Fracking’ - Shale gas extraction · fracking is needed to avoid the UK’s carbon budgets being...

03/2017

Oliver - Fracking 1

‘Fracking’ - Shale gas extraction

Potential impacts on UK ecosystems

Tom Olivert.oliver@reading.ac.uk@Dr_Dolittle_81

What is fracking?• Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking = technique

designed to recover gas or oil from shale rock• Water, sand and chemicals injected into the rock at

high pressure forcing natural gas out

Image: BBC

1.5-3km vertical & 1.4-3km horizontal well, with 150-250m stimulated vertical fractures

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Oliver - Fracking 2

Case study: Preston Road, LancashireSurface Footprint Four exploratory wells, access road, pipeline to

gas grid network, and associated infrastructure

Source: Cuadrilla, Preston New Road, Lancashire Environmental Impact Assessment

Case study: Preston Road, LancashireSurface Footprint

2.5 hectare site footprint (c. 2 football pitches)

Source: Cuadrilla, Preston New Road, Lancashire Environmental Impact Assessment

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80 buried seismic monitoring stations (100m depth) &10 surface monitoring stations

Vehicles: typical well may need 4,300-6,600 truck trips for transportation of equipment, fluid, sand and other materials (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change)

c. 14-51 vehicle movements per day over 32-145 weeks (AMEC,2013)

Belowground footprint

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Source DECC Source RSPB

Protest action

• Opinion poll• Images

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Oliver - Fracking 5

Public opinion on UK fracking• March 2016 government survey, n = 2015 respondents

Source: DECC Public Attitudes Tracker – Wave 17

It’s ‘unnatural’…https://www.flightradar24.com/multiview/51.75,0.13/8

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Precautionary approaches…?

‘Fast-track’ fracking

• “The country will be going all out for shale”- David Cameron, 2014

• Aim to “fast-track” shale gas planning applications in England through a “dedicated planning process”. So that fracking, as a “national priority”, isn’t “frustrated by slow and confused decision making”-

Joint announcement from Rudd and Greg Clark, secretary of state at the department of communities and local government (DCLG).

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Oliver - Fracking 7

‘Fast-track’ fracking

Potential ecological impacts

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Noise• Mesa Verde National Park, Colorado, noise levels were 34.8

decibel above ambient nosie, and 56.8 dBA nearest to compressors (‘Safe’ noise levels: 55 dBA US EPA, 85 dBA UK)

A synthesis of two decades of research documenting the effects of noise on wildlife (Shannon et al, 2015, Biological reviews)

The majority of studies documented effects from noise, including altered vocal behaviour to mitigate masking, reduced abundance in noisy habitats, changes in vigilance and foraging behaviour, and impacts on individual fitness and the structure of ecological communities.

This literature survey shows that terrestrial wildlife responses begin at noise levels of approximately 40 dBA, and 20% of papers documented impacts below 50 dBA.

Light pollution• Plans in Weald basin included 45-m derrick to be lit 24 hrs per day• Concerns over bat species e.g. barbastelle bats (RSPB)• “There is potential for some aspect of life and its rhythms – migration,

reproduction, feeding – to be affected by artificial light. A well known example is the effect on the feeding of bats caused by insects clustering around outdoor light sources” (Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 2009)

• E.g. Lesser horseshoe bats found that bat activity substantially reduced with no habituation (Stone, 2009, Current Biology)

• Artificial lighting reduces emergence time and impacts body mass and size of juvenile bats (Boldogh et al . 2007, Acta Chiropterlogica)

Drilling rig, Colorado, US

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• Potential impacts on vulnerable areas (e.g. chalk stream catchments)

• Impacts on aquatic invertebrates and fish

Water use

• Estimated 9 million m3 year-1 water (DECC)

• UK total abstraction = 11,399 million m3 year-1

Source: RSPB/EA

“....where water is inshort supply, there may not be enoughavailable from public water supplies,or the environment, to meet therequirements for hydraulic fracturing” (Water UK)

Water use

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Water use

• Potential impacts on vulnerable areas (e.g. chalk stream catchments)

• Impacts on aquatic invertebrates and fish

Water pollution• Contamination of drinking water from methane and fluids in

stimulated fractures unlikely (Davies, 2012, Marine and Petroleum Geology)

E.g. Acorn Fork creek, Kentucky, US- spill of hydraulic fracturing fluid led to low pH (5.6) & toxic concentrations of heavy metals causing aquatic invertebrate and fish die-off (including endangered blacksi)

Most drinking water aquifers at c. 300m depth

588m maximum vertical height of stimulated fractures (Davies, 2012)

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• But leakage from well casings or flowback fluids can contaminate soil and groundwater

