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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY2012 2QFY2011 % chg (yoy) 1QFY2012 % chg (qoq)
Net sales 9,699 8,104 19.7 8,867 9.4
EBITDA 1,676 1,433 16.9 1,577 6.2
EBITDA margin (%) 17.3 17.7 (41)bp 17.8 (51)bp
Adj. PAT 1,094 838 30.6 985 11.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
For 2QFY2012, GAIL India’s (GAIL) reported numbers were slightly above our
expectations. Net sales, EBITDA and PAT increased by 19.7%, 16.9% and 30.6%
yoy, respectively. We recommend Buy on the stock.
Robust top-line performance: For 2QFY2012, GAIL’s top line grew by robust
19.7% yoy to ` 9,699cr, above our estimate of ` 8,779cr, mainly due to strong
growth in the natural gas trading (+20.4% yoy), petrochemical (+30.1% yoy)
and LPG segments (+34.2% yoy). EBIT of the natural gas trading, petrochemical
and LPG segments grew by 78.9%, 48.8% and 101.0% yoy, respectively.
However, EBIT of the natural gas transmission and LPG transmission segments
decreased by 22.8% and 8.2% yoy, respectively. GAIL’s EBITDA increased by
16.9% yoy to ` 1,676cr in 2QFY2012. However, EBITDA margin contracted by
41bp yoy to 17.3%. Tax rate decreased to 30.2% in 2QFY2012 compared to
37.8% in 2QFY2011. Consequently, adjusted net profit grew by 30.6% yoy to ` 1,094cr, slightly above our estimate of ` 954cr.
Outlook and valuation: The substantial capex slated ahead for transmission
pipelines could see maximum capitalization on incremental gas production
domestically. However, delays in the ramp-up of NG production at various fields
could prove to be a dampener for the stock. The average marketing margin is
expected to stabilize at current levels in the coming quarters, since GAIL is
allowed to charge trading margins on APM gas. Further, any significant
discovery in any of the prospective exploratory blocks could be a huge trigger for
the stock. We recommend Buy on GAIL with an SOTP target price of `499.
Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Net sales 24,996 32,459 34,080 38,651
% chg 5.1 29.9 5.0 13.4
Net profit 3,140 3,561 4,018 4,512
% chg 12.0 13.4 12.8 12.3
OPM (%) 18.7 16.8 19.2 19.5
EPS (`) 24.8 28.1 31.7 35.6
P/E (x) 17.3 15.3 13.5 12.0
P/BV (x) 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1
RoE (%) 19.8 19.7 19.3 18.7RoCE (%) 22.1 22.4 22.4 22.2
EV/Sales (x) 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.6 9.5 7.6 6.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUYCMP ` 428
Target Price ` 499
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 57.3
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 25.2
FII / NRIs / OCBs 13.4
Indian Public / Others 4.0
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex (6.6) (14.5) 98.7
GAIL (7.0) (13.7) 116.8
Oil & Gas
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap ( ` cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Face Value ( ` )
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
10
17,289
5,202
GAIL.BO
GAIL@IN
54,335
0.5
535/401
99380
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 Ext: 6821
bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
GAIL India
Performance Highlights
2QFY2012 Result Update | Oil & Gas
October 26, 2011
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GAIL | 2QFY2012 Result Update
October 26, 2011 2
Exhibit 1: 2QFY2012 performance (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY2012 2QFY2011 % chg (yoy) 1QFY2012 % chg (qoq)
Net sales 9,699 8,104 19.7 8,867 9.4
COGS 7,224 6,068 19.1 6,790 6.4Total operating expenditure 8,023 6,671 20.3 7,290 10.1
