
The services sector showsa fluctuating development.
While the transatlantic market has led to growth in
services inparticular, the lack of reform in theDutch
economymeansitisnotcompetitiveorflexibleenough
to benefit from this trend. The services that mostly
depend on the domesticmarket, such as commercial
services,aregrowinginapiecemealfashion.Thesameis
truefortheretailtrade.In2030,Dutchhouseholdswill
havescarcelymoredisposableincomethantoday,which
means totalmarket volumewill have expanded little.
However,communicationswillstillbeagrowthmarket.
Andtradeandtransportwillfarebetterinthisscenario
thaninAgile Antipoles,althoughthegrowthratewillbe
lowerthaniscurrentlythecase,onaccountofthelower
levelofworldtrade.
In2030therewillbemoreemploymentinthegovern-
mentandhealthcaresectorsthanin2010.Theshareof
thepublicsectorin totalemploymentwillincreaseby
5% (figure 16). Inparticular, spending onhealthcare,
education and innovation will rise, with increasing
financialproblemsforthegovernmentasaresult.The
healthcaresectorwillbemarkedbyahybridmixtureof
marketforcesandstateintervention.Forexample,new
technology,originatingfromtheUnitedStates,willnot
beentirelyfinancedbypublicfunds.However,thiswill
leadtoincreasedbureaucracy,curbingthehopeforrise
inproductivity.
Figure 16: Employment development by sector
Source: Rabobank
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Wolters Kluwer was formed in 1987 from a merger of the publishing
company founded in 1889 by educator Aebele Kluwer, and Wolters
Samsom (a combination of the publishers Wolters, Noordhoff andSamsom). By 2010, after a series of international acquisitions and
expansion, Wolters Kluwer has evolved into a global, modern,
professional (online) information and software services provider,
servicing many professional fields, including the legal, fiscal, financial,
administrative, HRM, medical and commercial professions.
Twenty years ago, clients received everything on paper. Since then,
the importance of online and software products has grown
exponentially. Now, 55% of our turnover is electronically based. Only
about a third is paper-based. The remainder consists of services
related to internet and software. No matter what part of the world
our clients are in, they want more solutions for better, more efficient
and more accurate work processes. For instance, a surgeon wants to
be able to use a system to record what has just taken place in the
operating theatre and to complete the invoice directly. We convert the details into a workflow. For
the hospital, the advantage is that part of the back-office can be reduced as many administrative
processes are no longer necessary. At the same time this growing diversity means building a
relationship with the client. Finding out how the client wants to receive the information. In what
format? And what are the priorities? The client becomes an increasingly important player in the
entire process. We conduct a lot of research with and about the end user. Because it is the client
who determines a major part of the end product, it is important to involve him as much as possiblein the process. You need to know how the client thinks and translate that into software and
content. This is what makes Wolters Kluwer so unique, and what keeps clients loyal to us. Every
year more and more people are renewing their subscription to us, mostly through a positive
response to electronic products. This is where growth is - which also has a cultural dimension.
Americans and Asians are generally more willing to go digital. The drive in our clients to constantly
stay up to date is crucial to our existence.
Boudewijn Beerkens (Wolters Kluwer)
Translating clients preferences into
solutions makes Wolters Kluwer unique
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Forward
Harmonious-evolutionary
This world is characterised by a strong commitment to improve the effectiveness
of international organisations and to tackle cross-border issues in the area of
energy and climate management and security. At the same time, decision-
making progresses slowly, because so many interested parties are involved.
Consensus is sought on virtually all issues, which holds up the entire process of
seeking solutions. Technological breakthroughs are few and far between and
focus mainly on improving production processes.