E.g. Methane concentrations in Pennsylvania and NewYorkhigher near active gas extraction wells (Osborne et al, 2011, PNAS)

• But leakage from well casings or flowback fluids can contaminate soil and groundwater

E.g. Methane concentrations in Pennsylvania and NewYorkhigher near active gas extraction wells (Osborne et al, 2011, PNAS)

E.g. Acorn Fork creek, Kentucky, US- spill of hydraulic fracturing fluid led to low pH (5.6) & toxic concentrations of heavy metals causing aquatic invertebrate and fish die-off (including endangered blackside dace) (Papoulias and Velasco, 2013, Southeastern Naturalist)

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Habitat loss

The cumulative impact of multiple fracking sites should be considered during government environmental assessments. All fracking activity should be subject to environmental impact assessment requirements- UK Environmental Audit Committee recommendations around the safe exploitation of UK shale gas resources

(RSPB)

Coal seam gas, Queensland, Australia

Habitat loss

Sources: AMEC 2013 & UK Gov report- Shale Gas Rural Economy Impacts

Estimated number of UK wells:

DECC IOD Ricardo CuadrillaNumber of well pads

120-360 50 580-12,478 190-800

c. Area: 360-1080ha

150 ha 1750-37,400 570-2,400

Footballpitches (low)

504 70 2450 266

Footballpitches (upper)

1,512 70 52,360 3,360

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https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/408977/RFI6751_Draft_Shale_Gas_Rural_economy_impact_paper.pdf

UK Gov report- Shale Gas Rural Economy Impacts

UK Environmental Audit Committee: “The government report on the impacts of shale gas in the rural economy, published only in heavily redacted form, should be released in full “as soon as possible”

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Prioritising locationsAvoiding areas of high ecological value

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‘Citizen science’ schemes

20021962

Pre 1940

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Trends in UK biodiversity Between 1970 and 2013, 56% of species declined, with 40% showingstrong or moderate declines; 44% of species increased, with 29% showingstrong or moderate increases

Of the nearly 8,000 species assessed using modern Red List criteria,15% are extinct or threatened with extinction from Great Britain.

Mapping biodiversityAn ‘ecological status’ indicator

Case study 1

03/2017

Tools are needed to assess biodiversity value

There is a need to produce reliable information on species richness:

• For land management (large infrastructure projects, biodiversity offsetting)• For national accounting (devolved governments, UK Natural Capital Committee) • For international reporting (IPBES)

Traditional methods based on priority species are limited...

Motivation

Tools are needed to assess biodiversity value

Species records collected by trained volunteers represent a highly valuable but under-utilised resource

However, there are methodological issues with recorder effort.......

Methods

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Neighbourhoods defined by proximity and floristic similarity in the FRESCALO software

FRESCALO

We used a program called FRESCALO (Hill 2012) to account for recorder effort.Species richness assessed across 12 taxonomic groups from 1970-1990 and 2000-2013

Groups: Bees, birds, bryophytes, butterflies, carabids, hoverflies, isopods, ladybirds, moths, crickets and grasshoppers, vascular plants

>5500 species in total across c. 2500 UK 10km2 hectads

Using biological records to map ecological status

Plant species richness a) uncorrected and b) FRESCALO- corrected

Methods

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Species richness scores are then standardised within each environmental zone (dividing by maximum richness).....

and a mean taken across all 11 taxonomic groups

UK Environmental zones based on abiotic conditions (Bunce et al. 2007)

Using biological records to map ecological status

Trends in ecological status over time

1970-1990 2000-2013 Change

The method may be useful to account for biodiversity change over time.....

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To aid restoration.....

Helps to identify areas for potential restoration, e.g. Increasing connectivity of high-biodiversity areas (cf. NEWP)

Spatial patterns in ecological status

65% of UK areas open fracking licences have above average ecological status

Spatial patterns in ecological status

To help prioritise land use for large-scale projects......

e.g. Shale gas extractionHousing developments

Ultimately, finer spatial resolution maps would be helpful.

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https://eip.ceh.ac.uk/apps/ecostatus/

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Recommendations1. Integrate biodiversity value into initial site

scoping phase2. Monitor ecological impacts (BACI)

Impact pathways

FRACKING BIODIVERSITY

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Impact pathways

CLIMATE CHANGE

Health/ livelihood impacts

Shale gas and climate targets

UK target: 80 emissions reductions by 2050 (UK Climate Change Act, 2008)

Global target: limit mean global temperature rise to 2°C (ideally 1.5°C)

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Shale gas and climate targets“Our results suggest that, globally, a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80 per cent of current coal reserves should remain unused from 2010 to 2050 in order to meet the target of 2 °C. “ (McGlade & Ekins, Nature, 2015)

“Ultimately fracking cannot be compatible with our long-term commitments to cut climate changing emissions unless full-scale carbon capture and storage technology is rolled out rapidly, which currently looks unlikely.”

