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Future of Hydrogeology in Alberta
Gordon MacMillan1, Jens Schumacher1, and Kevin Hayley1, 2
1. Fluid Domains Inc.
2. Groundwater Solutions PTY LTD
Hydrogeology support tailored to your needs
Is the hydrogeologic community on the right track to improve the management of groundwater?
Presentation Purpose
Measure successful management by:
1) Protection of people and environment2) Economic efficiency
• As a modeller I believe that the exercise of trying to predict the future results in better planning and decision making.
• I also believe this is equally true for development of:• Business plans
• A water strategy for a SAGD project
• Provincial guidelines
Presentation Purpose
Prediction uncertainty does not invalidate the exercise of making predictions.
Presentation Context
Example: Celestial navigation
• Earliest reference in 8th century BC LONG HISTORY
• Long voyages and limited supplies on shipHIGHEST CONSEQUENCES
• Success led to trade advantage and fameHIGH REWARDS
• Wikipedia description of history of navigation “… the art of directing vessels upon the open sea through the establishment of its position and course by means of traditional practice, geometry, astronomy, or special instruments.”MULTI-DISCIPLINARYMIXES TRADITIONAL PRACTICE WITH NEW TECHNOLOGIES IMPERFECT PREDICTIONS THAT WERE IMPROVED OVER TIME
Presentation Context
Unknowns that contribute to prediction uncertainty:
1) current location
2) trajectory
3) speed
Presentation Context
Unknowns that contribute to prediction uncertainty:
1) current location
2) trajectory
3) speed
Strategy for uncertainty:1) Accept error in planning2) Don’t stop exploring or
trading due to uncertainty
3) Continue to improve predictions over time
Presentation Context
Unknowns that contribute to prediction uncertainty:
1) current location
2) trajectory
3) speed
Strategy for uncertainty:1) Accept error in planning2) Don’t stop exploring or
trading due to uncertainty
3) Continue to improve predictions over time
1) Distribution of water in Alberta
2) An incomplete look over time Water use and agricultural activity
Oil and gas activity
Regulatory framework
3) Future of hydrogeology• Challenges
• Tools and methods
• Regulatory framework
Presentation Outline
Changing Water Use
1917 2017 2037
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Pop
ula
tio
n o
f A
lber
ta
Wiki/Finance Alberta
Municipal Cencus
Statistics Canada
1923 Calgary Stampede became an annual event
1969 First manned moon landing
1990’s Beginning of modern internet
1967
73,022
600,000
1,500,000
2,500,000
Changing Water Use
1917 2017 2037
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Pop
ula
tio
n o
f A
lber
ta
Wiki/Finance Alberta
Municipal Cencus
Statistics Canada
SMCC (2014)
SMCC (2014)
SMCC (2014)
1967
Changing Water Balance
Alberta Water Portal (2017):
“In much of southern Alberta, there is not enough rainfall and moisture to naturally sustain agricultural crops.”
“Irrigation for agriculture is the largest user of water in Alberta, accounting for 60 to 65% of all water consumed on average.”
“Irrigation contributes almost 20% of the province’s gross agricultural production on about 5% of Alberta’s cultivated land.”
“It is estimated that the direct and indirect impact of irrigation is worth about $5 billion to the Alberta economy.”
Changing Water Balance
1917 2017 2037
1902 Bow Glacier 2002 Bow Glacier
1896 Peyto Glacier 2011 Peyto Glacier
1967
Young (1996) suggests glaciers contribute:
only 2.5% of total annual flow in Bow River 47% of flow during the summer months of a low flow year like 1970
Changing Water Use
1917 2017 2037
What does it mean?Increased population with decreased water security
More use of groundwater as primary source or backup More concern about groundwater – surface water effects Surface water quality vulnerable in low flow summer months
1967
Oil and Gas Activity – Crude Oil
1917 2017 20371967
Alberta Energy (2016)0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
19
47
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07
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09
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11
20
13
An
nu
al C
rud
e P
rod
uct
ion
(m
3)
Date
Oil and Gas Activity – Well Count
1917 2017 2037
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
19
56
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Wel
l Co
un
t O
per
atin
g at
Yea
r En
d
Date
Conventional Oil Well Bitumen Well Conventional Gas Well CBM and Shale Well Total Wells
1967
Alberta Energy (2016)
Oil and Gas Activity
1917 2017 2037
OIL SANDS TIGHT GASCBM
- Large amount of aging infrastructure- Many issues are unique to discrete areas of the province- Risk to ecology and drinking water is highly variable - Many remote locations i.e. no nearby human receptors
1967
Oil and Gas Activity
1917 2017 2037
What does it mean?Industry needs to work harder over time to produce oil and gas
Strong need for economic efficiency Large amount of infrastructure to be reclaimed As population grows human receptors will encroach upon old
infrastructure
1967
Regulatory Framework
1917 1967 2017 2037
• Water Act (1999) and groundwater diversion guidelines 2003 and 2011
• Groundwater diversion guidelines for CBM 2004• AB Tier 2 Soil and Groundwater Remediation 2009 and 2016• 2006 Water Conservation and Allocation – Oil • Revised water conservation and allocation, new thermal
effects and contact with bitumen pending
Regulatory Framework
1917 1967 2017 2037
• Water Act (1999) and groundwater diversion guidelines 2003 and 2011
• Groundwater diversion guidelines for CBM 2004• AB Tier 2 Soil and Groundwater Remediation 2009 and 2016• 2006 Water Conservation and Allocation – Oil • Revised water conservation and allocation, new thermal
effects and contact with bitumen pending • Guidance on groundwater – surface water Alberta desktop method (2011) is prohibitive for
groundwater use
Regulatory Framework
1917 2017 2037
What does it mean?Is regulatory framework sufficient to enable future success?