EBITDA 1,676 1,433 16.9 1,577 6.2
EBITDA margin (%) 17.3 17.7 17.8
Other income 116 88 31.6 65 79.4
Depreciation 201 163 23.5 178 12.7
Interest 23 12 92.7 21 8.8
PBT 1,568 1,347 16.4 1,443 8.7
PBT margin (%) 16.2 16.6 16.3
Total tax 474 509 (6.9) 458 3.4
% of PBT 30.2 37.8 31.8
PAT 1,094 838 30.6 985 11.1
Exceptional items - -
Adj. PAT 1,094 838 30.6 985 11.1
PAT margin (%) 11.3 10.3 11.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
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GAIL | 2QFY2012 Result Update
October 26, 2011 3
Exhibit 2: Segmental performance
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY2012 2QFY2011 % chg (qoq) 1QFY2012 % chg (yoy)
NG trading 7,575 6,289 20.4 7,205 5.1
Petrochemical 938 721 30.1 637 47.2LPG & liquid hydrocarbons 989 737 34.2 814 21.5
Transmission – NG 980 979 0.1 939 4.4
Transmission – LPG 110 114 (3.7) 114 (3.8)
Gailtel - - -
Others 26 14 79.9 22 17.1
Total 10617 8855 19.9 9,731 9.1
Less: Inter segmental 918 751 22.3 864 6.3
Sales 9,699 8,104 19.7 8,867 9.4
EBIT
NG trading 287 160 78.9 313 (8.5)
%EBIT 26.4 39.3 23.0
Petrochemical 404 272 48.8 243 66.0
%EBIT 43.1 37.7 38.2
LPG & Liquid hydrocarbons 352 175 101.0 229 54.1
%EBIT 35.6 23.8 28.1
Transmission – NG 556 721 (22.8) 652 (14.7)
% EBIT 56.8 73.6 69.4
Transmission – LPG 72 79 (8.2) 69 4.7
% EBIT 65.8 69.0 60.4
Gailtel - - -
% EBIT - - -
Others (82) (48) 71 (34) 144.2
% EBIT (318.1) (334.7) (152.5)
Total EBIT 1,589 1,358 17.0 1,472 7.9
% EBIT
Less: Interest 23 12 92.7 21 8.8
Less: Unallocable exp (1) 86 - 9 -
Profit before tax 1,568 1,433 9.5 1,443 8.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: 2QFY2012 Actual vs. Angel estimates
(` cr) Actual Estimates Variation (%)
Net sales 9,699 8,779 10.5
EBITDA 1,676 1,519 10.3
EBITDA margin (%) 17.3 17.3 (2)bp
Adj. PAT 1,094 954
Source: Company, Angel Research
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GAIL | 2QFY2012 Result Update
October 26, 2011 4
Top line above expectation, up 19.7% yoy: The company’s top line grew by robust
19.7% yoy to ` 9,699cr, above our estimate of ` 8,779cr, mainly due to strong
growth in the natural gas trading, petrochemical and LPG segments. Gross
revenue of the natural gas trading, petrochemical and LPG segments grew by
20.4%, 30.1% and 34.2% yoy to ` 7,575cr, ` 938cr and ` 989cr, respectively.
Pipeline throughput stood at 120mmscmd in 2QFY2012 compared to
115mmscmd in 2QFY2011. The company’s fuel subsidy burden stood at ` 567cr
in 2QFY2012 compared to ` 347cr in 2QFY2011.
Exhibit 4: Net sales grew by 19.7% yoy
6.4
17.8
30.2
34.736.4
25.0
19.7
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12
( % )
( `
c r )
Net Sales Net Sales growth (RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Subsidy to OMCs
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1 Q F Y 1 0
2 Q F Y 1 0
3 Q F Y 1 0
4 Q F Y 1 0
1 Q F Y 1 1
2 Q F Y 1 1
3 Q F Y 1 1
4 Q F Y 1 1
1 Q F Y 1 2
2 Q F Y 1 2
( `
c r )
Subsidy to OMCs
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Transmission volumes flat yoy
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1 Q
F Y 1 0
2 Q
F Y 1 0
3 Q
F Y 1 0
4 Q
F Y 1 0
1 Q
F Y 1 1
2 Q
F Y 1 1
3 Q
F Y 1 1
4 Q
F Y 1 1
1 Q
F Y 1 2
2 Q
F Y 1 2
( m m s c m d )
NG Transmission volumes
Source: Company, Angel Research
EBITDA up 16.9% yoy: EBIT of the natural gas trading, petrochemical and LPG
segments grew by 78.9%, 48.8% and 101.0% yoy to ` 287cr, ` 404cr and ` 352cr,
respectively. However, EBIT of the natural gas transmission and LPG transmission
segments decreased by 22.8% and 8.2% yoy to ` 556cr and ` 72cr, respectively.