“A moratorium on the extraction of unconventional gas through fracking is needed to avoid the UK’s carbon budgets being breached in the 2020s and beyond.” House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee (EAC)

• 3.6–7.9% of CH4 from shale gas production escapes to the atmosphere, owing primarily to venting and leaks over the lifetime of a well (Howarth, 2011, Climatic Change)

• Shale gas can only improve upon coal-fired generators if CH4 leakage rate is below 3.2% (Karion et al. 2013, Geophysical Research Letters)

Shale gas and climate targets

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Impact pathways

CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate changeWarming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia

IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers

Long-term projected changes in climatic means (IPCC)

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Climate change

Oliver et al. Biol. Cons., 2016

Project change in climatic suitability for red-shanked bumblebee

Climate change

Pearce Higgins at al. Natural England Report - Research on the assessment of risks & opportunities for species in England as a result of climate change (NECR175)

03/2017

Climate changeWarming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia

It is virtually certain that there will be more frequent hot and fewer cold temperature extremes over most land areas on daily and seasonal timescales as global mean temperatures increase. It is very likely that heat waves will occur with a higher frequency and duration

IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers

UK extreme weather 2013

UK Dec 2013

Lincoln Dec 2013

N. Wales Dec 2013

County Down, Ireland, Dec 2013

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Somerset Feb 2014 Cornwall Feb 2014

Devon Feb 2014UK, Jan, 2014

Carrbridge, Scotland, Aug 2014

Ullapool, Scotland, Aug 2014 Moray, Scotland, Aug 2014

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Skegness, July 2015

Wimbledon, July 2015

Newhaven, Dec 2015

Cumbria, Dec 2015

Carlisle, Dec 2015

Bury, Dec 2015

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2017….2018…20189?(and the impacts of these altered

conditions on wildlife?)

Standardised population monitoringButterfly Monitoring Schemes• First UK scheme set up 1976• C. 2500 transects (1200 active)• 768,780km of butterfly transects walked-

equivalent to a trip to the Moon!

Image credit: van Swaay

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Adonis bluePolyommatusbelargus

40 yr trend: -17%

Lulworth skipper Thymelictus acteon 40 yr trend: -76%

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Comma Polygonia c-album

40 yr trend: +150%

Green hairstreak Callophrys rubi

40 yr trend: -41%

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Orange tipAnthocharis cardamines

40 yr trend: +10%

Small copper Lycaena phlaeas 40 yr trend: -37%

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Predicted climate change impacts

CURRENT BAMBU SCENARIO 2050

e.g. Species distribution/ bioclimate modelling

• 1995 drought event in the UK• Many plant and insect species negatively affected (Morecroft et al., 2002, GEB)

Aphantopus hyperantus

Most Ringlet populations (84%) crashed following the 1995 drought (shown is an example from a single site)

Interactions between extreme weather and land use

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Six butterfly species suffered significant declines following the 1995 UK drought event

Oliver et al. (2015) Nature Climate Change

Interactions between climate change and land use

Sensitivity and recovery are affected by landscape structure

The landscape around sites affects species’ responses to extreme events. Potentially allowing us to ‘adapt’ landscapes to climate change

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RESULTS #1

• Sensitivity to drought greater with lower woodland area and increased fragmentation (in terms of number of patches and the ‘edginess’ of each woodland patch)

(Oliver, Brereton & Roy. 2013, Ecography)

SENSITIVITY

• Woodland area effect strongest at 1km scale.• Woodland configuration effect strongest at 2km scale.

RESULTS #2

• Recovery from drought slower with increased woodland fragmentation (in terms of number of patches and the isolation of each woodland patch)

• Both effects strongest at 2km scale.

RECOVERY

(Oliver, Brereton & Roy. 2013, Ecography)

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Impact pathways

CLIMATE CHANGE

Impact pathways

CLIMATE CHANGE

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Six butterfly species suffered significant declines following the 1995 UK drought event • We predicted responses to future severe droughts based on observed sensitivity

and recovery times• Both were modelled as a function of semi-natural habitat area and fragmentation

Predicted impacts of climate change

Four RCP emissions scenarios

17 Global Circulation Models from IPCC CMIP5 database (2014)

1995 observed aridity

Aridity index = –(Pi–P)/σ+0.5(Ti–T)/σ

(Marsh et al, 2004, Weather)

Projected changes in summer aridity

Predicted impacts of climate change

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1995 observed aridity

Projected changes in summer aridity

Scenarios of habitat fragmentation

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Predicted impacts on drought-sensitive species