Many guidelines have been developed for issues specific to discrete areas of the province
Further adoption of risk assessment approaches Further groundwater – surface water guidance needed Increased sophistication around use of modelling
1967
Future of Hydrogeology
• What are the challenges we will face?
• Do we have the necessary tools and methods for groundwater challenges?
• Is the regulatory framework adequate?
Successful Management of Hydrogeology1) Protection of people and environment2) Economic efficiency
Future of Hydrogeology
Likely Future
Pressures Challenge for Hydrogeologists
Extreme low flow
periods in the
summer
- increased dependency on groundwater
- more concern about groundwater - surface water interactions
- increased risk for spills to affect water quality because of decreased flow
Increased population
- more rural groundwater users
- encroachment of residential developments on industrial areas
- development on brownfield sites
Aging oil and gas
infrastructure
- more spills
- more sites that need to be reclaimed
Future of Hydrogeology
Honest predictions that don’t oversimplify the problem and that include an assessment of prediction uncertainty- Use of inverse methods (e.g. PEST or UCODE) is essential- Consideration of structural uncertainty may require a multimodel approach
Likely Future
Pressures
Undesired
Environmental Future
Future of Low
Economic EfficiencyExtreme low flow
periods in the
summer
- impacts to aquatic ecology
- unsafe water supplies
- increased objections under Water Act
- delayed approvals
Future of Hydrogeology
Regulatory guidance on acceptable groundwater –surface water effects
- Establish instream flow needs (IFN) that consider groundwater withdrawal; and/or
- Aquatic habitat modelling based on regulatory guidance for indicator species
Likely Future
Pressures
Undesired
Environmental Future
Future of Low
Economic EfficiencyExtreme low flow
periods in the
summer
- impacts to aquatic ecology
- unsafe water supplies
- increased objections under Water Act
- delayed approvals
Future of Hydrogeology
Likely Future
Pressures
Undesired
Environmental Future
Future of Low
Economic Efficiency
Increased
population
- impared ecological functions of surface
water
- population at risk from contaminated
sites
- water commonly trucked in or piped in
from other areas
Transparent evaluation of potential water sources- Oilfield injection guidelines do a good job of this
Regulatory guidance on acceptable groundwater – surface water effects
Increased coordination between water professionals- Contaminant hydrogeologist hydrologist
Likely Future
Pressures
Undesired
Environmental Future
Future of Low
Economic Efficiency
Aging oil and gas
infrastructure - impacts to environmental receptors
- aquifers that can no longer be used for
residential or industrial purposes
- never ending site investigations
- few sites reaching closure
Future of Hydrogeology
Honest predictions that don’t oversimplify the problem and that include an assessment of prediction uncertainty
Increased adoption of risk management and risk-based site closure- 2016 improved version of 2009 Alberta Tier 2 Soil and Groundwater Remediation Guidelines
Future of Hydrogeology
1) Honest predictions that don’t oversimplify the problem and that include an assessment of prediction uncertainty
2) Regulatory guidance on acceptable groundwater – surface water effects
3) Increased coordination between water professionals
4) Increased adoption of risk management and risk-based site closure
Non-linear uncertainty analysis
Integrated models Development of IFNs
Predict effects to aquatic receptors
Engagement of other stakeholders
Multimodels Establishing a common language between water professionals
Consideration of structural uncertainty
Improved data exchange
Summary of Message
1917 2017 20371967
1) Accept error in planning
2) Don’t stop making decisions due to uncertainty
3) Continue to improve predictions over time
THANK YOU
Hydrogeology support tailored to your needs
Gordon MacMillan; gmacmillan@fluid-domains.com; 403.462.2007
Jens Schumacher; jschumacher@fluid-domains.com; 403.370.5150
References
Alberta Energy. 2016. Accessed website http://www.energy.alberta.ca/About_Us/3997.asp
Alberta Water Portal. 2017. Website accessed in March 2017. http://albertawater.com/what-is-water-used-for-in-alberta/agriculture-in-alberta
Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. 2017. Data accessed in March 2017. http://www.capp.ca/publications-and-statistics/statistics/statistical-handbook
GlacierChange.org. 2017. Website accessed in March 2017. http://glacierchange.org/scrapbook/peyto-glacier-alberta-2/peyto-glacier-mass-balance-1966-2009/
Science Media Centre of Canada (SMCC). 2014. Alberta’s Bow River: Climate change and human impacts. SMCC Backgrounder.
Young, G.J. 1996. Contribution of Glacier Meltwater to the Flow of the Bow River.
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