Multilateral consultation structure
Europe: no political integration
International commitment
Emphasis on process innovation
Scarcity of natural resources
Regulated food supply
Harmony
Conflict
Evolution
Revolution
Flowingly Forward
Slow Strife
Capricious Consent
Agile Antipoles
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The West reaches out
By2030, China, India,BrazilandRussiahave evolved
into influentialworld players (figure 17). TheChinese
governmenthassucceededinembracinganopendoor
policy, without jeopardising thepoliticalmonopoly of
theCommunistParty. India is able toprofit from the
ongoingdivisionoflabourthroughknowledgetechno-
logyandinvestmentininfrastructure.Atthesametime,
however, the country is still combating security
problems,environmentalpollutionandover-population.
China and India are engaged in rivalry over exerting
influence in the regionandaroundthe IndianOcean,withitsstrategicshippingroutesfortradeandthefood
andenergysupply.In2030,Russiastillhasnosepara-
tionofpowersorTrias Politica.Thecountrywasandisa
steered democracy with a steered economy, but is
regardedasastableandreliablesupplierofenergy.In
Latin-America,Brazilseffortstoengineeraneconomic
unionarecurbedbypoliticalinstabilityandfragilelaw
enforcementintheregion.
In2030,theUnitedStatesisstilltheworldseconomic,
politicalandmilitarysuperpower.TogetherwithEurope,
Americaiswillingtosupportnewglobalplayersininter-
national organisations and forums, allowing them
greaterinfluence.In2015aninitialroundofdiscussions
commences,withaviewtoreformingtheUNSecurity
Council.In2027,Brazil,JapanandIndiahaveacquired
permanent seats with veto rights. After 26 years of
negotiations, Russia has been admitted to the World
Trade Organisation. Illustrative of the Western olive
branchistheclosecollaborationbetweenNATO,Russia
and China with a view to resolving conflicts such asthoseintheMiddleEastandCentralAsia.
In2025asupra-nationalsupervisorissetup,inwhich
theInternationalMonetaryFundandtheBankofInter-
nationalSettlementsaresubsumed.Thisisinresponse
tothedissatisfactionofnewworldplayersconcerning
their ceremonial role in the International Monetary
Fund.Fiveyearslater,in2030,thankstotheeffortsof
thenewglobalpowers,anewworldtradeagreementis
Figure 17: New powers appearing on the world stage
Source: Rabobank
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signedatlast.Butbecauseitwilltakeuntilthenforthe
newagreement totake effect, therewill benobreak-
through in international free trade in agricultural
productsduringthecomingtwodecades.
Political integration in Europe - a bridge too far
Inresponsetothefinancialcrisis,theEuropeanUnion
has further deepened its monetary and economic
integration.Nationalmarkets for energy, services and
government spending have been openedup. A sound
internal market plus harmonised regulation havereinforcedEuropeancompetitivenessandmadeEurope
intoamajoreconomicplayerontheglobalstage.Croatia
joinedtheEuropeanUnionin2017,whilerelationswith
Turkeyarebeingintensified(figure 18).
By contrast, political integration is proceeding less
smoothly. Within the European Union, France and
Germanyareheadinginitiativestoachieveclosercoope-
rationintheareasofforeignpolicy,immigrationpolicy,
defenceandsecurity.Thishasledtotheformationofthe
EuropeanCouncilforDefenceandSecurityin2020.
Scarcity of natural resources: putting a brake on
sustainable growth
Thedepletionoffossilfuelsvirtuallycomestoaheadin
2030.Peakoilisnowbehindus.Becausethegeo-political
landscapehasbeen relatively stable for twenty years,
theenergyshortagehassofarnotbecomeexplosive.For
thepasttwodecadesgovernmentshavebeenoccupied
with creating a climate that stimulates the long-terminvestmentrequiredtodevelopenergy-savingtechnolo-
gies. By 2030, the permitted level of CO2 emissions
arounda third lower thanthe level in 2000; this has
been brought aboutbyhighCO2 leviesandexpensive
CO2 rights;manyprocessesarealreadylowcarbonor
evennocarbon.Cradletocradleisthenorm.