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Background• Species association with warm- or cold- locations can

be assessed using a ‘species temperature index’ (STI)• The balance of warm- versus cold- associated species

tends to increase over time with climate warming (Devictor et al, 2012)

Bird and butterfly community impacts

(Oliver et al GCB in press )

Intensive land use accelerates the loss of cold associated birds and butterflies

Cold associated (Low STI species)

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(Oliver et al GCB in press )

Intensive land use limits ability of warm associated birds to increaseWarm- associated

(High STI species)

• Climate change predicted to have negative impacts on a significant proportion of our flora and fauna

• Land use and climate change interact to determine impacts on wildlife

• Conversely, these climate-land use interactions also provide opportunities to adapt to climate change

Summary

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Impact pathways

CLIMATE CHANGE

Impact pathways

CLIMATE CHANGE

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Conclusions • The cumulative impact of multiple fracking sites

should be considered during government environmental assessments. All fracking activity should be subject to environmental impact assessment requirements (EAC recommendations around the safe exploitation of UK shale gas resources)

Conclusions/ key recommendations

Source: RSPB report: Are we Fit to Frack- Policy recommendations for a robust regulatory framework for the shale gas industry in the UK

RSPB Key recommendations:

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Conclusions/ key recommendations

1. Consider the bigger picture (better reconcile multiple policy objectives)

2. Integrate biodiversity value into initial site scoping phase

3. Monitor ecological impacts (BACI)

Thanks!

Acknowledgements: RSPB, David Roy, Chris Thomas, Jane Hill, Tom Brereton, Richard Fox, Colin Beale, Constanti Stefanescu, Simon Gillings, Harry Marshall, Chris Huntingford, Christel Prudhomme, Melanie Gibbs, John Day, Marc Botham, Mike Morecroft

t.oliver@reading.ac.uk @Dr_Dolittle_81

03/2017

Further Information sources

• DEC licensing areas https://www.gov.uk/guidance/offshore-energy-strategic-environmental-assessment-sea-an-overview-of-the-sea-process

• RSPB reports https://www.rspb.org.uk/our-work/our-positions-and-campaigns/positions/climatechange/action/ukenergy/fit-to-frack.aspx

• Shale Gas Rural Economy Impacts Redacted government report https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/408977/RFI6751_Draft_Shale_Gas_Rural_economy_impact_paper.pdf

• Carbon Brief webpages https://www.carbonbrief.org/mps-brand-fracking-incompatible-with-uk-climate-targets

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A decision framework for climate change adaptation

Case study 2

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General climate change adaptation principles:Hopkins et al. 2007; Huntley 2007; Mitchell et al. 2007;

Smithers et al. 2008; Mawdsley et al. 2009

But unclear which actions should take priority, which inhibits application of principles (Heller & Zavaleta 2009 ; Perkins et al. 2007)

Climate change adaptation

For example:

• Manage for habitat heterogeneity

• Create buffer zones around high quality habitats

• Improve matrix for landscape permeability

• Translocate species at risk of extinction

(Hopkins et al. 2007; Huntley 2007; Smithers et al. 2008; Mawdsley et al. 2009)

MONITOR

RESTORE/ CREATE HABITAT

(ADJACENT)

IN-SITU MANAGEMENT

MANAGE MATRIX

TRANSLOCATE EX-SITU ACCEPT LOSS

BUFFER EDGE IMPACTS

(NEARBY)

(OTHER SITES)

Adaptation actions collated

Priority depends on species- and

site- context

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Context-dependency for adaptation actions

Appropriate actions depend upon:

1. Climatic zone (‘Adversely sensitive’, ‘Climate Overlap’, ‘New Climate Space’)

2. Landscape characteristics (e.g. habitat fragmentation)

3. Species/ populations attributes (e.g. population size, dispersal capacity)

Better

Bigger

Joined

Translocate/ ex situ

The Decision FrameworkNEW CLIMATE SPACE

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The Decision FrameworkNEW CLIMATE SPACE

CLIMATE OVERLAP

The Decision Framework

CLIMATE OVERLAP

NEW CLIMATE SPACE

ADVERSELY SENSITIVE

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Classified from ‘High Risk’ to ‘High Benefit’ (Thomas et al. 2011 MEE )

KEY SIMILARITIES

1. Need for monitoring and research2. Importance of in-situ management

KEY DIFFERENCES

1. Increased focus on actions in New Climate Space and less in Adversely Sensitive Areas

2. Different balance of actions (e.g. Buffer edge impacts versus matrix management)

Application of the decision framework for 30 threatened UK speciesComparison of recommended actions with existing conservation

actions (JNCC) that do not explicitly account for changing climate

Extending the work

Oliver, T.H., et al. (2016). Are existing biodiversity conservation strategies appropriate in a changing climate? Biological Conservation, 193, 17-26

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