Consequently, GAIL’s EBITDA increased by 16.9% yoy to ` 1,676cr in 2QFY2012.
However, EBITDA margin contracted by 41bp yoy to 17.3%.
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GAIL | 2QFY2012 Result Update
October 26, 2011 5
Exhibit 7: Operating performance
20.220.2
17.715.7
14.3
17.817.3
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12
( % )
( `
c r )
Operating Profit Operating Margins (RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Lower tax rate boosts the bottom line: Tax rate decreased to 30.2% in 2QFY2012
compared to 37.8% in 2QFY2011. Consequently, adjusted net profit grew by
30.6% yoy to ` 1,094cr, slightly above our estimate of ` 954cr. Exhibit 8: Adj. PAT grew 30.6% yoy
44.6
35.2
29.5
12.5
(14.0)
11.0
30.6
(20.0)
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12
( % )
( `
c r )
Adj. PAT Adj. PAT growth ( RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
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GAIL | 2QFY2012 Result Update
October 26, 2011 6
Investment arguments
Volume story yet to unfold: GAIL expects to incur substantial capex in the
transmission segment in view of incremental gas volumes expected from the KG
basin, GSPC, marginal fields and new LNG terminals. However, stagnant
production at KG basin and higher LNG prices are a cause of concern on the
volume front. Nonetheless, we believe GAIL could still be a volume story if KG-D6
resumes its potential production.
Upstream segment could see triggers: GAIL’s asset portfolio includes huge
prospective basins such as Myanmar fields and CBM blocks. We view these blocks
as a potential upside for the stock. Out of the 27 exploratory blocks owned by
GAIL, nine blocks seem to have potential hydrocarbon discoveries. Any material
success in the form of a major discovery could be a huge trigger for the stock.
Outlook and valuation
The substantial capex slated ahead for transmission pipelines could see maximum
capitalization on incremental gas production domestically. However, delays in the
ramp-up of NG production at various fields could prove to be a dampener for the
stock. The average marketing margin is expected to stabilize at current levels in the
coming quarters, since GAIL is allowed to charge trading margins on APM gas.
GAIL also has significant plans in the CGD space. The company plans to bid
aggressively for CGD projects across the country through its wholly owned
subsidiary, GAIL Gas. We believe the CGD business could be a value-accretive
proposition in the long run. Further, any significant discovery in any of the
prospective exploratory blocks could be a huge trigger for the stock.
We recommend Buy on GAIL with an SOTP target price of `499.
Exhibit 9: SOTP valuation (FY2013E)
Business segment (` cr) EV `/share
NG transmission (EV/EBITDA 6.0x) 24,914 196
LPG transmission (EV/EBITDA 6.0x) 2,336 18
NG trading (EV/EBITDA 6.0x) 4,749 37
Petrochemicals (EV/EBITDA 5.5x) 11,033 87
LPG and liquid hydrocarbons (EV/EBITDA 5.5x) 7,593 60
E&P upsides (EV/boe 5.5x) 3,773 30Investments (Book/Market Value X 80%) 6,638 52
Total EV 61,036 481
Net debt (2,208) (17)
Equity value (`) 63,244 499
Source: Company, Angel Research
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GAIL | 2QFY2012 Result Update
October 26, 2011 7
Exhibit 10: Key assumptions
Particulars FY2012E FY2013E
Gas transmission volumes (mmscmd) 120 130
Gas trading volumes (mmscmd) 87 94 Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11: Angel EPS forecast vs. consensus
(`) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)
FY2012E 31.7 33.0 (4.0)
FY2013E 35.6 35.6 (0.1)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 12: Recommendation summary
Company CMP TP Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