China,theUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionentered
a collaboration ten years previously in the area of
Figure 18: European Union in 2030
Source: Rabobank
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energy-saving technology, which is financed by the
Chinesesovereignwealthfund,ChinaInvestmentCorpo-
ration.Althoughthisinitiativegoesa longwaytowards
reducingenergyintensity,itisnotsufficienttosubstan-
tiallylowerdependenceonfossilfuelsandothernatural
resources.Highenergycostsmeanitiscost-effectiveto
use biomass (such as plant or animal residues) for
non-foodapplications.Thefocusonabiobasedeconomy
constitutesonlyapartialsolutiontotheenergyproblem.
Evenwithsubstantialgovernmentsupport,onlyasmall
partoftheeconomycanbebiobasedby2030.
Food certainty through regulation
The steady economic growth and the growing world
populationmeannot onlymoredemandfor food,but
demand for a different type of food, due to dietary
change.However,thescopeforadditionalfoodproduc-
tionislimited,andasisthecasewithpopulationgrowth,
is unequally distributed throughout theworld.At the
sametime,thereisoptimalinternationalcoordinationin
tacklingthefoodshortageproblem.Multilateralorgani-
sations, including theFood andAgriculture Organisa-
tion,theWorldBankandtheWorldTradeOrganisation
haveabroadsupportbasewiththeinvolvementofmany
countries.Accordingly, thereis support forthe forma-
tion of a strategic supply fund of agricultural staples
includinggrainsand oil seeds.Theaimis topromotestabilityinthefoodmarketsandmitigatetheeffectsof
price shocks on basic foodstuffs. The additional food
requiredforthegrowingandchangingglobaldemand
willbecreatedviainnovation,leadingtohigheryields
fromtheexistingproduction.
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Business as usual
For companies, this scenario can best be described as business as usual. A shortage of
labour and of natural resources is only being partially addressed. Capital flows are being
subjected to regulation at the expense of new profitable investment opportunities. That
said, companies are able to operate in an environment of economic stability and flourishing
world trade. Better use is being made of existing ICT applications. In this scenario, the
commercial services sector is performing better than average, while the industrial and
agricultural sectors show only limited growth. Thus we see a continuation of a process that
has already been ongoing for several decades.
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Figure 19: Opportunities for companies
The surface area indicates the extent of the opportunities contained in
the dimensions that determine the environment of companies. The
higher the score on a specific dimension, the greater the opportunities
or the smaller the constraints.
Source: Rabobank
Labour market reforms go ahead
From a European and international perspective, the
government finds itself impelled to introduce labour
marketreforms,inordertoincreaseworkforcepartici-
pation.Whilethesereformshavebeenannounced,the
transitionphaseislengthy,becauseofadelayinreaching
agreement among all the parties involved. In this
scenario, solutions are sought in the consultation
process,ratherthanindecisivegovernmentaction.The
pensionableageintheNetherlandsonlyrisesto68 in
2040.Consequently,workforceparticipationbywomen
andolderagegroupsinparticularrisesonlygradually.
Businesseswill have toinvest considerablyin recruit-mentinordertoreplacetheoutflowofworkers.Inorder
tocompensate for population ageing, educated young
migrants from Turkey, the Middle-East and Asia are
welcomedintothelabourforce.Twentyyearsfromnow,
a significant percentage of the population will be
employedinthehigh-endknowledgesector,specialising
in services, such as ICT, accountancy and finance.
BecausetheEuropeaninternalmarketisfullyintegrated
andthe international environment isstable,it will be
relativelyeasyfor(highlyeducated)employeestotake
upemploymentworldwide.WiththeintegrationofICT
applications continually improving, itwill bepossible
for most companies to allow distance working and
flexibleworkinghours.Thelabourmarketisgradually
evolvingintoaflexiblemarket.
The government ensures a well educated workforce.
However,withastillgeneroussocialsecuritynetwork,
theincentiveforschoolingisnogreaterthanisnowthe
case.Thisresultsina certainincomegap,butisalsoacurbonthegrowthpotentialoftheDutcheconomy.
Scarcityofnaturalresourcesandregulatedcapitalflows
Thescarcityofnaturalresourcesalmostreachesahead
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