GEOSS Benefit Assessment M. Obersteiner @ GEOBENE team(2006-9) PEOIC - Assessing the Impact of...

GEOSS Benefit Assessment

M. Obersteiner @ GEOBENE team(2006-9)

PEOIC - Assessing the Impact of Satellite EO on Society and Policy 9th November 2015

IIASA and GEOSS Benefit assessment

• All SBAs• All parts of the policy cycle• Many methodologies => PWC, Booz…• Portfolios of Observing Systems• VOI book M. Macauley…..

=> Happy to inform PEOIC

GEOSS Projects: GEO-BENE, ENERGEO, EUROGEOSS, GEOCARBON, CROWDLAND, SATIDA, SIGMA/GEOGLAM…

Determinant of GEOSS Value

1. Decision making context2. Risk appetite3. Nature of risk

Example: GEOSS at COP 21

?

REDD

Reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation

Land cover uncertainty

Decision context: Value of Information

New technology in industry = $30/tonC

REDD = $10/tonC if more land available

REDD = $40/tonC if less land available

50%

50%

$30/ton vs. [0.5*$10+0.5*$40]=$25/ton

Decision Context: Value of Information

New technology in industry = $30/tonC

REDD = $10/tonC if more land available

REDD = $40/tonC if less land available

20%

80%

$30/tonC vs. [0.3*$10+0.7*$40]=$34/tonC

Global Integrated Assessment Modelling

• Calculate VoI of improved Land Observing System:

–Uncertainty of land availability–Risk averseness

Land cover uncertainty

10

Land cover uncertainty and REDD

Mill

. Ton

s C

O2/a

Value of Information from better land coverM

ill. $

10%

> 2 bill. $

Risk averseness and REDD

Increasingly risk-averse

Mill

. t C

O2/a

Value of Information and risk averseness

Mill

. $

Increasingly Risk-averse

Conclusions

• The VOI of Global Land Observing System is a fraction of the overall mitigation costs, but is very high in absolute terms– E.g. 2 billion $/a for a 10% decrease of uncertainty

• VOI policy context specific• VOI depends on degree of uncertainty• VOI depends on risk preference

GEOSS VOI and type of decision error

Case of climate adaptation of global food system

Leclere et al., 2015

Adaptation in Agriculture

• Change Crop Management (e.g. irrigation)• Change Crop Type• Change Location of Farm• Change Commodity Trade• …..

The GEOSS impact framework

Leclère et al., 2015

Representative concentration

pathwaysRCPs

∆ RF

Perturbation

General circulation

modelsCMIP5

Climate

Global gridded crop models

GGCMs

Biophysical

∆ T∆ Pr

…Crop

IIASA tools

Global land database

+

∆ Yield∆ Inputs

Global gridded crop models

GGCMsEconomics

∆ Supply∆ Trade∆ Food∆Prices

…

Socio-economic scenario

+

Value of Information

Adaptation and Maladaptation

No CC CC1 CC2 Adaptationsstrategies

Adaptation and Maladaptation

No CC CC1 CC2

CC1 x x x

CC2 x x x

Adaptationsstrategies

What really happens

Adaptation and Maladaptation

No CC CC1 CC2

CC1 No-adapt Adapt Maladapt

CC2 No-adapt Maladapt Adapt

Adaptationsstrategies

What really happens

VOI of a “perfect” climate prediction system

– NO-ADAPT: up to -246 bil. US$/year

– ADAPT: up to -43 bil. US$/year~ / 5

VOI under different adaptation decision errors

– NO-ADAPT: up to -246 bil. US$/year

– ADAPT: up to -43 bil. US$/year

– MALADAPT: up to -470 bil. US$/year

~ / 5

~ x 10

~ x 2

Value of GEOSS is highest when it avoids bad decision ……

……..because the universe of bad decisions is larger than the universe of good decisions!

GEOSS valuation can be done, but needs precise methodology, data and

modelling!!!