(`) (`) (` cr) (%) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E
RIL 873 1,060 Buy 285,979 21 12.4 11.2 1.5 1.3 6.6 5.9 14.0 13.8 11.6 12.2
ONGC 276 326 Buy 236,702 18 8.6 8.0 1.8 1.5 3.8 3.3 21.9 20.4 21.0 19.9
Cairn India 298 - Neutral 56,680 - 9.3 7.4 1.2 1.0 6.1 4.2 14.0 15.3 16.5 18.6
GAIL 428 499 Buy 54,335 16 13.5 12.0 2.4 2.1 7.6 6.6 19.3 18.7 22.4 22.2
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 13: One-year forward P/E
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
A p r -
0 6
O c
t - 0 6
A p r -
0 7
O c
t - 0 7
A p r -
0 8
O c
t - 0 8
A p r -
0 9
O c
t - 0 9
A p r -
1 0
O c
t - 1 0
A p r -
1 1
O c
t - 1 1
S h a r e p r i c e
( ` )
Share price 7x 10x 13x 16x 19x
Source: Company, Angel Research
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GAIL | 2QFY2012 Result Update
October 26, 2011 8
Profit and Loss Statement (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Total operating income 18,008 23,776 24,996 32,459 34,080 38,651
% chg 12.2 32.0 5.1 29.9 5.0 13.4Total Expenditure 14,081 19,711 20,327 27,004 27,550 31,104
Net Raw Materials 11,165 16,452 17,609 22,006 22,450 25,347
Other Mfg costs 728 870 950 2,046 2,088 2,357
Personnel 470 577 621 753 768 867
Other 1,717 1,813 1,147 2,199 2,244 2,533
EBITDA 3,927 4,065 4,669 5,455 6,530 7,547
% chg 31.4 3.5 14.9 16.8 19.7 15.6
(% of Net Sales) 21.8 17.1 18.7 16.8 19.2 19.5
Depreciation& Amortisation 571 560 562 650 939 1,166
EBIT 3,356 3,505 4,107 4,804 5,591 6,381
% chg 39.0 4.4 17.2 17.0 16.4 14.1
(% of Net Sales) 18.6 14.7 16.4 14.8 16.4 16.5
Interest & other Charges 80 87 70 83 106 125
Other Income 556 797 541 519 439 445
(% of PBT) 14.5 18.9 11.8 9.9 7.4 6.6
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 3,833 4,214 4,578 5,240 5,924 6,701
% chg 34.4 9.9 8.6 14.4 13.1 13.1
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -
PBT (reported) 3,833 4,214 4,578 5,240 5,924 6,701
Tax 1,254 1,400 1,439 1,679 1,906 2,188
(% of PBT) 32.7 33.2 31.4 32.0 32.2 32.7
PAT (reported) 2,580 2,814 3,140 3,561 4,018 4,512
Add: Share of earnings of asso. - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -
Prior period items (22) 10 - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 2,601 2,804 3,140 3,561 4,018 4,512
ADJ. PAT 2,601 2,804 3,140 3,561 4,018 4,512
% chg (4.6) 7.8 12.0 13.4 12.8 12.3
(% of Net Sales) 14.4 11.8 12.6 11.0 11.8 11.7
Basic EPS (`) 20.5 22.1 24.8 28.1 31.7 35.6Fully Diluted EPS (̀ ) 20.5 22.1 24.8 28.1 31.7 35.6
% chg 9.0 7.8 12.0 13.4 12.8 12.3
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GAIL | 2QFY2012 Result Update
October 26, 2011 9
Balance Sheet (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 846 1,268 1,268 1,268 1,268 1,268Reserves& Surplus 12,159 13,501 15,655 17,985 21,051 24,549
Shareholders’ Funds 13,005 14,770 16,924 19,253 22,320 25,818
Minority Interest - - - - - -
Total Loans 1,266 1,200 1,480 2,310 2,826 3,321
Deferred Tax Liability 1,320 1,326 1,390 1,633 1,539 1,430
Total Liabilities 15,590 17,296 19,794 23,197 26,685 30,569
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 16,958 17,604 17,904 22,144 30,394 35,894
Less: Acc. Depreciation 8,025 8,554 9,115 9,741 10,680 11,846
Net Block 8,933 9,050 8,789 12,404 19,715 24,049
Capital Work-in-Progress 817 2,426 5,426 5,879 830 380
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 1,491 1,737 2,073 2,583 2,583 2,583
Current Assets 10,410 12,237 13,884 11,146 13,883 14,691
Cash 4,473 3,456 4,343 2,131 5,065 5,529
Loans & Advances 4,237 6,621 7,606 6,250 6,250 6,250
Other 1,700 2,159 1,935 2,765 2,568 2,912
Current liabilities 6,060 8,155 10,378 8,815 10,325 11,133
Net Current Assets 4,350 4,082 3,506 2,331 3,558 3,558
Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 15,590 17,296 19,794 23,197 26,685 30,569
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GAIL | 2QFY2012 Result Update
October 26, 2011 10
Cash Flow (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Profit before tax 3,855 4,204 4,578 5,240 5,924 6,701
Depreciation 571 560 562 650 939 1,166Change in Working Capital 657 (749) 1,463 (893) 1,707 464
Less: Other income (556) (797) (541) (436) (427) (429)
Direct taxes paid (1,253) (1,394) (1,375) (1,484) (1,906) (2,188)
Cash Flow from Operations 3,274 1,824 4,687 3,077 6,237 5,714
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (905) (2,256) (3,300) (4,632) (3,201) (5,050)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (27) (246) (336) (509) - -
Other income 556 797 541 412 439 445
Cash Flow from Investing (376) (1,706) (3,095) (4,729) (2,761) (4,605)
Issue of Equity - - - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (72) (66) 280 984 516 495
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (989) (1,039) (1,113) (1,109) (951) (1,015)
Others (25) (31) 287 (263) (106) (125)
Cash Flow from Financing (1,086) (1,136) (546) (388) (542) (645)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 1,813 (1,017) 715 (2,040) 2,934 464
Opening Cash balances 2,660 4,473 3,456 4,172 2,131 5,065
Closing Cash balances 4,473 3,456 4,172 2,131 5,065 5,529
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GAIL | 2QFY2012 Result Update
October 26, 2011 11
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 20.9 19.4 17.3 15.3 13.5 12.0P/CEPS 17.1 16.2 14.7 12.9 11.0 9.6
P/BV 4.2 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1
Dividend yield (%) 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9
EV/Sales 2.8 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3
EV/EBITDA 12.6 12.4 10.6 9.5 7.6 6.6
EV/Total Assets 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.6
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 20.5 22.1 24.8 28.1 31.7 35.6
EPS (fully diluted) 20.5 22.1 24.8 28.1 31.7 35.6
Cash EPS 25.0 26.5 29.2 33.2 39.1 44.8
DPS 6.7 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.0
Book Value 102.5 116.4 133.4 151.8 176.0 203.5
DuPont Analysis (%)
EBIT margin 18.6 14.7 16.4 14.8 16.4 16.5
Tax retention ratio 67.3 66.8 68.6 68.0 67.8 67.3
Asset turnover (x) 1.6 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.7
ROIC (Post-tax) 20.1 18.8 19.2 17.9 17.8 18.4
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) - - - - - -
Leverage (x) - - - - - -
Operating ROE 20.1 18.8 19.2 17.9 17.8 18.4
Returns (%)
ROCE (Pre-tax) 22.6 21.3 22.1 22.4 22.4 22.3
Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 34.0 32.3 38.3 38.1 31.1 28.1
ROE 21.3 20.2 19.8 19.7 19.3 18.7
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.2
Inventory / Sales (days) 11 9 9 8 9 8
Receivables (days) 19 20 20 18 20 18
Payables (days) 77 70 86 69 73 78
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 4 4 (2) (4) (7) (16)
Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.4) (0.3) (0.3) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2)
Net debt to EBITDA (1.2) (1.0) (1.1) (0.4) (0.7) (0.6)
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 42.2 40.3 58.7 58.0 52.5 51.0
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GAIL | 2QFY2012 Result Update
October 26 2011 12
Research Team Tel: 022 – 3935 7800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or inthe past.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, pleaserefer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited andits affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement GAIL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Recommended